© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Edward Garner Communications Director Worldpanel – UK GB Grocery Retailer Overview Meat Promotion Wales – 12 November

© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009

Edward GarnerCommunications Director Worldpanel – UK

GB Grocery Retailer OverviewMeat Promotion Wales – 12 November 2009


The Recession – is it ending?

Grocery Price Inflation – TNS Calculation

Based on year-on-year comparisons of price paid for over 75,000 identical products including promotions and in the proportion that British households are purchasing them

12 w/e periods year-on-year

4.5 4.8

5.8

6.9

8.18.9 9.2

8.78.3 8.1 8.3 8.6

9.1 8.88.1

7.0

5.95.1

4.33.5

20-A

pr-0

818

-May

-08

15-J

un-0

813

-Jul

-08

10-A

ug-0

807

-Sep

-08

05-O

ct-0

802

-Nov

-08

30-N

ov-0

828

-Dec

-08

25-J

an-0

922

-Feb

-09

22-M

ar-0

919

-Apr

-09

17-M

ay-0

914

-Jun

-09

12-J

ul-0

909

-Aug

-09

06-S

ep-0

904

-Oct

-09


Total RST – Key Dynamics to 04 October 2009

3.5 3.1

-0.2-1.1

-0.6+1.5

Inflation HHVolumeChange

StoreChoice

PromotionChoice

ProductChoice

HH SpendChange

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

ns

of

Ch

an

ge

%


RST evolution – Inflation and shopper reaction

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Inflation

HH Spend change

0.6 1.4 0.6 0.7 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5-0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5

-0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2-0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8-1.1

-1.3 -1.3-1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1

0.30.9

0.7 0.1

-0.8 -1.1-1.1

-1.3-1.4

-1.9 -2.3 -2.8 -3 -3.3 -3.9 -3.2 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6

24-F

eb.

23-M

ar.

20-A

pr.

18-M

ay.

15-J

un.

13-J

ul.

10-A

ug.

07-S

ep.

05-O

ct.

02-N

ov.

30-N

ov.

28-D

ec.

25-J

an.

22-F

eb.

22-M

ar.

19-A

pril.

17-M

ay.

14-J

un.

12-J

ul.

09-A

ug.

06-S

ep.

04-O

ct.

Product

Promotion

Retailer

Volume

12 w/e 04 October 2009


Total Grocery 4-weekly Targeted Own Label Shares

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4O

ct 0

7 20

07

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul

13 2

008

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul

12 2

009

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009

Premium OL

Healthy OL


Total Grocery 4-weekly Targeted Own Label Shares

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4O

ct 0

7 20

07

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul

13 2

008

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul

12 2

009

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009

Value OL

Premium OL

Healthy OL


Total Grocers Year-on-Year £% Changes

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

5030

-Dec

-07

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

12 w/e periods

Sal

es G

row

th £

%

Economy PL

Premium PL

Healthy PL

Other PL

Branded


Total Grocery Budget PL Trends - 4-wkly £m

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009

Asda

Tesco

Sainsbury

Morrisons

Latest 12-wk % Change

-2%

0%

+29%

+23%


Premium Private Label Sales Trends

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sa

les

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

£m

)

Tesco Finest Sainsbury Taste the Difference Asda Extra Special MorrisonsThe Best

+5%

Latest 12-wk % Change

-10%

-6%

+8%

Net Switching through price tiers in the Big 4Shoppers are now trading up as Branded steals from Value OL.

Standard Own Label

Branded

Value Own Label

Premium Own Label

Switching limited to Big 4 retailers and 4 tiers

Net Switching through price tiers in the Big 4

Total Grocery 12we 04th October 2009


Total Grocery Branded vs. Private Label - £%

37 40 41

4042

45

33

380

8589

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

52 w/e Oct 07 2007 52 w/e Oct 05 2008 52 w/e Oct 04 2009

£bn

No Brand Name

Branded

Private Label

+6.0%

+7.5%

+5.4%

+4.4%

+7.1%+5.4%


The Retailer Strategies

Tesco – Fighting Back

Asda – back to Price

Sainsbury – Value & Values

Morrisons – Moving Nationwide

Waitrose – The Ethical consumer

Discounters – It's their time?

M&S - Flawed Model

Home Delivery









M&S - Flawed Model

Home Delivery


Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

341

99

3

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Sainsbury Tesco Asda Morrisons Tot


Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers

31.0

16.9

15.5

11.0

5.4

3.7

2.9

3.9

2.3

2.5

1.7

0.8

0.5

30.9

17.2

15.7

11.5

5.4

4.0

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.2

1.7

0.8

0.6

Tesco

Asda

Sainsbury

Morrisons

Co-operative

Waitrose

Aldi

Somerfield

Lidl

Tot Indepts

Iceland

Netto

Farm Foods

12 w/e 04 Oct 0912 w/e 05 Oct 08


Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends

12

8

7

7

6

6

5

4

4

-7

-28

Waitrose

Morrisons

Iceland

Asda

Sainsbury

Total Hard Disc

Co-operative

Tot Grocers

Tesco

Tot Indepts

Somerfield12 w/e Oct 4 2009y/y % Change


Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Changes £000s

1,299,790

1,163,030

935,940

876,430

550,652

Tesco

Asda

Sainsbury

Morrisons

Total Hard Disc52 w/e Oct 4 2009y/y £ Change


Tesco Share of Till Roll Grocers

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009

Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average

Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Tesco Tesco Baseline


Tesco Share Change - 12 week share year-on-year change

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

26-M

ar-0

6

23-A

pr-

06

21-M

ay-0

6

18-J

un

-06

16-J

ul-

06

13-A

ug

-06

10-S

ep-0

6

08-O

ct-0

6

05-N

ov-

06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9


Tesco Private Label Weekly Sales £m

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oct

21

20

07

No

v 0

4 2

00

7

No

v 1

8 2

00

7

De

c 0

2 2

00

7

De

c 1

6 2

00

7

De

c 3

0 2

00

7

Jan

13

20

08

Jan

27

20

08

Fe

b 1

0 2

00

8

Fe

b 2

4 2

00

8

Ma

r 0

9 2

00

8

Ma

r 2

3 2

00

8

Ap

r 0

6 2

00

8

Ap

r 2

0 2

00

8

Ma

y 0

4 2

00

8

Ma

y 1

8 2

00

8

Jun

01

20

08

Jun

15

20

08

Jun

29

20

08

Jul 1

3 2

00

8

Jul 2

7 2

00

8

Au

g 1

0 2

00

8

Au

g 2

4 2

00

8

Se

p 0

7 2

00

8

Se

p 2

1 2

00

8

Oct

05

20

08

Oct

19

20

08

No

v 0

2 2

00

8

No

v 1

6 2

00

8

No

v 3

0 2

00

8

De

c 1

4 2

00

8

De

c 2

8 2

00

8

Jan

11

20

09

Jan

25

20

09

Fe

b 0

8 2

00

9

Fe

b 2

2 2

00

9

Ma

r 0

8 2

00

9

Ma

r 2

2 2

00

9

Ap

r 0

5 2

00

9

Ap

r 1

9 2

00

9

Ma

y 0

3 2

00

9

Ma

y 1

7 2

00

9

Ma

y 3

1 2

00

9

Jun

14

20

09

Jun

28

20

09

Jul 1

2 2

00

9

Jul 2

6 2

00

9

Au

g 0

9 2

00

9

Au

g 2

3 2

00

9

Se

p 0

6 2

00

9

Se

p 2

0 2

00

9

Oct

04

20

09

Finest


Tesco Private Label Weekly Sales £m

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oct

21

20

07

No

v 0

4 2

00

7

No

v 1

8 2

00

7

De

c 0

2 2

00

7

De

c 1

6 2

00

7

De

c 3

0 2

00

7

Jan

13

20

08

Jan

27

20

08

Fe

b 1

0 2

00

8

Fe

b 2

4 2

00

8

Ma

r 0

9 2

00

8

Ma

r 2

3 2

00

8

Ap

r 0

6 2

00

8

Ap

r 2

0 2

00

8

Ma

y 0

4 2

00

8

Ma

y 1

8 2

00

8

Jun

01

20

08

Jun

15

20

08

Jun

29

20

08

Jul 1

3 2

00

8

Jul 2

7 2

00

8

Au

g 1

0 2

00

8

Au

g 2

4 2

00

8

Se

p 0

7 2

00

8

Se

p 2

1 2

00

8

Oct

05

20

08

Oct

19

20

08

No

v 0

2 2

00

8

No

v 1

6 2

00

8

No

v 3

0 2

00

8

De

c 1

4 2

00

8

De

c 2

8 2

00

8

Jan

11

20

09

Jan

25

20

09

Fe

b 0

8 2

00

9

Fe

b 2

2 2

00

9

Ma

r 0

8 2

00

9

Ma

r 2

2 2

00

9

Ap

r 0

5 2

00

9

Ap

r 1

9 2

00

9

Ma

y 0

3 2

00

9

Ma

y 1

7 2

00

9

Ma

y 3

1 2

00

9

Jun

14

20

09

Jun

28

20

09

Jul 1

2 2

00

9

Jul 2

6 2

00

9

Au

g 0

9 2

00

9

Au

g 2

3 2

00

9

Se

p 0

6 2

00

9

Se

p 2

0 2

00

9

Oct

04

20

09

Value Finest Tesco Discount Brands

Average Price per pack in TescoDiscount similar to Promoted Standard Own Label

0.69

0.941.03

1.201.30

1.68

Value Discountbrands

PROMOTEDStandard own

label

FULL PRICEStandard own

label

PROMOTEDBrands

FULL PRICEBrands

£ pr

ice

per

pack

RST (grocery) 12we 4 Oct 2009


Tesco

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

£0 - £9999pa

£10000 -£19999 pa

£20000 -£29999 pa

£30000 -£39999 pa

£40000 -£49999 pa

£50000 -£59999 pa

£60000 -£69999 pa

£70000 +


Household Income Signatures

Outlet Share within Demographic Group









M&S - Flawed Model

Home Delivery


Asda Share of Till Roll Grocers

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Asda Asda Baseline


Asda Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

26-M

ar-0

6

23-A

pr-

06

21-M

ay-0

6

18-J

un

-06

16-J

ul-

06

13-A

ug

-06

10-S

ep-0

6

08-O

ct-0

6

05-N

ov-

06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

12 w/e Periods


Asda Demographic SignaturesTill RollOutlet Share within Demographic Group - MAT to October

0

5

10

15

20

25

Class AB Class C1 Class C2 Class D Class E

2007 2008 2009

Social Class

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Age under28

Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+

2007 2008 2009

Housewife Age

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 in HH 2 in HH 3 in HH 4 in HH 5+ in HH

2007 2008 2009

Household Size

0

5

10

15

20

25

No Children 1 Child HH 2 Child HH 3+ Child HH

2007 2008 2009

No. of Children

13.9 C2DE Large households

Younger With children


Trading Indices - Asda

Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries

Total Toiletries 119Total Healthcare 113Total Household 111Total Ambient Groceries 101Total Fresh+Chilled 97Total Alcohol 97Total Frozen 94

