Update on Irish Potato Market - Irish Farmers' Association · © Kantar Worldpanel 3 © Kantar Worldpanel Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index

© Kantar Worldpanel © Kantar Worldpanel

Update on Irish Potato Market Cliona Lynch - Kantar Worldpanel

© Kantar Worldpanel

Agenda

1. The grocery landscape

2. Potato category importance

3. Potato category performance

4. Addressing market challenges


3


Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index


3.8% 2.9%

-0.6%

0.7%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

90

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Inflation HH Spend change

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Ireland (ROI )

Grocery inflation across 38,000 items

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ROI market growth vs. inflation


So how are shoppers coping?

Buy less?

+0.2%

Trade Down?

-2%

Store choice?

-1%


Kantar ROI data to October 2011

% Value Growth

Growth of Discounters


7


Premiumisation


23% of shoppers

choose their store

because they have a

voucher

*KantarWorldpanel LinkQ questionnaire Christmas 2013

Importance of vouchers


54.4 53.4 52

45.6 46.6 48

2011 2012 2013

+6.7%

-3.0%

VS.

Ambient grocery value share of Private Label


Growth of Private Label/Own Brands


Impact of special offers



Consumers avail of cheaper prices in the battle of the retailers But buy more as a result

Value down

-20%

Volume up

+16%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 4we 5th Jan 2014


Agenda






105 million* packs of potatoes sold in 2013

Potatoes are bought once every 0.6 seconds in Irish Retailers

1.58 million households purchasing annually

15


11%

21%

Occasions Spend

€20 €43.20

11% of all shopping trips feature potatoes. These trips contribute 21% of all sales. When potatoes are included in the basket, these grocery trips are worth more than average highlighting the importance of the potato category to retailers


% of households buying (penetration)…

From a shopper perspective Potatoes

are the 8th most important category in

store

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Jan 2014

100%

99%

98%

97%

97%

97%

96%

96%

#1

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Agenda






Potato is up yoy as a result of price increases. Volume per trip is taking value out of the market

19

Potatoes | Total Outlets | 52 w/e | 05-Jan-14


Value sales are up considerably in the last 2 years but still down from 2007/08 levels

20


Value growth is somewhat negated by on-going volume declines


Frequency of purchase has recovered since lows of 2011 and is relatively stable over the last two years with shoppers returning often

22


Despite these more frequent visits to store volumes are still in decline as shoppers cut back on how much they buy


Moving to smaller packs will have led to cutting back

% volume share


25

7.5kg <2.5kg

The growth of these two

pack sizes has

decreased volumes in the market


26

Total Outlets | 52 w/e | 05-Jan-14

Strongest performance in varieties comes from Roosters – winning new shoppers and frequency.


27

In value share Roosters accounted for almost 50% last year with Maris Piper showing strongest growth


28

In volume terms Roosters have a clear lead and over 50% of the category sales


Agenda






30

Potatoes | 52 w/e | 05-Jan-14

The key challenge across retailers is the decline in volume per trip


‘Little & Often’ Shopping

2011 54 Trips

2012 56 Trips

2013 57 Trips


Where are Potatoes losing volumes?

32


33

Volumes are down with Older Shoppers and there is an opportunity of €21m if we can grow Youngers Shoppers to the market average

€16.9m €4.1m


34

Looking at just those smaller households – Pre and young family purchase more volumes than empty nesters in …

Showing evolving tastes and not just smaller households are the problem for Potato. But remember our Younger shoppers are the families of tomorrow & will carry these tastes with them.

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35

New varieties and alternatives show an opposite trend as consumer look for new substitutes


Volume switches show shoppers moving spend v last year

36

711k

306k

608k

116k

Pack switch 52we 5th Jan 2014

472k

386k

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37


Although Potato sees some switching, this is not the main problem. The main problem is the reduction in spend from existing shoppers (shoppers held) not loss to other carbs. Shoppers are just choosing to buy less potatoes


Where to from here?

38


Key take aways

Vital Category

Drive Footfall

Key to high € trips

Choices appeal to modern shopper

Changing &

internationalising tastes

Convenience, pack size & promotion

Building on emotional appeal of potatoes

Growing younger shopper

interest

Education on nutrition & reassurance on health/weight

management


Documents

Update on Irish Potato Market - Irish Farmers' Association · © Kantar Worldpanel 3 © Kantar Worldpanel Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index