16 SOCIO ECONOMIC AND TOURISM … Review of Socio-Economic Impact of Wind Farms in the UK (2002-2012) ... 16 SOCIO ECONOMIC AND TOURISM ASSESSMENT 16.1 Introduction

Environmental Statement South Kyle Wind Farm August 2013

Volume 2 of 5 Chapter 16 Socio-economic and Tourism

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16 SOCIO ECONOMIC AND TOURISM ASSESSMENT .............................................. 3 16.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 3 16.2 Guidance .............................................................................................................. 3 16.2.1 Establishing Potential Impacts on Tourism and Recreation within an Area ........ 3 16.3 Data Sources ........................................................................................................ 4 16.4 Methodology ......................................................................................................... 4 16.4.1 Agreed Methodology and Scope of Works ........................................................ 4 16.4.2 Consultation Process ........................................................................................ 4 16.4.3 Baseline Assessment ........................................................................................ 5 16.4.4 Impact Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 16.4.5 Definition and Assessment of Socio Economic Impact ...................................... 6 16.4.6 Definition and Assessment of Tourism & Recreation Impact ............................. 7 16.4.7 Significance of Impact ....................................................................................... 9 16.4.8 Scoping and Consultation Process .................................................................... 10 16.2 Socio Economic Profile ......................................................................................... 15 16.2.1 Travel to Work Area .......................................................................................... 15 16.2.2 Economic Development and Strategy Review ................................................... 16 16.2.3 Socio-Economic Profile ..................................................................................... 19 16.3 Tourism Context ................................................................................................... 25 16.3.1 Tourism Volume and Value ............................................................................... 25 16.3.2 Profile of Tourism .............................................................................................. 25 16.3.3 UK Trips and Expenditure ................................................................................. 27 16.3.4 Overseas Trips and Expenditure ....................................................................... 28 16.3.5 Day Trips ........................................................................................................... 29 16.3.6 Purpose of Trip.................................................................................................. 30 16.3.7 Accommodation ................................................................................................ 30 16.3.8 Occupancy ........................................................................................................ 32 16.3.9 Summary ........................................................................................................... 33 16.4 Tourism and Recreation Audit............................................................................... 33 16.4.1 Identification of Principal Facilities ..................................................................... 33 16.4.2 Audit .................................................................................................................. 33 16.4.3 Principal Settlements......................................................................................... 34 16.4.4 Principal Tourist Routes .................................................................................... 35 16.4.5 Horse riding ....................................................................................................... 36 16.4.6 Golf Courses ..................................................................................................... 36 16.4.7 Leisure Centres ................................................................................................. 36 16.4.8 Fishing .............................................................................................................. 37 16.4.9 Estates .............................................................................................................. 37 16.4.10 Gardens and Designated Landscapes .............................................................. 37 16.4.11 Events ............................................................................................................... 38 16.4.12 Visitor Attractions .............................................................................................. 38 16.4.13 Nature Reserves ............................................................................................... 39 16.4.14 Accommodation ................................................................................................ 39 16.5 Tourism Business Survey ..................................................................................... 39 16.5.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 39 16.5.2 Location of Respondents ................................................................................... 40 16.5.3 Type of Business ............................................................................................... 40 16.5.4 Profile of Customers .......................................................................................... 41 16.5.5 Visitor Origin ..................................................................................................... 41 16.5.6 Origin of Customer Booking .............................................................................. 42 16.5.7 Main Activities undertaken by Customers/Visitors ............................................. 42 16.5.8 Business Performance ...................................................................................... 43 16.5.9 Factors Influencing Business ............................................................................. 44 16.5.10 Annual Turnover ................................................................................................ 45



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16.5.11 Accommodation Businesses Occupancy Rates................................................. 45 16.6 Review of Socio-Economic Impact of Wind Farms in the UK (2002-2012) ............ 46 16.6.1 Review of ‘The Economic Impacts of Wind Farms in Scottish Tourism’ (2008) 46 16.6.2 Most Recent Research on Wind Farms Effects on the Landscape & Tourism ... 47 16.6.3 Post Development Evaluation of Built Infrastructure Impact on Tourism ............ 48 16.6.4 Research shows Improvement in Recreational Facilities Encourages Greater Usage by Walkers Visitors and other Users ........................................................ 49 16.6.5 The Scottish Parliament , Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee, 7th Report 2012. Report on the achievability of the Scottish Government’s renewable energy targets ................................................................................................................. 50 16.6.6 Conclusion from Comparative Assessment ....................................................... 51 16.7 Assessment of Potential Impacts .......................................................................... 51 16.7.1 Construction Phase Impacts .............................................................................. 51 16.7.2 Operation and Maintenance Phase Impacts ...................................................... 53 16.7.3 Decommissioning Phase Impacts...................................................................... 54 16.7.4 Wider Socio-economic Benefits ......................................................................... 56 16.7.5 Community Benefit Fund ................................................................................... 56 16.7.6 Business Rates Revenue Benefits .................................................................... 57 16.7.7 Land Owner Reinvestment Benefits .................................................................. 57 16.7.8 Mitigation and Monitoring .................................................................................. 57 16.7.9 Cumulative and Residual Effects ....................................................................... 59 16.7.10 Summary ........................................................................................................... 60 16.8 Tourism and Recreational impact ......................................................................... 61 16.8.1 Impact Assessment ........................................................................................... 61 16.8.2 Assessment of Impact on Tourism Business Prospects .................................... 61 16.8.3 Impact on Tourist and Recreational Resources ................................................. 65 16.8.4 Tourism & Recreation Mitigation ....................................................................... 70 16.8.5 Overall Conclusion ............................................................................................ 72



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16 SOCIO ECONOMIC AND TOURISM ASSESSMENT

16.1 Introduction

1 This chapter assesses the potential socio-economic, tourism and recreation impacts and effects that could occur as a result of the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm. This includes potential adverse effects on the local tourism economy, business interests and tourism interests; and the potential positive effects on the local economy in terms of income and job creation along with the economic benefit of the proposed community benefit fund related to the proposed development.

16.2 Guidance

2 The methodology for the socioeconomic impact assessment follows guidance in Her Majesty’s Treasury’s ‘Green Book for Economic Appraisal and Evaluation’1, and good practice guidance for economic assessment used by both the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise.

16.2.1 Establishing Potential Impacts on Tourism and Recreation within an Area

3 There are no specific guidelines or requirements for tourism and recreation assessment either set out by The Electricity Works (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Scotland) Regulations 2000 or in other statutory or advisory guidance on the preparation of Environmental Impact Assessments.

4 However, the methodology used in this assessment has been employed in a number of other development projects throughout Scotland and is similar to that used in assessing the effects of infrastructure development on local economies. The approach has been robustly tested and accepted as valid throughout the development process and at public inquiry, and has also been the subject of testing with consultees.

5 The tourism impact assessment component follows the generally accepted industry standard set out in the recommendations of the 2008 ‘Economic Impacts of Wind Farms on Scottish Tourism Study’ research for the Scottish Government2, which called for an assessment of the:

number of tourists travelling past en route elsewhere

impacts on views from tourist accommodation in the area

relative scale of tourism impact – local to national

potential positive impacts

impacts on outdoor activities in the are

1 ‘The Green Book Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government’, HM Treasury (2003) http://www.hm-

treasury.gov.uk/d/green_book_complete.pdf

2 The economic impacts of wind farms on Scottish tourism, a report for the Scottish Government (2008)

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/03/07113554/0

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/green_book_complete.pdf

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/green_book_complete.pdf

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/03/07113554/0



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6 In terms of the sub-elements of tourism and recreation, outdoor access impact assessment is covered by guidance contained within Scottish Natural Heritage’s publication ‘A Handbook on Environmental Impact Assessment’ (February 2006) Appendix 53. Examples of potential outdoor access impacts of wind farms are set out in the publication’s Appendix 5 Table 4.

7 Appendix 5, Table 4 under ‘wind farms’ also highlights that these “can change perception and amenity of both area and linear facilities through visual and noise impacts, access tracks can interfere with/or facilitate public access, general deterrent/attractor effects.” This impact assessment highlights such impacts and effects where appropriate.

16.3 Data Sources

8 The assessment includes an extensive review of information sources to establish existing conditions and to identify current tourism and recreation businesses and resources as well as tourism and recreational activities in the survey area. The assessment uses standard socioeconomic and demographic data from available datasets, including the 2001 census, NOMIS the Office for National Statistics website, and standard sources of tourist and visitor data found on Visit Scotland’s website, and other individual research, reports. A list of references is provided in Chapter 23 References.

16.4 Methodology

16.4.1 Agreed Methodology and Scope of Works

9 The assessment methodology employs a combination of web-based, desk-based and visual surveys, information assessment and analysis. The overall methodology and scope of works has been tested and agreed through the process of scoping and consultation. It has the following stages:

consultation process

baseline assessment

impact assessment

16.4.2 Consultation Process

10 A consultation process with key consultees and local stakeholders has informed this assessment. A list of consultees is provided in Table 16.2.

11 The consultation process initially identified key consultees and local stakeholders able to provide data and offer their views on key issues affecting the area. A letter was then sent informing consultees of the background, purpose, remit and scope of the assessment, eliciting their views on key issues in the area, and seeking any useful data from them.

3 http://www.snh.org.uk/pdfs/publications/heritagemanagement/EIA.pdf

http://www.snh.org.uk/pdfs/publications/heritagemanagement/EIA.pdf



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16.4.3 Baseline Assessment

12 The baseline assessment includes the socioeconomic baseline, tourism assessment and an audit of recreational facilities and activities. This is placed in context by an assessment of comparative research on the tourism and recreational impacts of wind farm developments elsewhere. A review of principal policy and strategy documents has also been completed, further describing the context for socio-economic, tourism and recreational activity in the study area.

13 The socioeconomic baseline details key issues, trends and the performance of the East Ayrshire and Dumfries & Galloway Council areas relative to Scotland and the UK.

14 This tourism assessment profiles:

visitor and tourist trends

tourism volume and value

visitor patterns

visitor accommodation occupancy rates

expenditure patterns

tourism employment

the drivers currently impacting upon the industry both nationally and locally

15 This sets the context for the remainder of the appraisal, and a baseline against which potential impacts can be set. This research is supported by a summary of the baseline data from the business survey.

16 A baseline audit of tourism activities, patterns, trends, and facilities at East Ayrshire and Dumfries & Galloway Council area level has been prepared. The audit covers aspects which make up the tourism product in the area, act as a focus or attraction for visitors, and lead to expenditure by tourists and visitors. Visitor expenditure and its employment and related effects are the main constituents of economic impact in the tourist sector in the area. Potential impacts on recreational users have also been assessed. The areas covered include:

tourist accommodation – including Bed & Breakfasts (B&Bs) and guest houses, caravanning, hotels, and camping: their business prospects, visitor profile, and potential business impacts and effects

visitor attractions, facilities, and destinations including - archaeological sites, cultural facilities, sports, recreation, and leisure facilities: their market, performance and business impacts and effects

visitor activities – including walking, fishing, country pursuits, wildlife interests, and sports: their potential profile, prospects, and business impacts and effects

visitor and tourist routes – including driving, cycling, walking, bridleways, and rights of way: their visitor numbers, patterns of activity and potential focal points of spend

17 A summary of the key factors affecting tourism trends and the key drivers influencing the market has also been provided.



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18 A review of research elsewhere into the impacts and effects of wind farms on tourism and recreational visitors/users was completed to provide a comparative assessment of impact from previous experience. This is drawn from a wide range of research sources across the UK, but mostly from Scottish experience, including ex-ante (before the event) appraisals of potential impact and ex-post (after the event) assessments of observed impacts.

16.4.4 Impact Assessment

19 For impact assessment purposes the study area is defined by a 15 km radius from the proposed wind farm boundary as significant impacts and effects are likely to be restricted to areas of visibility within 15 km of the site (as indicated in Chapter 9 Landscape and Visual Impact Assessment ). The catchment is taken to include all settlements within this radius and the intermediate and adjacent areas between settlements which might be considered to have linked visitor patterns. Also included are facilities, notable points of focus, or visitor attractions located in this catchment. Significant tourism or recreation facilities located just outside the boundary of the study area have also been included.

16.4.5 Definition and Assessment of Socio Economic Impact

20 The principal socio-economic assessment criteria relate to the employment impacts within the study area. These impacts are defined in terms of Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs and the Gross Value Added (GVA) generated by those jobs. The assessment has therefore focussed on the following major impact categories:

Direct economic impacts: jobs and GVA that are wholly or largely related to construction, decommissioning, and operation and maintenance of the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm and generated in the study area.

Indirect economic impacts (positive and negative): jobs and GVA generated in the economy of the study area in the chain of suppliers of goods and services to the direct activities.

Induced economic impacts: jobs and GVA created by direct and indirect employees’ spending in the study area or in the wider economy.

Wider economic (catalytic) impacts (positive and negative): employment and income generated in the economy related to the wider role of the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm in influencing economic activities (including wider socio-economic effects below). This will include the effects on inward investment, elsewhere within the construction sector (e.g. as a result of worker supply) and on other sectors of the economy.

21 Potential impacts from the construction, operation and decommissioning of the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm are identified and their significance assessed with regard to the sensitivity of receptors and the magnitude of the effect.



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16.4.5.1 Sensitivity of Receptor

22 For economic impacts and effects (including employment), the availability of labour and skills is critical in accommodating the demands, needs and requirements of the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm. Adequate capacity results in a low sensitivity, while limited capacity results in a high sensitivity. Sensitivity criteria are shown below (Table 16.1).

Table 16.1 Receptor Sensitivity

Sensitivity Definition

High Where there is a low/limited availability of labour and skills

Medium Where there is a constrained supply of labour and skills

Low Where there is a readily available labour force and skills

16.4.5.2 Magnitude of Effect

23 A level of impact significance has been ascribed based on the information on both the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm socio-economic outputs and also the baseline structure of the area. In economic terms, the key socio-economic receptors are: the participants within the labour force; and the level of occupational skills available in the study area.

24 The magnitude of the effect of potential impacts on socio-economic receptors will be assessed as defined in Table 16.2.

Table 16.2 Magnitude of Effect

Magnitude Factors in the assessment of the magnitude of effect

Major

Impacts of the project of greater than local scale or which exceed recognised standards

Moderate

Noticeable impacts of the project that may be judged to be important at a local scale

Minor Slight impacts of the project that may be judged to be of minor importance

Negligible Where impact is not discernible

16.4.6 Definition and Assessment of Tourism & Recreation Impact

25 Tourism and recreational behaviour will only be detrimentally affected where the impact of the proposed development either changes the visitor/user pattern in terms of numbers, and /or their patterns of expenditure for the worse. As such, opportunities for tourist and visitor expenditure, any potential variation in expenditure or visitor numbers, and consequent effects on



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turnover or employment are of key importance. This impact assessment highlights such impacts and effects.

26 A business survey was carried out to gain a more detailed understanding of the local tourism economy and its performance. We identified 75 of the key visitor accommodation providers, leisure activity providers and other relevant organisations (those contacted are listed in Appendix 16.1, Volume 5). The business survey achieved a 45% (34) response rate.

27 Facilities or notable points of focus in the study area have been identified. Based upon the wind farms anticipated visibility, comment is provided on the likelihood of the proposed wind farm influencing visitor and tourist attitudes and behaviour towards these visitor facilities and locations.

