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Informa Telecoms & Media 2012 Research Agenda Your global research partner www.informatandm.com

Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012

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Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our 2012 research agenda with you

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Page 1: Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012

Informa Telecoms & Media 2012 Research AgendaYour global research partner

www.informatandm.com

Page 2: Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012

Informa Telecoms & Media is the leading provider of research, events and training to the global telecoms and media industry.

Every year, 10,000 companies use our services to evaluate market opportunities, benchmark their competitors and grow their businesses.

We are part of Informa PLC, the leading provider of business information and services with over 8,000 employees in 150 offices worldwide.

ReseARch And consulTIng

Our research business delivers independent strategic insight, global market data and primary research. We work in partnership with our clients to inform their decision-making with actionable advice and support.

Key services include:

confeRences And exhIbITIons

Our 100+ annual events and exhibitions are critical in driving the industry’s agenda. We bring together high-calibre decision-makers from the mobile, fixed, alternative, wholesale, MVNO, broadband and satellite operator communities.

Key events include:

TRAInIng

The Telecoms Academy team delivers a public portfolio of over 50 training programmes every year. These include intensive five-day Telecoms Mini MBA and specialist next generation technology courses.

Make better business decisions

Page 3: Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012

At Informa Telecoms & Media we are never short of ideas for new topics and themes to research and analyze.

As analysts we spend our lives immersed in the telecoms and media industries, absorbing new information, speaking to key decision-makers and making connections between trends and developments across different countries and regions.

Producing a compelling research agenda is challenging because of the sheer breadth and diversity of the sectors that we cover. We started putting our ideas together for 2012 in the early summer and then condensing them into four key themes which, we believe, will drive this industry forward over the next 12 months. Details of our 2012 research themes start on page 12.

Our four key themes for 2012 are;· The transformed telco· Reengineering the broadband business model· Services, ecosystems and connected devices· Seizing new revenue opportunities

The four themes have six mini themes, each of which will be explored in some detail. They capture the big questions that the industry is now asking itself. How relevant are operators in the new services ecosystem? Can operators protect (and grow!) profit margins by cost-cutting alone? Should TV companies partner with Internet firms? Is operator focus shifting from consumer to business and enterprise markets (we think it is)? And how quickly should operators roll out next generation networks?

Most important of all, our analysts' opinons are always based on a solid foundation of market data and forecasts.

We look forward to working with you over the next year as we explore these themes. And, as ever, we welcome your own thoughts and feedback.

Mark Newman Chief Research Officer [email protected]

Welcome To our 2012 Research Agenda

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Page 4: Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012

We cAn help you…

Plan your strategic direction:– Prioritize growth opportunities– Size market supply and demand– Benchmark your performance

Build competitor and customer intelligence:– Identify business drivers– Understand threats and challenges– Develop product, positioning and sales strategies

Drive product development and positioning:– Justify your business cases– Formulate a pricing strategy– Prepare a market entry timetable

Why choose us?

1We provide a unique mix of in-market, sector and forecasting expertise to ensure local insight and a definitive view. We don’t sit on the fence.

2Our analysts benefit from exclusive access to a broad community of senior-level decision makers. We don’t lock them in ivory towers.

3We collect and interpret more data across more markets than anyone else. We don’t outsource data collection.

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Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years.

We have more than 60 analysts in 10 research offices across 5 continents helping our clients make better decisions. They are accessible, responsive and connected to your markets, business goals and challenges.

Our clients rely on us to gather competitor and customer intelligence, steer product development and drive strategic planning.

Because our analysts spend more of their time engaging with our clients at events, briefings and through our support service, we are always close to your business issues.

benefit from our expertise

Page 5: Informa Telecoms & Media's research business has been the leading provider of strategic insight, key market data and forecasts for more than 25 years. I'm pleased to share our research-agenda-2012

ouR ReseARch Includes

Market data and 5-year forecastsFive-year historical and forecast metrics including subscription, network and device numbers and key financial and operational indicators. We have a centralized forecasting team working collaboratively with our analysts to ensure consistent results.

Analysis and case studies In-depth views on emerging trends and in-market case studies enable you to track operator strategy.

Country and company profiles Regular, analytical snapshots of market dynamics and company initiatives, delivered in PowerPoint.

Conference presentations A complete archive of speaker presentations from our 100+ annual conferences provides invaluable competitor and customer insight.

SurveysThe full results and detailed analysis of surveys designed to address industry perceptions across key topics. Respondents are drawn from our community of senior executives.

consulTIng And cusToMIZed ReseARch

We offer a complete range of customized research and consultancy services. All of our consulting engagements benefit from our core market data and forecasting expertise and access to our C-level industry communities.

Find out more www.informatandm.com /customised-research

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InTellIgence cenTRe

Intelligence Centre is the central online source of all of our advisory analysis, primary research, market data and forecasts. The service includes a number of powerful search, alerting and report tools as well as direct access to our analysts.

Find out more www.informatandm.com/ic

WoRld bRoAdbAnd InfoRMATIon seRvIce

WBIS is the complete broadband and multi-channel TV resource featuring broadband, fixed-line telephony and multichannel TV subscriber numbers from 2000 to 2011 and forecasts to 2016.

Find out more www.informatandm.com/wbis

WoRld cellulAR InfoRMATIon seRvIce

WCIS remains the cellular world’s leading source of accurate, robust data and 5-year forecasts. The service tracks global mobile subscriptions, KPIs, financial and operational indicators in real time and includes direct access to our analysts.

Find out more www.informatandm.com/wcis

neTWoRk econoMIcs Tool

NET is a new, easy to use online service which enables equipment vendors and operators to model the capital and operational cost of deploying and upgrading wireless broadband networks and understand ROI.

Find out more www.informatandm.com/net

our services

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We believe that providing direct access to our analysts is essential in ensuring our research is both relevant and actionable.

All of our services include direct analyst access enabling you to connect with our team via e-mail, telephone, webinars and face-to-face briefings. Analyst access can be used to clarify our findings, understand the background to developments or to further explore our views and methodologies.

Talk directly To our Analysts

WhAT ARe you AskIng us?

