Roadmap to Future Roads

1© Ricardo Inc. 2015 May 2015Unclassified - Public Domain

© Ricardo Inc. 2015

Roadmap to autonomous drivingAV Levels and Their Impact on Powertrains of the Future

Ali MalekiVice President, Business DevelopmentConnected and Autonomous Vehicles

May 21, 2015

http://www.ricardo.com/


Agenda

• Integration into more powerful controllers• New software-based model

• Today’s Levels of Automation• SAE / NHTSA Levels Definitions• Drive Cycle Complexity • Requisite Technologies

• Roadmap Timeline Models• Conventional Vehicles Timeline• Shared Mobility, (Personal-Public

Transportation) Timeline• Combined effects

Autonomous Driving

Overview

Autonomous Driving

Roadmaps

Powertrain Controls and

Electronics

for Autonomous Vehicle

Roadmaps


100 YEARS OF INNOVATION

Ricardo is a global leader in consulting, design and engineering for a broad range of products in multiple industries. Ricardo is one of the world's most highly respected and experienced engine, transmission, driveline, hybrid-electric, connected and autonomous systems engineering teams.


Background Terminology*

• Dynamic driving task: – Operational: Steering, braking,

accelerating, monitoring the vehicle and roadway

– Tactical: Responding to events, determining when to change lanes, turn, use signals, etc.

• Driving mode: driving scenario characterizing the dynamic driving task requirements; e.g., expressway merging, high speed cruising, low speed traffic jam, closed-campus operations, etc.

• Request to intervene: notification by the automated driving system to a human driver that s/he should promptly begin or resume performance of the dynamic driving task

* SAE J3016


• Adaptive Cruise Control

• Collision Warning System

• Lane Departure Warning

• Lane Keeping Assist• Blind Spot Monitor

• Park Assist• Navigation Systems• Traffic Sign

Recognition• Adaptive High Beams• Hill climb assist

Current Vehicle ‘Smart’ Systems

Today’s levels of Automation

• Automatic Transmission• Cruise Control• Passive Safety Systems• ABS + Stability Systems• Electric Power Steering• Electronic Throttle Control• Electronic Engine Controls

Manual Driving Assisted


NHSTA Driving Automation Definitions

• The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls – brake, steering, throttle, and motive power – at all times

• One or more specific control functions; e.g. electronic stability control or pre-charged brakes

• Two or more functions designed to work in unison; e.g. Adaptive Cruise Control in combination with Lane Centering

• Driver able to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions, where changes in those conditions require transition back to driver control

No-Automation (Level 0)

Function-specific Automation

(Level 1)

Combined Function Automation

(Level 2):

• All driving functions performed by system. The driver only provides destination or navigation input

Limited Self-Driving Automation

(Level 3)

Full Self-Driving Automation

(Level 4)


SAE J3016 (Jan 2014) Driving Automation Definitions

Human driver

monitors the driving

environment

Automated driving system

(“system”) monitors the

driving environment


NHTSA and SAE Levels of Automation

SAE

Level 5

Level 1 Level 3 Level 4Level 2

ACC

ESC

ACCLKA

Self Location

IMG AI

DLNN

V2X

NHTSA Level 4

Function-specific Automation

Combined Function Automation

Limited Self-Driving Automation

Driver Assistance Partial Automation Conditional Automation

Full Self-Driving Automation Full Automation

High Automation


Autonomous Driving Algorithms

95% of driving tasks may be codified w/ conventional algorithms (filter, control loops, DSP techniques)

based on standard programming languages…

…the 5% exceptions need heuristic algorithms


Dynamic Driving Complexity and Mode

Semi-Automated Fully-AutomatedHighly Automated

ACC / LKA

ETC, EBS, EPS

ADAS

Traffic Jam Assist

Lane change

Backup aide

Intersection Assist

Pedestrian, side object

Traffic sign detection

V2X

Highs-peed Freeway UrbanLow-speed Freeway

2010 20252015 2020

Dynamic Driving Complexity and ModeLow High

L4L2 L3

Codified/Scripted Deep Learning Machines, AI


Content

Long Range Forward Looking Radar (LFLR)

ECU

LRFLR

• Range: 150-250 Meters

• Frequency 76-77 GHz


Content

Short Range Side Radar

ECU

SR

SR

SR

SR


• Frequency 24 GHz


Content

360° Camera view

GPU / ASIC

RC

AM

LCA

M

FCAM

BCAM


Content

360° LIDAR View

ECU

RLID

R

LLID

R

FLIDR

BLIDR


• IR Laser (905 nm)


Content

Inertial Motion Unit (Rate and Acceleration Sensors)

ECU

IMU

• Rate Sensors: Yaw, Roll, Pitch

• Accelerometers: x, y, z

• Interface: Analog, Digital


Content

Connected Car: V2V / V2I + Cloud Data Aggregation

x, y, z,

v, dv/dt …

x, y, z, v, dv/dt …

x, y, z,

v, dv/dt …

Motion Controller

DSRC

x, y, z, v, dv/dt …

LTE


Content

Sensor Fusion

GPU / DSP

LRFLR

CAM

LIDR

V2X

SRSR


Content

Self Localization

ECU

IMU

Sensor Fusion

GP

S


Motion Control

Content

Motion Control: Performing Operational and Tactical Dynamic Tasks

Sensor Fusion Self Localization

Situational Assessment

Path planningLane change, speed, turn

Perception

Actuation


t0 t2 t4t1 t3

Model to Build the Technology Rollout Roadmap Timeline

Components

Technology Bits

Subsystem

System

Components

Technology Bits

Subsystem

Components

Technology Bits

Components Technology Bits

Subsystem

System

Subsystem


Level 3 Driving (Conditional-automation) Roadmap

Radar, Lidar

SiGe, GaAs

ACC

Level 2 AD

DigitalCamera

ASIC / FPGA

LDW

MEMS IMU

2000 2020 20402010

GPU

V2X

2030

Level 3 AD

LKA

EPS

Hi-Res Maps

ASIL C & DControllers

DSRC

Hi-Res Radars/Lidars

Level 4 AD

3G/4G


2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Conventional Automated Vehicles’ Adoption Roadmap

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 …

Conventional Vehicles

High-End

Mid-Class

Low-End

Flying cars!

