2011 11 28 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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    MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

    Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

    Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

    WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

    MA

    S-TERMMULTI-DAY

    L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

    STRATEGY/POSITION

    ENTRYLEVEL

    OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

    EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.3480 1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) 1.3480GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup.USD/CHF Await fresh signal.USD/CAD Exited at 1.0350. Achieved 2 Objectives.AUD/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Awaiting Fresh Signal.EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD SHORT 3 1680 1595/1450/1300 (Entered 23/11/2011) 1740SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880

    DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT28 November, 2011

    Ron William, CMT, MSTA

    Bijoy Kar, CFA

    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry

    point for a near risk-free trade. When the seco nd objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

    published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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    Temporary unwinding from oversold conditions.

    Lowered stop to breakeven, thereby ensuring a risk-free trade.

    EUR/USD is temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions. However, it is

    still likely to see the bearish impulsive move is extend from key overhead

    resistance (primarily a 2 year trend and its long-term 200-day average).

    Bearish sentiment also remains anchored by heightened contagion fears

    driven from the greater European sovereign debt risk.

    A sustained close beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger

    downtrend from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870

    (2011 major low).

    Keep an eye on highly correlated risk-related proxies, such as the S&P500

    and AUD/USD, which both continue to exhibit downside presssures.

    Inversely, the USD Index is extending its recovery higher and is fast

    approaching the recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).

    Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs

    (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain

    strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold

    extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

    Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

    MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3480

    EUR/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    200-DMA(1.4098)

    BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

    BREAKOUTS

    UPTREND(2 YEARS)

    EUR/USD (Daily)

    BREAKOUTZONE(1.4000)

    1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

    +

    -

    USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

    DEMARK

    BUY SIGNAL

    +27% +19%

    TRIGGER(15000)

    COT LIQUIDITY

    +10%SO FAR

    EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

    9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)

    1

    USD

    200-DMA(75.74)

    DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

    BREAKOUT ZONE

    EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

    9 MONTHHIGH

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT28 November, 2011

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    Contained within an hourly channel for now.

    GBP/USD continues to edge lower remaining within the confines of a falling

    channel. A break back over 1.5566 will warn of a larger recovery phase. In

    the meantime, scope is seen for a continuation of weakness. It is preferred

    to wait for a break lower, under the support of the falling channel, before we

    attempt to capitalise on a possible recovery. Should any such weakness fail

    to gain momentum, we will then look to buy into a recovery.

    This scenario is also supported by the generally rangebound nature of the

    market in the medium-term timeframe, favouring a return to 1.6167.

    A sustained break under 1.5272 is required to turn the medium-term bias

    decidedly bearish.

    We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in our formulationof strategy.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    GBP/USD

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Minor rebound, but downside risks remain.

    USD/JPY is experiencing a minor rebound. However, downside risks

    remain, with the growing probability of another price retracement back to

    pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even a new post world warrecord low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

    Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that

    USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market

    continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.

    This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

    psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

    would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

    which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

    The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

    major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

    points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

    move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

    Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

    Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

    Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    82.00

    83.30

    USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)

    QUAKESHOCK!

    POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

    POSTG7

    MOVE (I)HIGH

    PIR II

    80.24

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (II)HIGH

    DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (III)HIGH

    PIR III

    MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL

    USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

    ENDINGDIAGONAL

    PATTERNANTICIPATE

    SBREAKOUT(85-79)

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf
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    Break over 0.9316 strengthens medium-term outlook.

    USD/CHF saw a break back over 0.9316 last week. This structural break

    over the October high strengthens the medium term structure. However,

    scope is seen for a corrective phase lower, with resistance anticipated close

    to 0.9600, should further strength follow. As mentioned last week, demand

    for Swiss Francs is likely to continue while yields on Spanish and Italian

    government bonds remain elevated, currently trading at 6.667% and 7.111%

    respectively.

    On the left we show the German sovereign yield curve (solid line),

    compared with the same yield curve one week ago. This shows a

    deterioration in the way in which the core Euro-Zone bond market is

    perceived by the market as a whole. If yields in Germany continue to rise

    this will likely mark an acceleration of deterioration in the Euro Zone.

    A break under hourly channel support, currently at 0.9205 not weakens the

    near-term outlook. Under 0.9085 will warn of a larger corrective phase

    lower.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    German yield curve comparison, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    USD/CHF

    USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Sharp Setbacks.

    Exited at 1.0350, having achieved 2 price objectives on long position.

    USD/CAD has triggered a sharp setback, following last weeks strong bull

    charge.

    A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the

    recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

    rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

    Only a sustained close beneath 1.0230 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

    into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9844 and 0.9726 (31st Aug low).

    EUR/CAD is still holding above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month

    trading range. key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

    CHF/CAD is now retesting its 200-day MA at 1.1363, while maintaining a

    multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide lower (which

    was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced

    more than half of its 2011 gains.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Exited at 1.0350. Achieved 2 Objectives.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/CAD

    CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

    OPENSLARGER

    DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

    USD/CAD (Daily)

    MAJOR RESISTANCE

    50%(1.3570)

    61.8%(1.3379)

    EUR/CAD (Daily)

    REVERSALPATTERN

    CHF/CAD (Daily)

    50%(1.1488)

    61.8%(1.0893)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Unwinding from oversold conditions.