Analyst Access queries by topic over the last year:

AnAlysT Access exAMples

Client: I am looking at Informa’s latest LTE spectrum forecasts – could you please provide me some insight into the methodology used to develop the launch dates for Sprint's LTE networks in the US?

Analyst Access:As a part of its Network Vision plan, Sprint plans to turn down iDEN, which operates in the 800 band, beginning in 2013. It is Informa’s belief that it is at this time that that band will be transitioned to LTE.

In addition, at the time the forecast was prepared, it was our belief that Sprint would work with Clearwire to provide LTE in the 2500 band, and that it would happen relatively quickly. Last week, Clearwire made an announcement that it will deploy LTE in the 2500 band in some of its existing markets without working with Sprint. Clearwire said it may work with Sprint and its Network Vision plan to build new markets in the future.

Finally, Sprint is expected to maintain its CDMA network in the 1900 band for the near future, hence the later date expected for that band.

It is also worth noting, Sprint recently announced plans to work with LightSquared on LTE in the L-band (1600 band).

Client: Do you have any comment on how the IDEOS smartphone has been received in Kenya?

Analyst Access:I was in Nairobi when the IDEOS smartphone was launched in the market by Safaricom. From my conversations with distributors, I sense that the market response in terms of sales has been quite impressive, although no figures have yet been released. The price of the device is low compared to other smart phones in the market (it retails at US$100). The device’s most popular features appear to be its high resolution touch screen, the 3.2 Megapixel camera and the presence of multiple applications.

KPIs / financials ................ 24%

Mobile / fixed access networks ............................ 13%

Connected home .............. 5%

Mobile content and applications ...................... 10%

Operational strategies .... 4%

Device market and segmentation ..................... 4%

Market sizing ...................... 9%

Mobile broadband ........... 5%

MVNOs .................................. 3%

Pricing / tariffs .................... 5%

Smartphones / operating systems ................................. 7%

Other ................................... 11%

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Our consulting expertise is founded on our deep industry engagement and delivered by our experienced network of analysts.

Our approach to your business issues and objectives is practical and pragmatic. All of our consulting engagements benefit from our core market data and forecasting expertise and access to our C-level industry communities.

consulting and customized Research

cusToMIsed soluTIons Include:

– Benchmark reports– Surveys– Webinars– White papers– Country reports– Company reports– Forecasts– Go-to-market reports– Case studies– Event facilitation– Speaking engagements– Workshops

cAse sTudIes

Market SurveyClient: Value-added solutions provider for mobile operators.Objective: To transform its service proposition and validate views of the Asia Pacific market.

Solution: “Using our network of research contacts we tested the view of the APAC market by conducting a series of in-depth strategic interviews and

running a survey. This resulted in the publication of a White Paper taking the client’s message to a regional audience and was followed up by a series of strategic briefings to C-level service provider audiences in the region.”

White PaperClient: Tier 1 handset vendorObjective: To assess the effect of different smartphone operating systems on current mobile broadband networks and estimate the energy requirements that these create on the network.

Solution: “Coupling our in-house research and data with a bespoke analytical model and wide network of contacts, we were able to implement a modeling

tool. The result was a White Paper used by the client to promote its smartphone ecosystem and platform to mobile operators, thereby illustrating energy savings that will become important to its marketing efforts.”

Charles MoonPrincipal Analyst Nicholas Jotischky

Principal Analyst

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We believe that the diversity of global telecoms markets requires a distinctive regional view on localised trends, events and consumer patterns.

We achieve this by providing in-depth country perspectives. Over the last six months our analysts in 12 countries have produced 65 detailed country profiles.

global Reach

Mike Roberts Principal Analyst

Stephen Wilson Senior Analyst

Daniele Tricarico Senior Analyst

Dario Talmesio Principal Analyst

“In the midst of market consolidation, an understandable outcome of the mobile broadband boom, what the US mobile industry really needs is a hefty dose of spectrum by 2015. Without this, how will operators succeed in meeting the public’s proven demand for Internet and other applications running on smartphones, tablets and other devices?”

“Eastern European broadband and voice markets tend to be extremely competitive, and therefore bundling with multichannel TV is becoming an essential strategy for operators trying to increase subscriber loyalty. With average TV-viewing times high in the region, multichannel TV is a key part of the bundle and even has potential as a stand-alone product.”

“A key challenge for mobile operators in Latin America is how to deliver revenue-generating mobile content to the entire customer base. Operators must stop equating content to smartphones, and should address the entire prepaid segment including basic and low-feature devices.”

“Europe’s operators must implement competitive strategies in the attempt to counteract disintermediation. If successful, operators will embrace openness and morph into something similar to an OTT player.”

noRTh AMeRIcA eAsTeRn euRopelATIn AMeRIcA WesTeRn euRope

office locations worldwide: San Francisco – USA | Chicago – USA | Boston – USA | Sao Paolo – Brazil | London – UK | Johannesburg – South Africa | Dubai – UAE | Singapore | Beijing – China | Hyderabad – India | Brisbane – Australia

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Thecla Mbongue Senior Analyst

Matthew Reed Senior Analyst

Vanessa Jalleh Research Analyst

Charice Wang Senior Analyst

“Significant lessons can be learned from studying the practices of mobile operators in Africa. Be it through the use of dynamic tariffs, the spread of mobile-money services or the creation of loyalty schemes, many of Africa’s service providers recognize the importance of a well-segmented and relevant customer experience.”

“The growth prospects offered by the Middle East remain attractive, but the region is complex and varied and local understanding is necessary in order to take best advantage of its opportunities. Stronger focus will be placed on mobile broadband and the provision of converged services as operators look to become more relevant in meeting the evolving needs of consumers and enterprises alike.”

“With organic growth slowing in many markets around Southeast Asia, operators are focusing more on loyalty to maintain their competitive edge; customer analytic and business intelligence is therefore becoming a key enabler in gaining market share, as carriers compete in the brave new world of maturing markets.”

“North Asia continues to drive the region in terms of subscribers and revenues, with innovation coming from massive Internet players, particularly in the markets of Japan, Korea, and China. Pressure from over the top players in these markets are being addressed differently in each country, whether due to legacy issues (Japan), vendor influence (Korea), or government policy (China); we look at how mobile carriers in each are positioning themselves for the long term to address common challenges in their unique operating environments.”