28 Recreational behaviour will be affected where a development potentially leads to a change in recreational habits or activities. Factors which might lead to change in recreational behaviour include loss, closure, or diversion of routes; obstructing access routes; enhancing access; reduction in amenity or intrusion; enhancement in amenity; and changes in setting and context of the recreational resource4.

29 The scale of potential impact on recreational users is likely to be a factor of the proximity of the wind farm, significance of the resource in terms of usage and the type of resource e.g. a town centre indoor recreational facility compared to a hill top view point, visibility of the wind farm from the resource at all points and diversion due to the wind farm’s presence.

30 The significance of both tourism and recreation impacts will be determined through an understanding of the sensitivity of a receptor and the anticipated magnitude of effect.

16.4.6.1 Sensitivity of Receptor

31 In determining the level of tourism & recreation sensitivity, the standing of the receptor or resource is the defining factor. The main factors considered relevant when defining the sensitivity of receptors are outlined in Table 16.3.

Table 16.3 Receptor Sensitivity

High Where the receptor or resource is defined as being of International or National status or high visitor numbers

Medium Where the receptor or resource is defined as being of regional status or medium visitors numbers

Low Where the receptor or resource is defined as being of local status or low visitor numbers

4 SNH Handbook Appendix 5 Table 2 http://www.snh.org.uk/pdfs/publications/heritagemanagement/EIA.pdf

http://www.snh.org.uk/pdfs/publications/heritagemanagement/EIA.pdf



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16.4.6.2 Magnitude of Effect

32 Magnitude of effect will be gauged by estimating the amount of change on the receptor arising from the scheme. The magnitude of change will be evaluated in line with the criteria below (Table 16.4).

Table 16.4 Magnitude of Effect

Major

Where the extent of effects on receptors (activities, resources, or businesses) is large scale and a large number of people or activities will be affected; or where there is an obvious view of the Project with potential to cause significant impact

Moderate

Where the extent of effects on receptors is small in scale, but a large number of people or activities will be affected; or alternatively this will be where the extent of impacts on activities, resources and/or businesses is large in scale but only a small number of people or activities will be affected

Minor

Where the extent of effects on receptors is small in scale and will only affect a small number of people or activities; or where the Project would be unlikely to be visible (as it would be obscured by hills or woodland, etc) or would be at a distance, therefore the magnitude of effect would be minor.

Negligible Where impacts on receptors would be negligible

16.4.7 Significance of Impact

33 In line with standard EIA practice, the sensitivity of receptors, as defined in Table 16.1 Receptor Sensitivity (Socio-economic) and Table 16.3 Receptor Sensitivity (Tourism & Recreation) are considered against the Magnitude of Effect (Tables 16.2 and 16.4) to determine the significance of impact (Table 16.5).

Table 16.5 Matrix of Sensitivity and Magnitude

Sensitivity of receptor

High Medium Low

Magnitude of the effect

Major Major significance

Major or moderate significance

Moderate significance

Moderate Major or moderate significance

Moderate significance

Minor significance

Minor Moderate significance

Minor significance

Minor significance

Negligible Not significant

Not significant

Not significant



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Table 16.6 Impact Significance

Impact significance scale Definition

Major significance The value of the receptor and the magnitude of effects are predicted to give rise to impacts that are fundamental and may be material in the decision-making process.

Moderate significance The value of the receptor and the magnitude of effects are predicted to give rise to impacts that are material but not fundamental and alone are not likely to be material in the decision-making process.

Minor significance The value of the receptor and the magnitude of effects are predicted to give rise to impacts that are detectable but alone are not likely to be material in the decision-making process.

Negligible The value of the receptor and the magnitude of effect are not predicted to give rise to impacts that are detectable or outside the norms of variations.

16.4.8 Scoping and Consultation Process

34 The responses to the consultation process received to date are set out and summarised in Table 16.7.



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Table 16.7 Responses to Consultation Process

Consultee Response Comments

East Ayrshire Council

No -

Dumfries & Galloway Council

No -

Outdoor Access Officer - East Ayrshire Council

No -

Outdoor Access Officer - Dumfries & Galloway Council

No -

Visit Scotland Forestry Commission (Galloway Forest District)

No -

Mountaineering Council

No -

Ramblers Association Scotland

No -

Scottish Cycling Union

No -

Scottish Estates Business Group

No -

Scottish Rural Business Property Association

Yes The proposed method statement to be used during the EIA process seems to be appropriate and we have nothing further to add.

Scottish Mountaineering Club

No -

SNH Yes The methodology described in the attached ‘Environmental Impact Assessment Socio-Economic, Tourism and Recreation Impact Assessment Method Statement’ is generic in nature, but in terms of the scope is comprehensive. Due to the general descriptions given it is not clear what information exactly will be gathered. From SNH perspective we assume the following will be addressed in the ES: The location of all recreational facilities such as Craigengillan House, Dumfries house, Southern Uplands Long Distance Route, any other long distance routes likely to be affected, the ‘Standing Arches’ features, local recreational routes and paths which are signed or included in local access leaflets and core paths published by the planning authorities. Assessment should include the cumulative impact this proposal will have on the recreational experience of users of these facilities in combination with other similar large scale development such as other wind farms , built, consented, at application stage or at scoping or



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other publicly consulted stage, or major rural development such as surface mining. The method statement states that an assessment will be assessed on the basis of potential physical disturbance to the users of or severance of the recreational resource, and visual impact of the proposals upon the users of the recreational resources. It is particularly important to understand the impact on those involved in tourism or access activity which relies of the scenic quality as a setting for such pursuits. The issue of recreational experience should be included in the evaluation criteria.

The Scottish Ornithologists Club

No -

Sport Scotland Yes Please ensure that you consult with relevant governing and other representative bodies of sport. At this site there could be a range of sport interests including walking, cycling and horse riding. We note in particular that the site lies close to the Southern Upland Way. All of the governing bodies for relevant activities should be consulted. Local and national clubs for these activities should also be consulted. Scottish governing bodies can advise on who best to approach. The Local Authority sports development, outdoor education and access officers should be asked for their views, as should the local access forum. The local Scottish Natural Heritage area office may also be able to provide a view on access and recreation in that area.

Sustrans Scotland Yes I wish to confirm that Sustrans Scotland has no existing routes in the area of the proposed wind farm and no plans to develop any cycling or walking routes in the vicinity of the development site. However, we have an interest in maintaining and improving cycling and walking infrastructure all across Scotland. Therefore we have the following comments: Comments: Signed diversions should be provided if any roads or tracks used by the public are closed off during construction. Any existing paths affected by the construction should be returned to their original condition or better by the developer. The safety of all road users must be considered during and post-construction, especially the most vulnerable road users, such as walkers, cyclists and equestrians. Road and track users should be advised of the presence of heavy vehicles during construction.



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Post construction, any opportunities to improve access provision should be taken – for example, where new roads or paths are built during construction, they should be retained to provide future walking and cycling access where appropriate. This could be an addition to tourism provision in the area if handled well. Your method statement seems to involve consulting on all aspects. My only observation is that you are selecting who you will consult with, rather than opening the consultation up to the wider public, who may have valid views, concerns and suggestions. I would suggest at least one public meeting and information in local papers fairly early in the process to ensure that all members of the community have a chance to make their views known, not just those who are already known to have an interest.

British Horse Society Yes Access routes offer opportunities for off road riding for us, as long as the surfaces are suitable. We do try and ride the Southern Upland Way and there is occasional hacks in these hills. (The BHS provided a copy of their advisory statement on wind farms and horses)

Cyclists Touring Club Scotland

No -

National Trust for Scotland

No -

Scottish Civic Trust No -

Scottish Countryside Access Network

No -



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Scottish Countryside Rangers Association

No -

Scottish Orienteering Association

No -

The British Caving Association

No -

Walking Support The walking route that is going to be influenced by the proposal is the Southern Upland Way which in this area is passing to the SSE to E of the proposed development. The route will be in parts within the 15 Km distance of the development but will be shielded in certain parts of the 15 Km target area by hills and out of view resulting from closer forestation that will block the view. For these reasons we do not think that we have any ground on which to raise any realistic environmental objection as our surveys would indicate that at this sort of distance the walkers will still come on the route. The Southern Upland Way is now in a position that for increasing lengths of the 212 miles the walker is walking with wind farms on the horizon or in much closer proximity. This is particularly the case (practical / personal knowledge) in the eastern half where the proliferation of wind farms is extensive and at times very obtrusive. This is an area where we think there is not enough understanding and knowledge as to how this increasing frequency even of more distance wind farms is detracting from the attractiveness of a walking route. On this ground of ever increasing wind farms along the length of one of "Scotland's Great Trails" we would want to register a concern.

Historic Scotland For your information, our statutory historic environment interests cover scheduled monuments and their setting, category A listed buildings and their setting, gardens and designed landscapes (GDL) and battlefields included in their respective inventories. Thus, while dealing with wind farm proposals we are charged with assessing their potential impacts on the above types of sites and our remit does not extend to socio-economic, tourism and recreation impacts that you aim to examine.

35 In addition, the scoping opinion from Energy Consents and Deployment Unit states in Section 5.2 Economic Benefit that the assessment should:

“…include relevant economic information connected with the project, including the potential number of jobs, and economic activity associated with the procurement, construction operation and decommissioning of the development”.

36 In section 7.4 it also states that:



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“The impact of the proposed development on public footpaths and rights of way should be clearly indicated. If any re-routing of paths under a Right of Way is required alternative routes should be highlighted for consideration.”

37 Under section 20, the response of Visit Scotland emphasises its view that tourism is a key issue for consideration in terms of the economy. It states that any “potential detrimental impact of the proposed development on tourism - whether visually, environmentally and economically - be identified and considered in full”. The potential impact on the newly established Galloway Forest Dark Sky Park and the new observatory at Craigengillan Estate is specifically highlighted. Visit Scotland also has concerns over “any potential detrimental impact renewable development could have on the proposed UNESCO Biosphere status”.

38 The tourism and recreation assessment chapter addresses such issues.

39 We also recognise the advice referred to in section 28 from Scotways that the Welsh Assembly’s Technical Advice Note on Renewable Energy (TAN 8): Proximity to Highways should be accounted for in the assessment. This will be covered in the relevant chapter through the design of the proposed scheme.

40 Consultees responses have been fed into the baseline assessment and contribute to the comprehensive impact assessment of quantitative and qualitative factors addressed in this chapter.

16.2 Socio Economic Profile

41 This socio-economic profile examines the key indicators and measures of socio-economic activity in the study area. It sets a context for the assessment and highlights key economic issues.

16.2.1 Travel to Work Area

42 The boundary for the socio-economic analysis has been prepared using drive time catchment areas from the proposed South Kyle wind farm5. This provides a precise catchment reflecting travel to work patterns. The ‘local area’ is defined within a 45 minute drive time; the ‘wider area’ within a 60 minute drive time and the ‘wider region’ within a 90 minute drive time.

5 The Office of Fair Trade endorsed the method of drive time catchment areas to provide population statistics in 2006



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Map 16.1: South Kyle drive time isochrones

16.2.2 Economic Development and Strategy Review

43 The socio-economic strategy and policy context is outlined below. A review of planning and other policy is provided in Chapter 2, Policy and Legal Framework and planning policy is reviewed in more detail in the Planning Statement, a document produced in addition to this ES.

16.2.2.1 The Government Economic Strategy (2011)

44 The Government Economic Strategy highlights six strategic priorities that drive economic growth:

a supportive business environment

transition to a low carbon economy

learning, skills and well-being

infrastructure development and place

effective government

equity

45 The urgent need to meet emissions targets has resulted in the creation of a specific Strategic Priority focused on the low carbon economy; an addition to the 2007 strategy.



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46 Energy (including renewables) is one of the seven growth sectors identified in the economic strategy.

16.2.2.2 Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) (2010)

47 Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) states that the overarching purpose of the Scottish Government is to achieve sustainable economic growth. SPP stresses the importance of the planning system in supporting any development which will contribute to sustainable economic growth. It states that planning authorities should adopt a positive approach to development, taking full account of economic and financial conditions which could contribute to economic growth. Moreover, planning authorities through development plans should support all scales of development associated with generation of energy and heat from renewable sources, accounting for economic, social, environmental and transport issues and maximising benefits.

16.2.2.3 East Ayrshire Sustainable Development Strategy

48 The East Ayrshire Sustainable Development Strategy highlights the importance of delivering sustainable development across all council services. One of the key areas seen as pivotal to achieving sustainability is energy efficiency. In a sustainability audit completed in 2007 the installation of wind turbines was recognised as an example of best practice to achieve energy efficiency.

16.2.2.4 South of Scotland Competitiveness Strategy (2007-2013)

49 This strategy sets out priorities designed to improve the overall performance and competitiveness of the South of Scotland. Under Priority Five, there is a need to “develop the business opportunities from the production of renewable energy – wind, biomass, wave etc”.

16.2.2.5 East Ayrshire Tourism Strategy and Action Plan 2009-2015

50 The East Ayrshire Tourism Strategy and Action Plan highlights the importance of sustainable tourism development and calls for growth in green tourism. One of its key objectives is to strengthen the promotion of the area as a green destination.

16.2.2.6 Development Plan Policy

East Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan 51 The Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan acknowledges the substantial renewable

energy resources which are ready to be exploited in the area. It suggests that renewable energy developments have the potential to “act as an economic and sustainable driver of local economies for the future”. The potential benefits wind farm developments can bring to local communities and the role they can play in economic regeneration are specifically noted.



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East Ayrshire Local Plan 52 Local Plan CS15 states that for commercial wind farm developments

renewable energy funds should be set up to compensate local communities affected by the development. It states that for the first 10 years of the projects life, the fund should be used solely for local projects within 10km of the development. Thereafter, the fund should be split evenly between local projects and those in the wider East Ayrshire area.

16.2.2.7 Dumfries & Galloway

Dumfries & Galloway Structure Plan 53 Structure Plan Strategy 1 The Local Economy states that “economic

development which diversifies and strengthens the local economy in a sustainable manner” will be supported. Moreover it encourages development which “increases the supply of jobs…in rural areas”.

54 The plan calls on developers to provide appropriate contributions for the provision of infrastructure, community facilities and environmental amenity in relation to development.

16.2.2.8 Local Action Plans and Strategies

55 Various action plans have been produced for the local area and the wider hinterland of the proposed wind farm. These include:

Dalmellington Community Parish Action Plan 2012-2017

Drongan Community Environmental Improvement Action Plan 2006

East Ayrshire Community Planning Delivering Community Regeneration Action Plan 2011-2015

Cumnock Masterplan 2008

56 These documents list specific improvements, goals and objectives, which if realised, should help improve the local community. Some have been implemented, whilst others are still aspirational. Examples include creating a community woodland area in Dalmellington and enhancing Cumnock’s public realm. A table of the key points taken from these action plans is detailed in Appendix 16.2 (Volume 5).

57 It was originally intended that East Ayrshire Council would play a significant role in guiding the development of these action plans. The 2010 Local Plan specifically calls for the co-ordination and facilitation of Community Environmental Improvement Action Plans for a number of towns in in the surrounding area including Auchinleck, Cumnock, New Cumnock, Patna, Dalmellington and Drongan.

58 In discussion with council planners it has been established that the council now wishes to play a lesser role in the development and management of these action plans. Responsibility for their development and implementation now rests with bodies such as local community councils and parishes.



