2011 11 10 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

8/3/2019 2011 11 10 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.3655 1.3140/1.2860 (Entered 09/11/2011) 1.3655

GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.5840 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 1.5740

USD/JPY Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF Short stopped. Possibly looking to re-sell.

USD/CAD LONG 3 1.0250 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) 1.0050

AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0570 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0470

GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 122.70 124.10/126.00/127.32 121.30

EUR/JPY SHORT 2 106.45 104.00/100.76 (Entered 09/11/2011) 106.45

EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8555 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068 0.8655

EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230

GOLD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT10 November, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.



2

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 10 November, 2011

www.migbank.com

Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.

First objective met, stop moved to entry.

EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance

(primarily an important 2 year trend-line). The dramatic move has confirmed

the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had anticipated, which has been

driven by recent positive EU News.

Yesterday’s break under 1.3653 (18th

Oct low) unlocks further downside

scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level

at 1.3000.

Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro

currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now

falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.

Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day

MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80.

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent

spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely

remain strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic

oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”

US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 2: 1.3655, Objs: 1.3140/1.2860, Stop: 1.3655.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA (1.4104)

BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

BREAKOUTS

UPTREND(2 YEARS)

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUTZONE

(1.4000)

SHARP REVERSALAT KEY RESISTANCE

TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870

+

-

USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

+10%SO FAR

3 STD ABOVEONE YEARAVERAGE

EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

9

13

USD INDEX

200-DMA(75.72)

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

6 MONTHHIGH

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embedded


http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54




http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/

mailto:[email protected]










3


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Approaches a region of potential support.

A break back over the 1.6167 high would lead us to remove the strategy

below from the report.

GBP/USD failed to break over the recent high at 1.6167, maintaining our

structural argument that the rise from 1.5877 is a corrective. Scope is now

seen for a break back under 1.5877 ahead of a possible higher low versus

1.5632 for a fresh swing back towards 1.6167.

Medium term structure is dominated by a generally range bound

environment, with a return to the highs of the annual range possible, near

1.6618/1.6747. Our bias remains positive due to the near-term bullish

structure that is in place.

While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this regionfails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negative

again.

Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should that the US Dollar

enter into a strengthening phase.


Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







4


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Probability now favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

USD/JPY is edging lower, with the probability now favouring another price

retracement back to pre-intervention levels and potentially even a new post

world war record low beneath 75.35.

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try

and be the first to call the market bottom.

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders.

The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

pints to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term

technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark™ exhaustion signals, within

the ending diagonal pattern, which is part of the long-term cycle.

Please select the link below to review our MIG Bank webinar on USD/JPY.

This is a featured update to our previous Special Report

USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change


Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

83.30

USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)

QUAKE

SHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

POSTG7

MOVE (I)HIGH

82.00

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW 75.35

POSTBOJ

MOVE (III)HIGH

MONTHLY DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 – 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNBREAKOUT

TARGET (85-79)

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdf



http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21










5


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Rise from 0.8568 still viewed as corrective.

Short stopped at 0.9130.

USD/CHF has met 0.9151 thus far, leading to our short position being

stopped. This may have completed a symmetrical correction from the low at

0.8568. We now wait to see if the 0.9151 low can contain price on the

upside. Also, if a break under 0.8923 can be realised then this would

increase the probability of a return to weakness.

While below 0.9316, medium-term structure is suggestive of a re-test of the

zone close to 0.8242, ahead of a possible return to 0.9316. However,

should EUR/CHF reach the 1.2000 level again, then movement in USD/CHF

may be affected by the efforts of the SNB to maintain the floor in EUR/CHF.

Back under 0.7712 is required to change the medium-term bullish bias.

Safe haven flows may yet intensify into the Swiss Franc as Italian

government bond yields push higher despite last week’s ECB rate cut. See

our EUR/CHF page for more on this.


Short stopped. Possibly looking to re-sell for a return to 0.8242.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







6


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Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.

USD/CAD’s short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp

bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).

Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the

potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at

1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone).

Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the

long-term 200-day MA at 0.9817 and 0.9726 (31st

Aug low).

A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-monthtrading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),

which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1314,

following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention).

The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.


Long 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050


USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Weekly)

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENS LARGERRECOVERY

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

USD/CAD (Daily)

August High(1.0673)

200-DMA(0.9817)

200-DMA(1.3841)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

50% (1.3570)

61.8% (1.3379)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(1.1314)

50%

(1.1488)

61.8% (1.0893)







7


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Sharp setbacks weigh.