AfRIcA MIddle eAsT AsIA pAcIfIcnoRTh AsIA

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office locations worldwide: San Francisco – USA | Chicago – USA | Boston – USA | Sao Paolo – Brazil | London – UK | Johannesburg – South Africa | Dubai – UAE | Singapore | Beijing – China | Hyderabad – India | Brisbane – Australia

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The transformed telco

2012 ReseARch AgendA

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Without such an evolution, operators will lose ground – and business – to the so-called over-the-top players. And they will fail to capture new revenue opportunities in mobile broadband, M2M and connected verticals.

With the slowdown in new connections, and operators’ limited success in selling ser-vices to their customers, efficiency and cost control have become the key modus operandi for many telcos.

The lean telco is a thread that runs through most of the issues and strategies surrounding the operator business. With flat – and in some cases stagnating – revenues in mature markets, operators are under pressure to cut opex levels. Managed services and outsourcing strategies are coming to the fore with operators more open than ever to relinquishing control of functions that have traditionally been seen as core to their business. Network sharing is gaining momen-tum, particularly as operators seek to justify investment in LTE.

Operators are also coming to recognize that they may need to partner with each other both to reduce costs and to develop platforms and capa-bilities that allow them to roll out new services. These operator-to-operator partnerships can be built both on a national level to enable third parties to deliver their services to all mobile users

in a single country, and on a regional or global basis to meet the requirements of global enter-prises or partners such as consumer electronics manufacturers.

Investment in next-generation fixed and wireless networks is challenging for any opera-tor whose revenues are stagnating in real terms. Operators are reluctant to increase their capex-to-sales ratios and are therefore taking a longer-term approach to rolling out new technologies such as LTE than was the case with 3G. New approaches to extending the life and improving the speeds delivered by copper and 3.5G networks are also combining to make the case for investing in new network technologies more challenging.

With the slowdown in the growth of new con-nections, operators are starting to place a greater emphasis on strategies to retain existing custom-ers than attracting new ones. Customer experi-ence has evolved from a customer-care approach to an important part of an operator’s corporate strategy to improve customer loyalty. The opera-tor needs to be able to offer a good experience throughout its touch points with customers, from the operator store, through the service experience to the call center. Customer information is now a means to differentiation as part of the customer experience.

Customer Experience Management (CEM) demands a holistic and unified approach from the operator’s different areas. A central customer database is required in order to provide consis-tency across all different channels and the infor-mation needed to deal with multiple challenges throughout a customer’s lifetime. Operators need to realize that customer experience plays a key role in customer loyalty and consequently in their profitability.

For many customers, the operator shop is the most important touch point. Operators are

looking to develop a more sophisticated retail approach as an integral part of their customer experience strategy. But unless they find a way of expanding into the new connected device market and become experts in mobile comput-ing, they risk becoming dumb shops and losing market share to consumer electronics shops that are accustomed to tight profit margins and find-ing the right balance between online and offline retailing.

With over-the-top (Internet) players now playing a dominant role in the provision of new services for the consumer market, operators are starting to review their role in the value chain and the balance between serving the consumer and business segments. This change in approach is seeing the operator become more of an enabler than a provider of new services and, in many cases, involves third-party service providers tran-sitioning into customers of the operator.

One of the areas where operators believe that they still have a strong role to play is in the use of the SIM card as a secure element in the provi-sion and sale of new services. Many of the part-nerships involving new services relate to mobile payments and transactions. In the case of NFC, operators want the SIM card to become the default method for securing applications.

Changes in technology, usage trends and the competitive landscape are

forcing telecoms operators to evolve a business model that has served them well for many decades.

Operators are looking to develop a more sophisticated retail approach as an integral part of their customer experience strategy.

Operators are reluctant to increase their capex-to-sales ratios and are therefore taking a longer-term approach to rolling out new technologies such as LTE.

The TRAnsfoRMed Telco

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2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs

Next-generation access

“Let’s face facts: few operators’ superfast broadband strategies have gone to plan. Take-up has been slow, yet next-generation access (NGA) networks haven’t got any

cheaper to build. Learning from success stories isn’t easy either. The huge cost and complexity of rolling out NGA has magnified differences between countries and operators, making the broadband market more fragmented than ever.”

Customer experience

“An outstanding customer experience should be embedded in all operator strategies, from marketing and advertising to network and smartphones. Operators should

focus on customer profitability by analyzing the potential customer life-time value across customer segments. The different demands will dictate the importance of various factors, affecting everything from subsidy rates to a diversity of bundled offers.”

Lean telco models

“If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as getting. Operating in a world of intense competition, regulatory intervention and macroeconomic uncertainty means

telcos are having to fight harder than ever to stabilize top-line revenues. Coupled with an investor climate exerting relentless pressure to maintain or grow operating margins, the need to evolve into a ruthlessly efficient, lean business has never been greater for today’s telco.

We believe, that some telcos are now achieving operational excellence and our globally-sourced case studies and analysis will identify companies that have done this successfully and, more importantly, outline how and why some telcos have been able to drive costs out of their businesses.”

Rob Gallagher Principal Analyst

Júlio Püschel Senior Analyst

Thomas Wehmeier Principal Analyst

> In 2012, our broadband and TV team will produce over 400 analysis pieces covering topics including next-generation access, IPTV and the connected home. Our analysis is designed to support your decision making and offer key points for action.

> Case studies provide real-life examples of service-provider strategies and best practice. Every case study includes a SWOT analysis and directional comment exploring key lessons learnt and likely development.

> Operator profiles enable you to track the performance of the 40 largest telcos globally. Delivered in PowerPoint they detail operational and financial performance, local market conditions, market share, regulatory developments, key operational initiatives and product and pricing updates.

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The TRAnsfoRMed Telco

Retail

“As consumers are changing their shopping behavior, telecom operators will follow them. Digital commerce, social-media networks, group-buying sites

and cross-channel sales will be used by operators intending to enhance customer experience across all channels. Meanwhile, operators will start retailing and billing for digital goods and services and sell new types of connected devices.

We will be monitoring the development of multichannel retail strategies, the use of social media as a sales and CRM channel in operator owned and independent retail channels through case studies and analysis, showcasing the most effective ways of getting customers to shop and pay for digital and telecom services.”

