Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting - Introduction - Jesús Polo (CIEMAT)

Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013 Ciemat

Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting

INTRODUCTION

J. Polo

Renewable Energy Divission (Energy Department)

Ciemat


Welcome to Ciemat


Welcome from SHC ExCo member

• IEA-SHC (www.iea-shc.org) Established in 1977

• Mission: To continue to be the preeminent international collaborative programme in solar heating and cooling technologies and designs.

• 20 Country members and 2 organisation members (European Comission and ECREE)



Solar Heat Worlwide Annual Report 38 completed Tasks covering:

Solar Energy in Buildings

Solar Resource Assesment Materials R&D Solar Cooling Large systems Solar heat for industrial processes

Annual SHC Conference and support for ISES

Activities:



Task 51 - Solar Energy in Urban Planning

Task 50 - Advanced Lighting Solutions for Retrofitting Buildings

Task 49 - Solar Heat Integration in Industrial Processes

Task 48 - Quality Assurance and Support Measures for Solar Cooling Systems

Task 47 - Solar Renovation of Non-Residential Buildings

Task 46 - Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting

Task 45 - Large Scale Solar Heating and Cooling Systems

Task 44 - Solar and Heat Pump Systems

Task 43 - Solar Rating & Certification Procedures

Task 42 - Compact Thermal Energy Storage

Task 40 - Net Zero Energy Solar Buildings

Task 39 - Polymeric Materials for Solar Thermal Applications

Ongoing Tasks:



Task 51 - Solar Energy in Urban Planning

Task 50 - Advanced Lighting Solutions for Retrofitting Buildings

Task 49 - Solar Heat Integration in Industrial Processes

Task 48 - Quality Assurance and Support Measures for Solar Cooling Systems

Task 47 - Solar Renovation of Non-Residential Buildings

Task 46 - Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting

Task 45 - Large Scale Solar Heating and Cooling Systems

Task 44 - Solar and Heat Pump Systems

Task 43 - Solar Rating & Certification Procedures

Task 42 - Compact Thermal Energy Storage

Task 40 - Net Zero Energy Solar Buildings

Task 39 - Polymeric Materials for Solar Thermal Applications

Ongoing Tasks:


10:00-11:00 FORECASTING NEEDS FOR SOLAR ENERGY, Eduardo Iglesias (Protermosolar)

11:00-11:30 MANAGMENT, Maria Sanchez (REE) 12:00-13:30 SELL SOLAR ELECTRICITY, J.I. Burgaleta (Torresol Energy), Miguel Martínez (WenerSolar) 13:30-14:00 BUY SOLAR ELECTRICITY, Jorge González (Gesternova)

14:00-15:00 LUNCH

15:00-16:00 COMERCIAL SERVICES, L. Martín Pomares (IrSOLaV), J. Liria (S2m Solutions)

16:00-17:00 FUTURE GUIDELINES, D. Pozo (U. Jaen), Isabel Martínez (AEMet)

Agenda


Ciemat activities in Solar Energy

Liquid biofuels

Solid biofuels

BIOMASS

Isolated wind energy

systems

Wind energy

resource

WIND

ENERGY

PV materials and

devices

PV components and

systems

PHOTOVOLTAICS

Concentrating solar

systems

Solar chemistry

Solar resource

PLATAFORMA SOLAR

DE ALMERIA

Integration of solar energy

in buildings

Solar components for

for buildings

SOLAR ENERGY

IN BUILDINGS

RENEWABLE

ENERGY

DIVISION

Solar Resources

gTIGER

Structure of Renewable Energy Division


Ciemat activities in Solar Energy

Solar Platform of Almería

Desalination

plant

Parabolic trough: DISS, HTF,

Eurotrough and DCS-SSPS

Solar towers: CESA-I y CRS-SSPS

Solardetox and

Solfin

LECE Dish/Stirling systems

Solar

furnace


Future of Solar Energy


Perspectives of growth in global markets 2012-2020

Solar PV at a Glimpse

Source: Griffins S. Strategic considerations for deployment of solar photovoltaics in the Middle East and North Africa Energy Strategy Reviews. Elsevier


Solar Thermal Power at a Glimpse

Perspectives of growth to 2020

Source: ESTELA and Protermosolar


Classification of solar radiation forecasting methods

Overview of forecasting techniques



Very short-term Now-casting with Total sky Imager

TSI

Cloud cover

Solar Radiation • Very short-time horizon (10 min. – 3 hour)

