Feeding the World: Smallholders and Livestock

Iain Wright

Innovation Laboratory on Livestock and Climate Change World Bank, Washington, 29 May 2014

OUTLINE

The global challenge for agricultureLivestock dimensionsRole of smallholdersLivestock challenges and opportunitiesA bit about ILRI

THE GLOBAL CHALLENGE

How the world would feed itself sustainably by the time population stabilizes?

60% more food than is produced now 75% of this must come from productivity

increase While also reducing poverty Taking care of natural resources Coping with climate change

The global livestock sector

Total animals:17 billion

Asset value:$1.4 trillion

Employs:1.3 billion people

Uses:1/3 of the earth’sice-free surface

4

Four of the five highest value globalagricultural commodities are livestock products

5Source: FAOSTAT, 2010 data

Four out of the ten highest value African commodities are livestock

6Source: FAOSTAT, 2010 data

Livestock contribution to GDP

• Livestock accounts for 35-40% of Ag GDP in developing countries

• Attracts 5-10% of investment

• Growing at 2.5-6.0%

0

50,000

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1982

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Mill

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tons

Developing

Developed

Where is the growth?Gains in meat consumption in developing countries

is outpacing that of developed countries and this is expected to continue

Growing Incomes are a key catalyst to demand growth for livestock products

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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000

Per

cap

ita m

eat

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mp

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(kg

/year)

Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)

US

Japan

Chi

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Bra

Percentage increase in demandfor livestock products

Developing Countries Developed Countries0

20

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MeatMilkEggs

2000 to 2040

IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results

Far higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries

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90 95 2000 2004 2005 2008 2009

Milli

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Beef Pork Poultry Meat Ovine

Trade matters - but local markets matter more

The value of meat

trade is estimated over $100 billion in 2011, approximately 10 percent of agricultural trade.

However, trade of meat accounts for only 10 percent of consumption

Food production: From where?

Herrero et al. 2009

Livestock for livelihoods -developing world 70% of the world’s rural poor rely on livestock for

important parts of their livelihoods.

Of the 1 billion poor livestock keepers in the world, around two-thirds are rural women.

More than half of livestock products are produced by small holders –and growing

Farm sizes will continue to decline in Africa

Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping come from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing.

Animal source foods are important for nutritional security

Livestock keepers in developing countries

Density of poor livestock keepers

One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock600 million in south Asia300 million in sub Saharan Africa

ILRI, 2012

0 or no data

Livestock opportunities and challenges

Feeding the World• Livestock provide 58 million tonnes of protein annually and 17% of the

global kilocalories. Removing poverty

• Almost 1 billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods Managing the environment

• Livestock contribute 14 -18% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions; use 30% of the freshwater used for agriculture and 30% of the ice free land

Improving human health• Zoonoses and contaminated animal source foods• Malnutrition and obesity

Livestock non-tradables make large contributions to the rural poor• Manure, Energy (traction, fuel), cultural 15

To eat meat or not to eat . . .

One billion hungry Two billion overweight

Source: (Steinfeld et al. 2006)

Large productivity gaps between richand poor countries are not closing

Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk

Africa Latin America South Asia Industrialized Countries

4111021

517

4226

397

1380904

6350

Milk (kg/cow/yr)

1980 2005

Addressing GHG inefficiencies in the developing world is an opportunity

Herrero et al PNAS

GHG per kg of animal protein produced

19

Increasing productivity reduces GHC emissions

Growth scenarios for livestock systems ‘Strong growth’

– Where good market access andincreasing productivity provide opportunities for continued smallholder participation.

‘Fragile growth’– Where remoteness, marginal land

resources or agro-climatic vulnerability restrict intensification.

‘High growth with externalities’– Fast changing livestock systems

potentially damaging the environment and human health

Different research and development challenges for poverty, food security, health and nutrition, environment

ILRI and CGIAR research programs

Dryland CerealsGrain Legumes

Livestock and FishMaizeRice

Roots, Tubers and BananasWheat

Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityForests, Trees and Agroforestry

Water, Land and Ecosystems

Integrated Systems for the Humid TropicsAquatic Agricultural Systems

Dryland Systems

Policies, Institutions, and MarketsAgriculture for Nutrition and Health

ILRI Resources

• Staff: 700.

• Budget: $83 million.

• 30+ scientific disciplines.

• 140 senior scientists from 39 countries.

• 56% of internationally recruited

staff are from 22 developing countries.

• 34% of internationally recruited staff

are women.

• Large campuses in Kenya and Ethiopia.

• 70% of research in sub-Saharan Africa.

ILRI’s research teams

23

Integrated sciences Biosciences

Animal science for sustainable productivity

BecA-ILRI hub

Food safety and zoonoses Vaccine platform

Livestock systems and the environment

Animal bioscience

Livelihoods, gender and impact Feed and forage bioscience

Policy, trade, value chains Bioscience facilities

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