Operator partnerships

“Operators are coming to see the benefits of partnering with each other to create national, regional and global alliances. Within national markets, a number of operators

have joined forces on NFC to expand the potential market for those companies and organizations that are interested in rolling out mobile payment services. Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom are partnering in a number of different areas to expand their footprints, share development costs and create economies of scale. And when it comes to new opportunities in M2M and connected devices, global approaches are essential if operators are to forge alliances with consumer electronics firms and enterprises who themselves have a global presence and strategy.

Over the next year, we will compare the approaches of different operator groups and identify where the best opportunities for alliances exist. We will also identify the risks for operators that fail to partner and provide advice and recommendations for how best to exploit global opportunities without building global footprints.”

SIM, identity and security

“The evolution of the SIM is becoming an important issue for mobile operators as they strive to retain an important role in the provision of new services and connected

devices. The development of embedded SIMs and soft SIMs gives OEMs and MVNOs greater freedom to bring their products to market and has the potential to ultimately strengthen or, alternatively, to marginalize the operator.

Informa Telecoms & Media is monitoring the development of advanced SIM technology to identify any issues with security and to map the growth of the B2B2C services market for connectivity. We also seek to explore the long-term implications of this business model on wireless carriers, the evolution of their role and any changes in their relationship with the rest of the value chain.”

Dario Talmesio Principal Analyst

Mark Newman Chief Research Officer

Jamie Moss Senior Analyst

> We have been delivering successful consulting projects for over 15 years. Our approach to your objectives is practical and pragmatic; our in-market teams include specialists across the value chain, helping us deliver valid results quickly. > Analyst comments provide a quick, strategic analyst

view on trends and developments enabling you to understand, react and respond to market events.

> In 2012, our content and applications team will cover topics including mobile content and service value chains and ecosystems, video monetisation and the impact of HTML 5. Our analysis is designed to support your decision-making and offer points for action.

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2012 ReseARch AgendA

Re-engineering the broadband business model

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But, more recently, it has been the burgeoning usage of Internet services (and especially video) over mobile networks delivered to smartphones and laptops that has forced them to re-evaluate their pricing and service strategies.

While operators still harbor hopes of per-suading Internet companies to contribute to the cost of carrying high-bandwidth traffic, their most realistic hope of ensuring that broadband remains a profitable business involves explor-ing and implementing a whole range of differ-ent approaches for reducing the costs of carry-ing traffic and developing a more sophisticated approach towards pricing broadband access.

Most operators are now using a number of different techniques to understand and optimize the different types of traffic on their networks. At the same time, there is growing interest in using femtocells and Wi-Fi to offload data traffic. Rather than simply buying Wi-Fi capacity from third-party service providers, operators are now looking to build out their own Wi-Fi networks and offering access to them to both their fixed and mobile broadband customers.

Devices have an important role to play too. Operators are starting to assess the strain that dif-ferent smartphone and operating systems place on their networks. This will ultimately have an impact on decisions about which devices to sup-port and subsidize.

It is the growth of video usage and applica-tions that is driving data traffic growth. Video can account for more than two-thirds of the total data traffic handled by an operator. As such, operators are starting to develop specific strate-gies for managing and optimizing video traffic. During 2011, operators have started active dis-cussions with players such as Google looking at potential approaches for reducing global and regional traffic flows. Many of these discussions have involved assessing the potential of using CDNs and phasing out peering and transit agree-ments which oblige operators to carry traffic from North America into Europe and Asia for minimal financial recompense.

Flat-rate, “all-you-can-eat” price plans have become synonymous with the Internet and yet in 2011 most mobile operators started to move away from such an approach. Tiered pricing is now commonplace and most operators seem to have been able to move to this new model with little or no backlash from customers.

Tiered pricing should be seen as the first phase of a pricing revolution which will see the emergence of a huge array of different price plans based on location, time of day, type of applica-tion and type of device. The term yield manage-ment which has been embraced, for example, by the airline industry to maximize revenues from each flight, is now being applied to broadband access. As operators explore new pricing para-digms, regulators will carefully monitor whether they have implications in terms of net neutrality, a concept designed to protect freedom and open-ness on the Internet.

Operators will also experiment with different approaches for bundling broadband access across different devices and networks. Rather than attaching price plans to each device, operators now believe that there is merit in offering their

customers single data plans for multiple devices.If operators are to adopt more dynamic pric-

ing approaches they will need support systems that enable such functionality. There is a growing need for charging – rather than billing – capabili-ties that allow operators and apps developers to take innovative, flexible approaches towards the pricing of different services, Legacy billing systems struggle to offer this functionality and further investment is needed in areas such as improved data storage, mining and retrieval systems, analyti-cal software for customer segmentation and more efficient signaling management in the access and core networks before operators can be confident about investing in new charging systems.

Operators have long been concerned about managing the growth of

Internet traffic on their fixed networks.

Tiered pricing should be seen as the first phase of a pricing revolution which will see the emergence of a huge array of different price plans.

Re-engIneeRIng The bRoAdbAnd busIness Model

Potential options for operators to counter Internet companies’ traffic growth and service strategies

1Make Internet companies pay for sending traffic

over their networks

2Compete with the services that Internet companies

offer to their end users

3Develop a platform strategy of their own

4Sell network technologies and solutions to Internet

companies to help reduce the traffic burden

5Deprioritize Internet companies' traffic or

make certain traffic types are available only over Wi-Fi networks

6 Introduce tiered pricing and move to a commercial

model where there is a direct correlation between the bandwidth that the end users consume and what they pay. This would effectively mean increasing the price of broadband access to heavier users

7Stick with their current strategy of optimzing the

networks, increasing capacity in the backhaul (fiber and DSL) and access (LTE) networks and introducing generous tiered pricing plans.

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Wi-Fi

“Wi-Fi is by some distance the most important wireless technology in the world based on volume of data carried. The second wave of Wi-Fi has well and truly

arrived and is forcing an entire ecosystem to rethink strategies for turning end-user demand for Wi-Fi into tangible return.

We continue our ongoing research efforts into Wi-Fi with a clear focus on qualifying its growth worldwide. We will track deployment, uptake and usage of Wi-Fi both inside and outside the home and will pay special attention to the diverse array of emerging business models that are underpinning widespread investment into the technology.”

