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Master Plan
Workshop #1
Market AnalysisJuly 21, 2016
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• Market Area +400,000 residents; 47,230 new residents since 2000
• Young adults, including families, are most common age grouping
• However, net 15-year growth almost entirely concentrated in Baby Boomer generation
• New Baby Boomer residents have influenced an increase in median age to 33.2 years
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
Population by Age Cohort, Market Area, 2000-2016
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Pop
ulat
ion
2000
2016
• Households increased 16.8% since 2000; growth split between low and high incomes
• Median household income slightly declined since 2000
• Concentrated growth in older residents has impacted household characteristics:• Single-occupancy households
are increasing• Household size is declining• Income-levels are declining
HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
Households by Income Cohort, Market Area, 2000-2016
TAPESTRY SEGMENTATION
Family Foundations (17.0%)• Mix of married couples, single parents, grandparents,
and children, young and adult• Over one-third receive Social Security benefits• Labor force participation lower as workers retire• Drive demand for single-family housing (67.0% own)
Metro Fusion (12.9%)• Young, diverse population segment• Single-parent and single-person households make up
more than half of total• Highly mobile, driving demand for rental properties• Median incomes lower than typical US levels
American Dreamers (9.7%)• Younger married-couple families with children• Multigenerational homes are common• Diversity is high• Attracted to single-family housing, typically outside
urban centers – seeking affordability
HOW DO WE COMPARE?
MARKET AREA ATLANTA MSA
Median Age
Household Size
Median Income
Secondary Degrees
33.2 35.8
2.68 2.70
$38,305 $57,792
30.1% 43.4%
MARKET AREA EMPLOYMENT
• Market Area had nearly 207,000 jobs in 2014 (8.9% regional total)
• Transportation & Warehousing jobs more than doubled since 2004; made up nearly 90% increase
• Nearly half of the people working in the Market Area earn more than $40,000 per year
• Over 100,000 Market Area residents commute for
employment
• Commuters primarily travel to the east; driven by jobs
in urban Atlanta, Forest Park, Morrow
• However, 38,000+ people live and work in Study Area;
ratio of 1.40 jobs to households
COMMUTING PATTERNS
Market Area
HOUSING TRENDS
• Nationally, homeownership has fallen dramatically in 10 years
• Housing in the Market Area is:
• Comparatively older (median year built 1979 v. 1990 for region)
• Over 55% is single-family detached; 39% is multi-family
• Only 38.9% is owner-occupied; higher renter share indicates many rentals are in single-family houses
• Residential building permits still remain less than 50% pre-Recession levels
Residential Building Permits, Atlanta MSA, 2004-2015
RETAIL TRENDS
• Positive net absorption in last three years has pushed Atlanta into a ‘Rising Market’ position – poised for growth as housing development continues
• Market vacancy at 9.8%; declined 4.1% since the Recession
• Grocers, discount chains, and restaurants were the most active retailers in the Atlanta market in 2015
20132016
OFFICE TRENDS
• Modest net absorption led to little change in office vacancy in early 2016
• Performance is not wide-spread; Airport area has one of the highest vacancy rates at 23.5%
• Rental rates have trended upward with Class A space demonstrating the strongest gains
INDUSTRIAL/LOGISTICS TRENDS
• South Atlanta second largest inventory at +160 million square feet
• Leading the market in industrial absorption (56%); continued positive absorption in this area expected
• Vacancy has been trending downward; lease rates in the Airport/South Submarket have increased substantially in the last two years ($3.36 on average)
141,000
143,000
145,000
192,000
193,000
212,000
342,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
Food & Beverage
Energy
Professional & Business Services
Pet Food & Supplies
Consumer Nondurables
Paper & Packaging
Construciton
Logistics & Distribution
Retailer (traditional)
Top Tenant Industries, Atlanta MSA, 1Q2016
MARKET CONSIDERATIONS
1
Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term
• Priority projects should support near-term demand for industrial and residential product
• New population and jobs will ultimately support additional retail demand in the Study Area
• Protect key areas offering accessibility, visibility, and proximity to amenities for mixed-use development, including office space
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