52 w/e Oct 4 2009


Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % changeAsda

11.4

10.3

9.3

8.5

8.4

7.5

7.3

6.0

Total Alcohol

Total Healthcare

Total Ambient Groceries

TOTAL GROCERIES

Total Household

Total Fresh+Chilled

Total Frozen

Total Toiletries 52 w/e 04 Oct 09

Strong performance in Alcohol


Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % ChangeOrganic

-2

-10

-12

-13

-16

-24

Waitrose

Sainsbury

Tot Grocers

Tesco

Morrisons

Asda

12 w/e 04 Oct 09

Sharp cutback in Organic


Share of Total Grocers - Organic

29.5

22.9

16.7

10.8

6.7

3.7

3.6

1.6

0.6

0.7

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.1

29.3

23.5

18.7

9.3

6.4

3.0

2.9

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.0

Tesco

Sainsbury

Waitrose

Asda

Morrisons

Co-operative

M & S

Somerfield

Lidl

Tot Indepts

Aldi

Farm Foods

Iceland

Netto

12 w/e 04 Oct 0912 w/e 05 Oct 08


Net Switching Volumes to Asda

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

30-D

ec-0

727

-Jan

-08

24-F

eb-0

823

-Mar

-08

20-A

pr-0

818

-May

-08

15-J

un-0

813

-Jul

-08

10-A

ug-0

807

-Sep

-08

05-O

ct-0

802

-Nov

-08

30-N

ov-0

828

-Dec

-08

25-J

an-0

922

-Feb

-09

22-M

ar-0

919

-Apr

-09

17-M

ay-0

914

-Jun

-09

12-J

ul-0

909

-Aug

-09

06-S

ep-0

904

-Oct

-09

Net

sw

itch

ing

- S

pen

d

Tesco Somerfield M & S

12 weeks ending


-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

02-D

ec-0

730

-Dec

-07

27-J

an-0

824

-Feb

-08

23-M

ar-0

820

-Apr

-08

18-M

ay-0

815

-Jun

-08

13-J

ul-0

810

-Aug

-08

07-S

ep-0

805

-Oct

-08

02-N

ov-0

830

-Nov

-08

28-D

ec-0

825

-Jan

-09

22-F

eb-0

922

-Mar

-09

19-A

pr-0

917

-May

-09

14-J

un-0

912

-Jul

-09

09-A

ug-0

906

-Sep

-09

Net

sw

itch

ing

- S

pen

d

Lidl Aldi Netto

12 weeks ending

Net Switching Volumes to Asda


The Importance of Promotions by Retailer

16 1813

1713

17 1519 17 19

913

19 19

6 5

43

75 8

5 6 4

3

5

5 2

10

1315

910 6 6 6 6

33

6

87

21

1

1

11

3 3 32

11

2

9

7

1111

73

5

82

Tesco Asda Sainsbury Morrisons Somerfield Waitrose Co-operative Iceland

TPR MultiBuy Y for £X Extra Free

% Outlet Turnover by Promotional Type52 w/e Oct 5 2008 v.52 w/e Oct 4 2009


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000D

ec 0

4 20

05Ja

n 01

200

6Ja

n 29

200

6F

eb 2

6 20

06M

ar 2

6 20

06A

pr 2

3 20

06M

ay 2

1 20

06Ju

n 18

200

6Ju

l 16

2006

Aug

13

2006

Sep

10

2006

Oct

08

2006

Nov

05

2006

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28 2

007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Apr

22

2007

May

20

2007

Jun

17 2

007

Jul 1

5 20

07A

ug 1

2 20

07S

ep 0

9 20

07O

ct 0

7 20

07N

ov 0

4 20

07D

ec 0

2 20

07D

ec 3

0 20

07Ja

n 27

200

8F

eb 2

4 20

08M

ar 2

3 20

08A

pr 2

0 20

08M

ay 1

8 20

08Ju

n 15

200

8Ju

l 13

2008

Aug

10

2009

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

Nov

02

2008

Nov

30

2008

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25 2

009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Apr

19

2009

May

17

2009

Jun

14 2

009

Jul 1

2 20

09A

ug 0

9 20

09S

ep 0

6 20

09O

ct 0

4 20

09

Sainsbury

Tesco

Asda

Morrisons Tot

BOGOF Sales by Outlet £000s


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Dec

04

2005

Jan

01 2

006

Jan

29 2

006

Feb

26

2006

Mar

26

2006

Apr

23

2006

May

21

2006

Jun

18 2

006

Jul 1

6 20

06A

ug 1

3 20

06S

ep 1

0 20

06O

ct 0

8 20

06N

ov 0

5 20

06D

ec 0

3 20

06D

ec 3

1 20

06Ja

n 28

200

7F

eb 2

5 20

07M

ar 2

5 20

07A

pr 2

2 20

07M

ay 2

0 20

07Ju

n 17

200

7Ju

l 15

2007

Aug

12

2007

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

Nov

04

2007

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27 2

008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Apr

20

2008

May

18

2008

Jun

15 2

008

Jul 1

3 20

08A

ug 1

0 20

09S

ep 0

7 20

08O

ct 0

5 20

08N

ov 0

2 20

08N

ov 3

0 20

08D

ec 2

8 20

08Ja

n 25

200

9F

eb 2

2 20

09M

ar 2

2 20

09A

pr 1

9 20

09M

ay 1

7 20

09Ju

n 14

200

9Ju

l 12

2009

Aug

09

2009

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009

BOGOF Sales for the Top 4 Multiples £000s


Retailer Price Track - Total Grocery

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2004 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2005 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2006 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2007 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2008 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2009 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Pri

ce

Ind

ex

Sainsbury Asda Morrisons Tesco

Strong price focus



60.00

65.00

70.00

75.00

80.00

85.00

90.00

95.0020

04 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320

05 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320

06 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320

07 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320

08 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320

09 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Pri

ce I

nd

ex

ALDI ASDA LIDL


Smart price Own brand Brown/white bread 30p £0.72

Potatoes 64p (2.5 kilo) £1.98 (2.5 kilo)

Crisps 47 p (12 pack) 1.39

Oranges 40p kg £0.99 kg

Cola 18p 2 litres £0.39 2 litres

Baked beans 18p can 31p can

Sausages 48p 8 pack (454g) £1.88 8 pack (454g)

Yoghurt 36p (6x125g) £0.98 (6x125g)

Eggs 82p (6) £1.36 (6)

Cornflakes 70p (750g) £1.14 (750g)

Frozen peas 84p (907g) £1.52 (kg)

Tea bags 28p (80) £1.29 (80)

Margarine 21p (500g) £0.79 (500g)

Basket cost £5.86 £14.74


Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices - £% - Asda

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sep 0

9 20

07

Oct 07

2007

Nov 04

2007

Dec 02

2007

Dec 30

2007

Jan

27 2

008

Feb 2

4 2008

Mar

23 20

08

Apr 2

0 20

08

May

18 2

008

Jun

15 2

008

Jul 1

3 200

8

Aug 1

0 20

08

Sep 0

7 20

08

Oct 05

2008

Nov 02

2008

Nov 30

2008

Dec 28

2008

Jan

25 2

009

Feb 2

2 2009

Mar

22 20

09

Apr 1

9 20

09

May

17 2

009

Jun

14 2

009

Jul 1

2 200

9

Aug 0

9 20

09

Sep 0

6 20

09

Oct 04

2009

£1

£2

£3

£4


Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices £1/2/3/4 - £%

57

42

24

15

15

14

13

11

9

9

7

3

2

1

Iceland

Farm Foods

Asda

Somerfield

Morrisons

Tesco

Co-operative

Sainsbury

Tot Indepts

Lidl

M & S

Waitrose

Netto

Aldi 12 w/e Oct 4 2009









M&S - Flawed Model

Home DeliveryValue Values


Sainsbury Share of Till Roll Grocers

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Sainsbury Sainsbury Baseline


Sainsbury Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

26-M

ar-0

6

23-A

pr-

06

21-M

ay-0

6

18-J

un

-06

16-J

ul-

06

13-A

ug

-06

10-S

ep-0

6

08-O

ct-0

6

05-N

ov-

06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

12 w/e Periods



99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

2004 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2005 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2006 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2007 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2008 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2009 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Pri

ce

Ind

ex

Sainsbury


What price points are driving Sainsbury's growth?

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-0

8

30-N

ov-0

8

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-0

9

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un-09

12-J

ul-09

09-A

ug-0

9

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

12 w/e periods - Total Grocery

Sp

end

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o C

han

ge

(£00

0s)

>£4.20

£3.00-£4.20

£1.80-£3.00

£1.20-£1.80

0-£1.20


Tesco Value Demographic SignaturesTotal GroceryShare % within Demographic Group

0

0.5

1

1.5

2


52 w/e Oct 04 2009

Social Class

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

Age under 28 Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+52 w/e Oct 04 2009

Housewife Age

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5


52 w/e Oct 04 2009

Household Size

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

No Children 1 Child HH 2 Child HH 3+ Child HH52 w/e Oct 04 2009

No. of Children


Sainsbury Basics Demographic SignaturesTotal GroceryShare % within Demographic Group

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8


52 w/e Oct 04 2009

Social Class

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Age under 28 Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+52 w/e Oct 04 2009

Housewife Age

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9


52 w/e Oct 04 2009

Household Size

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

No Children 1 Child HH 2 Child HH 3+ Child HH52 w/e Oct 04 2009

No. of Children


Total Grocery Budget PL Trends

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

198

2 3 4 199

2 3 4 100

2 3 4 101

2 3 4 102

2 3 4 103

2 3 4 104

2 3 4 105

2 3 4 106

2 3 4 107

2 3 4 108

2 3 4 109

2 3

Asda

Tesco

Sainsbury's

£% within Outlet

Morrisons


Premium Private Label Sales Trends

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sa

les

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

£m

)

Tesco Finest Sainsbury Taste the Difference Asda Extra Special Safeway/MorrisonsThe Best