Yield management

“Operators have found out the hard way that mobile broadband can be unprofitable. In their initial monetization efforts, mobile operators aggressively marketed USB modems

but soon found out that smartphones can make a significantly more profitable business case. Yield management is the exercise of efficiently utilizing mobile broadband spectrum in order to generate maximum revenues and profits.

We will be constantly looking into mobile broadband operator business cases and will also be modeling the most interesting networks with our Network Economics Tool (NET).”

OSS/BSS transformation

“Any attempt to re-engineer the broadband business model presupposes an intelligent, content-agnostic support infrastructure. Existing OSS/BSS

was never designed to deliver such functionality and therefore transformation is vital to meet the challenges created by the provision of next-generation, broadband data services.

We will be studying the development of smarter networks through case studies and analysis, highlighting the most effective ways of monetizing data services by exploiting network and business intelligence.”

Mike Roberts Principal Analyst

Dimitris Mavrakis Principal Analyst

Peter Dykes Senior Analyst

> Webinars offer a popular way to engage with our lead analysts and quickly access the findings of our research streams. In 2012, we will host more than 40 webinar sessions.

> Network Economics Tool (NET) is an easy to use online tool which enables equipment vendors and operators to model the capital and operational cost of deploying and upgrading wireless broadband networks and understand ROI. The tool allows operators to independently develop, test and refine a business case for any target market in real time using a combination of market data, technical parameters and economic inputs.

> Case studies feature a qualitative assessment of strategy, value chain and market positioning in addition to a quantitative evaluation of success, including competitor benchmarking.

2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs

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Managing and monetizing video

“Video is the killer app for connected devices, with consumers increasingly expecting multiscreen, on-demand, high-quality video content. But key questions have

yet to be answered: who will pay for the content and the delivery, will it come from managed or over-the-top providers, and how will vendors throughout the value chain make money?”

Pricing and bundling

“Data pricing has come to occupy center stage in an operator’s agenda. The emerging role data plays in the revenue-generating process has prompted the appearance of new

forms of data plan structures and billing patterns.

We will track the mobile data pricing strategies of mobile operators in 20 markets in five continents. We will then use service profiling and in-depth analysis to identify the most important trends that will shape the data plan paradigm in 2012.”

Impact of different devices and platforms

“So far, user experience and user demand have been the main factors in operators’ choice of smartphone OS platforms. However, over time, the gap in the user experience

offered by various competing platforms will narrow. At the same time, the popularity of smartphones is creating a traffic tsunami which is forcing operators to look more closely at how their networks are used. Spectrum efficiency, including both data and signalling optimization, are increasingly becoming key criteria in prioritizing platforms.

Informa Telecoms & Media is currently conducting an in-depth study into the spectrum efficiency of different platforms. Preliminary results indicate that there are big disparities in the way different OS ecosystems consume network bandwidth. While some OSs are highly optimized to carry messaging or browsing traffic others are more efficient when dealing with video streaming.”

Nick Thomas Principal Analyst

Panos Loukos Senior Analyst

Malik Saadi Principal Analyst

> Our five-year subscriber, device, content & services and network traffic forecasts set the industry standard for their consistency, accuracy and ease of use. They are produced collaboratively via our five-strong forecast team and 60 country and topic-facing analysts. > Our market data offering is the most comprehensive

set of country and operator metrics available including subscriptions, market share and penetration and an advanced set of financial and operational KPIs across mobile, fixed-line and multichannel TV markets.

> Our integrated forecasting approach ensures our robust methodologies and models are informed by deep qualitative understanding.

Re-engIneeRIng The bRoAdbAnd busIness Model

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2012 ReseARch AgendA

Services, ecosystems and connected devices

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In turn, the developers of the platforms that sup-port these services, the device manufacturers and the content owners, have taken the opportunity to extend their influence and presence across these different devices and networks.

Device manufacturers have developed their own service and application strategies; online players have moved into the devices space, investing in either the software (platform) busi-ness or in hardware itself; content owners have adopted multiscreen strategies, often with little or no clarity about the viability of new busi-ness models. And TV companies are developing home gateways as their anchors to connected device superiority.

In this brave new world, the customer is king and traditional content providers, TV companies and device manufacturers are under siege from global players that started life on the Internet and who threaten their very existence.

Creating a strong ecosystem has become an essential ingredient for success in this new

market paradigm. Apple and Google are the undisputed champions of the ecosystem. Apple’s success in its hardware business – and in particular the iPhone – owes much to its iTunes and applications store services built on Apple’s own operating system. Google’s strat-egy for taking its services (and revenues) beyond the PC is founded on the Android operating system, which is now the market-leading plat-form for smartphones, and on YouTube. There is continual speculation over whether these two players will seek to plug the gaps in their port-folios. Should Apple start manufacturing its own televisions? Google indirectly entered the hardware business in August this year with its acquisition of Motorola’s handsets and set-top-box activities, but what it will do with its new assets remains to be seen.

No other companies come close to matching Apple or Google’s dominance of ecosystems. Nokia and Microsoft, arguably the two biggest victims of the success of Apple and Google, are now joining forces in the development of mobile software and services. A whole host of other companies from the traditional telecoms, TV, consumer electronics and mobile phone busi-nesses are trying to figure out their current and future roles in different ecosystems. The “too-big-to-fail?” question is one that constantly nags at these, and other, contenders. No company should be tempted to create its own ecosystem if its core product, its cash-cow, is not fit for purpose.

The success of Apple and Google is changing the outlook and business models for the sectors in which they are active. Google dominates the online advertising business. Will it gain a simi-lar stranglehold on mobile and TV advertising? Apple’s dominance today is confined to the high-end smartphone business but what if it launches

a lower-end device for prepaid markets?Technology companies and service provid-

ers are exploring options beyond platforms for differentiating their products and services. With the dominance of the Android and iOS on smart devices, differentiation in the user interface may be a better alternative than an in-house OS. This is costly and there is no guarantee of being able to create a product that can compete with the market leaders. But the key to developing a popular and successful UI – particularly across platforms and devices – is not always obvious.