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16.2.2.9 Summary of Socio-Economic Strategies and Policy

59 The area’s principal economic and tourism strategies offer broad support for the renewable energy industry and recognise the opportunity to capitalise on the economic benefits of renewable energy development and green status.

16.2.3 Socio-Economic Profile

60 The following section profiles the socio-economic structure of the East Ayrshire and Dumfries & Galloway local authority areas.

16.2.3.1 Population

61 The local and wider area along with the wider region (to a lesser extent), has experienced population decline since 2001, a trend which is expected to continue until 2021. Over the same period the populations of Dumfries & Galloway, East Ayrshire and Scotland as a whole are expected to grow slightly.

Table 16.8 Population

Local Area

Wider Area

Wider Region

Dumfries & Galloway

East Ayrshire Scotland

Population (2001) 6,314 37,284 326,836 147,765 120,235 5,059,103

Population (2012) 6,146 36,410 324,653 149,045 120,818 5,253,279

Population (2021) 6,021 35,999 324,100 149,402 121,517 5,412,516

% change

2001-2012 -2.7% -2.3% -0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 3.8%

2012-2021 -2.0% -1.1% -0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 3.0%

Source: Census 2001 &PBA Roger Tym GIS team

16.2.3.2 Economic Activity

62 The economic activity rate is a useful measure of the labour market opportunities available in the area6. South Kyle’s local and wider area has notably lower levels of economic activity. While similar to the Dumfries & Galloway and East Ayrshire economic activity rate, the wider region is slightly below the national average.

6 The economic activity rate measures the percentage of the population, both in employment and

unemployed that represent the labour supply regardless of their labour status. The figure represents the degree of success of the area in engaging people in productive activity.



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Table 16.9 Economic Activity Rate

Local Area

Wider Area

Wider Region

Dumfries & Galloway


Total people (16-74)

4,477 27,185 238,550 107,391 87,881 3,728,863

Economically Active (%)

54% 58% 63% 64% 63% 65%

Economically Inactive (%)

46% 42% 37% 36% 37% 35%

Source: Census 2001 & RTP GIS team

63 The South Kyle local area is characterised by higher than average levels of unemployment and a low proportion of economically active students, indicating relatively low levels of economic opportunity. Rural areas typically exhibit an above average proportion of self-employed individuals. The proportion of self-employed workers is similar to the national average but is lower than could be expected for a rural area. This may indicate a low level of entrepreneurship. The proportion of retired people in the local area is particularly low, however the local area has a high proportion of permanently sick/ disabled people. Overall the local labour market appears to be less dynamic than the wider area; region; surrounding local authority areas and the national average.

Table 16.10 Economic Activity by Type

Local Area

Wider Area

Wider Region

Dumfries & Galloway


Economically Active

2,402 15,828 149,752 69,102 55,613 2,422,648

Employee (%) 77% 77% 78% 75% 78% 79%

Self-employed with employees (%)

4% 4% 4% 7% 4% 4%

Self-employed w/out employees (%)

6% 6% 5% 9% 6% 6%

Unemployed (%)

11% 10% 9% 6% 9% 6%

Full-time student (econ active) (%)

2% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5%

Economically Inactive

2,075 11,357 88,798 38,289 32,198 1,306,215

Retired (%) 30% 37% 41% 48% 40% 40%

Student (economically inactive) (%)

7% 8% 9% 7% 9% 12%

Looking after home/family (%)

17% 17% 17% 16% 17% 16%

Permanently sick/disabled (%)

34% 27% 22% 19% 23% 21%

Other economically inactive

12% 11% 11% 10% 9% 11%



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16.2.3.3 Employment Structure

64 Health and social work occupations are the main employment categories in the local area, indicating an above average reliance on public sector jobs. Manufacturing and wholesale/ retail are the next most significant employment categories. The local area also has a low proportion of people who work in finance and real estate/ business activity jobs which is unsurprising given the areas rural location. Compared to Scotland the local area appears to have a higher proportion of relatively lower value; lower paid jobs.

Table 16.11 Occupational Group

Local Area

Wider Area

Wider Region

Dumfries &Galloway


Agriculture/hunting/ forestry/fishing

6% 4% 3% 9% 3% 2%

Mining/ electric/ gas/water

4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Manufacturing 15% 17% 18% 13% 20% 13%

Construction 8% 9% 8% 8% 9% 8%

Wholesale/retail trade/repairs

14% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14%

Hotels & restaurants 5% 5% 5% 7% 4% 6%

Transport/storage/ communications

7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7%

Financial intermediation

1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 5%

Real estate/ rent/business activity

5% 7% 9% 7% 8% 11%

Public admin/ defence/ social security

6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7%

Education 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 7%

Health & social work 19% 15% 13% 13% 13% 12%

Other industries 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5%

Total 2,073 13,753 132,984 61,974 49,413 2,200,924


16.2.3.4 Tourism Employment

65 The level of tourism related employment in Dumfries & Galloway and East Ayrshire has fallen recently. Tourism related employment in Dumfries & Galloway accounts for a high share of employment relative to East Ayrshire and Scotland. East Ayrshire has a below average proportion of tourism related jobs and around half the number of tourism related jobs relative to Dumfries & Galloway.



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Table 16.12 Tourism Related Employment

2006 2007 2008

No. % No. % No. %

Dumfries & Galloway 6,700 11.4% 7,100 12.0% 6,100 10.4%

East Ayrshire 3,100 7.7% 3,100 7.9% 2,900 7.2%

Scotland - 9.2% - 9.1% - 8.9%

Source: NOMIS 2012

16.2.3.5 Social Grade

66 NRS social grades are a system of demographic classification widely used in market research7. The local area has a significantly lower proportion of people in the highest social grades and an above average proportion of people in the lower social grades. Over a quarter (26%) of people in the local area are in the very lowest social grade – double the Scottish average. Only 7% of people are in the highest category, a third of the national average and around half the local authority averages. This indicates the high proportion of people in the local area in low skilled occupations which are likely to be low paid and require little training or qualifications.

Table 16.13 NRS Social Grade

Local Area

Wider Area

Wider Region

Dumfries & Galloway


AB (upper &middle class

8)

Jobs: High/intermediate managerial/admin/ professional

7% 11% 18% 15% 16% 21%

C1 (lower middle class) Supervisory/ clerical/junior managerial /admin/professional

16% 19% 25% 26% 24% 27%

C2 (skilled working class) Jobs: Skilled manual jobs

22% 22% 20% 23% 21% 18%

D (working class) Jobs: Semi-skilled/ unskilled manual jobs

28% 27% 23% 25% 24% 21%

E (lowest level of subsistence) State benefit/unemployed/ lowest grade

26% 20% 15% 12% 15% 13%

Total 4,477 27,185 238,550 107,391 87,811 -

7 Originally developed by the National Readership Survey (NRS). Now used by many other

organisations for wider applications and a standard for market research. 8 Only a small proportion of the UK population (c.2%) can be identified as upper class. This group is

therefore not included in the NRS classification scheme.



Page 23 of 72


16.2.3.6 Qualifications

67 Over half of local area residents do not hold any qualifications while over a quarter only hold the lowest level of qualifications. This attainment rate is lower than the wider area and region but considerably weaker than the surrounding local authority and national average.

Table 16.14 Qualifications

Local Area

Wider Area

Wider Region

Dumfries & Galloway


No qualifications 52% 47% 38% 40% 41% 33%

Standard Grade 26% 26% 25% 26% 25% 25%

Higher Grade, 11% 12% 15% 13% 14% 16%

HND, HNC, RSA Higher Diploma

4% 5% 7% 5% 6% 7%

First or Higher Degree

7% 10% 15% 16% 13% 19%


16.2.3.7 Wages

68 A notable disparity exists between average earnings in Dumfries & Galloway and East Ayrshire. Workers in Dumfries & Galloway earn around 13% less than those in East Ayrshire. Workers in Dumfries & Galloway earn considerably less (-9%) than the Scottish average while those working in East Ayrshire earn slightly more (+2%).

Table 16.15 Earning by Workplace

Dumfries & Galloway


Weekly wages £444 £503 £491

As % of Scotland 91% 102% -

Source: NOMIS 2012

16.2.3.8 Business Health

69 VAT registrations and de-registrations are a good guide to the pattern of business start-ups and closures, and a useful indicator of the level of entrepreneurship and health of the business population9.

70 The latest year for which data is available (2007) shows lower than average levels of VAT registrations and de-registrations for both areas. Dumfries & Galloway and East Ayrshire account for a relatively small proportion of Scotland’s VAT registered businesses (4% and 2% respectively), broadly equivalent to each their share of Scotland’s population (3% and 2% respectively).

9 Businesses have to register for VAT once their annual turnover exceeds £58,000.



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Table 16.16 Business Health (2007)

Dumfries & Galloway East Ayrshire Scotland

No. % of stock

No. % of stock

No. % of stock

Registrations 350 5.8 230 8.5 10.3 10.2

De-registrations 300 5 185 6.9 6.8 7.3

Stock (at end of year) 6,025 - 2,695 141,895 -

Source: NOMIS 2012

16.2.3.9 Gross Value Added

71 GVA measures the contribution to the economy of each industry sector. Dumfries & Galloway and East Ayrshire contribute a marginal share of total GVA in Scotland (1.5% and 0.9% respectively).

72 Like Scotland, the service sector accounts for the majority of both areas total GVA contribution, although manufacturing activity generates a higher than average proportion of GVA.

Table 16.17 Gross Value Added by Industry (£m)

Dumfries & Galloway

% of D&G

% of Scot.

East Ayrshire

% of EA

% of Scot.

Total Scot.

Manufacturing £270 20% 2% £125 15% 1% 14%

Construction £120 9% 2% £71 9% 1% 6%

Services £824 61% 2% £488 58% 1% 57%

Primary industries

£132 10% 1% £151 18% 0.7% 23%

Total GVA £1,345 100% 1% £835 100% 1% 100%

Source: Scottish Government Annual Business Statistics (2012)

16.2.3.10 Socio-economic Summary

73 The local area surrounding the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm is characterised by:

population decline, contrary to the pattern of local authority and national projections

a weak population structure with a high and increasing retirement age population

a notably lower economic activity rate

higher than average levels of unemployment

an above average reliance on public sector jobs

a significantly lower proportion of people within the top social grades and an above average proportion of people in the lower class social grades

poor education attainment levels



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16.3 Tourism Context

16.3.1 Tourism Volume and Value

74 This section provides a tourism profile of Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway relative to Scotland in terms of visitor and tourist trends, tourism volume and value, visitor patterns, visitor accommodation occupancy rates and expenditure patterns. The most up-to-date sources of information have been used . Where possible, figures for East Ayrshire are used in preference to the wider Ayrshire & Arran area.

16.3.2 Profile of Tourism

16.3.2.1 Ayrshire

75 The 2011 report The Visitor Economy of Ayrshire: The Present Profile and Future Opportunities, provides an overall summary of tourism in Ayrshire. In 2009 Ayrshire contributed around 3% of the money spent by UK and overseas visitors in Scotland10. Nearly 50% of the income from visitors to Ayrshire is generated in South Ayrshire, while East Ayrshire accounts for only 18%. Whilst this is relatively low, visitor spending in East Ayrshire grew by 13-15% between 2006 and 200911.

76 In 2007, tourism-related employment accounted for 5% of local employment in East Ayrshire12. In South Ayrshire and North Ayrshire the figures were higher at 12% and 8% respectively.

77 In 2008/09 the most popular tourist activities in East Ayrshire included visiting castles and museums, and shopping13.

78 The Visit Scotland Ayrshire & Arran Visitor Survey 2008-09 highlighted strengths, weaknesses and hidden opportunities. For East Ayrshire, strengths included the number of things to do and the friendliness of its people. Weaknesses included a lack of good quality accommodation, value for money and cleanliness of towns. Some of hidden opportunities included cultural events, festivals and the availability of locally produced food and drink. Unlike North Ayrshire & Arran, the beauty of the landscape was not highlighted as a key strength in East Ayrshire.

79 The report noted the following key trends:

income from tourists has been growing steadily

tourism trips have fallen

tourism is highly seasonal with the majority of visits coming between the months of May and August

day trippers are important to the area

10

2011 11

2006 data taken from East Ayrshire Council (2009). East Ayrshire Tourism: Strategy & Action Plan – The Way Ahead: 2009-2015 12

VisitScotland (2010). Tourism in Western Scotland 2009. 13

The Visitor Economy of Ayrshire: The Present Profile and Future Opportunities 2011



Page 26 of 72

there is a lack of key attractions, so that it is dependent on the area’s inland and coastal scenery

opportunities for growth include outdoor activities, such as golf and sailing

though the area is perceived by visitors to have beautiful scenery and things to do and see, it fails to make the most of its historic attractions, cultural events and retail facilities


80 The 2009 Scottish Tourism Economic Activity Monitor highlighted tourism as a key sector in the regional economy of Dumfries & Galloway. It stated that tourism accounted for 11% of employment in the area, placing it in the top three employment sectors. It estimated that in 2009, tourism contributed £269.68 million to the area’s economy, a 19% increase since 2006.

16.3.2.3 Top Visitor Attractions

81 Visitor numbers to three of the top five tourist attractions in Ayrshire & Arran have increased significantly since 2006 most notably to Dean Castle Country Park. In Dumfries & Galloway, the most popular visitor attraction in the area, the World Famous Old Blacksmith’s Shop Centre, has recorded a modest increase in visitor numbers between 2006 and 2011. Other top attractions in the area during this time have recorded reductions in visitor numbers, including Mabie Farm Park and Cream o’Galloway.

82 Two of the visitor attractions (Robert Burns Birthplace Museum and Heads of Ayr Farm Park) are approximately 20km-25km from the proposed wind farm.

Table 16.18 Top Visitor Attractions in Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway

2011 Rank

2011 Visitors

% change since 2006

Ayrshire & Arran

Dean Castle Country Park 1 926,280 254%

Robert Burns Birthplace Museum, Ayr 2 444,947 47%

Culzean Castle and Country Park, Maybole 3 170,781 -9%

Dick Institute Museum, Kilmarnock 4 138,050 -26%

Heads of Ayr Farm Park, Ayr 5 125,217 52%

Dumfries & Galloway

World Famous Old Backmith's Shop Centre, Gretna Green 1 723,576 1%

Mabie Forest, Dumfries 2 135,000 -

Dalbeattie Forest, Dalbeattie 3 105,000 -

Mabie Farm Park, Dumfries 4 73,913 -12%

Cream o 'Galloway, Castle Douglas 5 65,900 -5% Source: Visit Scotland 2011 Tourism Factsheet for Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway

83 Three attractions identified in the 2009 Visitor Attraction Monitor are within the 15km study area. These are Carsphairn Heritage Centre, The Baird Institute and the Doon Valley Museum. However, visitor numbers to these attractions (ranging from 1,300 to 3,100 visitors) were fairly low. The study area does not have any regionally significant attractions at present. However, Dumfries



Page 27 of 72

House (which is in the study area) received an estimated 10,000 visitors in 2009, placing it in the top 15 attractions in Ayrshire14.

16.3.3 UK Trips and Expenditure

16.3.3.1 Ayrshire

84 The number of domestic tourist trips to Ayrshire & Arran has fallen between 2006 and 2011, reducing by 14%. However, during the same period, expenditure received from domestic tourists has increased by 17%.

