Project delivery:
more for less -
‘no pressure then ... ?’ David MacLeod
Crystal Ball Projects
18th March 2015, Glasgow
Slide 4
• Start: defined
• End: defined - deadline
• Single objective
• Deliverables, outputs, products,
• Risk and uncertainty
• Benefits and change
• Temporary resources
• Constraints, assumptions
• Unique … every time
Project manager! Plan Overhead?
Project characteristics
project
bau
project
project
project
Slide 6
“The December 2004
deadline for removing
the oldest slam-door
train seems to have
been set …
… without any attempt
to find out if it was
feasible or realistic”
Slide 7
Whatever we do must be in accord with human nature. We cannot drive people; we must direct their development. The general policy of the past has been to drive; but the era of force must give way to the era of knowledge, and the policy of the future will be to teach and lead, to the advantage of all concerned.
Henry Gantt
© Crystal Ball Projects Limited, 2011
Are we learning?
Slide 8
“Unrealistic targets” – major reason for project failure. Why? Political pressures and other adverse political interference may lead to unrealistic timescales. Major Projects Seminar, November 2003
Slide 9
“Unrealistic targets” – major reason for project failure. Why? Political pressures and other adverse political interference may lead to unrealistic timescales. Major Projects Seminar, November 2003
Slide 10
Rural Payments Scheme “The single payment scheme’s … implementation last year to a near-impossible timetable was a masterclass in bad decision-making, poor planning, incomplete testing of IT systems, confused lines of responsibility, scant objective management information and a failure by the management team to face up to the unfolding crisis.” Edward Leigh, Chairman Public Accounts Committee, 2006
Slide 11
Lessons learned?
West Coast Mainline “The original aims were, however, overly ambitious and work has taken longer and cost more than originally envisaged” Public Accounts Committee, 2007
Slide 12
Regional Fire Control Centres “It was approved on the basis of unrealistic estimates of costs and under-appreciation of the complexity of the IT involved and the project was hurriedly implemented and poorly managed” National Audit Office, 2011
Slide 13
DWP – Universal Credit “When setting up the programme the Department adopted an ambitious timetable for national roll-out from October 2013. The ambitious timetable created pressure on the Department to act quickly” National Audit Office, 2013
Slide 14
“Crossrail is a textbook example of how to focus on the essentials of programme management, including defining a realistic scope, establishing a management team with the necessary skills and securing the required funding. Two years of planning took place before the construction programme began on Crossrail, allowing the scope of the programme to be well defined, resulting in only a handful of subsequent changes being required.”
Public Accounts Committee, 2014
Not all bad …
Slide 15
Words …
• ambitious • tight • challenging • aggressive • demanding • stretching • fixed • audacious • bold • brutal
.. deadline
.. schedule .. timeline
or .. budget
• Reckless • Risky • Impossible • Problematic • Tricky • Onerous • Intractable • Rough • Sticky • Dangerous
Slide 16
Crystal Ball definitions
Desired Unplanned Financial Figure
Most deadlines are DUDs ...
Desired Unplanned Date
Most budgets are DUFF ...
Slide 21
A fine line
Stress: Physical, emotional or mental pressure Pressure: The act of pressing or squeezing; constraining force or influence; urgency; a strong demand
Can you see it?
Slide 22
The world moves fast
Move faster with Yammer
Change is the new constant Go further – faster
Slide 23
“ … in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”
Benjamin Franklin
“… in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes and … uncertainty.”
David MacLeod
Slide 25
O P ML PV
5 12 10 9.5
Estimate
= range
5+12+40 = 57/6 = 9.5
“Courteously stubborn”
0 + P + (4 * ML) 6
PV =
Slide 26
First, our techniques of estimation are poorly developed. More seriously, they reflect an unvoiced assumption which is quite untrue i.e. that all will go well.
Second, our estimating techniques fallaciously confuse effort with progress, hiding the assumption that men and months are interchangeable.
Third, because we are uncertain of our estimates, software managers often lack the courteous stubbornness of the chef (Antoine).
Fourth, schedule progress is poorly monitored. Techniques proven and routine in other engineering disciplines are considered radical innovations in software engineering.
Fifth, when schedule slippage is recognized, the natural tendency and traditional response is to add more manpower. Like dousing a fire with gasoline, this makes matters worse, much worse. More fire requires more gasoline, and thus begins a regenerative cycle which ends in disaster.
Courteous stubbornness …
Slide 27
“Free range” estimates …
“Battery” estimates …
Estimating
Challenge to understand, not to undermine
Conversation not negotiation
Slide 28
“ … appraisers should make explicit, empirically based adjustments to the estimates of a project’s costs, benefits, and duration.”
Connecting for Health insisted that the
removal of Accenture would not increase the
bill for the project or threaten its deadline.
It is delayed by two years already but CfH
insists it will make up this lost time …
NHS super upgrade
Slide 32
“Because I’ve said so …“
“I cannot see any excuse”
“Suddenly brought forward
… is added pressure on us”
Nothing is ever difficult
for the person who
doesn’t have to do it
“.. can’t hurry the plants up”
Slide 33
Targets “Your talent, your dedication and commitment brought you here. Now you have a chance to become true Olympians. That honour is determined not by whether you win, but by how you compete …
Jaques Rogge
Character counts far more than medals.”
Slide 34
Medal haul
Rank by
total Nation Gold Silver Bronze Total
1
United States of
America 46 29 29 104
2
People's Republic
of China 38 27 23 88
3 Great Britain 29 17 19 65
4 Russian Federation 24 26 32 82
5 South Korea 13 8 7 28
PDUs
Slide 35
Conclusions …
Plans not pressure
Make the uncertainty visible
More for less? Sure! More WHAT? CLARITY of objective
Proper estimates
Trust , don’t target
It’s the magic inside!