Aggregators are another group of companies facing an uncertain future as online platform and service providers become aggregators in their own right.

Ecosystems hold most relevance today to developed markets characterized by multi-de-vice ownership and high smartphone penetra-tion. But smartphone prices are falling rapidly and, within the next two years, will be within reach of the mass market in the developing world. Smartphones will become the dominant (in many cases, only) provider of Internet con-nectivity to hundreds of millions of people. In doing so, they will open up huge opportunities for local and global content creators and appli-cations developers.

Consumers have developed a taste for accessing their favorite services

and applications on different small and large-screen devices.

Smartphones will become the dominant provider of Internet connectivity to hundreds of millions of people

seRvIces, ecosyTeMs And connecTed devIces

Impact of common/open standards on the connected-device landscape

0-12 months ....... 6%

1-2 years ............. 38%

3-5 years ............. 41%

6-10 years ............ 6%

10+ years ............. 3%

Never happen .... 7%

Exact question wording was: When will it become common practice for content providers to offer content directly to consumers via connected devices and bypass traditional service providers and operators?

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Future ecosystems

“Who will win in a multiscreen world?” Informa is often asked. The answer is not those that create the best devices or services, but those that build the platforms and

ecosystems that sit on these devices, across which these services can be offered.

Yet much about what makes a great ecosystem is still assumed. What are the key characteristics of an ecosystem, and what is the best practice for developing one? Informa will draw on its deep pool of research across mobile, broadband and TV to find out.”

Future advertising

“The mobile advertising ecosystem is beginning to fall into place. The development of solutions for personalization, location, targeting,

analytics and optimization means that the potential to deliver contextual adverts has greatly improved.

We will examine the growing importance of multi-screen user engagement and interactive mobile advertising through case studies, analysis and producing updated market forecasts on various forms of mobile advertising.”

The evolving aggregator landscape

“Aggregators have always played key roles in telecoms and media, acting as trusted brands for consumers and helping them to navigate through seemingly endless

content and service choices.

But the rise of IP delivery and connected devices has brought a plethora of new players to the fore, all of which want to be the consumer’s navigation tool of choice through this brave new world.

Informa will assess what traditional aggregators must do to maintain their relevance in a changing world, and analyze the new runners and riders vying to replace them.”

Guillermo Escofet Senior Analyst

Shailendra Pandey Senior Analyst

Giles Cottle Principal Analyst

> Analyst comment provides a quick, strategic analyst view on trends and developments enabling you to understand and respond to market events.

> Our forecasts are more robust because they are produced by a dedicated forecasting team in collaboration with our topic and region experts. This integrated approach ensures our methodologies and models are supported by deep qualitative understanding.

> Case studies deliver detailed, timely insight into the technology and service deployments of operators and service providers. Our network of in-market analysts ensures that our analysis is supported by local insight.

2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs

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User interface

“A device or service will be hamstrung if it lacks a good user interface (UI), no matter how brilliant the engineering behind it or how appealing the content

is. The user interface is becoming synonymous with a user’s experience, and can make or break a device or service.

Informa will be examining what makes a good UI for Internet services, device operating systems and applications, across all screens. Best-of-breed examples will be highlighted, and a cross-sector analysis will determine if any one screen is lagging behind its peers.”

The sub $50 smartphone

“The explosion of smartphones and the drive by mobile operators to get them into people’s hands is creating value in the market. However, the increasing clamor

for smartphones will drive them into lower price tiers, changing market dynamics. In most emerging markets, PC/laptop prices are a barrier to Internet uptake and low-cost smartphones will increasingly play a significant role in such markets.

We will produce case studies demonstrating what impact low-cost smartphones will have on mobile data uptake and also Internet penetration in key markets. We will also analyze each operating system detailing how it can reach the $50 threshold we expect from the handset vendors and mobile operators.”

App stores

“The first phenomenally successful mobile content ecosystem predates Apple’s App Store by many years and was built by a mobile operator,

Japan’s NTT DoCoMo. The business model pursued by DoCoMo with i-mode was not that different to the one later adopted by Apple with the App Store: a marketplace where all kinds of third parties could set up shop and sell their wares directly to end users, giving a share of their takings to the 'store' owner.

This coming year, we will be looking at the ecosystem strategies of the various players out there and at how operators’ content and application strategies are evolving in a desperate bid to retain relevance.”

Andrew Ladbrook Senior Analyst

David McQueen Principal Analyst

Jamie Moss Senior Analyst

> We organise 100+ market leading annual events including LTE World Series, Com World Series and IPTV World Forum. Our core services include exclusive access to the PowerPoint presentations delivered at all of these events. These papers provide unique insight into the strategies, positioning and plans of your competitors and customers.

> In 2012, our content and applications team will cover topics including mobile content and service value chains and ecosystems, video monetisation and the impact of HTML 5. Our analysis is designed to support your decision-making and offer points for action.

> Our five-year smartphone forecasts include smartphone sales volume, distribution penetration by region and operating system. Our robust methodologies and models are informed by deep qualitative understanding.

seRvIces, ecosyTeMs And connecTed devIces

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2012 ReseARch AgendA

Seizing new revenue opportunities

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Consumers and businesses may be reaping the benefits of high-speed, widely-available broad-band connectivity and new devices, but, for telecoms operators, saturated markets, stiff com-petition and tough regulation are the day-to-day realities that shape their business environment.

Innovation is proving elusive. Operators and TV companies are now competing in an over-the-top world where smaller, nimbler, risk-taking companies are prepared to offer services to the end user for free in the hope that they will either uncover a business model or a buyer before their funding runs out.

The biggest single growth opportunity for operators today is selling data plans with smart-phones. Postpaid markets already have high smartphone penetration and the next wave will see the adoption of $100-$200 smartphones in both developed and emerging markets. Mobile broadband (dongles) is still a growing market but a less attractive option than smartphones because of the heavy demands on the network placed by many users.

The rollout of LTE is allowing operators to offer higher speeds and a better quality of service. Many are also bundling in content such as music or video with high-end price plans. Operators are eyeing connected devices as a potential new rev-enue stream and the embedding of LTE in tablet computers should help to increase the share of devices that are sold with cellular price plans.