85 Ayrshire & Arran is more dependent on its Scottish domestic visitors. This pattern is now emerging nationally and may be a reflection of people choosing to stay closer to home when going on holiday.

Table 16.19 UK Tourists to Ayrshire by Country of Residence 2011

Trips (%) Domestic Tourism Expenditure (%)

Ayrshire & Arran Scotland

Ayrshire & Arran % change since 2006



England 38 46 -6 57 61 3

Scotland 61 52 6 27 34 -14

Wales 1 2 1 16 5 14

Total (m) 0.69 13.36 -14% £175 £3,018 17% Source: Visit Scotland Tourism Factsheet for Ayrshire & Arran 2006 & 2011


86 In Dumfries & Galloway the number of domestic trips also fell between 2006 and 2011. However, expenditure increased by nearly a quarter over the same period. There has been a fall in the number of English visitors to Dumfries & Galloway, with a higher proportion of visitors from Scotland.

14

2011 Visitor Economy of Ayrshire: The Present Profile and Future Opportunities report



Page 28 of 72

Table 16.20 UK Tourists to Dumfries & Galloway by country of residence 2011

Trips (%) Domestic Tourism Expenditure (%)

Dumfries & Galloway Scotland

Dumfries & Galloway % change since 2006



England 53 46 13 68 61 8

Scotland 43 52 -14 30 34 -6

Wales 3 2 2 3 5 2

Total (m) 0.83 13.36 -10% £183 £3,018 24% Source: Visit Scotland Visit Scotland Tourism Factsheet for Dumfries & Galloway 2006 & 2011

16.3.4 Overseas Trips and Expenditure

16.3.4.1 Ayrshire

87 USA, Germany and Spain account for over half of all Ayrshire & Arran’s overseas visitors. The numbers of visitors and expenditure received from these countries has increased between 2006 and 2011.

However, overall the total number of overseas visitors to Ayrshire & Arran fell sharply between 2006 and 2011, by over 40%. Total tourism expenditure has also decreased significantly. This could be a result of the economic downturn, with more people looking for cost effective holidays at home instead of travelling abroad.

Table 16.21 Overseas Trips & Expenditure by Country of Residence (Ayrshire & Arran) 2011

Trips (%) Expenditure (%)





USA 25 14 14 35 15 18

Germany 16 11 5 11 9 4

Spain 10 6 3 5 5 1

France 6 7 0 4 9 0

Ireland 6 8 -3 3 5 -3

Canada 6 4 -6 9 6 -5

Finland 5 2 5 1 1 1

Australia 4 6 -1 6 7 -2

Sweden 3 3 -14 1 3 -13

Netherlands 3 6 0 1 4 -1

Rest of the World 15 33 -4 24 36 0

Total (m) 0.09 2.35 -46% £32 £1,494 -42%



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Source: Visit Scotland Tourism Factsheet for Ayrshire & Arran 2006 & 2011


88 The majority of overseas trips in Dumfries & Galloway are from Germany, Ireland and Canada. However overall, the area has a fairly even distribution of overseas visitors from different countries, similar to the national trend.

89 Overseas visitor numbers and related tourism expenditure fell significantly between 2006 and 2011. In particular visitors from the USA fell considerably along with their associated expenditure.

Table 16.22 Overseas Trips and Expenditure by Country of Residence (Dumfries & Galloway) 2011

Trips (%) Expenditure (%)





Germany 14 11 2 7 9 -4

Ireland 13 8 7 11 5 0

Canada 10 4 1 13 6 7

Italy 9 4 7 7 3 3

France 9 7 7 10 9 9

USA 8 14 -16 13 15 -26

Netherlands 6 6 3 7 4 5

Australia 6 6 - 14 7 10

Rest of the World 25 40 -12 18 42 -4

Total (m) 0.04 2350 -35% £10 £1,494 -50% Source: Visit Scotland Tourism Factsheet for Dumfries & Galloway 2006 & 2011

16.3.4.3 Total Trips

90 Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway’s tourism profiles are predominately influenced by domestic visitors. Over 88% of tourism trips in Ayrshire & Arran and 96% in Dumfries & Galloway are from domestic visitors. As to be expected the majority of tourism expenditure (85% in Ayrshire & Arran and 95% in Dumfries & Galloway) is received from domestic tourists.

16.3.5 Day Trips

16.3.5.1 Ayrshire

91 The analysis above concerns visitors who are staying one or more nights in an area. It does not take account of the number and value of day trip visitors. In 2009, day trippers to Ayrshire accounted for around 60% of visitor numbers but only 25% of spend15. The average tourist (i.e. a person staying overnight)

15

The Visitor Economy of Ayrshire: The Present Profile and Future Opportunities 2011



Page 30 of 72

spend per trip was £208, whilst it was only £38 for day trippers. In East Ayrshire average tourist spend was only £173, with day trippers averaging £36. This suggests that the day tripper market is important in East Ayrshire, as tourist spend in the area is significantly lower than the Ayrshire average. This is further emphasised by the fact that in 2009, the day tripper market in East Ayrshire accounted for 37% of tourism spend16, compared with 23% and 18% respectively in North Ayrshire and South Ayrshire.

16.3.6 Purpose of Trip

92 Most domestic and overseas tourists visit Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway for a holiday stay. In terms of UK trips, both areas have a proportionally greater number of holiday visitors than the Scottish average.

93 Compared to the Scottish average, a notable percentage of overseas tourists in both areas are visiting friends or relatives.

94 There are a relatively few business trips, both domestic and overseas, in Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway.

Table 16.23 Purpose of Trip 2011

GB Trips (%) Overseas (%)

Ayrshire & Arran





Holiday 80 67 12 53 53 2

VFR 8 13 -8 30 26 -6

Business 10 16 -2 14 18 5

Other 3 4 -1 3 3 -1

Dumfries & Galloway





Holiday 79 69 7 56 62 12

VFR 13 17 -1 27 15 -10

Business 8 14 -3 16 17 0

Other 1 0 -2 1 6 -2 Source: Visit Scotland Tourism Factsheet for Ayrshire & Arran, Dumfries & Galloway 2006 & 2011

16.3.7 Accommodation

95 In Ayrshire & Arran, nearly half of domestic tourists chose to stay with either friends and family or camp or use a caravan. In Dumfries & Galloway, a

16

Ibid



Page 31 of 72

higher proportion of visitors stay with friends / relatives or in self-catering accommodation. Very few domestic tourists used B&B accommodation.

96 The type of accommodation chosen by domestic tourists in both areas saw some changes between 2006-2011. In Ayrshire & Arran, the proportion of people staying in hotels or choosing to camp or stay in caravans increased, while the proportion of tourists staying in self-catering accommodation decreased. In Dumfries & Galloway, domestic visitors self-catering also decreased along with those staying hotels. While the number of people camping/caravanning and staying with friends and family increased.

97 The majority of overseas visitors to Ayrshire & Arran tend to stay with friends and relatives. A similar pattern is seen in Dumfries & Galloway where nearly half of overseas visitors use this accommodation type. Over a fifth of overseas visitors to Dumfries & Galloway use self-catering accommodation.

98 The proportion of overseas visitors to Ayrshire & Arran staying with friends/relatives increased slightly between 2006 and 2011, while the proportion of visitors using self-catering reduced by 15%. Conversely in Dumfries & Galloway the use of self-catering accommodation has increased by 15%. Accommodation types in Dumfries & Galloway such as hotels/guesthouses and B&Bs have become less popular.

Table 16.24 Accommodation used 2011

UK Trips (%) Overseas (%)

Ayrshire & Arran





Hotel/ Guesthouse 14 27 2 19 30 -3

Friends/ Relatives 31 32 1 59 35 6

Self-catering 16 14 -26 2 10 -15

Camping/ Caravanning 28 16 19 2 3 0

B&B 4 4 1 4 8 -2

Other 8 6 4 14 14 14

Dumfries & Galloway

Dumfries& Galloway Scotland




Hotel/ Guesthouse 11 27 -8 8 30 -16

Friends/ Relatives 32 32 10 49 35 -5

Self-catering 28 14 -9 21 10 15

Camping/ Caravanning 22 16 4 6 3 3

B&B 4 4 2 3 8 -8



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Table 16.24 Accommodation used 2011

UK Trips (%) Overseas (%)

Ayrshire & Arran





Other 2 6 0 13 14 11 Source: Visit Scotland Visit Scotland Tourism Factsheet for Ayrshire & Arran, Dumfries & Galloway 2006 & 2011

16.3.8 Occupancy

99 Occupancy rates are highest during the main holiday season, as to be expected. In Ayrshire & Arran, occupancy rates for hotels tend to higher in springtime rather than the autumn months.

100 Average annual occupancy for hotels and self-catering accommodation in Ayrshire is lower than the national average, while occupancy rates for B&Bs and guesthouses in the area are higher than the national average. Between 2006 and 2011 there has been a significant fall in occupancy rates in self-catering accommodation.

101 In Dumfries & Galloway, occupancy rates are lower than the national average for hotels, guesthouses and B&Bs, with no major variations between 2006 and 2011. Occupancy rates in self-catering accommodation have remained stable at just under 50%.

Table 16.25 Occupancy 2010 Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway

Hotel (%)

% change since 2006

Guesthouse/ B&B (%)

% change since 2009

Self-Catering (%)

% change since 2006

Ayrshire & Arran

Winter 31 -6 - - 10 -16

Spring 58 1 48 11 17 -21

Summer 77 1 55 -2 36 -33

Autumn 55 -2 - - 29 -10

Average for region 56 -1 51 11 23 -22

Annual average for all Scotland 65 2 44 -2 36 -19

Dumfries & Galloway

Winter 28 -7 18 1 21 -4

Spring 44 -7 37 2 49 4

Summer 55 -5 51 -6 72 -2

Autumn 50 0 36 -4 48 4

Average for region 44 -6 37 0 47 0



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Table 16.25 Occupancy 2010 Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway

Hotel (%)

% change since 2006

Guesthouse/ B&B (%)

% change since 2009

Self-Catering (%)

% change since 2006

Annual average for all Scotland 65 2 44 -2 36 -19 Source: Visit Scotland Tourism Factsheet for Ayrshire & Arran, Dumfries & Galloway 2009 & 2010

16.3.9 Summary

102 Across Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway, the tourism sector is heavily reliant on the domestic market in terms of visitor numbers and expenditure. Whilst both areas have seen domestic visitor numbers fall, there have been increases in the related expenditure received.

103 In recent times, overseas visitor numbers and related expenditure have fallen significantly in both areas.

104 In most cases, domestic and overseas tourists visit Dumfries & Galloway and Ayrshire & Arran for a holiday stay.

105 Staying domestic tourists to both areas are fairly evenly distributed across various accommodation types, with staying with friends and relatives the most popular. A high proportion of overseas visitors to both areas also stay with friends and relatives.

106 In both areas occupancy rates are generally lower than national averages.

16.4 Tourism and Recreation Audit

16.4.1 Identification of Principal Facilities

107 In assessing the tourist, visitor and recreational facilities in the study area, those which appear most frequently in tourist or visitor websites, brochures, guidebooks, and other media are taken to represent its principal tourism resources. This is a standard approach taken as a proxy for tourists/visitors assessment of the potential attractions of an area.

16.4.2 Audit

108 This section profiles the various tourism and recreation activities and facilities in the study area. It identifies settlements, tourist routes, walking routes, rights of way, core paths, climbing routes, cycle routes, golf courses, fishing resources (i.e. lochs and rivers), forest parks/nature reserves, estates, events, visitor attractions, activity centres and accommodation providers.

109 The full audit is attached in Appendices 16.3 – 16.7 (Volume 5), with maps detailing the various tourist and recreational receptors.



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16.4.3 Principal Settlements

110 Overall the study area is populated with settlements which have been heavily influenced by the mining industry and its subsequent decline. With this decline, the area’s population has fallen over the years, with people leaving to find employment elsewhere.

16.4.3.1 Cumnock

111 Cumnock is the largest settlement, with a population of over 9,000 at the last Census17. The town is c.13 km north of the proposed wind farm site at the convergence of Glaisnock Water and Lugar Water. In the past, Cumnock was linked with the coal mining industry, housing many of the areas miners. The town contains a number of historic buildings including those in the town square dating back to the 1700s. It is also well known for its junior football team, Cumnock Juniors.

16.4.3.2 Dalmellington

112 Dalmellington is the closest settlement to the proposed development, located some over 5km to the west. Historically it has been a market town, weaving centre and mining village. The Doon Valley Museum is located here, containing displays and exhibitions on various topics such as weaving and art and craft. On the outskirts are the Standing Stones of Dalmellington, erected in 1999 to symbolise the seven mining villages of the Doon Valley. There are various SSSI’s around Dalmellington, with Loch Doon one of the most prominent. The Doon Valley Leisure Centre (with swimming pool and gym) is located in the town. Dalmellington town’s oldest club is the Dalmellington Craigengillan Curling Club.

16.4.3.3 New Cumnock

113 New Cumnock is another former mining town with a population of nearly 3,000, some 8 km north-east of the proposed wind farm. It is a historic village with associations with Robert the Bruce and William Wallace. The town has a railway station and is home to Glenafton Athletic, another prominent junior football team.

16.4.3.4 Auchinleck

114 As with the other towns and villages in the area, Auchinleck was associated within mining until pit closures in the 1980’s. It has a population of around 3,500 and is some c.14 km north of the proposed wind farm. The town is most famous for its Junior football team Auchinleck Talbot.

16.4.3.5 Drongan

115 Some c.13 km away from the proposed development, Drongan is a former mining village with a population of around 3,000. The town has various

17

2001 Census (Note 2011 census data will not be available until 2013)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glaisnock_Water

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lugar_Water



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facilities and amenities, including a games hall and a community education centre.

16.4.3.6 Patna

116 Patna is a village with population of around 2,000, approximately c.12 km to the north west of the proposed wind farm. Facilities in the village include a library, sports hall, a golf club and various countryside walks (including a recently upgraded riverside footpath).

16.4.4 Principal Tourist Routes

16.4.4.1 Roads

117 Three main A roads link tourist movement in the study area: the A76 which runs from Kilmarnock south to Dumfries; the A70 between Ayr and Edinburgh; and the A713. The A713 is one of the South of Scotland’s main tourist roads and forms part of the Galloway Tourist Route, one of the 12 National Tourist Routes of Scotland, which connects Ayr to Castle Douglas. There are a number of smaller B roads which connect local villages and towns. A full list and a map of these roads is included at Appendix 16.3 (Volume 5).

16.4.4.2 Rail

118 One rail route passes through the study area. The Glasgow South Western Line connects Glasgow with Carlisle and stops at Auchinleck and New Cumnock stations.

16.4.4.3 Principal Walking Routes

119 The Southern Upland Way is the most high-profile path in the area. It is the first official long distance coast to coast footpath. It runs 212 miles (340 km) from Portpatrick on the south-west coast to Cockburnspath on the eastern seaboard.

120 There are also five prominent heritage paths in the study area:

the Old Road through Straiton starts just south of Patna and runs south to the River Stinchar

the Loch Doon Road is a 41km path which runs south from Dalmellington, south past Loch Doon ending near Clatteringshaws Loch

the Polmaddie Pack Road is a short trail just south of Carsphairn

the Old Road from New Cumnock to Dalquhairn is a 17km path which leads south from New Cumnock

the Sanquhar to Stroanfeggan Path intersects parts of the eastern side of the study area

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_South_Western_Line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_South_Western_Line



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121 There are also a number of promoted paths18 in the area, including Lady Hunter Blair’s Walk and The Monument and Bennan Circuit, both of which are short walks around Straiton in the west of the study area.

