Project delivery:

more for less -

‘no pressure then ... ?’ David MacLeod

Crystal Ball Projects

18th March 2015, Glasgow

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Why project management?

“All work today is project work”

Tom Peters

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NOT project management!

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• Start: defined

• End: defined - deadline

• Single objective

• Deliverables, outputs, products,

• Risk and uncertainty

• Benefits and change

• Temporary resources

• Constraints, assumptions

• Unique … every time

Project manager! Plan Overhead?

Project characteristics

project

bau

project

project

project

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“The December 2004

deadline for removing

the oldest slam-door

train seems to have

been set …

… without any attempt

to find out if it was

feasible or realistic”

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Whatever we do must be in accord with human nature. We cannot drive people; we must direct their development. The general policy of the past has been to drive; but the era of force must give way to the era of knowledge, and the policy of the future will be to teach and lead, to the advantage of all concerned.

Henry Gantt

© Crystal Ball Projects Limited, 2011

Are we learning?

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“Unrealistic targets” – major reason for project failure. Why? Political pressures and other adverse political interference may lead to unrealistic timescales. Major Projects Seminar, November 2003

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“Unrealistic targets” – major reason for project failure. Why? Political pressures and other adverse political interference may lead to unrealistic timescales. Major Projects Seminar, November 2003

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Rural Payments Scheme “The single payment scheme’s … implementation last year to a near-impossible timetable was a masterclass in bad decision-making, poor planning, incomplete testing of IT systems, confused lines of responsibility, scant objective management information and a failure by the management team to face up to the unfolding crisis.” Edward Leigh, Chairman Public Accounts Committee, 2006

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Lessons learned?

West Coast Mainline “The original aims were, however, overly ambitious and work has taken longer and cost more than originally envisaged” Public Accounts Committee, 2007

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Regional Fire Control Centres “It was approved on the basis of unrealistic estimates of costs and under-appreciation of the complexity of the IT involved and the project was hurriedly implemented and poorly managed” National Audit Office, 2011

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DWP – Universal Credit “When setting up the programme the Department adopted an ambitious timetable for national roll-out from October 2013. The ambitious timetable created pressure on the Department to act quickly” National Audit Office, 2013

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“Crossrail is a textbook example of how to focus on the essentials of programme management, including defining a realistic scope, establishing a management team with the necessary skills and securing the required funding. Two years of planning took place before the construction programme began on Crossrail, allowing the scope of the programme to be well defined, resulting in only a handful of subsequent changes being required.”

Public Accounts Committee, 2014

Not all bad …

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Words …

• ambitious • tight • challenging • aggressive • demanding • stretching • fixed • audacious • bold • brutal

.. deadline

.. schedule .. timeline

or .. budget

• Reckless • Risky • Impossible • Problematic • Tricky • Onerous • Intractable • Rough • Sticky • Dangerous

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Crystal Ball definitions

Desired Unplanned Financial Figure

Most deadlines are DUDs ...

Desired Unplanned Date

Most budgets are DUFF ...

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The iron triangle …

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Hierarchy of constraints …

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Two key questions …

Should we?

Can we?

Plan

Business Case

Sponsor

Project Manager

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Who am I … ?!

Two hats

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A fine line

Stress: Physical, emotional or mental pressure Pressure: The act of pressing or squeezing; constraining force or influence; urgency; a strong demand

Can you see it?

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The world moves fast

Move faster with Yammer

Change is the new constant Go further – faster

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“ … in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”

Benjamin Franklin

“… in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes and … uncertainty.”

David MacLeod

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O P ML PV

5 12 10 9.5

Estimate

= range

5+12+40 = 57/6 = 9.5

“Courteously stubborn”

0 + P + (4 * ML) 6

PV =

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First, our techniques of estimation are poorly developed. More seriously, they reflect an unvoiced assumption which is quite untrue i.e. that all will go well.

Second, our estimating techniques fallaciously confuse effort with progress, hiding the assumption that men and months are interchangeable.

Third, because we are uncertain of our estimates, software managers often lack the courteous stubbornness of the chef (Antoine).

Fourth, schedule progress is poorly monitored. Techniques proven and routine in other engineering disciplines are considered radical innovations in software engineering.

Fifth, when schedule slippage is recognized, the natural tendency and traditional response is to add more manpower. Like dousing a fire with gasoline, this makes matters worse, much worse. More fire requires more gasoline, and thus begins a regenerative cycle which ends in disaster.

Courteous stubbornness …

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“Free range” estimates …

“Battery” estimates …

Estimating

Challenge to understand, not to undermine

Conversation not negotiation

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“ … appraisers should make explicit, empirically based adjustments to the estimates of a project’s costs, benefits, and duration.”

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Truth

Trust

White text

Connecting for Health insisted that the

removal of Accenture would not increase the

bill for the project or threaten its deadline.

It is delayed by two years already but CfH

insists it will make up this lost time …

NHS super upgrade

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Target

An object or result to be aimed at

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“Because I’ve said so …“

“I cannot see any excuse”

“Suddenly brought forward

… is added pressure on us”

Nothing is ever difficult

for the person who

doesn’t have to do it

“.. can’t hurry the plants up”

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Targets “Your talent, your dedication and commitment brought you here. Now you have a chance to become true Olympians. That honour is determined not by whether you win, but by how you compete …

Jaques Rogge

Character counts far more than medals.”

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Medal haul

Rank by

total Nation Gold Silver Bronze Total

1

United States of

America 46 29 29 104

2

People's Republic

of China 38 27 23 88

3 Great Britain 29 17 19 65

4 Russian Federation 24 26 32 82

5 South Korea 13 8 7 28

PDUs

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Conclusions …

Plans not pressure

Make the uncertainty visible

More for less? Sure! More WHAT? CLARITY of objective

Proper estimates

Trust , don’t target

It’s the magic inside!

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“An adventure is the result of

poor planning”