12 wk y-o-y trend -10%


Trading Indices - Sainsbury


Total Healthcare 124Total Toiletries 118Total Fresh+Chilled 109Total Alcohol 99Total Household 94Total Ambient Groceries 92Total Frozen 73

52 w/e Oct 4 2009


Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % changeSainsbury

12.0

9.4

9.3

6.5

5.8

5.4

4.6

3.4

Total Frozen

Total Healthcare

Total Ambient Groceries

TOTAL GROCERIES

Total Household

Total Fresh+Chilled

Total Toiletries

Total Alcohol

52 w/e 04 Oct 09


Sainsbury Share IndexI actively seek out fair trade products 132I am prepared to pay more for organic food 124The nutritional labeling on food & drink products has an effect on what I buy 116I try to buy environmentally friendly products 115It is important to me what brand I buy 113I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine 110I am willing to travel further to shop at the supermarket I prefer 110I/my partner enjoy cooking to entertain friends and family 110If usual item is not available than I buy another size rather than change brands 110I am more likely to buy a HBA product if it is made of more natural ingredients 109I try to buy local product whenever I can 108The brand name of the clothes I wear is important to me 108I stick with a brand I usually buy than try something I am not very sure of 107I restrict how much sugary food I eat 106My diet is very important to me 106I like to go to stores where I can buy everything I need at one time 106I am always looking out for health & beauty products with new added benefits 105I have a pastime/hobby that is an important part of my life 105I am always under time pressure when I do grocery shopping 105I try to lead a healthy lifestyle 105

Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Aug 9 2009


Fairtrade


Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb

26

2006

Mar

26

2006

Apr

23

2006

May

21

2006

Jun

18 2

006

Jul 1

6 20

06

Aug

13

2006

Sep

10

2006

Oct

08

2006

Nov

05

2006

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28 2

007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Apr

22

2007

May

20

2007

Jun

17 2

007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Aug

12

2007

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

Nov

04

2007

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27 2

008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Apr

20

2008

May

18

2008

Jun

15 2

008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Aug

10

2008

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

Nov

02

2008

Nov

30

2008

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25 2

009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Apr

19

2009

May

17

2009

Jun

14 2

009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Total Grocers

http://www.fairtrade.org.uk/index.htm



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb

26

2006

Mar

26

2006

Apr

23

2006

May

21

2006

Jun

18 2

006

Jul 1

6 20

06

Aug

13

2006

Sep

10

2006

Oct

08

2006

Nov

05

2006

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28 2

007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Apr

22

2007

May

20

2007

Jun

17 2

007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Aug

12

2007

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

Nov

04

2007

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27 2

008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Apr

20

2008

May

18

2008

Jun

15 2

008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Aug

10

2008

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

Nov

02

2008

Nov

30

2008

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25 2

009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Apr

19

2009

May

17

2009

Jun

14 2

009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Total Grocers

Sainsbury




0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb

26

2006

Mar

26

2006

Apr

23

2006

May

21

2006

Jun

18 2

006

Jul 1

6 20

06

Aug

13

2006

Sep

10

2006

Oct

08

2006

Nov

05

2006

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28 2

007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Apr

22

2007

May

20

2007

Jun

17 2

007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Aug

12

2007

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

Nov

04

2007

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27 2

008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Apr

20

2008

May

18

2008

Jun

15 2

008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Aug

10

2008

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

Nov

02

2008

Nov

30

2008

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25 2

009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Apr

19

2009

May

17

2009

Jun

14 2

009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Total Grocers

SainsburyWaitrose



Eggs


Not-Caged Eggs Market Share

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct

08

2006

Nov

05

2006

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28 2

007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Apr

22

2007

May

20

2007

Jun

17 2

007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Aug

12

2007

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

Nov

04

2007

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27 2

008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Apr

20

2008

May

18

2008

Jun

15 2

008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Aug

10

2008

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

Nov

02

2008

Nov

30

2008

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25 2

009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Apr

19

2009

May

17

2009

Jun

14 2

009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Aug

09

2009

Sep

06

2009

Asda

Tesco

Morrisons


Not-Caged Eggs Market Share

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct

08

2006

Nov

05

2006

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28 2

007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Apr

22

2007

May

20

2007

Jun

17 2

007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Aug

12

2007

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

Nov

04

2007

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27 2

008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Apr

20

2008

May

18

2008

Jun

15 2

008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Aug

10

2008

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

Nov

02

2008

Nov

30

2008

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25 2

009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Apr

19

2009

May

17

2009

Jun

14 2

009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Aug

09

2009

Sep

06

2009

Asda

Tesco

Morrisons

Sainsbury’s


Trading Indices - Sainsbury

Broad Area

Market Sector

MarketTotal Healthcare 124Total Toiletries 118Total Fresh+Chilled 109Total Alcohol 99Total Household 94Total Ambient Groceries 92Total Frozen 73

Fresh Fish 146Chilled Drinks 127Bathroom Toiletries 124Healthcare 124Oral-Care 118Fresh Poultry+Game 117Fresh Meat 113Chilled Bakery Products 113Haircare 113Fruit+Veg+Salads 112Chilled Convenience 110Other Toiletries 109

Processed Plty Escalopes 603Mixers 413Ambient Pizza Bases 320Frozen Stuffing 240Chilled Salad Accomps 219Chilled Olives 212Chilled Vegetarian 196Ambient Vgtrn Products 192Eye Care 183Chilled Prepared Fish 179Mens Skincare 167Smoking Cessation 165Shellfish 160Sleeping Aids 160Chilled Gravy+Stock 156Fresh Lamb 154Fresh Soup 152Lmscle Rmvrs/Water Softener 149Skincare 149Shoe Care Products 148

