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11
Finance and SCM
John H. Vande Vate
Fall, 2009
22
Today’s Challenges• Low Cost Competitors
– Reducing Margins– Harder to grow sales
• Shorter Product Life Cycles– Less time to recoup investment
• Greater Product Segmentation– Harder to achieve economies of scale– Higher capital demands
• Competing for Capital in Global Markets– Investors can go anywhere
33
The Bottom Line• Financial Performance is
– Harder to achieve– More essential than ever
Return On Equity:Non-Financial Services Companies*
*Based on a sample of approximately 2,000 publicly traded companies throughout the world in non-financial services industries like industrial, wholesale distribution and retail.
11.7% 12.0%
8.1%7.3%
8.3%9.5%
15.8%
1.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Average 1999-2003
Median 1st
Quartile4th
Quartile
55
Financial Performance
C o st o f G o od s S o ld S e llin g P rice
P ro fita b ility G ro w th
F ixe d C a p ita l U tiliza tion W o rk in g C a p ita l U tiliza tion
C a p ita l U tiliza tion
F in a nc ia l P e rfo rm a n ce
66
Revenue Growth
P ro fita b ility
F o re ca s t A ccu ra cy S p ee d to M arke t
L e a d T im e
G ro w th C a p ita l U tiliza tion
F in a nc ia l P e rfo rm a n ce
77
Capital Utilization
P ro fita b ility G ro w th
F ixe d Ca p ita l U tiliza tion
D a ys o f In ve n to ry D a ys S a les O uts tan d ing D a ys P u rch a ses O u ts tan d ing
W o rk in g C a p ita l U tiliza tion
C a p ita l U tiliza tion
F in a nc ia l P e rfo rm a n ce
88
Why Capital Utilization?Question: Effect on Net Personal Wealth?
• Salary $10,000/month
• Expenses– Food, Clothing, Utilities $ 5,000/month
• Net Operating Income $ 5,000/month
• Taxes (30%) $ 3,000/month
• Net Income After Tax $ 2,000/month
99
Capital UtilizationQuestion: Effect on Net Personal Wealth?• Salary $10,000/month• Expenses
– Food, Clothing, Utilities $ 5,000/month
• Net Operating Income $ 5,000/month• Taxes (30%) $ 3,000/month• Net Income After Tax $ 2,000/month• Interest Expenses $ 3,000/month• Change in Net Worth ($ 1,000/month)
1010
Capital UtilizationQuestion: Effect on Net Shareholder Value?• Revenue $10,000/month• Operating Expenses
– COGS, SG&A $ 5,000/month
• Net Operating Income $ 5,000/month• Taxes $ 3,000/month• NOPAT $ 2,000/month• Capital Charge $ 3,000/month• Economic Profit ($ 1,000/month)AKA:
Economic Value AddedShareholder Value Added
1111
Corporate “Interest Expense”
• Opportunity Cost of Money
• Average Cost of Capital
• Sources of Capital– Shareholders – Equity– Bond holders and Lessors – Debt
• Question: – Which gets a higher return?– Why?
1212
Average Cost of Capital
• % of Equity * Cost of Equity, • +% of Debt * Cost of Debt (1-Tax Rate)• Example: Adtran
– From the Balance sheet ($000’s)• Total Assets $559,942• NIBCLs $ 36,015• Capital $523,927
• Debt $57,290 or ~11% Cost of Debt 5%• Equity is ~89% Cost of Equity?
1313
Historical Cost of Equity
• Adtran Stock closed at – 12.78 in Jan 96*– 29.17 in Jan 06
– 12.01 in Jan 96– 22.47 last week
• That’s a CAGR of 8.6%• That’s a CAGR of 4.7%• So investors expect these returns to continue• Or use the CAPM
– *accounting for splits and dividends. Yahoo Finance will do these calculations for you http://finance.yahoo.com
Improve!
1414
ADTN Share Price
• CAGR?