L2

L2

L2

L3

L3

L3

L4

L4

L4

L2 L3 L4L1


Shared-Mobility / Public-Personal Transportation Roadmap

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 …

Shared Mobility Vehicles

Limited Driving Modes

All-Modes L4L3

L3 L4

Parking/Charging

Industry

Materials Recycle

Long Distance Transport

Urban Hubs

Remote Charging

Solar

So

la

r

Solar

Platooning

Cloud Processing

Commuter Rapid Transit

High Speed Intercity Transit

Urban

Inner City

Business

Intercity

Flying cars!


Shared Mobility AV Disruption

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500%

25%

50%

75%

100%

L2

L3L4

L4L3

Conventional Vehicles

Shared Mobility Vehicles

Low-End

High-End

2010 2020 2030 2040

Mid-ClassL1

Fewer & fewer total number of vehicles.


Performance in the Context of Fully Automated Vehicles

The “Ultimate Passenger Experience” becomes the key attribute

If “the Ultimate Driving Machine” is self-driven

Standardization and commoditization of Powertrains’ performance such tip-in response,

acceleration and ride and handling

Differentiation on

Fuel efficiency, reliability and functional safety, HMI, connectivity, ride and comfort, NVH, Integration with wearables

Driver health monitoring, mobile office features


Library of smart sensors/actuators/local Controllers

Scalable, Standardized and Modular Architectures

Highly-integratedelectronics

IntegratedPCM

IntegratedVCM

High-speed redundant network


Today: Numerous Controllers, Grouped on Subnets

Brakes

Steering eMotors

BMS

Inverters

ECM

TCM

HVAC

ESC

AdaptiveLighting Seats

Mirrors

Driver Controls

Instruments

Multimedia

Telematic Navigation

RESS

ABS

LKA

ACC

Park Assist

LDW

EmergencyBraking

Traffic JamAssist

Highway Autopilot

Blindspot

RearCamera

RadarsLidars

FrontCamera

SideCameras

DSRC

IMU

ADAS Sensors

Airbags

Impact Sensors

Occupant Classification

Seat Belts

Passive Safety Systems


Body InfotainmentControllerIntegrated Vehicle

Control Module (iVCU)

Integrated Powertrian Control Module (iPCM)

Today: Numerous Controllers, Grouped on Subnets

Brakes

Steering eMotors

BMS

Inverters

ECM

TCM

HVAC

ESC

AdaptiveLighting Seats

Mirrors

Driver Controls

Instruments

Multimedia

Telematic Navigation

RESS

ABS

LKA

ACC

Park Assist

LDW

EmergencyBraking

Traffic JamAssist

Highway Autopilot

Blindspot

RearCamera

RadarsLidars

FrontCamera

SideCameras

DSRC

IMU

ADAS Sensors

Airbags

Impact Sensors

Occupant Classification

Seat Belts

Passive Safety Systems


Application Framework

iVCU BOM

Software Plug-in Environment

HVAC Controls

Transmission Control

Starter/Alternator

Control Unit

Electronic Throttle Control

Energy StorageManagement

Electric Power Steering

ABS / StabilityControl

Body Controls

Package ConfigOTA Mgmt

Parameter MgmtSafety & Security

Mgmt

Logging, Diagnostics,Prognostics

OS, BSP, Drivers

ASIL D Hardware

• Provide environment to drop in ‘apps’ for various vehicle functions• Isolate the overall package management functional safety from individual apps


Other Hot Topics

The Locomotive Act of 1865

(Red Flag Act)

Self-propelled vehicles shall be accompanied by a crew of three; and if the vehicle is attached to two or more vehicles an additional person is to accompany the vehicles, and a man with a red flag walking at least 60 yards ahead of each vehicle, who is also required assist with the passage of horses and carriages. The vehicle is required to stop at the signal of the flagbearer

Speed limit shall be 4 mph (2 mph in towns) We have been there before and we will resolve this

• Legal, warranty and insurance

• Roadway infrastructure needs


Other Hot Topics

We have managed safety and security critical systems to a high degree of success



• Safety and security





• Transition from manual to autonomous vehicles

Other Hot Topics

We have done this before too.





• Transitionary period from manual to autonomous vehicles

• Energy storage and refueling / recharging

Other Hot Topics

Opportunities to develop infrastructure to provide robotic refueling / plugging or inductive charging





• Transitionary period from manual to autonomous vehicles

• Energy storage and refueling / recharging

• Robot takeover

Other Hot Topics

“I don't think we have to worry about autonomous cars, because that's sort of a

narrow form of AI, and not something I think is very difficult to do actually—to do autonomous driving to the degree that's much safer than a

person is much easier than people think.”

Elon Musk at the GTC March 2015


Conclusion

• Mega-cities population growth

• Increased need for on-demand mobility

• Millennials and post-millennials are not that into cars lol yolo

• Increased demand for safety and energy efficiency

• AV will have a significant positive impact on the lives of the elderly and disabled

• Gain in individual productivity while not driving

• Technology readiness

• U.S. auto sales may drop about 40 percent in the next 25 years

• The low and mid range conventional vehicles may disappear

• The largest contribution to the value chain will come from advanced electronics and algorithms

Why AVs are coming

Sea change in our industry