52 w/e Oct 4 2009


Organic Index v Social Class

NettoAldiLidl

IndeptsCo-op

Iceland

Morrisons

Waitrose

Somerfield

Asda

Tesco

Sainsbury

Tot Grocers

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

ABC1

Org

an

ic In

de

x

52 w/e Oct 4 2009


-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

30-D

ec-0

727

-Jan

-08

24-F

eb-0

823

-Mar

-08

20-A

pr-0

818

-May

-08

15-J

un-0

813

-Jul

-08

10-A

ug-0

807

-Sep

-08

05-O

ct-0

802

-Nov

-08

30-N

ov-0

828

-Dec

-08

25-J

an-0

922

-Feb

-09

22-M

ar-0

919

-Apr

-09

17-M

ay-0

914

-Jun

-09

12-J

ul-0

909

-Aug

-09

06-S

ep-0

904

-Oct

-09

Per

iod

2 C

han

ge

- C

olu

mn

s

Category Departures

Shoppers Won

Shoppers Held

Total Switching

12 weeks ending Category Level Changes

Sainsbury, Rolling Source of Change in Spend


Net Switching to Sainsbury from Tesco

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

30-D

ec-0

727

-Jan

-08

24-F

eb-0

823

-Mar

-08

20-A

pr-0

818

-May

-08

15-J

un-0

813

-Jul

-08

10-A

ug-0

807

-Sep

-08

05-O

ct-0

802

-Nov

-08

30-N

ov-0

828

-Dec

-08

25-J

an-0

922

-Feb

-09

22-M

ar-0

919

-Apr

-09

17-M

ay-0

914

-Jun

-09

12-J

ul-0

909

-Aug

-09

06-S

ep-0

904

-Oct

-09

Net

sw

itch

ing

- S

pen

d

12 weeks ending


Net Switching to Sainsbury from M & S

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

30-D

ec-0

727

-Jan

-08

24-F

eb-0

823

-Mar

-08

20-A

pr-0

818

-May

-08

15-J

un-0

813

-Jul

-08

10-A

ug-0

807

-Sep

-08

05-O

ct-0

802

-Nov

-08

30-N

ov-0

828

-Dec

-08

25-J

an-0

922

-Feb

-09

22-M

ar-0

919

-Apr

-09

17-M

ay-0

914

-Jun

-09

12-J

ul-0

909

-Aug

-09

06-S

ep-0

904

-Oct

-09

Net

sw

itch

ing

- S

pen

d

12 weeks ending


Net Switching to Sainsbury from Somerfield

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

30-D

ec-0

727

-Jan

-08

24-F

eb-0

823

-Mar

-08

20-A

pr-0

818

-May

-08

15-J

un-0

813

-Jul

-08

10-A

ug-0

807

-Sep

-08

05-O

ct-0

802

-Nov

-08

30-N

ov-0

828

-Dec

-08

25-J

an-0

922

-Feb

-09

22-M

ar-0

919

-Apr

-09

17-M

ay-0

914

-Jun

-09

12-J

ul-0

909

-Aug

-09

06-S

ep-0

904

-Oct

-09

Net

sw

itch

ing

- S

pen

d

12 weeks ending


Sainsbury's strong Repeat and now gaining ‘new’ shoppers – starting to correct price perception?

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

30 D

ec 0

7

27 J

an 0

8

24 F

eb 0

8

23 M

ar 0

8

20 A

pr 0

8

18 M

ay 0

8

15 J

un 0

8

13 J

ul 0

8

10 A

ug 0

8

07 S

ep 0

8

05 O

ct 0

8

02 N

ov 0

8

30 N

ov 0

8

28 D

ec 0

8

25 J

an 0

9

22 F

eb 0

9

22 M

ar 0

9

19 A

pr 0

9

17 M

ay 0

9

14 J

un 0

9

12 J

ul 0

9

09 A

ug 0

9

06 S

ep 0

9

04 O

ct 0

9

Act

ual

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n (

000,

000s

)

Net New/Lost Repeat Total









M&S - Flawed Model

Home Delivery


Morrison Share of Till Roll Grocers

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Morrisons+Safeway Morrisons+Safeway Baseline


Morrisons Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%

-10

-5

0

5

10

26-M

ar-0

6

23-A

pr-

06

21-M

ay-0

6

18-J

un

-06

16-J

ul-

06

13-A

ug

-06

10-S

ep-0

6

08-O

ct-0

6

05-N

ov-

06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

12 w/e Periods

Store sell-offs

Now stableSustained

growth


Morrisons Sales by Promotion Type - 4wkly £m

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

05-N

ov-0

6

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-0

7

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un-0

7

15-J

ul-0

7

12-A

ug-0

7

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-0

7

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-0

8

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un-0

8

13-J

ul-0

8

10-A

ug-0

8

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-0

8

30-N

ov-0

8

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-0

9

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un-0

9

12-J

ul-0

9

09-A

ug-0

9

06-S

ep-0

9

Oct

04

2009

Temporary Price Reductions MultiBuy

Temporary Price Reductions

Multibuy


Morrisons Private Label Weekly Sales £m

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Oct

21

20

07

No

v 0

4 2

00

7

No

v 1

8 2

00

7

De

c 0

2 2

00

7

De

c 1

6 2

00

7

De

c 3

0 2

00

7

Jan

13

20

08

Jan

27

20

08

Fe

b 1

0 2

00

8

Fe

b 2

4 2

00

8

Ma

r 0

9 2

00

8

Ma

r 2

3 2

00

8

Ap

r 0

6 2

00

8

Ap

r 2

0 2

00

8

Ma

y 0

4 2

00

8

Ma

y 1

8 2

00

8

Jun

01

20

08

Jun

15

20

08

Jun

29

20

08

Jul 1

3 2

00

8

Jul 2

7 2

00

8

Au

g 1

0 2

00

8

Au

g 2

4 2

00

8

Se

p 0

7 2

00

8

Se

p 2

1 2

00

8

Oct

05

20

08

Oct

19

20

08

No

v 0

2 2

00

8

No

v 1

6 2

00

8

No

v 3

0 2

00

8

De

c 1

4 2

00

8

De

c 2

8 2

00

8

Jan

11

20

09

Jan

25

20

09

Fe

b 0

8 2

00

9

Fe

b 2

2 2

00

9

Ma

r 0

8 2

00

9

Ma

r 2

2 2

00

9

Ap

r 0

5 2

00

9

Ap

r 1

9 2

00

9

Ma

y 0

3 2

00

9

Ma

y 1

7 2

00

9

Ma

y 3

1 2

00

9

Jun

14

20

09

Jun

28

20

09

Jul 1

2 2

00

9

Jul 2

6 2

00

9

Au

g 0

9 2

00

9

Au

g 2

3 2

00

9

Se

p 0

6 2

00

9

Se

p 2

0 2

00

9

Oct

04

20

09

The Best


Morrisons Private Label Weekly Sales £m

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Oct

21

20

07

No

v 0

4 2

00

7

No

v 1

8 2

00

7

De

c 0

2 2

00

7

De

c 1

6 2

00

7

De

c 3

0 2

00

7

Jan

13

20

08

Jan

27

20

08

Fe

b 1

0 2

00

8

Fe

b 2

4 2

00

8

Ma

r 0

9 2

00

8

Ma

r 2

3 2

00

8

Ap

r 0

6 2

00

8

Ap

r 2

0 2

00

8

Ma

y 0

4 2

00

8

Ma

y 1

8 2

00

8

Jun

01

20

08

Jun

15

20

08

Jun

29

20

08

Jul 1

3 2

00

8

Jul 2

7 2

00

8

Au

g 1

0 2

00

8

Au

g 2

4 2

00

8

Se

p 0

7 2

00

8

Se

p 2

1 2

00

8

Oct

05

20

08

Oct

19

20

08

No

v 0

2 2

00

8

No

v 1

6 2

00

8

No

v 3

0 2

00

8

De

c 1

4 2

00

8

De

c 2

8 2

00

8

Jan

11

20

09

Jan

25

20

09

Fe

b 0

8 2

00

9

Fe

b 2

2 2

00

9

Ma

r 0

8 2

00

9

Ma

r 2

2 2

00

9

Ap

r 0

5 2

00

9

Ap

r 1

9 2

00

9

Ma

y 0

3 2

00

9

Ma

y 1

7 2

00

9

Ma

y 3

1 2

00

9

Jun

14

20

09

Jun

28

20

09

Jul 1

2 2

00

9

Jul 2

6 2

00

9

Au

g 0

9 2

00

9

Au

g 2

3 2

00

9

Se

p 0

6 2

00

9

Se

p 2

0 2

00

9

Oct

04

20

09

Value The Best


Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends

12

8

7

7

6

6

5

4

4

-7

-28

Waitrose

Morrisons

Iceland

Asda

Sainsbury

Total Hard Disc

Co-operative

Tot Grocers

Tesco

Tot Indepts

Somerfield12 w/e Oct 4 2009y/y % Change


Morrisons Turnover Growth 52 w/e Sep 6 2009 - % chg

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Total ABC1 C2DE 16-44 45+


Trading Indices - Morrisons


Total Ambient Groceries 103Total Fresh+Chilled 103Total Household 100Total Alcohol 94Total Toiletries 93Total Frozen 89Total Healthcare 86

