1 • 3/21/11

The Importance of Agricultural

Data and Informatics for

Climate Change Adaptation

Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez,

Glenn Hyman, Jacob van Etten

CCAFS

2 • 3/21/11

The Challenge

3 • 3/21/11

The concentration of

GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for

crop suitability

4 • 3/21/11

Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact

for wheat

Observed changes in growing

season temperature for crop

growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

5 • 3/21/11

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

6 • 3/21/11

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1

Exacerbating the yield gap

From Licker et al, 2010

Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers

(e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap

7 • 3/21/11

In order to meet global demands,

we will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

8 • 3/21/11

“Unchecked climate change will result in a

20% increase in malnourished children by

2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.

-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

9 • 3/21/11

Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming

systems, we need

to:

• Close the

production gap

by effectively

using

technologies,

practices and

policies

• Increase the

bar: develop new

ways to increase

food production

potential

• Enable policies

and institutions,

from the farm to

national level

10 • 3/21/11

A heavy reliance on models

• For a 2030 world, difficult to do work

without the aid of models

• Starts with the Global Climate Models…

• Through to agricultural impacts models

11 • 3/21/11

And models need data… • On climate

• Weather

• Crop distribution

• Crop productivity

• Varietal adaptations

• Genetic traits

• Social parameters

• …and the list goes on….

12 • 3/21/11

And that data should be.. • Available (publically)

• Documented and organised

• Or you’ll have another ClimateGate

13 • 3/21/11

A selection of data and informatics

tools being developed in CCAFS

• Agricultural trial data

• GxE analysis with an emphasis on the E

• Setting breeding priorities for a climate

changed world

• Analogues

• Pulling it all together under a knowledge

management umbrella: the AMKN

14 • 3/21/11

>> Multi-site agricultural trial

database(agtrial.org)

20,000+

maize trials

in 123

research

sites

Effect of +1ºC

warming on

yield

Sites with >23ºC

would suffer

even if optimally

managed

More than 20%

loss in sites

with >20ºC,

under drought

Lobell et al. 2011

15 • 3/21/11

• Over 3,000 trials

• 16 crops

• 20 countries

• > 15 international

and national

institutions

New data

>> Multi-site agricultural trial

database(agtrials.org)

16 • 3/21/11

Importance & Potential

• Collating input climate and agricultural data

• Design of experiments

• Calibration, validation and crop model runs

• Exploration of adaptation options – Genetic improvement

– On-farm management practices

• Test them via modelling

• Build “adaptation packages”

• Assess technology transfer options

(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

17 • 3/21/11

>> Multi-site agricultural trial

database(agtrial.org)

20,000+

maize trials

in 123

research

sites

Effect of +1ºC

warming on

yield

Sites with >23ºC

would suffer

even if optimally

managed

More than 20%

loss in sites

with >20ºC,

under drought

Lobell et al. 2011

18 • 3/21/11

GxE: OPV vs hybrid

19 • 3/21/11

GxE: duration

20 • 3/21/11

21 • 3/21/11

Current Climatic Suitability

22 • 3/21/11

Current Climatic Constraints

23 • 3/21/11

Future Suitability

24 • 3/21/11

Benefits of breeding options

25 • 3/21/11

The Analogue Concept

• We heavily rely on models to tell us

what the future holds

– GCM/RCM projections

– Crop models, household models, farming

system models

• Few take into account human adaptive

capacity, and social and cultural factors

that contribute to decision making

26 • 3/21/11

The Analogue Concept

• Analogues: Use spatial variability in

climate as a means of having a real

experiment of what the future holds for a

site

• Where can I find my future projected

conditions, TODAY?

27 • 3/21/11

Karnal (India)

• Rainy season from June to September

28 • 3/21/11

Why we think this an important

approach

• Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange

of knowledge

• Permitting validation of computational

models and trialing of new

technologies/techniques

29 • 3/21/11

http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogu

es

30 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

It links farmers’ realities on the

ground with promising scientific

research outputs, to inspire new

ideas and highlight current

challenge.

Why is it useful?

The Climate Change Adaptation

and Mitigation Knowledge

Network platform is a portal for

accessing and sharing

agricultural A&M knowledge.

What CCAFS output?

31 • 3/21/11

AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE

SOME OF THESE

APPROACHES TO LINK

KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

32 • 3/21/11 Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal

- CCAFS site

- 600 mm annual rainfall

- Min. Temp. 14.8°C

- Max. Temp. 39.1°C

- Main crops:

- Millet

- Maize

- Peanuts

- Sorghum

- Sesame

-Climate Change threats:

Erratic Rainfall

-Socio-economic

constraints:

-High poverty level

- Low access to

capital

- No attractive market

Kaffrine, Senegal

(x:-15.54,

y:14.106)

33 • 3/21/11 Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Te

mp

era

ture

(ºC

)

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

Month Current precipitation Future precipitation Future mean temperature

Current mean temperature Future maximum temperature Current maximum temperature

Future minimum temperature Current minimum temperature

Average Site-specific Changes in Monthly Climate (based on 19 GCM Models A2a) (IPCC, 2007)

Average Climate Change Trends:

- Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm

- Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C

34 • 3/21/11 Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Su

ita

bil

ity (

%)

Current suitability

Suitability change in 2050

Current

suitabilit

y (%)

Suitability

change

(%)

Growing

season

(days)

Temp

min

(°C)

Temp

optimale

min

(°C)

Temp

optimale

max (°C)

Temp

max

(°C)

Precipitation

min (mm)

Precipitatio

n optimale

min (mm)

Precipitation

optimale

max (mm)

Precipitation

max (mm)

Maize 96 -6 215 10 18 33 47 400 600 1200 1800

Millet 100 -13 170 15 20 32 45 200 500 750 1000

Peanut 100 -3 120 10 22 32 45 400 500 1500 4000 Sesame

seed 100 -6 110 10 20 30 40 300 500 1000 1500 Sorghu

m 100 -55 195 8 22 35 40 300 400 600 700

35 • 3/21/11

- Mean of the

dissimilarity index

of 24 GCMs

between the

starting site

Kaffrine, Senegal

with the entire

world

- Climate

parameters: -Monthly temperature

- Monthly rainfall

- Scenario A1B,

2030

High

climate

similarity

Where can we find a region with similar climatic

conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030?

Climate

similarity

36 • 3/21/11

Tougou, Burkina Faso Lawra Jirapa,

Ghana

Segou, Mali

Fakara, Niger

0.5

1

1.5

2

0 5 10 15 20 25

Sta

nd

ard

dev

iati

on

Value of Mean dissimilarity of 24GCMs

Potential 2030-analogues of Kaffrine, Senegal

CCAFS site with

minimum value of

dissimilarity with the

climate of Kaffrine,

Senegal

= Tougou, Burkina

Faso

Best consistency

between the 24

GCM’s

= Fakara , Niger

The current climate

of Fakara is similar

to the future

projected climate in

Kaffrine

Fakara is the most likely

analogue of Kaffrine

Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites

37 • 3/21/11

- CCAFS site

-500 mm annual rainfall

- Min. Temp. 15.7°C

- Max. Temp. 41.3°C

- Main crops:

- Millet

- Beans

- Leafy vegetables

- Maize

- Sorghum

- Climate Change threats:

Drought

- Socio-economic

constraints:

- Low level of

infrastructure

- Limited access to

market

Fakara, Niger

(x:2.687,

y:13.517)

Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger

38 • 3/21/11 Comparison of current conditions

Current conditions

Kaffrine, Senegal Fakara, Niger = Future

condition of Kaffrine

Zone Transition zone from the

Sahelien towards the Sudan Savannah zone

Within the Sahel

Altitude 15 m 225 m

Annual

rainfall

average 600 mm 500 mm

Minimum

Temperature 14.8 °C 15.7 °C

Maximum

Temperature 39.1 °C 41.3 °C

Main crops

Millet

Maize

Peanuts

Sorghum

Sesame

Millet

Beans

Leafy vegetables

Maize

Sorghum

Length of

Growing

period 130 days 95 days

Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soil

Soil FAO

Class Ferric Luvisols Luvic Arenosols

Socio-

economic

constraints

High poverty level

Low access to capital

No attractive market

Low level of infrastructure

Limited access to market

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)

Pre

cip

itati

on

(m

m)

Month

Kaffrine, Senegal

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)

Pre

cip

itati

on

(m

m)

Month

Fakara, Niger

39 • 3/21/11

Kaffrine,

Senegal Fakara,

Niger

Millet

Maize

Peanuts

Sorghum

Sesame

Millet

Beans

Leafy

vegetables

Maize

Sorghum

Comparison of main crops

40 • 3/21/11 Agtrial database - Application

Kontela, Mali is another potential

analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal

The sorghum yield data in Kontela,

Mali could help us to know the future

sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.

Sorghum yield data Sorghum Variety

K (kg/ha) N

(kg/ha) P (kg/ha)

Lime (kg/ha)

Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield

(t/ha)

CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68

CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10

CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55

CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33

CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38

CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40

CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54

CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68

CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06

CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08

Yield data available in the Agtrials

database: http://www.agtrials.org:85/

41 • 3/21/11

Millet Yield data Variety name Grain Yield (t/ha)

Nyamkombo 0.87

Okashana-2 1.09

PMV-2 0.78

PMV-3 0.86

SDMV89003 0.88

SDMV89007 0.82

SDMV90031 1.16

SDMV91018 0.91

SDMV92033 0.75

SDMV92038 0.82

SDMV95032 1.03

SDMV95033 0.93

SDMV95045 1.13

SDMV96075 0.89

SDMV97007 0.87

SDMV97011 0.87

TSPM91018 0.69

SDMV89005 0.90

SDMV92035 0.51

SDMV92037 1.01

SDMV95009 0.77

SDMV95014 0.68

SDMV95025 0.73

ZPMV92005 0.50

ZPMV94001 0.60

Agtrial database - Application

Senegal

Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential

analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal

Yield data available in the Agtrial database: http://www.agtrials.org:85/

The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzania

could help us to know the future millet yield

in Kaffrine, Senegal.

42 • 3/21/11

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