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11
Finance and Logistics
John H. Vande Vate
Spring, 2005
22
The Real Contest
• Financing (Money) is the fuel of business
• Everyone competes in the financial markets
• Logistics only really matters to top management if it improves financial performance
33
What Drives Share Price
• Revenue Growth
• Profitability
• Capital Utilization
• Cash Flow
44
Profitability• Net Operating Profit after Taxes as a % of
Revenues (NOPAT)Revenues
- Raw Materials
Wages and Salaries
Logistics Costs
Utilities
Insurance
Taxes
NOPAT
• Profitability = NOPAT/Revenues
55
Example
• Adtran www.adtran.com• Huntsville, Alabama Telecom supplier• NOPAT = (in millions)
Revenues – Operating Expenses – Taxes = $345.725 - $308.2 - $7.401 = $30.123
Profitability or Keep (NOPAT/Revenues)30.123/345.725 = 8.7%
66
Revenues
Operating Expenses: raw materials, labor, etc.
Operating Expenses: marketing, promotion,
administrative overhead
Operating Expenses: Guess that would be R&D
Net Operating Profit Before Taxes
Taxes
77
Capital Utilization
• Revenues as a % of Capital InvestedCash & Cash EquivalentsAccts ReceivableInventoryOther Current AssetsFixed Assets (Property, Plants and Equipment)
Capital• Speed = Revenues/Capital
88
Total Assets
Less Non-Interest Bearing Current Liabilities
99
Adtran’s Speed
• Revenues = $345.725 Million
• Capital = $521.213 - $32.045 Million
= $489.168 Million
• Speed = $345.725/$489.168 = .71
1010
ROI = Margin*Speed
Margin = NOPAT/Revenue
Speed = Revenue/Capital
6%
19%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Dell Cisco
MarginMargin
ROI
4.9
0.7
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Dell Cisco
SpeedSpeed
Margin Speed ROIDell 6% 5 30%
Cisco 19% 0.7 13%
1111
Capital Charge
• Annualizing Capital Investments
• Cost of Capital
• Combination of – Fair return to bond holders (creditors)– Fair return to share holders (owners)
• Which return is higher?
• Why?
1212
Economic Profit or EVA
Revenue
Operating Expenses
Taxes
NOPAT
Capital Charge
Economic Profit
-
-
Economic Profit measures whether a company is creating, preserving or destroying value
1313
Capital Utilization
(in Millions) Wal-Mart Kmart Sears 03 Wal-Mart Kmart Sears 03Revenue $256,329 $17,072 $41,124 1.000$ 1.000$ 1.000$ Operating Expenses $243,656 $16,661 $37,998 0.951$ 0.976$ 0.924$ Operating Income $12,673 $411 $3,126 0.049$ 0.024$ 0.076$ Non-Operating Income (Expense) $2,516 $92 $27 0.010$ 0.005$ 0.001$ Net Operating Profit Before Taxes $15,189 $503 $3,153 0.059$ 0.029$ 0.077$ Cash Taxes $5,516 $194 $1,089 0.022$ 0.011$ 0.026$ Net Operating Profit After Taxes $9,673 $309 $2,064 0.038$ 0.018$ 0.050$ % NOPAT / Revenue 3.77% 1.81% 5.02% Capital $73,861 $4,312 $17,947 0.288$ 0.253$ 0.436$ Cost of Capital 10% 10% 10%Capital Charge $7,386 $431 $1,795 0.029$ 0.025$ 0.044$ % Capital Charge / Revenue 2.88% 2.53% 4.36% Economic Profit $2,287 ($122) $270 0.009$ (0.007)$ 0.007$ % Economic Profit / Revenue 0.89% -0.72% 0.66%
1414
Operating Aspects of Capital
• Inventory
• Accounts Receivable
• Accounts Payable
• ...
1515
Days Purchases Outstanding
• Days Purchases Outstanding = Accounts Payable/Cost of Goods Sold per day
• Cost of Goods Sold per day is $468K/day
• Adtran = $17.789/$0.468/day = 38 days
1616
Adtran Example
Purchases
1717
Estimate of the value of those goods
$170.79 Million Annually or
$468 K per day
1818
Adtran Days of Inventory
• Inventory = $39.926 Million
• Value of one days sales = $468K/day
• Days of sales in Inventory = $39.926/$0.468/day = ~85 days
1919
Adtran Example Inventory
2020
Days Sales Outstanding
• Accounts Receivable/Daily Revenues
• Adtran
$43.342 Million in Receivables
$345.725 Million in Annual Sales $0.947 Million in sales per dayDays Sales Outstanding =
$43.342/$0.947/day = 45.8 days
2121
Adtran Example Receivables
2222
The Cash Operating Cycle• Days Receivables Outstanding
Days in Inventory
Days Purchases Outstanding
Cash Operating Cycle-Number of net days from the time a dollar is paid for raw
materials to the time the finished goods are paid for.
• Adtran– Purchases = 45.8 + 85 – 38 = 92.8 days
2323
We must Finance the Cash Operating Cycle
• Not just the inventory!• How to reduce the Cash Operating Cycle?
– Payment terms– Just-in-time
• Faster Production• Reduced Inventory• Faster Modes• Closer to Vendors/Customers
– Credit terms
2424
Extremes
65(165)
52(51)
75(38)
32(79)
45(25)
(200) (150) (100) (50) - 50 100 150 200 250
Kodak
Solectron
Cray
Dell
Northrop
Days in Inventory
Days Sales Outstanding
Days Payments Outstanding
2525
Total Shareholder Return
• Start with 1 share on a given date,
• Reinvest the dividends to acquire additional shares
• Stock splits add shares
• Compare value of investment today with value at the start
2626
Adtran Example
• TSR from Jan 1, 1999 to Dec 31, 2004• On Jan 4th, 1999 share price was $8.74• Paid a $2.15 cash dividend on July 29, 2003
when the price was $48.72 so we were able to purchase an additional 2.15/48.72 = 0.044 shares
• Paid a $0.15 cash dividend on October 29, 2003 when the price was $68.61 so we received 1.044*$0.15 and were able to purchase and additional 0.002 shares
2727
Adtran Example Cont’d• 2:1 stock split on December 16, 2003 so we
now have 2*(1+0.044+0.002) =2.092 shares• Paid a $0.08 cash dividend on January 30,
2004 when the price was $34.42 so we were able to purchase
2.092*0.08/34.42 = .005 additional shares• Paid a $0.08 cash dividend on April 30, 2004
when the price was $24.52 so we were able to purchase
2.097*0.08/24.52 = .007 additional shares
2828
Adtran Example Cont’d
• Paid a $0.08 cash dividend on July 30, 2004 when the price was $26.71 so we were able to purchase
2.104*0.08/26.71 = .006 additional shares• Paid a $0.08 cash dividend on October 29,
2004 when the price was $21.60 so we were able to purchase
2.110*0.08/21.60 = .008 additional shares• Closed at $19.14 on December 31, 2004
2929
TSR
• Started with $8.74 on January 4, 1999
• Ended with 2.118 shares each worth $19.14 on December 31, 2004
• Starting value $8.74
• Ending Value $40.54
• TSR = (40.54-8.74)/8.74 = 364%
• CAGR = 24%
3030
An ExampleTotal Shareholder Return (from 1/1/99) vs Days of Inventory
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Days of Inventory
TS
R %
__
Chevron Texaco closed on 12/4/04 at $53 4/8
This analysis suggests that based on speed only it should have closed at around $115 7/8