52 w/e Oct 4 2009


Fresh Fish 133Chilled Bakery Products 120Canned Goods 115Fresh Meat 112Biscuits 108Chilled Convenience 106Fresh Poultry+Game 104Hot Beverages 104Savoury Home Cooking 103Ambient Bakery Products 103

Trading Indices - Morrisons

Market Sectors indexed on Total Groceries

52 w/e Oct 4 2009


Reasons for Store Choice - Morrisons

146

133

115

108

104

101

100

100

99

97

93

89

70

Like Cafe Restaurant

Has Butchery Counter

Has Fresh Fish Counter

Has A Delicatessen

Has In Store Bakery

Always Low Prices

Good Value For Money

Like Store Layout

Friendly Staff

Good Product Range

Less Queuing

Like Own Label Goods

Sells Clothing+CDs etc

On-line Questionnaire - Outlet Share Index 52 w/e Aug 9 2009









M&S - Flawed Model

Home Delivery


Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure %

0

5

10

15

20

25

19

63

19

64

19

65

19

66

19

67

19

68

19

69

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

*20

09

Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV * MAT to June


Waitrose Share of Till Roll Grocers

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Waitrose Waitrose Baseline

http://www.waitrose.com/index.asp


Waitrose Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

26-M

ar-0

6

23-A

pr-

06

21-M

ay-0

6

18-J

un

-06

16-J

ul-

06

13-A

ug

-06

10-S

ep-0

6

08-O

ct-0

6

05-N

ov-

06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

12 w/e Periods


Waitrose Share IndexI regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine 184I am prepared to pay more for organic food 182I actively seek out fair trade products 148I try to buy environmentally friendly products 127It is important to me what brand I buy 125I try to buy local product whenever I can 125The brand name of the clothes I wear is important to me 121I am more likely to buy a HBA product if it is made of more natural ingredients 121I/my partner enjoy cooking to entertain friends and family 120I have a pastime/hobby that is an important part of my life 119I regularly take active exercise 119I stick with a brand I usually buy than try something I am not very sure of 117If usual item is not available than I buy another size rather than change brands 114I am willing to travel further to shop at the supermarket I prefer 113I restrict how much sugary food I eat 112I often treat myself/family to a meal out 108I try to lead a healthy lifestyle 108The way I look is extremely important to me 107My diet is very important to me 107I regularly use the Internet to find ways to make my life easier 106

Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Aug 9 2009


Organic


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1001998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

£m’s

Total Organic Products

Annualised Value = £1bnLatest 12 weeks 12% decline


Organic Indices

442

153

112

100

96

67

63

53

42

39

32

23

12

5

0

Waitrose

Sainsbury

M & S

Tot Grocers

Tesco

Co-operative

Asda

Morrisons

Tot Indepts

Somerfield

Lidl

Aldi

Farm Foods

Netto

Iceland

Share of Organic Indexed onTotal Grocery Share - 52 w/e Oct 4 2009


Reasons for Store Choice - Waitrose

139

139

130

116

110

102

100

96

88

85

84

48

38

Has Butchery Counter

Has Fresh Fish Counter

Has A Delicatessen

Less Queuing

Friendly Staff

Like Store Layout

Good Product Range

Like Own Label Goods

Good Value For Money

Has In Store Bakery

Like Cafe Restaurant

Always Low Prices

Sells Clothing+CDs etc



Reasons for Store Choice - Low Prices

127

107

105

103

101

100

93

93

86

81

79

48

Asda

Aldi

Tesco

Netto

Morrisons

Lidl

Iceland

Somerfield

Co-operative

Sainsbury

M & S

Waitrose



Trading Indices - Waitrose

Broad Area

Market Sector

MarketTotal Fresh+Chilled 127Total Household 89Total Ambient Groceries 88Total Alcohol 88Total Frozen 56Total Toiletries 49Total Healthcare 42

Fresh Fish 223Chilled Bakery Products 178Chilled Drinks 165Chilled Convenience 141Fruit+Veg+Salads 137Fresh Meat 121Fresh Poultry+Game 119Sweet Home Cooking 109Hot Beverages 109Frozen Confectionery 105Packet Breakfast 105Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment 101

Chilled Gravy+Stock 921Fresh Stuffing 875Chilled Olives 533Mixers 452Chilled Prepared Fish 428Chilled Salad Accomps 401Chilled Rice 374Fresh Soup 368Hand Wash Products 334Chilled Pate+Paste+Spread 316Chilled One Shot Drinks 264Fresh Flavoured Meats 257Ambient Olives 255Chilled Cooking Sauces 246Vegetable in Jar 236Chilled Vegetarian 232Wet/Smoked Fish 227Chilled Sausage Meat 227Liquid+Grnd Coffee+Beans 226Complete Dry/Ambient Mls 222

52 w/e Oct 4 2009Fresh Lamb 187









M&S - Flawed Model

Home Delivery


Hard Discounters Share of Till Roll Grocers

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Aldi / Lidl / Netto Aldi / Lidl / Netto Baseline

http://www.armaghonline.com/uploads/lidl.gif

http://www.netto.co.uk/internet/nettog/menu/main.nsf


Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers

0

1

2

3

4

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Aldi Lidl Netto

http://www.armaghonline.com/uploads/lidl.gif

http://www.netto.co.uk/internet/nettog/menu/main.nsf


Kwik Save Share of Till Roll Grocers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Kwik Save

http://www.kwiksave.co.uk/index.htm


Kwik Save + Discounters Combined Market Share £%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

26-M

ar-0

6

23-A

pr-0

6

21-M

ay-0

6

18-J

un-0

6

16-J

ul-0

6

13-A

ug-0

6

10-S

ep-0

6

08-O

ct-0

6

05-N

ov-0

6

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-0

7

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un-0

7

15-J

ul-0

7

12-A

ug-0

7

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-0

7

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-0

8

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un-0

8

13-J

ul-0

8

10-A

ug-0

8

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-0

8

30-N

ov-0

8

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-0

9

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un-0

9

12-J

ul-0

9

09-A

ug-0

9

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

Kwik Save + Discounters


Retailer Average Spend Trends

0

10

20

30

40

50

6005

-No

v-06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

AW

P (

£)