AUD/USD’s sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered

from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath

the 200-day MA (1.0415).

A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the

rate’s multi-year uptrend.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar.

The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.

The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now

trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11.

Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18th Oct low). A break here

will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk

appetite.


SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470

AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

200-DMA

(83.12)

13

38.2% (76.70)

61.8%

(68.47)

50% (72.58)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL

RESUMPTION OF

BREAKDOWNADDS TO

RISK AVERSION

AUD/USD (Weekly)

38.2%

(0.9144)

50% (0.8546)

61.8% (0.7947)

3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER

PRESSURE

STRUCTURALLEVEL

KEYZONE

AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS

200-DMA(1.0413)







8


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Approaches a region where support is anticipated.

GBP/JPY is approaching a region where a degree of support would be

anticipated, just ahead of the 122.38/65 platform. Should a fall down to

these levels be realised, this would also potentially complete the corrective

structure that has been witnessed since 127.32.

In the very short-term it appears that a possible exhaustion pattern may be

forming, although a final swing lower towards 123.00 remains viable.

Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily

structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to

negate this positive structure.


Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







9


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Breakout realised targeting 104.00 initially.

First objective met, stop moved to entry.

EUR/JPY formed a corrective structure in the hourly timeframe and has

subsequently broken under 106.50. This now triggers the bearish flag thatwe had seen in the daily timeframe, warning of further losses towards

104.00 and possibly lower.

Trade is currently finding some interim support close to the 61.8% retrace of

the 100.76 – 111.60 rise, where scope is seen for a possible shallow retrace

to form.

Structure present since 108.25 also suggests scope for a further leg lower

back towards 100.76 if a sustained break under 104.75 can be achieved.

A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlook

bullish.


SHORT 2 at 106.45, Objs:104.00/100.76, Stop: 106.45

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY







10


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Breaks under long-term trend-line support.

EUR/GBP has seen a break under long-term trend-line support from 0.8068.

In doing so we have now broken under the recent range, breaking the old

double bottom at 0.8530/31. Assuming that the break can be held, this now

warns of a larger fall to target 0.8285/0.8068. Such a move will be assisted

by the perception of Sterling as a safe haven, assuming the yields of Italian

government bonds can stay elevated.

A rise higher is now anticipated in the short term to re-test the old floor as a

possible ceiling.

In the near-term, a break back over 0.8652 is required to neutralise the

outlook once again. In the meantime a lower high is sought for a further

extension lower.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP








11


www.migbank.com

Continued resistance expected close to 1.2500.

EUR/CHF has remained strong particularly in light of the movement in

Italian government bond markets, where a minor inversion in the yield curve

is beginning to form, with 5 year yields trading above 10 year yields, at the

time of writing. Also, as mentioned before, it highlights the inability of the

ECB to contain sovereign debt yields by simply lowering the base rate. This

may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure

returning to EUR/CHF.

Initial resistance has been seen close to the recent high at 1.2474, with

scope for a further correction, towards 1.2300 initially. Should a re-test of

the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this

would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the

probability of a return to this level.

In any case, strong resistance is anticipated should this rate reach the

1.2500 zone. The recent failure to maintain trade above the 50 week

moving average is also noted.

Time will tell whether or not the SNB will be able to hold back the possible

flow of funds into Swiss Francs that may occur if further stresses lead to yet

higher yields in Italian government bonds.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP








12


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Breaking above $1760 is positive for the short-term.

Gold remains fragile after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm

the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark™ indicators). This

also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling.

However, short-term price activity is building constructively higher above key

level at 1760. A sustained move above here would open moves into 1844.

Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a

key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions.

There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not

been breached in 3 years!

A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still

offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)


Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

GOLD

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)

I

RISK ZONE III

CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530

UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000

26%

34%

20%SO FAR

25%

II

COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK™ SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLD’S OVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

BREAKOUT

$1704

$1600

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

$1532

DOUBLETOP

$1760

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FA




http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.html



http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840









http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202






13


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Key support at $26.0700.

Silver’s latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment

community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time

silver has crashed, following its 30% fall last April.

The move was triggered following a DeMark™ exhaustion sell signal and

has now wiped out almost 50% of silver’s prior gains (taken from Silver’s all-

time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.

Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed

buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated

higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.


SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold /Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2% (32.3135)

50% (26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165)

I

II

OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(36.5125)







14


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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS



15


www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]



http://www.migbank.com/





http://www.migbank.com/



Documents

2011 11 10 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report