16.4.4.4 Hill Tracks and Rights of Way

122 There are eight official hill tracks and 70 rights of way in the study area. Right of Way DS2 runs directly through the site boundary of the wind farm.

123 A full list and maps of heritage and promoted paths, hill tracks and rights of way is included in Appendix 16.4 (Volume 5).

16.4.4.5 Core Paths

124 There are also a number of Core Paths located over three local authority areas. There are 35 in East Ayrshire, 71 in Dumfries & Galloway and 2 located in South Ayrshire. Details are included at Appendix 16.5 (Volume 5).

16.4.4.6 Cycle Routes

125 There are no major national cycle routes in the study area. However there are 9 local routes, which are detailed in Appendix 16.6 (Volume 5). Part of the Coalfield cycle route runs through the wind farm’s site. The route titled “Maybole - Patna - Skares - Dalleagles - Dalmellington – Straiton” runs close to the wind farm’s site boundary.

16.4.5 Horse riding

126 Two horse riding centres are in the study area: Burnockmill Equestrian and the Craigengillan Stables. Burnockmill is located just west of Cumnock near Buriton, while Craigengillan is located within the Craigengillan Estate near Dalmellington. Both centres have a range of facilities including stables, a livery yard and all weather arenas.

16.4.6 Golf Courses

127 There are two 9 hole golf courses in the study area - Patna and New Cumnock Golf Clubs (Appendix 16.7, Volume 5). Both are parkland courses with views across the countryside.

16.4.7 Leisure Centres

128 Leisure centres in the study area are located in Cumnock, Dalmellington and Drongan. These offer a variety of facilities including swimming pools, gyms and sport halls.

18

Promoted Paths are routes that have been mapped and have received some advertising that they are an official path



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16.4.8 Fishing

129 Three fisheries provide recreational fishing facilities – Boreland Trout Fishery, Dalvennan Fishery and Coyle Water Fishery.

130 The River Doon is also a popular fishing destination. People can fish the river on the Craigengillan and Skeldon Estates, as well as the Doonfoot and Smithston Fishings beats. On Loch Doon, fishing for brown trout is allowed with no permits required. Fishing is also permitted at Loch Finglas.

131 Angling clubs active in the area include the Ayr Angling Club which has rights to Shankston Loch. The New Cumnock Angling Association has fishing rights has fishing rights on the Nith and the Afton Water in the upper Nith valley and on the Water of Ken, the Water of Deugh and Carsphairn Lane near Carsphairn in the Glenkens.

132 Mote Cottage, New Cumnock offers fishing permits for the Afton Reservoir.

133 Details of horse riding facilities, golf facilities, leisure centres and fishing resources in the area are attached at Appendix 16.7 (Volume 5).

16.4.9 Estates

134 Estates in the study area include the Craigengillan and Skeldon Estates. Craigengillan has a wide variety of activities and amenities. These include 18 miles of footpaths, working stables with 54 horses and opportunities for fly fishing. There are also holiday lets and opportunities for wedding pictures across the estate. The Scottish Dark Sky Observatory was opened in Autumn 2012, part of the Galloway Forest Dark Sky Park. A modern, state-of-the-art public observatory, it is hoped that it will become one of the biggest tourist attractions in the area act as a catalyst for its regeneration.

135 Visitors to the Skeldon Estate can also participate in various activities including salmon fishing, gardening, tennis and bird watching. The estate also caters for the wedding market.

16.4.10 Gardens and Designated Landscapes

136 Gardens & Designed Landscapes,19 (areas of national significance) within the 15km study area include:

Skeldon House –Example of late 18th- / early 19th-century, medium-sized parkland landscape with riverside walks. It is located in a commercial estate with gardening courses available

Dumfries House - gardens, parkland and woodlands dating from the 17th century or earlier

Craigengillan - Complete designed landscape dating from the latter half of the 18th century, incorporating a Category A listed mansion house, formal gardens, walled garden, Japanese garden, garden buildings and notable drystone walling, extensive policy woodland, rocky gorge, and industrial archaeological remnants.

19

The Inventory of Gardens and Designed Landscapes of Scotland lists 386 significant gardens and landscapes across Scotland



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16.4.11 Events

137 A wide variety of events take place across the study area throughout the year including:

Cumnock and New Cumnock Outdoor Festival: A mixture of guided walks and family events in New Cumnock and Cumnock taking in the areas scenery

Cumnock Music Festival: An annual event which runs over two days, offering music in the evenings and a carnival on Saturday

Acoustic Open Mic Night: A once monthly event held at PULSE Recording Studio in Cumnock, providing opportunities to record and publish music

“Butterfly Come & Tri” Triathlon: An annual event in aid of Cancer Research UK

Marie Curie Walk Ten Ayrshire: An annual charity 10k walk held at Dumfries House

Boswell Book Festival: Held at Auchinleck House, this event has live talks, discussions and performances from writers and actors

Auchinleck Alive and Kicking Festival: 3 day music festival with a diverse range of music. There are also a range of other events including discos and an arts & craft fair

Cumnock Highland Games – An annual event running for 7 years which has an array of traditional Scottish entertainment and family events

16.4.12 Visitor Attractions

138 The following visitor attractions are within a 15km radius of the proposed wind farm (Appendix 16.8, Volume 5):

Blairquhan Castle: An A-listed building with award-winning gardens which are open to the public for tours in the summer

Dalcairnie Falls: 40 feet high waterfall with a drop of 20 feet, near Dalmellington

Carsphairn Heritage Centre: Heritage centre with a permanent timespan display, an annual exhibition focuses on an aspect of the history of the community

Dumfries House: A category A listed building is open to the public along with its historic gardens. There are also guided walks

Loch Doon Castle: An Historic Scotland property which dates from the 14th Century

Baird Institute/Gallery: houses collections and artefacts relating to the history of Cumnock and the Doon Valley. There is also an art gallery

Doon Valley Museum: The museum depicts the social and industrial history of the area, with particular reference to its coal mines and ironworks

Afton Water B&B/ Art Experience: Visitors can create their own art at the premises which has diverse range of art materials available

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Listed_building#Scotland



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16.4.13 Nature Reserves

139 Dalmellington Moss is the only nature reserve in the study area. Situated to the east of Dalmellington, it contains a variety of wetland habitats including mosses.

16.4.14 Accommodation

140 The study area contains a range of accommodation types. A full list of hotels, camping sites, hostels, bed and breakfast, guesthouses and self-catering accommodation is provided in Appendix 16.9 (Volume 5).

16.5 Tourism Business Survey

16.5.1 Introduction

141 The profile of tourism businesses in the study area is set out below.

142 Each business was contacted by telephone to establish the possible impact of the wind farm. A minimum of three attempted calls were made to each business to improve response rates. If it was inconvenient, another time was arranged or contact made by post, fax or e-mail. A number of respondents felt they did not have the time to give a full response, so responded to some key questions only.

143 Details of the project’s scale and location were revealed before starting the survey.

144 A total of 75 businesses were identified and contacted, with 34 responding to the questionnaire, representing a 45% response rate. This is regarded as a good level of response for this type of survey. Similar business surveys carried out by Roger Tym and Partners over the past two years have also averaged a 45% response.

145 The list of business contacted and respondents is attached at Appendix 16.1 (Volume 5).

146 The business profile below is based on responses to the survey.



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16.5.2 Location of Respondents

Figure 16.1 – Location of Respondents

Source: RTP 2012

147 Respondents from Cumnock account for over a fifth of all business responses

(21%), a reflection of its relative population and concentration of tourism related businesses. The other main centres in the study area: Dalmellington, Straiton, New Cumnock and Auchinleck account for the bulk of the remaining responses.

16.5.3 Type of Business

Figure 16.2 Type of business

Source: RTP 2012



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148 Over a quarter of responses (26%) were from self-catering accommodation providers. Responses from bars and pubs (21%) and B&B providers (15%) were also well represented (Figure 16.2).

16.5.4 Profile of Customers

Figure 16.3 Customer profile

Source: RTP 2012

149 Figure 16.3 shows that the majority of trade from responding businesses came from tourists and visitors. Only a quarter of business comes from the local customer base, highlighting the relative importance of tourism.

16.5.5 Visitor Origin

Table 16.26 Origin of Tourists/Visitors

%

Local (Ayrshire) 5%

Rest of Scotland 6%

Other UK 74%

Overseas 14%

Source: RTP 2012

150 Nearly three quarters of tourists/ visitors to responding businesses come from other parts of the UK outside Scotland (Table 16.21). Only a small proportion of customers come from the local area.



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16.5.6 Origin of Customer Booking

Figure 16.4 Booking origin of tourists/ visitors

Source: RTP 2012

151 Trade is received from a variety of sources with repeat visits the most

frequent. Passing trade and website bookings are also significant in generating bookings for accommodation or tourism related services.

16.5.7 Main Activities undertaken by Customers/Visitors

Figure 16.5 Customer Activities

Source: RTP 2012

152 Businesses noted their customers are involved in a wide variety of activities, with sightseeing the most popular (identified by 82% of businesses). Nearly three quarters noted the importance of walking as an activity attracting their visitors.



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16.5.8 Business Performance

Figure 16.6 Business performance over last 3 years

Source: RTP 2012

153 Nearly half of responding businesses noted stated their performance had

remained stable over the last three years, which could be attributed to an increased number of people opting to go on staycations during the recession. Around a third (35%) reported improved business performance while a small proportion (18%) reported reduced performance (Figure 16.6).

Figure 16.7 Satisfaction with Business Trading (current)

Source: RTP 2012

154 Respondents generally reported satisfaction with their current trading

performance and expectations of future trading. Almost half (45%) reported that current business performance was ‘fair’ with a third (33%) noting ‘good’ current business performance.



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Figure 16.8 Predicted Business Trading

Source: RTP 2012

155 Tourism related operators have an optimistic outlook with the majority (83%)

predicting improved future business performance.

16.5.9 Factors Influencing Business

156 Businesses identified a range of factors shaping tourism trends. External, local and business factors are distinguished below:

Table 16.27 Factors Influencing Business Trends

% Respondents

External Business and Economic Cycles 47%

Local Factors Reputation 12%

Neighbouring Facilities 24%

Weather 18%

New Attractions or Developments 6%

Business Factors Promotion and Marketing 6%

Product 53%

Price & Value for Money 29%

Source: RTP 2012

157 The most influential factors noted were product (53%) and business and economic cycles (47%). Other important considerations included price, value for money (i.e. competitiveness) and neighbouring facilities



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16.5.10 Annual Turnover

Figure 16.9 Turnover levels

158 Businesses were asked to indicate their annual turnover by turnover bands. With this data a profile of the scale of business in the area can be established, as shown below20.

Source: RTP 2012

159 Figure 16.9 shows the importance of small businesses in the local tourism sector.

16.5.11 Accommodation Businesses Occupancy Rates

Table 16.28 Occupancy rates

South Kyle Area Scottish Average

Peak Off-Peak Peak* Off-peak*

Average Occupancy Rates 64% 31% 69% 30%

Source: RTP 2012 & VisitScotland (various occupancy surveys)

*Figures taken as an average of occupancy data produced by TNS Research International for

Visit Scotland

160 Accommodation businesses were also asked to give an indication of their occupancy rates at peak and off-peak times year (Table 16.28). Occupancy rates during the peak season were more than double those registered for the off-peak season.

161 Compared with the occupancy rates described in Section 16.3.8 it suggests that the study area is performing somewhere between Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway. However, the area performs slightly below par relative to national occupancy levels during the peak season. Encouragingly, off-peak rates are comparable to the Scottish average. This suggests that some of the areas extends into other seasons.

20

It is important to note that only 13 of the 34 respondents answered this question, therefore the results may not accurately represent the turnover levels of respondents.



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16.6 Review of Socio-Economic Impact of Wind Farms in the UK (2002-2012)

162 This section reviews comparative research on the socio-economic impact of wind farm developments in the UK.

16.6.1 Review of ‘The Economic Impacts of Wind Farms in Scottish Tourism’ (2008)

163 One of the most recent and authoritative comprehensive pieces of research on the subject is the Scottish Government research report: ‘The economic impacts of wind farms on Scottish tourism’ (March 2008).

164 Specifically, the research found in terms of the effects of wind farms on visitor intentions to return, that:

“Under all circumstances, the vast majority (93-99%) of those who had seen a wind farm suggested that the experience would not have any effect.”

165 In addition, the tourist intercept survey included as part of the research concluded that:

“The results confirm that a sizeable minority of tourists did not like wind farms, but only a small minority were so offended as to change their intentions about revisiting Scotland. The impact is consequently likely to be very small.”

166 In terms of attitudes to built-structures in the landscape, the report’s section 4.4 / Figure.4.9 showed that only 10% of the respondents held a ‘strongly negative’ view of wind farms.

167 Thus the research emphasises that wind farms have minimal adverse impact upon tourism and tourist numbers. In addition, the report provides the following conclusions that:

Net neutral impact: “In general this research has found that the negative impact of wind farms on tourism at national level is small and any reduction in employment in tourism will be less than the numbers currently directly employed in the wind power industry.”

Attitudes do not alter behaviour: “The results confirm that some tourists did not like wind farms, but only a small minority were so offended as to change their intentions about revisiting Scotland. The impact is consequently likely to be very small.”

Walkers less opposed to wind farms: “Interestingly, the proportion of respondents whose main activity was indicated as walking/hillwalking (where the landscape is a major of the experience) and who indicated a negative attitude towards wind farms (19%) was lower than the overall figure of 25%. This group also had the most positive attitude (45%) among those categories where the sample size was of sufficient size for analysis.”



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Opinion of Wind farms by Main Activity: Golf (33%), watching wildlife (33%), fishing (25%), and water based sports participants (20%) to have the highest level of ‘strongly negative’ responses.21

16.6.2 Most Recent Research on Wind Farms Effects on the Landscape & Tourism

168 The more recent OnePoll Wind Farm Consumer Research for VisitScotland (April 2012)22 demonstrated that 80% of UK respondents stated their decision on where to visit for a holiday would not be affected by the presence of wind farms, while for the Scotland residents, 83% stated their decision would not be affected by the presence of a wind farm with 17% stating that it would.

169 The most recent published ComRes poll (June 2012)23 for the Independent on the public’s view towards wind farms further supports this level of support for wind farm development with “68% of the public believe that new wind farms are an acceptable price to pay for greener energy in the future.” A further 23% disagree or are opposed to them due to their perceived impact upon the countryside, while 9% ‘don’t know’.

170 In addition, over a series of tourism business surveys undertaken by Roger Tym & Partners for 12 projects across Scotland and South West England in the period from early 2006 until late 2010, the mean/average response to the surveys stating an adverse impact on tourism might arise from the proposed wind farms was as follows: high adverse (10.3%), medium adverse (6.6%), and low adverse (8.5%) or 25.4% in total, and in terms of EIA definable significant adverse impacts (high and medium), this represents 16.9% (table 16.23).