Lidl Aldi Netto


Retailer Penetration Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

05-N

ov-

06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

Lidl Aldi Netto


Aldi

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

30 D

ec 0

7

27 J

an 0

8

24 F

eb 0

8

23 M

ar 0

8

20 A

pr 0

8

18 M

ay 0

8

15 J

un 0

8

13 J

ul 0

8

10 A

ug 0

8

07 S

ep 0

8

05 O

ct 0

8

02 N

ov 0

8

30 N

ov 0

8

28 D

ec 0

8

25 J

an 0

9

22 F

eb 0

9

22 M

ar 0

9

19 A

pr 0

9

17 M

ay 0

9

14 J

un 0

9

12 J

ul 0

9

09 A

ug 0

9

06 S

ep 0

9

04 O

ct 0

9

Act

ual

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n (

000,

000s

)



Lidl

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7030

Dec

07

27 J

an 0

8

24 F

eb 0

8

23 M

ar 0

8

20 A

pr 0

8

18 M

ay 0

8

15 J

un 0

8

13 J

ul 0

8

10 A

ug 0

8

07 S

ep 0

8

05 O

ct 0

8

02 N

ov 0

8

30 N

ov 0

8

28 D

ec 0

8

25 J

an 0

9

22 F

eb 0

9

22 M

ar 0

9

19 A

pr 0

9

17 M

ay 0

9

14 J

un 0

9

12 J

ul 0

9

09 A

ug 0

9

06 S

ep 0

9

04 O

ct 0

9

Act

ual

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n (

000,

000s

)


http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.carroteuro.com/carroteuro/UserFiles/Image/Reference%2520CZ/lidl%2520logo.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.carroteuro.com/carroteuro/category.php%3Fid_category%3D77%26id_language%3D1&usg=__ZTAjxsSEj5Yrw3GuQg6Hr9Pye88=&h=308&w=310&sz=11&hl=en&start=4&um=1&tbnid=Rqc6LfyvSorLrM:&tbnh=116&tbnw=117&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dlidl%2Blogo%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN


Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % changeTotal Hard Discounters

16.9

13.3

12.1

8.9

5.6

5.0

0.2

Total Fresh+Chilled

Total AmbientGroceries

TOTAL GROCERIES

Total Household

Total Alcohol

Total Frozen

Total Toiletries

52 w/e 04 Oct 09


Somerfield Share of Till Roll Grocers

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Somerfield Somerfield Baseline

http://www.somerfield.co.uk/site/home/index.asp


Somerfield Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

26-M

ar-0

6

23-A

pr-

06

21-M

ay-0

6

18-J

un

-06

16-J

ul-

06

13-A

ug

-06

10-S

ep-0

6

08-O

ct-0

6

05-N

ov-

06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

12 w/e Periods


Co-operative Share of Till Roll Grocers

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Total Co-op Total Co-op Baseline


The Co-operative Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

26-M

ar-0

6

23-A

pr-

06

21-M

ay-0

6

18-J

un

-06

16-J

ul-

06

13-A

ug

-06

10-S

ep-0

6

08-O

ct-0

6

05-N

ov-

06

03-D

ec-0

6

31-D

ec-0

6

28-J

an-0

7

25-F

eb-0

7

25-M

ar-0

7

22-A

pr-

07

20-M

ay-0

7

17-J

un

-07

15-J

ul-

07

12-A

ug

-07

09-S

ep-0

7

07-O

ct-0

7

04-N

ov-

07

02-D

ec-0

7

30-D

ec-0

7

27-J

an-0

8

24-F

eb-0

8

23-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-

08

18-M

ay-0

8

15-J

un

-08

13-J

ul-

08

10-A

ug

-08

07-S

ep-0

8

05-O

ct-0

8

02-N

ov-

08

30-N

ov-

08

28-D

ec-0

8

25-J

an-0

9

22-F

eb-0

9

22-M

ar-0

9

19-A

pr-

09

17-M

ay-0

9

14-J

un

-09

12-J

ul-

09

09-A

ug

-09

06-S

ep-0

9

04-O

ct-0

9

12 w/e Periods


Co-op / Somerfield Store Sales

Morrisons 38

Sainsbury’s 24

Waitrose 13

Tesco 7

Musgrave 6

Spar 6


Fairtrade Indices

361

300

251

138

100

90

81

78

59

48

35

33

31

18

4

Co-operative

Waitrose

Sainsbury

M & S

Tot Grocers

Tot Indepts

Netto

Farm Foods

Iceland

Lidl

Asda

Morrisons

Tesco

Somerfield

Aldi

Share of Fairtrade Indexed onTotal Grocery Share - Oct 4 2009


Measures = Penetration of GB HomesRank 52 w/e 06 Sep 09

Tesco 1 88Asda 2 72Sainsbury 3 69Morrisons 4 63Total Co-operative 5 62M & S 6 59Co-operative 7 46Iceland 8 43Aldi 9 43Lidl 10 42Tot Indepts 11 41Somerfield 12 37Waitrose 13 24Farm Foods 14 18Netto 15 14

Household Penetrations








M&S - Flawed Model

Home Delivery


M&S Share of Retailer ShareTrack Grocers

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

M & S M & S Baseline

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b3/M%26S_Logo.svg


Trading Indices – M&S

Broad Area

Market Sector

MarketTotal Fresh+Chilled 169Total Ambient Groceries 72Total Alcohol 59Total Frozen 32Total Toiletries 19Total Household 11Total Healthcare 1

Chilled Bakery Products 444Chilled Convenience 439Fresh Fish 349Fresh Poultry+Game 190Biscuits 141Ambient Bakery Products 140Fruit+Veg+Salads 127Chilled Drinks 120Take Home Confectionery 114Frozen Fish 103Fresh Meat 94Take Home Savouries 79

Fresh Stuffing 2399Chilled Gravy+Stock 1384Chilled Prepared Fish 1305Seasonal Biscuits 1141Mens Mass Fragrances 1126Chilled Ready Meals 1006Chilled Sausage Meat 693Chilled Salad Accomps 626Chilled Rice 626Chilled Desserts 590Chilled Cakes 559Ambient Christmas Pudding 558Chilled Prepared Frt+Veg 512Other Chilled Convenience 467Chilled One Shot Drinks 462Chilled Prepared Salad 456Chilled Burgers+Grills 410P/P Fresh Meat+Veg+Pastry 402Fresh Flavoured Meats 381Canned Hot Meats 348

52 w/e Oct 4 2009


Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % changeM&S

23.1

6.1

4.1

0.8

-0.3

-3.5

-6.1

Total Toiletries

Total Alcohol

Total Household

Total Fresh+Chilled

TOTAL GROCERIES

Total Frozen

Total AmbientGroceries

52 w/e 04 Oct 09


Share of Total Grocers - Fresh+Chilled

30.8

18.1

15.6

12.3

6.1

5.3

5.3

4.0

2.1

1.9

1.3

1.4

0.6

0.2

30.3

18.1

15.9

12.7

5.8

5.2

5.2

3.2

2.4

2.1

1.4

1.3

0.6

0.3

Tesco

Sainsbury

Asda

Morrisons

M & S

Waitrose

Co-operative

Somerfield

Aldi

Lidl

Iceland

Tot Indepts

Netto

Farm Foods

52 w/e 05 Oct 08 52 w/e 04 Oct 09


Trended Loyalty Breakdown

53.7 53.6 53.4

17.0 13.5 11.70%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

07-Oct-07 05-Oct-08 04-Oct-09 07-Oct-07 05-Oct-08 04-Oct-0952 w/e periods

High Loyal (>50%) Medium Loyal (>20%) Low Loyal (>0%)