1515
Splits & Dividends
• 2:1 Stock Split Dec. 03
• Quarterly dividends
1616
Average Cost of Capital
• % of Equity * Cost of Equity• +% of Debt * Cost of Debt (1-Tax Rate)• Example: Adtran
– From the Balance sheet• Total Assets $559,942 $473,620• NIBCLs $ 36,015 $ 40,120• Capital $523,927 $433,500
• Debt $57,290 or ~11% Cost of Debt 5% * (1-31.7%) = 3.4%• Equity is ~89% Cost of Equity 8.6%• Cost of Capital 11%*3.4% + 89%*8.6% =7.7% • 13%*3.4% +87%*4.7% = 4.5% (low)
13%
Or 4.7%?87%
1717
Adtran Economic Profit
Operating Expenses 352.76$ 386.88Operating Income 101.76$ 113.8Non- Operating Income (Expense) 10.80$ 4.47Net Operating Profit Before Taxes 112.56$ 118.27Cash Taxes 34.88$ 39.69Net Operating Profit After Taxes 77.68$ 78.58% NOPAT / Revenue 17.09% 15.69%
Capital 523.93$ 433.5Cost of Capital 7.7% 7.70%Capital Charge 40.34$ $ 33.38 % Capital Charge / Revenue 8.9% 6.7%
Economic Profit $37.34 $ 45.20 % Economic Profit / Revenue 8.22% 9.03%
Average Economic Profit
across broad range of publicly traded stocks is
~0%
Current
1818
The Main Difference
• Adtran ran more revenue across fewer assets at a slightly lower margin
• Margin X SPEED = ROIC
1919
ROIC
• Return on Invested Capital• ROIC = NOPAT/Capital• = NOPAT/Revenue X Revenue/Capital• = Margin X SPEED
HP DELLRevenue 118,364,000$ 61,101,000$ NOPAT 8,329,000$ 2,478,000$ Capital 81,014,000$ 18,185,000$ SPEED 1.46 3.36 Margin 7% 4%ROIC 10% 14%
2020
-2%
-2%
-9%
-5%
-5%
-12%
-12%
-14%
-2%
-11%
-1%
-5%
-4%
-7%
-12%
0%
-16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
ARVINMERITOR INC
BORG WARNER INC
DAIMLERCHRYSLER AG
DANA CORP
DELPHI CORP
FEDERAL-MOGUL CORP
FORD MOTOR CO
GENERAL MOTORS CORP
MAGNA INTERNAT INC CL A
TENNECO AUTOMOTIVE INC
VISTEON CORPORATION
NISSAN MOTOR CO LTD ADR
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP ADS
BMW
Hyundai
VW
Automotive
2121
Working Capital
P ro fita b ility G ro w th
F ixe d Ca p ita l U tiliza tion
D a ys o f In ve n to ry D a ys S a les O uts tan d ing D a ys P u rch a ses O u ts tan d ing
W o rk in g C a p ita l U tiliza tion
C a p ita l U tiliza tion
F in a nc ia l P e rfo rm a n ce
2222
Days of Inventory
• Days of Inventory =
• Cost per Day is Cost of Goods Sold or Cost of Sales/365
• Slightly different idea than
• Turns =
Value of InventoryCost per Day
RevenueValue of Inventory
2323
Adtran Example
• Inventory $ 42,316• Cost of Good Sold $193,455• Cost per Day $ 530• Days of Inventory ~ 80 days = 42,316/530• Note: A reduction of 1 day in inventory frees up
about how much working capital?• Turns ~ 11 = 454.517/42.316• Note: The company will talk about holding
approximately 33 days of inventory. Explain the discrepancy between 80 and 33.
Half a million per day
Adtran’s gross margin is
~57%
2424
Days Sales Outstanding
• Days Sales Outstanding
Measures the average time to collect on salesThis is capital you are lending to customers
• Adtran Example ($000’s)– Accounts Receivable $70,504– Revenue per Day $1,250 = $454,517/365– Days Sales Outstanding = 56+ days
• Note: Collecting one day faster frees up approximately how much capital?
Accounts ReceivableRevenue Per Day
2525
Days Purchases Outstanding
• Days Purchases Outstanding
Measures the average time to pay bills
This is capital your suppliers are lending you
• Adtran Example ($000’s)– Accounts Payable $22,856
– Purchases per Day $530
– Days Purchases Outstanding = 43+ days
Accounts PayablePurchases per Day
Typically use cost per
day
2626
Carrefour
• 2005 Cost of Sales €57,052 million• Cost per Day €156 million• Apparent political pressure to reduce days in
terms of sale – 30 days• Carrefour’s Trade Payables € 14,721 mil.• That’s about 94 days• 48% of Net Sales generated in France• Assume € 7,000 mil. of Trade Payables in France• Assume same average 94 days.• Reduce to 30 days means what?
2727
Impact
• Carrefour would need to come up with– 64/94*€ 7,000 mil or about € 4,700 mil.