21

These results contradict previous survey research experience of wind farms elsewhere across Scotland where golf, fishing, and water-based sports do not show any significant levels of adverse impact by business respondents 22

http://www.visitscotland.org/pdf/Windfarm%20Consumer%20Research%20final_docUpdatedx.pdf 23

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/build-more-turbines-poll-shows-public-wants-wind-farms-7814798.html

http://www.visitscotland.org/pdf/Windfarm%20Consumer%20Research%20final_docUpdatedx.pdf





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Table 16.29 Analysis of Wind Farm Tourism Business Surveys (2006-2010) Wind Farm Project Location

Power Output (MW)

Current Status

Survey Date

No Negative Impact %

Low Negative Impact %

Medium Negative Impact %

High Negative Impact %

Positive Impact %

Drumderg 32 Operational 2006 80 8 4 8 0

Calliacher 62 Construction 2006 65 11 9 15 0

Logiealmond 28 Refused 2007 51 12 14 23 0

Achany 46 Operational 2007 72 0 6 22 0

Blackcraig 69 Consented 2007 79 6 6 10 0

Dunoon 18.4 Refused 2008 73 16 7 4 0

Waterhead 72.5 Withdrawn 2008 83 7 2 4 4

3 Moors 18 Refused 2008 67 15 6 8 4

Whitton 20 Planning 2008 84 5 3 3 5

Allt Duine 93 Planning 2010 78 4 8 9 1

Glenkirk 78 Planning 2010 59 13 13 15 0

Edintore 21 Approved 2010 81 4 2 3 10

Mean 72.7 8.5 6.6 10.3 2.0

171 These figures are generally consistent with both the tourism business survey for South Kyle wind farm responses and also those figures found in the comparative research evidence.

172 These projects ranged in size from 20 MW up to 93 MW generating capacity (Table 16.29).

16.6.3 Post Development Evaluation of Built Infrastructure Impact on Tourism

173 There are few examples of post-development research evaluation of the tourism and recreation impacts of built infrastructure, including wind farms and transmission lines. However, those available examples do show that the post-development effects of the development of such infrastructure projects, is limited.

174 The post development evaluation of the tourism impacts from the Scotland to Northern Ireland Interconnector across Ayrshire24 (potentially relevant to South Kyle wind farm due to its geographic proximity) demonstrated that such impacts were limited, there having been only a 2-3% adverse impact on tourism businesses in Ayrshire as a result of the project, a figure very much subsumed within the fluctuations of the local tourism economy.

175 Equally, research in 2006 into the post-development tourism impact of the Artfield Fell Wind farm for Scottish & Southern Energy in Dumfries &

24

Ex-post assessment of the impact of the Scotland-Northern Ireland Electricity Interconnector overhead transmission-line and associated works on the Ayrshire & Arran tourism industry: Roger Tym & Partners for SSE (November 2006) – research evidence submitted to the Beauly to Denny 400kV Transmission Line Upgrading Public Inquiries (2007)



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Galloway25, demonstrated that 90% of respondents to the tourism business survey did not consider that the wind farm had had any impact on their business performance, 3% considered that the wind farm had had a negative effect on their business but only minor, while 7% did not know what the impact had been. In terms of impact upon Dumfries & Galloway tourism as a whole 83% considered that the wind farm had had no impact, 3% that the wind farm had had a medium negative impact and 14% did not know.

176 Similarly, research by the University of the West of England in North Devon26 in 2007, into the attitudes of visitors and tourists towards wind farms, where wind farms have been established for over 10 years, demonstrated that the overwhelming majority of tourists would be unaffected by such developments and indeed that such developments were regarded by a narrow majority of respondents as having a positive impact. The research found that:

“The vast majority of tourists we surveyed in North Devon (87%) stated that the presence of a wind farm would neither encourage nor discourage them from visiting. Of the remaining 13%, slightly more would be encouraged to visit because of the presence of a wind farm. The majority of North Devon respondents thought that the wind farm would have no overall impact on the quality of their experience.”

16.6.4 Research shows Improvement in Recreational Facilities Encourages Greater Usage by Walkers Visitors and other Users

177 There is also evidence from research that improvements in the standards and conditions of facilities encourage greater numbers of visitors and users to participate in recreational activity.

178 Research (2003) into walking carried out in Ayrshire indicated that the most significant factor that influenced the walkers’ choice of route was ‘scenery/views of the countryside’ (25%) closely followed by ‘good paths and tracks to follow’ (18%), and ‘easy to get to or live nearby’ (17%). Similarly, other research (1998) in the Dunkeld and Birnam area of Perthshire also highlighted that the most popular responses to questions on what walkers liked about that local footpath network were that ‘scenery’ was generally important, with respectively 18% of visitors, 24% of local residents, and 30% of other residents, the different target age groups so responding.

179 Thus while the ‘countryside’, ‘scenery’ and ‘views’ are clearly important to visitors generally and walkers specifically, it is evident that wind farm proposals could have some minor impact upon the views of walkers on routes across the wider area as a result of the scenery or views of the countryside being affected. However, the Ayrshire research also demonstrated that that the improvement and upgrading in paths and rights of way can increase the use of those local paths by up to 20%.

180 Thus, in terms of potential mitigation measures where tourism and recreation initiative contributions might include the opportunity to enhance tourism and

25

Ex Post Evaluation of the Impact of Artfield Fell Wind Farm on Dumfries & Galloway Tourism – Roger Tym & Partners for SSE (2006) – research evidence submitted to the Blackcraig wind farm Public Inquiry (2007) 26

‘Wind farms are good for tourism’ - Research news article on the University of the West of England’s website (January 2007) – www.built-environment.uwe.ac.uk

http://www.built-environment.uwe.ac.uk/



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recreation facilities in certain locations, discussions between the developers and the relevant stakeholders might take place to ensure any work would help promote tourism and recreation in the area. Should this type of investment in upgrading certain of the principal paths and routes in the surrounding area occur, perhaps by improving ‘way-marking’ of routes or other measures, a similar scale of user increase might be in prospect, which can balance any possible minor reduction in numbers as a result of the proposed development.

181 Thus, while it is possible that some hill walkers could be discouraged from visiting the area close to a wind farm because they might be able to see the proposed wind farm from the hills they climb and walking paths, it is not the case that all or even significant numbers of hill-walkers, whether either regional/longer distance or local walkers, would perceive the proposals to be a significantly negative element. Some walkers might consider wind farms to provide a feature useful for orientation within the landscape. Indeed, there is no comparative evidence that significant numbers of hill-walkers (or indeed any other type of visitor) would be significantly affected by wind farm development and as a result alter their patterns of walking and recreational activity.

182 In addition, there is a possibility that wind farms themselves can prove to be a destination adding to the area’s tourism product. In the case of Boyndie Wind Farm, the co-operative involved there intends to build a viewing platform to accommodate people visiting the wind farm. Further, elsewhere in the Scottish Borders, Dun Law wind farm is now being used for visitor marketing and promotion on the ‘Things to do in Scottish Borders’ website.

183 In addition, the relatively recent opening of the Whitelee Wind Farm Visitor Centre near Fenwick in East Ayrshire also offers a good example of interpretation facilities explaining the benefits and advantages of renewable and clean technologies.

16.6.5 The Scottish Parliament , Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee, 7th Report 2012. Report on the achievability of the Scottish Government’s renewable energy targets

184 The Scottish Parliament’s Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee was established to consider and report on the Scottish economy, enterprise, energy, tourism and renewables. The committee’s inquiry into ”the achievability of the Scottish Government’s 2020 renewable energy targets, the merits of the targets and what the risks and barriers are to realising them” reported on 21 November, 2012.

185 The committee took evidence from a comprehensive range of interests in the tourism sector. It’s report notes that :

“no witness has provided the committee with robust, empirical evidence, as opposed to anecdotal comment and opinion, that tourism is being negatively affected by the development of renewable projects”.

186 In her contribution to committee proceedings, Professor Cara Aitchison, of the University of Edinburgh, also provided an analysis of previous research on the impact of wind farms on tourism in Scotland, England and Wales. This analysis concluded:



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“The clear consensus is that there has been no measurable economic impact, either positively or negatively, of wind farms on tourism27.”

16.6.6 Conclusion from Comparative Assessment

187 In conclusion, this research helps to further inform the assessment of impact of wind farms on tourism and recreation and strongly indicates that sensitively located wind farms are unlikely to lead to significant adverse impacts upon tourism or recreation in the area, local to the wind farm development.

188 Visitors’ experience of wind farms is now commonplace, and therefore the supposition that visitors’ views will now be more negative towards wind farms is not sustained by any evidence. Given that wind farms and wind turbines are now being used as illustrations in both walking guide books and walking websites in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK, it may be assumed their views are unlikely to be more hostile.

189 Overall, therefore the views of the population at large are generally supportive of onshore wind farms as built structures in the countryside, with only a minority considering that wind farms would have an adverse impact upon tourism and recreation.

16.7 Assessment of Potential Impacts

190 This section assesses the potential economic impacts and benefits from the development of South Kyle Wind Farm, including the construction, operation and maintenance, and de-commissioning phases. We have used an industry standard methodology to calculate the costs and impact based on the level of expenditure per MW typically expended at local, regional, UK and overseas for an onshore wind farm development.28

16.7.1 Construction Phase Impacts

South Kyle would cost approximately £199.7 million to develop and construct (£6.9 million for development and £192.8 million to construct). Vattenfall’s procurement policy involves sourcing local labour and construction material wherever it is possible and cost effective to do so. This would include the use of local transport and plant hire companies to ensure maximum economic benefits accrue to the local community. An estimated 5% of construction expenditure would be spent locally (representing £9.3 million). The areas in which the developer would seek ‘local content’ (employees, services, materials) for construction of the wind farm would be:

concrete production

stone for roads and foundations

electrical skills - metering, connection, switchgear

haulage and storage of long/heavy components

cranes and lorries

27

University of Edinburgh. Written submission to Scottish Parliamentary Inquiry , pages 16-17 28

Garrad Hassan Onshore Wind Study (2010)



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operations and maintenance

miscellaneous services - fencing, landscaping, planting, accommodation, security etc

191 Direct and indirect employment are the principal socio-economic impacts associated with the construction phase. An average of 44 workers will be on site for 30 months (ranging between 20 and 79 depending on the construction phase). Construction personnel will be required for:

access road construction (quarrying, roads, hard-standings, drainage etc)

base construction (steel fixing, joiners, concrete works etc)

cabling

turbine erection

substation construction

16.7.1.1 Direct Employment – Construction Jobs

192 An estimated equivalent of 111 person-years will be required for the construction period. Using industry standard practice we have converted temporary employment into full-time equivalents (FTEs) to equate construction activity to permanent FTE jobs. On this basis 111 person years equates to approximately 11 FTE jobs.29

16.7.1.2 Indirect Employment

193 The level of additional job creation from the construction phase of the project can be estimated using accepted best practice to calculate economic multiplier effects. This effect takes account of supply chain linkages for local goods and services which supports additional employment. This activity will provide additional revenue to local businesses, potential employment creation from this extra trade, and spending on accommodation, food, drink and transport by employees.

194 A number of vehicle movements will be required to transport labour, materials, and plant to and from the wind farm development site. In terms of economic impacts this is likely to lead to opportunities for local companies to capture sub-contractor roles. Expenditure on local goods and services and transportation of materials for construction is included within the assessment of multiplier effects By applying a multiplier value of 2.1930 to the 11 FTE direct jobs, it is estimated that a further 13 FTE indirect and induced jobs would be generated in the wider economy – a total of 24 FTE jobs from construction activity.

29

It is generally accepted in economic appraisals of development schemes that 10 person years of employment is the equivalent of one FTE job. 30

Source: Scottish Government Type 2 Construction Employment Multiplier (2007 Input-Output Tables)



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Table 16.30 Multiplier Effects of Wind Farm Construction – Direct & Indirect Jobs

Estimated FTEs

Regional Multiplier*

Additional Indirect local economy FTEs*

Total estimated net additional employment

(FTEs)*

11 2.19 13 24 * It should be noted that applying this regional multiplier will mean in practice that a number of these jobs may be created in the wider regional economy.

195 Due to the limited presence of wind turbine manufacturing and assembly facilities, it is likely that most of the value linked to orders for the manufactured components of the wind farm would accrue outside the local economy and quite probably outside Scotland. However it is likely that a proportion element of the activities such as ground-works, site clearance and preparation, concrete, cabling, transport, port activities, craneage could be locally or regionally procured, generating benefit to the local area and wider regional economy.

196 Further impacts could result from importing labour from outside the local area to meet construction-related demand. However, it is considered likely that the majority of any imported employees involved in construction would be based locally or take-up temporary accommodation in and around Dalmellington, Carsphairn, Cumnock, New Cumnock and Patna. While impact from the predicted number of construction employees is assessed as being negligible in terms of an EIA scale of significance, the jobs and additional expenditure would be a valuable addition at local level.

197 Such activity may be particularly beneficial in the local and wider area economies which are more dependent upon the construction sector than the Scottish average. The socio-economic baseline also identified a disadvantaged local labour market catchment which could benefit from this development.

198 The additional employment of 24 FTE workers in the regional economy over the wind farm construction period is assessed as a minor positive impact.

16.7.2 Operation and Maintenance Phase Impacts

199 The expected operational lifetime of the wind farm is approximately 25 years. It is estimated that there will be a requirement equivalent to 5-6 permanent staff to operate and maintain South Kyle Wind Farm. During the operational phase, staff will be required at various levels. Operational staff would include management, administration, turbine technicians, and crew dealing with the ongoing maintenance of the roads and other logistical site issues.

200 To estimate net additional direct employment impacts, a low (20%) leakage31

rate and very low (10%) displacement32 rate would be applied33. The proportion of jobs taken up by people from outside the Travel to Work Area (leakage) would be limited as they could be filled by an available

31

Leakage refers to the proportion of employment opportunities accessed by people living outside the area of benefit 32

Displacement is the extent to which activity displaces existing employment and activity elsewhere in the region and nationally 33

http://www.scottish-enterprise.com/~/media/SE/Resources/Documents/ABC/additionality-and-economic-impact-assessment-guidance.ashx





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appropriately skilled labour pool within the area. Due to the nature of the project and the structure of the local labour market, it is unlikely that many similar jobs would be available locally, hence the low displacement rate adopted.

201 As there is no currently agreed multiplier for wind power generation, the Scottish Government’s established Type II multiplier34 for mechanical power equipment of 1.75 is applied as a proxy to estimate indirect employment. Using this method, direct and indirect employment generated from operation and maintenance is estimated to be between 9-11 FTE jobs (5-6 direct FTEs and 4-5 indirect FTEs).

Table 16.31 Multiplier Effects of Wind Farm Operation & Maintenance – Direct & Indirect Jobs

Estimated

FTEs

Regional

Multiplier*

Additional Indirect

local economy FTEs*

Total estimated net additional

employment (FTEs)*

5 - 6 1.75 4-5 9-11

* It should be noted that applying this regional multiplier will mean in practice that a number of these jobs may be created in the wider regional economy

202 The level of annual operational and maintenance expenditure for the proposed project is estimated to be some £5.5 million per annum.35 A Scottish Enterprise commissioned study estimates the level of benefit that typically accrues locally; regionally; nationally and overseas from onshore wind farm operation and maintenance.36 It is estimated that 45% (£3.2m) would be spent in the local area, 32% (£2.3m) would be spent in the rest of Scotland, 14.5% (£1.0m) spent elsewhere in the UK, and 8.5% (£0.6m) spent outside the UK. Over the 25 year operational life of the wind farm, total expenditure within the local area and the rest of Scotland would amount around £138.4 million (at current prices). From this expenditure, there would be many opportunities for Scottish, regional and local companies to supply the various goods and services required for the operation of the wind farm.