Rural broadband connectivity has become an important policy initiative for many governments and a new revenue stream for network operators rolling out LTE in lower-frequency bands.

Beyond broadband connectivity, many of the new revenue opportunities today sit in the busi-ness and enterprise sector. Enterprise mobility is starting to gain momentum, driven by mobile operators facing saturation in the consumer market. But Informa Telecoms & Media believes that a bigger opportunity lies in using new tech-nologies and platforms, such as cloud computing, Ethernet and M2M, to serve specific needs within different small, medium and large enterprises.

In the past, operators have tended to segment business users by number of employees. But a new approach is emerging that allows product and service differentiation based on industry type. Operators are now (slowly) starting to develop vertical solutions using a combination of fixed and mobile technologies and platforms that go beyond the provision of traditional telephony

and data. In sectors such as healthcare, utilities and automotive, operators are looking to provide solutions and services that help to increase effi-ciencies and drive new revenue growth.

Emerging markets present clearer opportuni-ties than developed ones in both consumer and business markets (although low ARPU levels and the high cost and low availability of broad-band access means that new pricing and business models will need to be adopted).

In the consumer market, the falling cost of smartphones and the rollout of 3G networks means that the Internet will reach hundreds of millions of people for the first time over the next two to three years. The rollout of mobile and fixed broadband services will also create tremen-dous new opportunities in the business market and in the public sector where the mobile phone can provide a low-cost platform for the dissemi-nation of a range of services including education, healthcare and payments.

Robust year-on-year revenue growth has become a fading memory for an

industry which took double-digit growth for granted during the 1990s and the first half of the last decade.

The biggest single growth opportunity for operators today is selling data plans with smartphones.

… a bigger opportunity lies in using new technologies and platforms such as cloud computing, Ethernet and M2M to serve specific needs within different small, medium and large enterprises.

seIZIng neW Revenue oppoRTunITIes

Connected Verticals

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Cloud

“Cloud computing offers unprecedented potential to touch ICT wallet share once unobtainable for telecom firms. That’s because the cloud’s commercial model of

renting versus buying computing power, storage, software development tools and applications disrupts the traditional ICT supply chain.”

Vertical markets

“Telecom technology is enabling radical business transformation in the world’s largest industries. By connecting and managing formerly

isolated endpoints, technology suppliers are optimizing operations and creating whole new business models in these sectors. “

Putting the “B” in the middle of B2C

“Many of the windows of opportunity for operators to develop consumer value-added services are closing as OTT players with global reach and free-to-the-end-user business

models exploit the potential of smartphones and the mobile Internet.

There has long been talk of the so-called two-sided business model and operators are slowly but surely starting to realize the opportunity to provide mobile channel and network capabilities to commercial and public organizations. Examples include pharmaceutical companies that are looking to use the mobile channel to help them transition into health providers and applications developers that are talking to operators about using their billing capabilities to monetize their services.

Informa Telecoms & Media will produce case studies of successful (and unsuccessful) B2B2C business models and identify those sectors which provide most short- and medium-term potential.”

Camille Mendler Principal Analyst

Sheridan Nye Senior Analyst

Mark Newman Chief Research Officer

> Telecom Cloud Monitor is an analytical tool tracking the cloud-related activities of more than 90 operators and 150 vendors worldwide. The service is available as part of our Enterprise Verticals research offering which is supplemented with best-practice case studies and business model analysis.

> Our five-year subscriber, device, content & services and network traffic forecasts set the industry standard for their consistency, accuracy and ease of use. They are produced collaboratively via our five-strong forecast team and 65 country and topic-facing analysts.

> In 2012, our operator strategy team will cover topics including the economics of carrier Wi-Fi, best practice in customer experience management and partnership strategies with OTT providers. Our analysis is designed to support your decision making and offer points for action.

2012 ReseARch AgendA / ReseARch hIghlIghTs

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Connected consumer devices

“As consumer adoption of connected devices such as smartphones, tablets and connected TVs increases, so their expectation grows for services that work seamlessly across

multiple screens and platforms. The challenge for operators, device manufacturers, and content and service providers, is to work together to meet this growing need while creating new revenue streams. We will take a holistic approach towards our coverage of connected devices, assessing business models, the cost of embedding radio technologies and forecasting the growth of different sets of connected devices.”

M2M

“Cellular M2M is a brand new subscriptions market. It is not an attempt to extract additional revenue from existing subscriptions, nor is it a loss-leader or value-

add simply to reduce churn. M2M allows carriers to focus on their core competency – operating efficient communications networks – and to monetize the transport of data on terms that are profitable – for all parties. In the enterprise market, mission-critical data information has a value of its own, beyond its mere footprint in megabytes. Informa Telecoms & Media regards M2M as a must-watch market. We are monitoring developments in carrier strategy, logging enterprise service deployments, as well as tracking all available operational benchmarks in order to best assess the market’s growth potential. With M2M, ARPUs may well be lower but we expect them to be more stable and the connections more numerous, due to the cumulative and long-term nature of M2M contracts.”

Utility VAS

“Mobile content and applications really do have the power to be transformational in developing markets. Not only can utility services have an impact on the everyday

lives of end users, but they can also help operators to diversify revenue streams and allow a deeper and more relevant engagement with their customers at scale.

Through case studies, we will assess how operators can take advantage of mobile moving beyond voice and text, and as a result grow revenues, build brand and create loyalty from providing utility services either directly to consumers or via partnerships with enterprises in the healthcare, financial services or public sector spaces.”

Nick Thomas Principal Analyst

Jamie Moss Senior Analyst

Nicholas Jotischky Principal Analyst

> Our regular surveys are carefully designed to gather senior-level industry perceptions across key topics. Respondents are drawn from our broad community of C-level research and event contacts.

> Executive Briefings provide a top-level strategic view of a theme, technology or market trend. Designed to quickly inform your planning, they are delivered in PowerPoint to make sharing easier.

