Client Update September 2013 Andrew Tasker – GFM Representative WA

Client UpdateSeptember 2013

Andrew Tasker – GFM Representative WA

2 Much Easier to Say Rabobank

3

What's Happening at Home

Source: Bloomberg

Things are mixed

Retail sales to June 2013

CPI and Wage Growth

RBA dropped rates but now sitting on the side lines to see what happens next

4 Source: ABS, Rabobank

What's Happening at Home

5 Source: ABS, Stats NZ, Rabobank

What's Happening at Home

6

What's Happening at Home

Source: ABS, Rabobank

7 Source: Bloomberg

Interest Rates – Long TermRBA cash rate at 2.50%Previous lows: 3.00% in 08/09 post GFC, equal to 1961 low

•_____ RBA Cash Rate ---- BBSW 90 Day

8

Interest Rates – Short Term

Source: Bloomberg•_____ RBA Cash Rate ---- BBSW 90 Day

Bank rates about 0.50% higher then GFC low

9

Influences from US

Talk of “Tapering” in the US has lead to rise in long term rates

This has carried over to AUD yield curveSame in Europe

10

Interest Rates: USD, EUR & AUD Swaps

Source: Bloomberg

*=5 Aug 2013 =6 Sep 2013

11

AUD Still Weakening ?

Source: Bloomberg

12 Source Bloomberg

Changing Fundamentals

13 Source Bloomberg

Changing Fundamentals

14

US Drought – Back in Feb 2013

15

US Drought – This Week

16

But its not all about the US.....

17

But its not all about the US.....

18 Source USDA, Rabobank

19 Source USDA, Rabobank

20 Source: AgResource Co

US Corn Crop Conditions

21

US Soybean Crop Conditions

22

US Soybean Way over Corn

23

US Dec13 Wheat V Dec13 Corn

24

Long Term US Wheat V Corn

25

2013 Wheat Swap and Cash Price

Source: Grainmarket

26

2014 Wheat Swap and Cash Price

Source: Grainmarket

27

2013 Canola Swap and Cash

Source: Grainmarket

28

2014 Canola Swap

Source: Grainmarket

29

Rabobank International

Andrew Tasker

GFM Representative - WA

Global Financial Markets

t. 08 9318 8722

m. 0408 848 123

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