203 In Dumfries & Galloway and East Ayrshire, it is likely that that there is available capacity to absorb the on-going operations and maintenance opportunities which would be created . While the numbers of jobs created would be small, in a local economy with an above average dependency upon skilled manual jobs, such new employment would be of benefit and is assessed as a minor positive impact.

16.7.3 Decommissioning Phase Impacts

204 It is estimated that decommissioning would take approximately 12 months, with the removal of all above-ground structures and the reinstatement of the site.

205 No information regarding likely decommissioning costs is currently available. However, information on the broad order costs of decommissioning are available from comparative evidence elsewhere in the industry. Sources on

34

Type II Scottish Government Income Multipliers (2007) - http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Input-Output/IOTIIMults9804 35

Calculated on a per MW basis 36

Garrad Hassan Onshore Wind Study (2010)

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Input-Output/IOTIIMults9804



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the costs of decommissioning wind farms37 tend to focus upon offshore locations due to limited evidence of decommissioning onshore wind farms to date. However, indicative costs are generally estimated to be between 2-3% of total costs. Equally indicative costs suggest c.£27,000 per MW for decommissioning. For the purposes of this assessment the mean level of 2.5% has been adopted. On this basis, decommissioning costs would be approximately £5.2m.

206 This £5.2million decommissioning expenditure would support approximately 49 temporary construction jobs - 5 FTEs. This is calculated using a conversion factor of £106,468 per construction job38 and the equivalent of 10 construction jobs to create 1 FTE job.

Table 16.32 Multiplier Effects of Wind Farm Decommissioning – Direct & Indirect Jobs

Estimated FTEs

Regional Multiplier*

Additional Indirect local economy FTEs*

Total estimated net additional employment (FTEs)*

5 2.19 6 11 * It should be noted that applying this regional multiplier will mean in practice that a number of these jobs may be created in the wider regional economy

207 As in the construction phase, expenditure on local goods and services and transportation of materials for decommissioning will also have multiplier effects on the local and wider economy (see Table 16.32). By applying a multiplier similar to that assumed at the construction stage, it is estimated a further 6 FTEs would be created though indirect and induced effects , giving a total of 11 FTE jobs generated through decommissioning.

208 The generation of 11 FTE jobs over the decommissioning period is assessed as a minor positive impact.

209 In total, it is estimated that the South Kyle Wind Farm will generate 44-46 net additional employment opportunities in the local and wider area in its lifetime (21-22 FTE direct jobs and a further 23-24 FTE indirect and induced jobs). The phased impacts are shown in Table 16.33 below.

Table 16.33 Total Employment from the Wind Farm – Direct & Indirect Jobs

Development

Phase

Estimated

Direct FTEs

Regional

Multiplier

Additional

Indirect local

economy FTEs

Total estimated

net additional

FTE

employment

Construction 11 2.19 13 24

Maintenance 5-6 1.75 4-5 9-11

Decommissioning 5 2.19 6 11

Total39

21-22 - 23-24 44-46

37

Optimisation through conceptual variation of a baseline wind farm-ECN 2002 and Scroby Sands Wind Farm-E:ON UK (2004) 38

Average construction expenditure to support 1 construction FTE in Dumfries & Galloway and East Ayrshire (Source: Scottish Government Local Authority Labour Market Data and RTP/PBA analysis) 39

May not sum due to rounding



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16.7.4 Wider Socio-economic Benefits

210 In terms of potential supply chain spin-offs, wind energy development provides opportunities for the involvement of local, regional and Scottish suppliers in a range of activities, including research and development, design, project management, civil engineering, component fabrication/manufacture, installation and maintenance. There is expertise in all of these areas in the wider region, although a full wind energy supply chain covering all aspects of wind turbine component manufacture has not yet been developed within the region or indeed in Scotland as a whole. Scotland currently houses wind turbine tower and base manufacturing plants in Argyll & Bute, Fife, and in the Highlands respectively.

211 Development of the South Kyle Wind Farm would have positive spin-off effects on the development of the renewables sector in Dumfries & Galloway and more generally in Scotland. With Vattenfall’s intention to source as much of the manufactured elements a locally as possible, employment impacts may also be generated through the manufacturing or assembly of wind turbine towers in Scotland.

212 Demand from development of the scheme would further support production and employment in Scotland, providing a boost to Scottish industry and Scotland’s production capacity. Strengthening Scotland’s industrial base, particularly in an industry where global demand is growing, improves the ability of Scottish firms to compete in world markets, in turn boosting Scotland’s economy.

213 The key consideration in this context is that with an increasing number of wind farm schemes either operational, under development or having gained consent in Scotland the commercial viability and with it job prospects amongst Scottish firms improve. Cluster benefits in the industry increase where firms are supported by final demand and intermediate demand. The net effect is to increase business and employment opportunities within Scotland’s renewable energy sector, boosting the performance of local and national economies. The majority of wind farm developers in Scotland have expressed an intention to source from local suppliers where possible and would welcome increased capacity on the supply side.

214 In addition, during the construction process there will be opportunities where those employed will develop skills that will be of benefit to the local economy and to local businesses in the longer term. Further, employment generated through the development will contribute to diversifying the local economy and help support the retention of the working age population.

215 The impact of the South Kyle Wind Farm project is assessed as having a minor positive impact upon the regional and Scotland wide renewables supply chain.

16.7.5 Community Benefit Fund

216 The developer would provide a voluntary contribution to a community benefit scheme related to the wind farm. However, the scheme would only be brought into effect should the proposed development be awarded planning consent and become operational. Details of the terms of the fund and its operation would be agreed at a later date.



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16.7.6 Business Rates Revenue Benefits

217 Business rates revenue from the development and operation of the wind farm is estimated to be between £20.6 million- £22.1 million over its lifetime. This is estimated from comparative experience of other wind farms in Scotland having rateable values of £12,015-£12,840 per MW (at 2010 prices). Potentially South Kyle Wind Farm’s rateable value would be approximately £1,802,250 -£1,926,000.

218 The business rate poundage in Scotland for 2012-2013 is £0.458 for properties with a rateable value of >£35,000. This indicative rateable value would generate annual business rate revenue of between £825,431 - £882,108.40 Over the wind farm’s 25 year operational lifetime , this would represent a total of £45.1 - £48.2 million, assuming constant rateable value and rate poundage over that period (at 2011 prices).

219 Non-domestic business rates are pooled jointly at a national level and are not disbursed locally, with payments made by the Scottish Government to local authorities based upon a complex ‘needs’ assessment. However, the non-domestic business rate receipts drawn from the national pool in Dumfries & Galloway and East Ayrshire in 2010-2011 were approximately £59.5million and £25.4million respectively. Estimated annual revenue from the proposed wind farm of some £825,431 - £882,108 would represent at most only 1.4- 1.5% of Dumfries & Galloway’s total and 3.2%-3.5% of East Ayrshire’s total. Hence the business rate revenue generated from the wind farm is assessed as being of minor positive impact locally and of negligible significance nationally.

16.7.7 Land Owner Reinvestment Benefits

220 Land owner benefits would accrue through rental income paid by the wind farm developer/generator for both ground rent and a percentage of revenue generated by the wind farm. These rental payments are generally commercially confidential. However, the scale of the proposed development is such that it would represent a valuable long term consistent addition to local income. It is not possible at this time to estimate the proportion of such revenue which will be retained and spent in the local economy, but it is likely that a proportion will be reinvested in the local area and accrue to the local economy for the benefit of local businesses and to support local employment.

221 Such rental income is likely to be regarded as of minor to moderate positive impact on the economy at a local level.

16.7.8 Mitigation and Monitoring

16.7.8.1 Construction Period

222 The following socio-economic mitigation measures are proposed for South Kyle Wind Farm.

40

This is equivalent to the annual business rate revenue generated by a large Tesco Extra or industrial complex (Source: Scottish Assessor & Electoral Registration Officer Dumfries and Galloway Council)



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16.7.8.2 Potential Procurement and Skills Initiatives

223 Potential supply chain spin-offs for local businesses represent a key element of mitigation. An important Vattenfall aim is to maximise the benefit to the communities, in which wind farms are built. Amongst ways in which this can be achieved is to use local companies to work on the surveying, construction, operation and decommissioning of the wind farm.

224 To achieve this, the developer would aim to do the following:

give preference to local contractors, and other contractors who sub-

contract a lot of their work to local companies

remove barriers for local involvement – help with establishing health,

safety, environment, quality management systems and understanding

contracts

setting up appropriate training courses

compiling a list of local companies interesting in working on the project

and a list of individuals with their skills from the locality and make these

lists available to major contractors

procurement of goods and services from the local or regional economy

where possible and commercially sound

225 Further, Vattenfall would endeavour to work with the local community to ensure there are no barriers placed in the way of participation. Potential barriers can be removed by direct contact with the developer’s advisors, independent business advisors, workshops, seminars and courses. The common barriers, which Vattenfall would seek to remove would include:

unfamiliarity with the contracting framework

lack of quality management systems

lack of familiarity with top-end health and safety management

lack of familiarity with environmental management systems

lack of understanding of insurance issues and inability to source

insurances

lack of staff with the correct training or certification

16.7.8.3 Potential Skills and Training Initiatives

226 In developing local skills it is considered feasible that during the construction process there will be opportunities where those employed will develop skills that will be of benefit to the local economy in the longer term. One example of this might be through the enablement of smaller scale community renewable energy developments. Other examples might include project management which could be beneficial in terms of ensuring that local companies or individuals are much better placed to compete for future construction work in the wider area or increasing the number of new starts and supporting small businesses that can benefit from work related to the wind farm in establishing a business. Once established these firms or individuals will be in a stronger position to obtain ongoing work elsewhere. Should this occur there will be an indirect positive impact upon the local



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economy derived from the development, additional to those impacts set out above.

16.7.8.4 Permanent Socio-economic Mitigation

227 Every effort would be made in offering local employment opportunities in terms of on-going maintenance to the local population during the lifetime of the scheme, with wherever possible priority given to the procurement of on-going maintenance and operational activities given to locally based contractors.

16.7.8.5 Potential Visitor Promotion and Educational Initiatives

228 The proposed wind farm when operational has the potential to attract interest from visitors to the area and could be a useful educational resource, assisting in raising awareness of climate change and clean energy solutions among the local and wider community. Initiatives to involve the local community, schools and other educational authorities, and working with Vattenfall would be investigated as part of the Community Benefit package discussions.

16.7.9 Cumulative and Residual Effects

16.7.9.1 Cumulative Effects

229 In terms of socio-economic issues it is considered that there would be no significant cumulative socio-economic effects experienced within the economy within the study area.

16.7.9.2 Residual Effects

230 The following sets out the nature and scale of residual impacts experienced by the local and sub-regional economy as a result of the development of South Kyle Wind Farm, and include those for both the construction phase and operational lifetime of the wind farm.

Negative/Adverse o no adverse socio-economic impacts or effects are identified

through the assessment Minor Positive:

o the creation of 11 FTE direct jobs during construction, with a further 13 FTE jobs through the multiplier, or a total of 24 FTE construction jobs during the construction process;

o the creation of 5-6 FTE direct jobs created during the 25yr operational period, with a further 4-5 FTE indirect jobs created through the multiplier, a total of 9-11 FTE jobs

o the overall effect of an injection into the local economy of construction expenditure and operating expenditure over the 25 year operational life of the wind farm. The resulting expenditure and direct and indirect employment generation would have a positive impact upon the local economy



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o the contribution to non-domestic business rates revenue of £20.6 - £22.1million over the 25yr lifetime of the project

o the potential for reinvestment of wind farm revenue and in turn local economic benefit by the landowner

o the Community Fund will bring positive benefits to local residents and improve local community facilities

o it is also likely there will be training, and educational benefits to local schools and residents

16.7.10 Summary

16.7.10.1 Positive Economic and Community Benefits

231 The positive impacts which would accrue through the proposals would be:

the creation of a total of 11 FTE construction jobs during the construction process; with a similar number of jobs created during the decommissioning phase

the creation of a total of 44-46 FTE jobs over the 25yrs of operation

the overall effect of an injection into the local economy of construction expenditure and operating expenditure over the 25 year operational life of the wind farm, with the resulting expenditure and direct and indirect employment generation having a positive impact upon the local economy

the contribution to non-domestic business rates revenue of £20.6 - £22.1million over the 25yr lifetime of the project

the potential for reinvestment of wind farm revenue and in turn local economic benefit by the landowner

the Community Fund will bring positive benefits to local residents and improve local community facilities

it is also likely there will be training, and educational benefits to local schools and residents

16.7.10.2 Mitigation

232 Mitigation measures would include:

local opportunities to procure for construction work on the site

road improvements for transport to and from the site

improving path access into the wind farm and surrounding area

timing of construction works to avoid peak hour traffic and to avoid congestion


233 There are no significant adverse post-mitigation effects noted.

234 Minor positive post-mitigation effects would include improved employment, training and expenditure opportunities in the local and sub-regional economy.



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16.8 Tourism and Recreational impact

16.8.1 Impact Assessment

235 This section deals with the impact which the proposed wind farm would have on tourism and recreational resources within the study area. This includes all aspects including businesses, estates, activity centres, accommodation providers, tourist routes, walking routes, rights of way, cycle routes, climbing routes, golf and fishing (i.e. lochs and rivers) present within the study area.

16.8.1.1 Definition and Assessment of Recreational Impact

236 Recreational behaviour will be affected where one or more of the following occurs through a development, and which might result in recreational users possibly changing their habits or activities. Factors which might lead to such a change in behaviour include loss, closure, or diversion of routes; obstructing access routes; enhancing access; reduction in amenity or intrusion; enhancement in amenity; and changes in setting and context of the recreational resource.

237 The reason behind an impact upon recreational users being major or moderate relates to the proximity of the wind farm, visibility of the wind farm from the resource at all points, diversion due to the wind farm’s presence, significance of the resource in terms of usage and the type of resource e.g. an ‘in town centre’ indoor recreational facility compared to a hill top view point.

238 In each instance the recreational impact assessment highlights the possible worst case adverse / negative and positive impact that the proposed wind farm could have on the recreational resources within the study area. Major and moderate adverse impacts are considered as significant.

16.8.1.2 Impact on Tourist and Recreational Resources

239 The following impact assessment highlights and summarises the possible adverse and beneficial impacts that the proposed wind farm could have on tourism and recreation resource users within the study area. A detailed impact analysis is contained within Appendices 16.3 – 16.7 (Volume 5).

16.8.2 Assessment of Impact on Tourism Business Prospects

240 This analysis provides a summary of the key impact findings of the survey of local businesses undertaken by Roger Tym & Partners during March and April 2012. The survey population includes all businesses which could be considered to derive part of or all of their trade from tourism, situated within an approximate 15 km radius of the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm. This largely covers the settlements of Dalmellington, Bellsbank, New Cumnock and Cumnock. The survey allows us to obtain a more detailed understanding of the likely impacts of the proposed South Kyle Wind Farm.



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16.8.2.1 Definition of Scale of Impact on Business

241 The survey sought the respondents’ opinion on the likely impacts of the proposed wind farm on their business performance (Figure 16.10).