• High spatial resolution but limited coverage (few km)



Now-casting with satellite images

• short-time horizon (15 min. – 6 hour)

• Spatial resolution over 1km

Motion vector field

Cloud index to Solar Radiation

Forecast cloud index


NWP model output

Regional mesoscale model

Statistical post-processing

Dynamic Downscaling


Forecasting with NWP models

• time horizon (12 hours – 48 hours)

• Limited spatial resolution


Activities in R&D

Task 36 of Solar Heating and Cooling (IEA) . Framework for collaboration

Task 36: Solar Resource Knowledge Management was the umbrela for experts collaboration on important topics concerning Solar Resource Assessment during 2005-2010

Many institutions participated actively: NREL, NASA, SUNY, DLR, Univ. Oldenburg, JRC-Ispra, Ciemat, Mines ParisTech ARMINES, Blue Sky, Univ. Of Geneva, Geomodel, IrSOLaV, Univ. De Jaen, UPNA, Environment Canada, ENTPE, Canmet ENERGY, Meteotest, CENER…

Subtask C, entitled, “Improved techniques for Solar Resource Characterisation and Forecasting”.

http://task36.iea-shc.org/


Activities in R&D

Task 36 of Solar Heating and Cooling (IEA). Achievements on Forecasting

Team Approach NWP model with spatial and

temporal resolution

University of Oldenburg, German

Statistical post-processing in combination with a clear sky model

ECMWF - 0.25°x 0.25° - 3 hours

Blue Sky,

Austria,

a)“human” cloud cover

forecast (by meteorologists) b) BLUE FORECAST: statistic forecast tool

for b) GFS

- 1° x 1° and 0,5°x 0.5° - 3 hours and 6 hours

Meteo-

control,

German

MOS (model Output

Statistics) by Meteomedia

GmbH

ECMWF

- 0.25°x 0.25°

- 3 hours Ciemat, Spain

Bias correction AEMet-HIRLAM - 0.2°x 0.2° - 1 hour

CENER,

Spain

Post-processing based on

learning machine models

Skiron/GFS

- 0.1°x 0.1°

- 1 hour Meteotest, Switzerland

Direct model output of global irradiance, averaging of 10x10 pixels

WRF/GFS - 5km x 5km - 1 hour

University of

Jaen, Spain

Direct model output of

global irradiance

WRF/GFS

- 3km x 3km

- 1 hour

Benchmarking of Solar Radiation forecasting methods


Activities in R&D

Task 46 of Solar Heating and Cooling (IEA). 2011-2015

Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting (Task 46)

Subtask C: Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Activity C.1: Short-term forecasting (up to 7 days ahead)

DNI forecasting is including, Total sky cameras, motion vectors from satellite images, NWP models, statistical models integrating different data sources.

Activity C.2: Integration of solar forecasts into operations

Strong link with industry, workshops, applications of solar forecasting

http://task46.iea-shc.org/


Activities in R&D

DNICast 7th Framework Programme

The main objective of the proposal is to establish a portfolio of innovative methods for the forecast of DNI, valid for a portion of the space defined by “time horizon – space resolution – space coverage”

Total sky camera

Satellite based methods

NWP models Ground measurements

Better nowcasting of DNI

Improved Aerosol Monitoring

Partners: OME, DLR, CENER, Meteotest, UniPatras, Ciemat, Armines, RIUUK,SMHI, TROPOS, MeteoSwis,Cyl


Activities in R&D

DNICast 7th Framework Programme. Some innovative features

Improving satellite based DNI nowcastings by enhancing the connection between the satellite data and the NWP models which are used for the nowcasting of the clouds

Existing methods for calculation of DNI from information about clouds, aerosols, precipitable water etc will be evaluated and adapted to use NWP data as input

The spatiotemporal DNI variability will be estimated with a combined statistical analysis of satellite-based ground surface radiation estimates and ground measurements with a high spatial-resolution grid such as available at PSA

Plant modelling and nowcasting: coupling of the DNI nowcasting systems with CSP and CPV plant output models


Activities in R&D

COST Wire, “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies

http://www.wire1002.ch

Three main working groups:1. Power forecast, 2. Measurements and Observations, 3. Power Plants and Electrical Grid Management

Benchmarking exercise on short-term forecasting models for renewable generation

Workshops and summer schools


Thanks for the attention !

Technology

Workshop on Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting - Introduction - Jesús Polo (CIEMAT)