    AUD/USD is still attempting to unwind f rom oversold conditions, following its

    accelerated decline through the 1.0000 psychological level.

    The move must be sustained below 1.0000 to further compound downside

    pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

    Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

    dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

    day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon.

    The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now

    trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 82.67.

    Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal

    further unwinding of risk appetite.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting Renewed Sell Trade Setup.

    AUD/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    200-DMA

    (82.76)

    13

    38.2%(76.70)

    61.8%

    (68.47)

    50%(72.58)

    AUD/JPY(Daily)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    RESUMPTION OF

    BREAKDOWNADDS TO

    RISK AVERSION

    REVERINGINTO

    200-DMA

    AUD/NZD(Daily)

    KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

    AUD/USD(Weekly)

    38.2%(0.9144)

    50%(0.8546)

    61.8%(0.7947)

    3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER

    PRESSURE

    STRUCTURALLEVEL

    KEYZONE

    AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

    DEMARKSELLSIGNALS

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Break out of hourly bear channel, suggests a corrective phase.

    GBP/JPY may be entering a corrective phase higher following the break out

    of hourly bear channel resistance. With this in mind, a higher low is

    anticipated ahead of 119.38, should a short-term pullback take place. This

    is also supported by the minor recovery seen in equities globally and in

    particular in the S&P500.

    However, while under the hourly high at 121.77 the near-term negative

    structure is maintained.

    Although a recovery phase is now favoured, further signs of continued

    strength are sought ahead of strategy formulation.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    GBP/JPY

    GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Enters into a near-term corrective phase.

    EUR/JPY continues to grind lower after failing to hold the extension higher

    that occurred at the end of October. In fact the fall that has taken place

    since 111.60 has the appearance of a corrective phase, suggesting scope

    for a further leg higher. The break out of the hourly falling channel that has

    taken place during the most recent session is now suggestive of a larger

    corrective phase higher.

    However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the

    movement in EUR/USD. As the yields in Spanish and Italian government

    bonds continue to rise, this puts more downside pressure on the EUR. A

    break under 1.3146 in the EUR/USD will end the rising phase seen since

    2010. This would likely be associated with a fall back down to 100.76 and

    potentially lower.

    A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-

    term outlook more bullish.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/JPY

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Bias remains bearish.

    EUR/GBP continues to frustrate, failing to garner any momentum following

    the recent break of the key 0.8530/31 lows. Given the precarious situation

    in the Euro-Zone, our mild bearish bias remains, favouring an eventual

    return to weakness if German sovereign debt continues to be sold off. It is

    anticipated that if the deterioration in the Euro-Zone continues then Sterling

    could be viewed as a safe haven. Thus focus remains on the Italian and

    Spanish government bond markets too.

    An eventual fall back under 0.8486 is anticipated. With this in mind, the

    formulation of a short strategy is still favoured, although a deeper pullback of

    the 0.8831-0.8486 fall is required ahead of entry.

    Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200

    day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in

    EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of

    confidence in the EUR.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Look to sell higher.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Range bound between 1.2131 and 1.2474. Breakout sought.

    EUR/CHF is maintaining its tight trading range just under the 1.2500 level.

    It is anticipated that this zone may see a degree of resistance, particularly in

    light of the movement in periphery yield spreads versus bunds. Over time,

    this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure

    returning to EUR/CHF.

    We would prefer to trade this from a momentum perspective, awaiting a

    return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place

    with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the

    recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this

    level.

    Short-term structure continues to be suggestive of a further rise back

    towards the 1.2500 zone, where further resistance would be expected.

    It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of

    funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet

    higher yields in Italian/Spanish/French government bonds.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND

    Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

    EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CHF

    EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Remains negative beneath 1800.

    Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at 1800. The

    bearish move is starting to be anchored once again by Golds last dramatic

    20% capitulation.

    There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

    close beneath $1600/98 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not

    been breached in 3 years!

    Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a

    key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

    positions.

    A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

    benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

    lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still

    offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

    Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

    Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

    Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 3: 1680, Obj:1595/1450/1300, Stop: 1740

    GOLD

    Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

    I

    RISK ZONE III

    CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000

    26%

    34%

    20%SO FAR

    25%

    II

    COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

    OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

    GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

    IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

    200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

    DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

    BREAKOUT

    $1704

    $1600

    DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

    GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

    $1532

    DOUBLETOP

    $1760

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf
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    Key support at $30.0000.

    Silver is weakening back into 30.0000 and the previous swing low at

    26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks,

    following the major sell-off in September.

    Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

    allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed

    buying interest.

    Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

    multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

    Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

    term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

    resumption higher.

    Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

    higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

    SILVER

    Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    BULLMARKET

    FROM1999

    Silver Monthly (since 1980)

    13

    38.2%(32.3135)

    50%(26.9150)

    61.8%

    (21.5165)

    I

    II

    OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN

    Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    13 YEAR LEVEL

    UNWINDING 67%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

    Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

    KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

    Silver (Daily)

    200 DMA(36.5125)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

    unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT28 November, 2011

    www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

    MIG [email protected]

    14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

    Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

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