242 The scale of adverse impact of the wind farm on both the individual business and on tourism in the area generally was defined as follows:

minor / Low Impact = <10%

moderate / Medium Impact = 10-15%

major / High Impact = >15%

243 These definitions of impact are based on wide market experience where in tourism related business surveys across Scotland and elsewhere, respondents have generally stated that reductions in turnover of 15% or more are critical to business sustainability/survival, but 10-14% represents a moderate impact which can be recouped through marketing, cost saving and similar market responses, and <10 is subsumed within general changes in trading conditions.

244 The percentage change is based upon a range of possible measures – turnover, profitability or visitor numbers. Businesses are generally able to provide a definitive answer to this question; hence the survey seeks a combined metric of quantitative measurement. However, the quantum change from the baseline position is taken to be the scale of impact as a result of the development of the proposed wind farm.

245 In addition where tourism businesses are generally perceived as being ‘marginal’ or ‘low margin’ such businesses are often supported and / or cross-subsidised by second or third sources of income. Thus when the main tourist business is affected by a downturn in turnover, the business’ secondary income remains unaffected in a more resilient entity than is generally perceived likely.



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16.8.2.2 Views of the Impact of South Kyle Wind Farm on Business Prospects

Figure 16.10 Impact of Development on local Business Prospects

Source: RTP 2012

246 All 34 respondents commented on the impact they felt the wind farm would have on their business. The vast majority (70%) considered that it would have no impact and a further 6% indicated they would expect it to have a low of minimal impact on business performance. Most felt that the wind farm was too far away from their business to affect them directly (Figure 16.10).

247 12% of respondents suggested to varying degrees that the wind farm could have positive impacts on business trading – principally through workers coming to the area during the construction period.

248 12% of respondents considered that the wind farm would have either a medium to high adverse impact on their business. In total, 2 businesses and 1 sporting club identified predicted high adverse impacts (1 from Patna, and 2 from Dalmellington). The profile of these respondents is a fishing club, a tourist attraction and an inn. Reasons cited included:

views/scenery will be ruined. Visually intrusive from Loch Doon

people go to the area for peace and quiet and the wind farm will affect this

it is an area of historic value with regard to Robbie Burns and should be protected

the wind farm could have impact on the dark sky and will render the new observatory pointless and a waste of money



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16.8.2.3 Impact of South Kyle Wind Farm on Ayrshire and Dumfries & Galloway Tourism

Figure 16.11 Impact of Development on Ayrshire/Dumfries & Galloway

Tourism Prospects

Source: RTP 2012

249 Businesses were also asked to indicate what they expected the impact might be on Ayrshire and Dumfries & Galloway tourism in general. Again, the majority felt it would have no impact on tourism and visitor numbers, with a further 7% considering any adverse impact to be low or minimal. Some respondents felt that tourists/visitors were generally not put off coming to an area which has wind farms (Figure 16.11).

250 A medium adverse impact was expected by 17% of respondents and a further 23% felt it would have a high adverse impact on Ayrshire/Dumfries & Galloway tourism. As mentioned above, respondents considered that there could be negative visual impacts, with the landscape being spoilt, which would deter tourists/visitors from coming to the area. Some respondents considered that the turbines will scar the landscape. Others felt that there are already too many turbines in the area. Another respondent felt that the wind farm will have a high impact on walking and attracting tourists to the area.

16.8.2.4 Conclusions on the Business Survey

251 Of the 75 businesses surveyed, 34 responded to the tourism business survey questionnaire, giving a 45% response rate. The majority were from Cumnock, the area with the highest tourism business concentration. Many of the businesses were small/medium in size.

252 Many of the respondents were self-catering accommodation providers or operators of bars and pubs.

253 The likely potential impacts on local tourism businesses were as follows:

70% said their business would experience no adverse impact from the proposed wind farm



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6% said their business would experience a low adverse impact from the proposed wind farm

3% said their business would experience a medium adverse impact from the proposed wind farm

9% said their business would experience a high adverse impact from the proposed wind farm

12% said their business would experience a positive impact from the proposed wind farm

254 The likely potential impacts on Ayrshire/ Dumfries & Galloway tourism were as follows:

53% said their business would experience no adverse impact from the proposed wind farm

7% said their business would experience a low adverse impact from the proposed wind farm

17% said their business would experience a medium adverse impact from the proposed wind farm

23% said their business would experience a high adverse impact from the proposed wind farm.

16.8.3 Impact on Tourist and Recreational Resources

255 The following impact assessment highlights and summarises the possible, worst-case adverse and beneficial impacts that the proposed wind farm could have on tourism and recreation resource users in the study area.

16.8.3.1 Principal Settlements

256 There are 6 principal settlements in the study area. The findings are as follows:

33% (2) would experience no impact from the wind farm

67% (4) would experience a minor adverse impact from the wind farm

16.8.3.2 Principal Tourist Routes

257 The study area has 13 tourist routes, the estimated impacts upon which would be follows:



16.8.3.3 Principal Walking Routes

258 There are 22 promoted paths/heritage paths within the study area which are dealt with here.





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16.8.3.4 Hill Tracks

259 There are 8 hill tracks contained within the study area. The findings were as follows:



16.8.3.5 Rights of Way

260 There are 72 RofWs contained within the study area. The findings were as follows:



4% (3) would experience a moderate adverse impact from the wind farm

16.8.3.6 Core Paths

261 There are 101 core paths contained within the study area. The findings were as follows:



4% (4) would experience a moderate adverse impact from the wind farm.

16.8.3.7 Cycle Routes

262 There are 9 cycle routes contained within the study area. The findings were as follows:




16.8.3.8 Horse Riding Centres and Routes

263 There are 2 horse riding centres contained within the study area.

50% (1) would experience no impact from the wind farm.


16.8.3.9 Golf Courses

264 There are 2 golf courses contained within the study area. The findings were as follows:


50% (1) would experience a minor adverse impact from the wind farm.



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16.8.3.10 Fishing

265 There are 13 fishing rivers and lochs contained within the study area which are dealt with here. The findings were as follows:

62% (8) would experience no impact from the wind farm.

31% (4) would experience a minor adverse impact from the wind farm.

7% (1) would experience a moderate adverse impact from the wind farm.

16.8.3.11 Activity Centres

266 There are 2 activity centres within the study area, both of which would experience no impact from the wind farm.

16.8.3.12 Estates

267 Of the 2 estates within the study area, the impact findings were as follows:


50% (1) would experience a minor impact from the wind farm

16.8.3.13 Events

268 Of the 10 events within the study area, all of which would experience no impact from the wind farm.

16.8.3.14 Forest Parks / Nature Reserves

269 There is one nature reserve in the study area, which would experience a minor impact from the wind farm.

16.8.3.15 Visitor Attractions

270 Of the 9 visitor attractions within the study area, the impact findings were as follows:


33% (3) would experience a minor impact from the wind farm

16.8.3.16 Conclusions on Impacts

271 Table 16.34 sets out the nature of potential impacts on tourist and recreational resources from the development of the wind farm by type of resource.



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Table 16.34 Summary Impact of Proposed Wind Farm on Tourism and Recreation Resources

Number of Each Facility

Possible Major Adverse Impact

Possible Moderate Adverse Impact

Possible Minor Adverse Impact

No Impact Likely

Principal Settlements

6 - - 4 2

Principal Tourist Routes

22 - - 9 13

Principal Walking Routes

17 - - 4 13

Hill Tracks 8 - - 3 5

Rights of Way 72 - 2 26 44

Core Paths 101 - 4 32 65

Cycle Routes 9 - 1 1 7

Horse Riding Centres

2 - - 1 1

Golf Courses 2 - - 1 1

Fishing 13 1 4 8

Activity Centres 2 - - 1 1

Estates 2 - - 1 1

Events 10 - - - 10

Forest Parks / Nature Reserves

1 - - 1 -

Visitor Attractions 9 - - 3 6

Total 275 - 8 91 176

Total % 100% 0% 3% 33% 64%

Source:RTP

272 Table 16.35 identifies the possible major and moderate and hence significant

impacts of the proposed wind farm on the users of the tourism and recreation resources in the Study Area.



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Table 16.35 Location of Possible Major and Moderate Impacts

Facility Length (km) / Height

(m)

Type Start and Finish Links to

Paths/ Roads

Distance at

nearest point

Impact Nature of Impact

Water of Deugh

32km Fishing River

Rises on the eastern slopes of Windy Standard to the north of Cairnsmore of Carsphairn on the border with East Ayrshire.

- 0km Moderate The river runs through parts of the development site. 45-50 turbines can be seen at sections of the river.

DS2 - Rights of Way

South of Milray Hill DS1 0km Moderate The route runs through parts of the development

site. 45-50 turbines can be seen at sections

of the route.

D35 - Rights of Way

South of Carsphairn - 10km Moderate 45-50 turbines can be seen the majority of the

route.

448 - Core Path

NW of Waterhead Hill

504 0km Moderate The route runs through parts of the development


of the route.

449 - Core Path

NW of Waterhead Hill

504 0km Moderate The route runs through parts of the development


of the route.

536 - Core Path

South of Milray Hill 450,441 0km Moderate The route runs through parts of the development


of the route.

504 - Core Path

South of Milray Hill 536 0km Moderate The route runs through parts of the development


of the route.

Coalfield Cycle Route

70km Cycle Route

Dalmellington to Muirkirk

A70, A713

0km Moderate Part of this route runs through the

development site. 45-50

turbines can be seen at sections

of this route.



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16.8.4 Tourism & Recreation Mitigation

16.8.4.1 Construction Period

273 The following tourism and recreation mitigation measures are proposed for South Kyle Wind Farm.

274 Where possible, construction materials would be sourced from on-site to avoid importation or exportation of materials, limiting the number of traffic movements on the surrounding road network and hence minimising any adverse impacts upon visitors.

275 Transport of abnormal loads would be programmed wherever practicable to avoid peak visitor or tourist periods, and indeed at busy or rush hour periods to ensure visitors avoid slow moving traffic and congestion on delivery and movement of construction materials and this would act as mitigation of the effect of the proposals on particularly sensitive locations, tourist/visitor viewpoints, and road corridors.

276 Where possible, construction traffic would be programmed to avoid other traffic on key routes during the time of festivals and other events of note. This would be achieved through discussion between Vattenfall/contractors and the council and festival organisers to ensure that proximity to such key festivals/events would be avoided or alternative routes chosen for construction access away from routes used by the festivals/events.

277 Construction of the wind farm would be programmed wherever practicable to avoid particularly sensitive locations, recreational user viewpoints, and corridors at peak user periods, and would act as mitigation of the effect of the proposals. Where possible construction works would be programmed to avoid significant construction traffic on key routes in the proximity of recreational peak periods and events of note.

278 The contractors would ensure ongoing safe access to all key walking and cycling routes, etc, and provide an alternative where any recreational routes were closed temporarily due to construction activities, or where obstruction or diversion was required.

279 For any construction activities which temporarily affect any recreational fishing locations, alternative nearby fishing locations will be clearly publicised.

16.8.4.2 Permanent Tourism & Recreation Mitigation

280 Mitigation in visual terms comes through appropriate design, and the design process is set out in Chapter 9, Landscape and Visual Assessment.

281 As mentioned above, a fishing location, two rights of way, four core paths and a cycle route may be moderately affected by the Development. However, it is predicted that any severance or disturbance to these receptors would only be temporary and limited to the construction phase. Any physical features disrupted during construction will be reinstated. Therefore, no further permanent mitigation is required. The Development will create additional walking routes via the paths connecting the turbines. As with Whitelee Wind Farm this would create additional accessibility in the area.

282 Interpretation facilities could be stationed within the development envelope highlighting routes within the site as well as links to other routes in the wider path network.



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283 The following sets out the nature and scale of residual impacts experienced by users of the tourism and recreational resources as a result of the development of South Kyle Wind Farm, and accounting for the consequences of the proposed mitigation measures as appropriate, and include those for both the construction phase and operational lifetime of the wind farm.

Minor Negative/Adverse

increased use of the area for recreation could potentially lead to greater environmental disturbance

increased use of the overall path network would increase the maintenance costs overall

minor effects on both regional tourism numbers and visitors to the area as a result of the wind farm having a potential negative or adverse effect upon their enjoyment of their visit or trip, which might result in some visitors not returning to the area in the future

Minor Positive

increased accessibility in the area could lead to an increase in income for recreational businesses around the area

the presence of permanent tracks around the site that would be subject to access under the Right to Roam legislation may lead to greater recreational use of the area

increased income to local businesses involved in maintenance of the paths

increased income to local tourism facilities from increased visitor numbers to the area, assuming that the wind farm would act as an attractor to new visitors

16.8.4.4 Recreational Impact Summary

284 In summary, there is a large variety of different activities and facilities that visitors and other recreational users can make use of and undertake within the study area. These include attractions such as a distillery, a heritage centre, golf courses, and a number of different walking routes.

285 Those facilities which would experience a moderate and hence significant adverse impact, comprise a fishing location, two rights of way and sixteen core paths.

286 The facilities or receptors, which experience adverse impacts, are those with the clearest and unbroken views of the proposed wind farm and/or run though parts of the development site.

287 Of the 275 different facilities within the study area, 97% (267) would experience either a minor or no impact. 3% (8) of the facilities would experience a significant adverse impact from the proposed wind farm. However, there is no research evidence (see section on Review of Socio-Economic Impact of Wind Farms in the UK ) to show that the type or level of visual impact experienced here by visitors would be likely to result in a significant proportion not returning to the area, and hence resulting in an adverse economic outcome or effect.

288 It can therefore be concluded that the impact of the proposed wind farm on the recreation facilities in the study area would be limited and only of minor scale.



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16.8.5 Overall Conclusion

16.8.5.1 Socio-economic

289 The socio-economic assessment shows that the proposed development will have a minor beneficial socio-economic impact through temporary construction employment and indirect employment supported through supply chain linkages in the wider economy, and also job creation during the 25 year operation and maintenance period. The wind farm would also inject construction and operating expenditure into the local economy. The resulting expenditure and direct and indirect employment generation would have a beneficial impact upon the local and regional economy over the lifetime of the project.

290 The positive impacts which would accrue through the proposals would be:

the creation of a total of 11 FTE construction jobs during the construction process

the creation of a total of 44-46 FTE jobs over the 25 years of operation

the overall effect of an injection into the local economy of construction expenditure and operating expenditure over the 25 year operational life of the wind farm, with the resulting expenditure and direct and indirect employment generation having a positive impact upon the local economy

the contribution to non-domestic business rates revenue of £20.6 - £22.1million over the 25 year lifetime of the project

the potential for reinvestment of wind farm revenue and in turn local economic benefit by the landowner

the Community Fund will bring positive benefits to local residents and improve local community facilities

it is also likely there will be training, and educational benefits to local schools and residents

291 The proposed development would not result in any significant adverse socio-economic impacts or residual effects.

16.8.5.2 Tourism and recreation

292 The majority of tourism related businesses stated that South Kyle Wind Farm would have ‘no impact’ on their trading performance either during the temporary construction or permanent operation and maintenance phases, while a sizable proportion of survey respondents stated it would have a positive impact through increased trade from construction workers.

293 The tourism and recreation assessment also shows that South Kyle Wind Farm is likely to have a moderate and adverse impact on a limited number (3%) of tourism and recreation resources (Table 16.34 and Table 16.35), which can be reduced through mitigation.