> Our bespoke strategy sessions are designed to provide one-to-one tailored business insight on the topics directly impacting your business. These face-to-face (or webinar) sessions are designed in collaboration with our clients and provide a unique opportunity to engage with our senior analysts and take away decision-support findings.

seIZIng neW Revenue oppoRTunITIes

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Our research is regularly quoted by mainstream and business media worldwide:

Media coverage

Facebook launches Messenger app– Tim Bradshaw August 10, 2011

Facebook’s app “has the potential to achieve a greater reach than BBM, WhatsApp, KakaoTalk or the as-yet-unlaunched iMessage,” said Pamela Clark-Dickson, messaging analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, because it works across platforms and is tied to Facebook’s 750m-member social network.

“That would have an impact on mobile operators insofar as people might use these apps instead of SMS,” Ms Clark-Dickson said. “If operators are already offering large bundles of SMS it may not be so much of an issue.”

Spotify launches US streaming music service July 14, 2011

Cracking the United States might make the numbers more attractive, according to Giles Cottle, senior analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.

“They will only get their model to work if they successfully launch in the US.

“It works if you get a large number of plays and you can get a lot of people to sign up to the premium service,” he said.

Silicon Savanna: Mobile Phones Transform Africa– Alex Perry June 30, 2011

From almost none a decade ago, there are now half a billion mobile phones in Africa, roughly one for every two Africans, according to industry analyst Informa Telecoms & Media.

Get on my cloud, says Apple chief, for everything, anytime, anywhere– Alexandra Frean June 7, 2011

But Giles Cottle, Senior Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, said that Apple’s genius had been to bring together a host of syncing services in an easy-to-use-way and intuitive manner. “It was always going to take someone like Apple to really educate mass-market consumers about the value of Cloud-based services. We are it appears, on the cusp of that moment,” he said.

RIM Launches New Touchscreen Smartphones August 3, 2011

RIM launched a keyboard-less touchscreen phone in 2008, more than a year after the first iPhone, but the “Storm’s” quirky design and poor software made it a flop.“The 'all-touchscreen' Torch has been a while coming as a natural successor to the disappointing Storm, particularly when the smartphone market has gone touchscreen mad over the past 18 months,” said Malik Saadi, an analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.

New BlackBerrys Are Thinner, Faster But Not Revolutionary– Elizabeth Woyke August 3, 2011

Analysts expressed mixed reactions to RIM’s announcement. Malik Saadi, a principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, noted that he expects the new phones to “help to boost [RIM] sales in [the second half of the year] as they all come with additional features, cool apps and are targeting different segments of the market and various wireless networks.” But he also characterized the new devices as arriving later than expected and lagging comparable handsets from RIM’s competitors. The “all-touchscreen” Torch, for example, is less impressive when one considers that the smartphone market has been “touchscreen mad” for the past 18 months, Saadi wrote.

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Google tablets seen overtaking iPad in 5 years– Tarmo Virki July 27, 2011

Informa Telecoms & Media said it expects Apple’s current 75 percent market share to fall to 39 percent in 2015, when Android market share will grow to 38 percent.

“From 2013, as cheaper and more advanced Android tablets enter the market, we forecast that sales will pick up considerably, eventually surpassing iPad sales in 2016,” analyst David McQueen said in a statement.

Fortunes of 3DTV mixed in U.K.– Steve Clark June 20, 2011

3D TV will struggle to take off in the U.K. and fail to become a mainstream viewing experience, a report from Informa Telecoms and Media predicts.

The research firm forecasts that while the number of U.K. households with 3D TV will climb to almost 11 million by 2016 (around a third of the total number of homes), only 42% are expected to watch 3D fare regularly. Last year, 125,000 households bought a 3D-ready TV and almost 90% of them were active viewers of 3D shows, added Informa.

3D TV 'set to struggle in UK'– Mark Sweney June 20, 2011

While the number of households in the UK with 3D TV sets will climb to almost 11 million by 2016 – about a third of the total number of homes – only 42% are expected to actually use them to watch any 3D programming on a regular basis.

“3D TV has the backing of the major UK broadcasters like Sky and Virgin, and most recently the BBC,” said Adam Thomas, senior analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. “However, despite this, public reaction has been mixed, due to both a lack of content and a simple failure of the public to engage.”

LTE Revolution Faces Spectrum Fragmentation August 2, 2011

The world is going LTE, but the availability of spectrum in different countries and regions is fragmenting the 4G wireless standard internationally, according to research from Informa Telecoms & Media. The company found distinct regional bands are emerging for LTE, which is posing a challenge for manufacturers looking at which bands to support in their devices

Etisalat Second-Quarter Profit Drops 15%, Misses Estimates– Tamara Walid July 18, 2011

“The decline in profits at Etisalat most likely reflects the mounting competitive pressures that the company is facing in its home market,” said Matthew Reed, a Dubai-based analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. Political unrest in Egypt may also affect operations at Etisalat Misr, the company’s biggest consolidated unit outside the Emirates by revenue, Reed said.

Du grabs 43.6% of market share August 4, 2011

“There was little change in Du’s quarter-on-quarter net profit but that is partly to do with seasonal factors. The first quarter tends to be much busier in the UAE with more visitors leading to greater roaming revenues,” said Matthew Reed, senior analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. According to Reed, Du faces increased competition from Etisalat in the next quarter as the UAE’s largest telco has managed to stem subscription losses.

“Overall, Du’s results are pretty positive. However, it will be interesting to see how Du responds to last week’s announcement from Etisalat that it has scrapped the annual renewal fee for prepaid subscribers,” Reed said.

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our Analysts

Andrew Ladbrook Senior [email protected]@andrewladbrook

Andy Castonguay Principal [email protected]

Anubhuti Belgaonkar Senior [email protected]

Nick Thomas Principal [email protected]@analystnick

Gareth Sims Head of [email protected]@gsims75

Sheridan Nye Senior [email protected]

Julian Bright Senior [email protected]@julianbright

Adam Thomas Media Research [email protected]

Nicholas Jotischky Principal [email protected]

Francesco Radicati Research [email protected]

Shannon Keefe Senior [email protected]

Kristin Paulin Research [email protected]

Lang Xiao Research [email protected]

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Mike Roberts Principal [email protected]@mikeproberts

Giles Cottle Principal [email protected]@gilescottle

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Matthew Reed Senior [email protected]@mattreed1

Dario Talmesio Principal [email protected]@dariotalmesio

Paul Merry Senior [email protected]

Inna Natalchenko Research [email protected]

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