Waitrose % M&S %









M&S - Flawed Model

Home Delivery


Home Delivery Share of Till Roll Grocers

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

No

v 05

200

6

Dec

03

2006

Dec

31

2006

Jan

28

2007

Feb

25

2007

Mar

25

2007

Ap

r 22

200

7

May

20

2007

Jun

17

2007

Jul 1

5 20

07

Au

g 1

2 20

07

Sep

09

2007

Oct

07

2007

No

v 04

200

7

Dec

02

2007

Dec

30

2007

Jan

27

2008

Feb

24

2008

Mar

23

2008

Ap

r 20

200

8

May

18

2008

Jun

15

2008

Jul 1

3 20

08

Au

g 1

0 20

08

Sep

07

2008

Oct

05

2008

No

v 02

200

8

No

v 30

200

8

Dec

28

2008

Jan

25

2009

Feb

22

2009

Mar

22

2009

Ap

r 19

200

9

May

17

2009

Jun

14

2009

Jul 1

2 20

09

Au

g 0

9 20

09

Sep

06

2009

Oct

04

2009


Sh

are

(E

xp

en

dit

ure

)

Tesco Internet Sainsbury Internet Asda Internet Waitrose+Ocado Internet


Total Internet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Pre-Family YoungFamily 0-4

Years

MiddleFamily 5-9

Years

Family 10+Years

OlderDependents

EmptyNesters

Retired


Lifestage Signatures Outlet Share within Demographic Group


Grocery Internet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

£0 - £9999pa

£10000 -£19999 pa

£20000 -£29999 pa

£30000 -£39999 pa

£40000 -£49999 pa

£50000 -£59999 pa

£60000 -£69999 pa

£70000 +


Household Income Signatures Outlet Share within Demographic Group


Till Roll - Duplication by Tesco Internet Buyers

9.6

5.2

2.2

72.0

7.3

29.9

32.2

23.5

436

400

314

111

76

73

72

61

Asda Internet

Sainsbury's Internet

Waitrose Internet

Tesco

Waitrose

Sainsbury's

Asda

Morrisons

Buyers also Buying Duplication Index8 w/e Oct 4 2009


Total Internet Share Index

Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Jun 14 2009

I think I will be doing more of my grocery shopping online in the future 549I am always under time pressure when I do grocery shopping 195I regularly use the Internet to find ways to make my life easier 181I am prepared to pay more for organic food 172My style is influenced by celebrities or people I see in TV or in magazines 165I try to give my children healthy meals 161I am actively encouraging my children to have a more active lifestyle 161My children eat what I eat 160I have little time to myself 157People in my household like to have the latest technology available 157I feel I spend enough quality time with my children 155I regularly use different types of media to keep up with the latest fashion trends 152I work to a strict budget when I'm buying groceries 151I rely heavily on convenience products to make cooking simple/quick 149Members of my household often influence the brands and products that I buy 148I tend to give my children what they want for their meals 148I am always looking out for health & beauty products with new added benefits 145I make a shopping list before I go out and stick to it 141The nutritional labeling on food & drink products has an effect on what I buy 140If usual product is unavailable than I buy another size rather than change brands 139


Lamb


Fresh Lamb Indices

187

154

136

97

96

95

68

66

32

15

12

11

2

2

Waitrose

Sainsbury

Somerfield

Morrisons

Tesco

Asda

M & S

Co-operative

Tot Indepts

Farm Foods

Iceland

Lidl

Netto

Aldi

Outlet Share Index52 w/e Oct 4 2009


Fresh Lamb: Price YOY versus Volume YOYA key relationship between price increases and Lamb volume

movements can be seen. Lamb shoppers are price sensitive

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

12 W

/e 3

0 Dec

07

12 W

/e 2

7 Ja

n 08

12 W

/e 2

4 Feb

08

12 W

/e 2

3 M

ar 0

8

12 W

/e 2

0 Apr 0

8

12 W

/e 1

8 M

ay 0

8

12 W

/e 1

5 Ju

n 08

12 W

/e 1

3 Ju

l 08

12 W

/e 1

0 Aug

08

12 W

/e 0

7 Sep

08

12 W

/e 0

5 O

ct 0

8

12 W

/e 0

2 Nov

08

12 W

/e 3

0 Nov

08

12 W

/e 2

8 Dec

08

12 W

/e 2

5 Ja

n 09

12 W

/e 2

2 Feb

09

12 W

/e 2

2 M

ar 0

9

12 W

/e 1

9 Apr 0

9

12 W

/e 1

7 M

ay 0

9

12 W

/e 1

4 Ju

n 09

12 W

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 W

/e 0

9 Aug

09

12 W

/e 0

6 Sep

09

12 W

/e 0

4 O

ct 0

9

YO

Y %

Ch

ang

e

Vol Kg Change Price Kg Change


Fresh Red Meat Sector PerformanceLamb, followed by Beef see the greatest volume declines. Pork volume sales remain relatively static

6.1 6.0

1.0

-3.4

-0.1

-5.5

Beef Pork Lamb

Spend YOY Volume YOY

52 w/e 4th October 2009 versus Yr Ago

Fresh Red Meat Sector SharesBeef has the largest shares, but loses volume share. Pork has

second largest share and gains, whilst Lamb loses market share

54.9 55.4 52.8 52.4

25.2 25.5 29.1 29.8

18.0 17.3 14.7 14.3

3.3 3.41.81.9

Spend 08 Spend 09 Volume 08 Volume 09

Other Meat+Offal

Lamb

Pork

Beef

52 w/e 4th October 2009 versus Yr Ago


Reminders


Reminders

TescoFighting Back


Backto

Price

Reminders

TescoFighting Back


TescoFighting Back

Value&

Values

Reminders

Backto

Price


MovingNationwide

TescoFighting Back

Reminders

Backto

Price

Value&

Values


TescoFighting Back

Reminders

TheEthical

Consumer

Backto

Price

Value&

ValuesMovingNationwide


It's their time?

TescoFighting Back

Reminders

Backto

Price

Value&


TheEthical

Consumer


It's their time?

TescoFighting Back

Reminders

Backto

Price

Value&


TheEthical

Consumer

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b3/M%26S_Logo.svg


It's their time?

TescoFighting Back

Reminders

Backto

Price

Value&


TheEthical

Consumer


Thank you

ed.garner

@tns-global.com

Documents

© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2009 Edward Garner Communications Director Worldpanel – UK GB Grocery Retailer Overview Meat Promotion Wales – 12 November