• 2005 Earnings before Interest and Taxes – € 3,100 mil.
2828
Working Capital
• Longer Lead Times
• Greater Volatility
• More complex relationships
Greater demand for Working Capital in Supply Chains
2929
Cash-to-Cash Cycle
• How many days of operations the company must finance with capital Days Of Inventory
+ Days Sales Outstanding
- Days Purchases Outstanding
• Adtran Example• Days of Inventory 80
• Days Sales Outstanding 56
• Days Purchases Outstanding 43
• Cash-to-Cash Cycle 93 days
3030
Prof. Peter Klaus, D.B.A./Boston Univ.Chair Business Logistics, Universitaet Erlangen-Nürnberg and
Head Fraunhofer ATL, Nürnberg <[email protected]>
Dr. Klaus’s Time-Money Map
3131
Dell’s Magic
-43
-79
32 4
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Days Sales Outstanding + Days in Inventory
Days Payments Outstanding
Cash-to-Cash Cycle
$ 4 Billion in Working Capital
3232
Dell’s Magic Updated
-25.93
-60.5
28.26
6.31
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40
Days Sales Outstanding + Days in Inventory
Days Payments Outstanding
Cash-to-Cash Cycle
$ 3.5 Billion in Working Capital
3333
Automotive
• Ford – 32 days in 1991 to 29 days today (9%)
• GM– 38 days in 1991 to 28 days today (26%)
• Nissan– 45 days in 1991 to 27 days today (40%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% Reduction in Days of Inventory
since 1991
3434
Electronics
• HP– 110 days in 1995 to 43 days today (61%)
• Itautec– 112 days in 1999 to 68 days today (39%)
• Lenovo– 56 days in 1999 to 22 days today (61%)
• Nokia143 days in 1999 to 26 days today (82%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% Reduction in Days of Inventory
since 1995
3535
Aircraft
• BAE– 81 days in 1999 to 36 days today (56%)
• Boeing– 41 days in 1999 to 30 days today (27%)
• Lockheed Martin– 57 days in 1999 to 19 days today (67%)
• Northrop Grumman– 48 days in 1999 to 13 days today (73%)
• Embraer– 138 days in 1999 to 143 days today
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
% Reduction in Days of Inventory
since 1999
3636
Retail/Consumer Goods
• Carrefour– 62 days in 1999 to 40 days today (35%)
• Royal Ahold– 36 days in 1999 to 25 days today (31%)
• Unilever– 43 days in 1999 to 36 days today (16%)
• Wal-Mart– 56 days in 1999 to 49 days today (13%)
• Carulla Vivero– 36 days in 1999 to 58 days today
0%
20%
40%
% Reduction in Days of Inventory
since 1999
3737
Cost of Holding Inventory• Non-Capital Charges as % of Inventory
– Warehousing
– Obsolescence
– Pilferage
– Damage
– Insurance & Taxes
– Other
• Does this depend on the SKU?
• Typical charge is ~10%
• These are PRE-TAX costs
• Capital charge was AFTER TAX
3838
Total Cost of Carrying Inventory
• Total (Pre-Tax) Cost of Carrying InventoryNon-Capital Charge (e.g., 10%)Capital Charge/(1-Tax Rate)
• Adtran ExampleNon-Capital Charge (we will guess 10%) 10%Capital Charge 7.7%/(1-31.7%) ~11.3%Total Cost of Carrying Inventory 21.3%
• What does this mean? – Adtran holds $42.3 Million in inventory– The annual cost of carrying that inventory is ~$9 Mill.
3939
Why Reduce Inventory
• Reduces the capital and non-capital costs
• Reduces requirements for working capital
• Improves return on capital
• Then there’s lean…
4040
Why Carry Inventory
• Deterministic inventory (the grease that let’s the gears move) – “Cycle” Stock– Pipeline Inventory– Anticipatory Inventory
• Stochastic Inventory (the buffer that protects the gears from jolts)
4141
Next
• Deterministic Inventory– Pipeline– Cycle Stock
4242
Summary
• Financial Performance– Profitability, Growth, Capital Utilization
• Capital Utilization & Economic Profit• Pre-tax cost of capital• Working Capital
– Cash-to-Cash Cycle• Days of Inventory• Days Sales Outstanding• Days Purchases Outstanding
• Non-Capital Costs of Holding Inventory• Inventory Holding Costs