1

Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives Next Decade & Beyond

December 8, 2008

Art Charo

Space Studies Board

2

Agenda

• What is a Decadal survey?• Why Earth Science & Applications from Space (ESAS)?• Statement of Task & Key Challenges• Organization & Approach• Principal Recommendations• Media & Congressional Reaction

3

Decadal Survey Purpose & OSTP* Recommended Approach

“Decadal Survey benefits:• Community-based documents offering consensus of science opportunities to retain US scientific leadership

• Provides well-respected source for priorities & scientific motivations to agencies, OMB, OSTP, & Congress”

“Most useful approach:• Frame discussion identifying key science questions

– Focus on what to do, not what to build– Discuss science breadth & depth (e.g., impact on

understanding fundamentals, related fields & interdisciplinary research)

• Explain measurements & capabilities to answer questions• Discuss complementarity of initiatives, relative phasing, domestic & international context”

*From “The Role of NRC Decadal Surveys in Prioritizing Federal Funding for Science & Technology,” Jon Morse, Office of Science & Technology Policy (OSTP), NRC Workshop on Decadal Surveys, November 14-16, 2006

4

Astronomy: “Gold Standard” Decadal SurveyOSTP response to Inquiries about Decadal Surveys, August 2006:

“OMB uses surveys as a significant consideration in budget decisions each year, in addition to other budget & policy considerations.”

“In particular, astronomy surveys are generally considered the gold standard of independent priority setting by a scientific community.”

5

Vision for First ESAS Decadal Survey

A healthy, secure, prosperous& sustainable society forall people on Earth

“Understanding the complex,changing planet on which we live, how it supports life, & how human activities affect its ability to do so in the future is one of the greatest intellectual challenges facing humanity. It is also one of the most important for society as it seeks to achieve prosperity & sustainability.”NRC (April 2005)

6

ESAS Survey Statement of Tasks

Task Task Statement Approach

1 Assess progress resolving major scientific questions in relevant NRC, NASA, & other studies realizing desired predictive & applications capabilities via space-based Earth observations

>100 multi-disciplinary experts on panels

2 Develop consensus of top scientific questions to focus Earth environmental observations 2005-2015

Top-Ten

3 Take into account principal federal & state users & identify opportunities & challenges to exploit data

Many user briefings

4 Recommend prioritized measurements & new capabilities & activities in NASA ESE & NOAA NESDIS to support national needs for Earth research & monitoring 2005-2015

Major focus of survey

5 Identify important directions to influence planning for decade beyond 2015

Post-2015 mission plans

7

Key ESAS Survey Challenges• Earth Science Community Buy-in

– 1st ESAS decadal survey: June 2005 received >100 10-15 page mission concepts in response to NRC ESAS survey Request for Information

– Earth science breadth - Sean Solomon, director Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institute Washington: “..report is important milestone because earth science community had never before spoken with one voice.” Eos, vol. 88, 6 Feb 2007

• How to cover science/application themes & scientific disciplines• Multi-Agency Issues: NASA Transition to NOAA & Sustained NASA Research Ops• NASA/NOAA budget cuts & GOES/NPOESS cost growth/cancellations during study

Woods Hole August 2004

8

Executive Committee & 7 Thematic PanelsMember Institution Expertise

Rick Anthes Univ. Corp. Atmospheric Research (UCAR), co-chair

Atmospheric science

Berrien Moore U. New Hampshire, co-chair Biogeochemical cycling

Jim Anderson Harvard University Atmospheric science, chemistry

Bruce Marcus Former TRW (ret) Remote sensing

Bill Gail Microsoft Virtual Earth Civil space & Information Technology

Susan Cutter U. South Carolina Hazards & risk

Tony Hollingsworth

European Centre Medium-range Weather Forecasts

Weather forecasting

Kathie Kelly U. Washington Physical oceanography, satellite observation

Neal Lane Rice University Policy

Warren Washington

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Climate

Mary Lou Zoback Risk Management Solutions Solid earth

Tony Janetos Pac. NW Natl Lab/UMd, Applications Panel Chair

Ecology & land remote sensing

Brad Hagar MIT, Solid Earth Panel Chair Solid earth & Natural hazards

Ruth DeFries U. Maryland, Ecosystems Panel Chair Land cover change & remote sensing

Susan Avery U. Colorado, Weather Panel Chair Weather

Eric Barron U. Texas, Climate Panel Chair Climate

Dennis Lettenmaier

U. Washington, Water Resources Panel Chair

Water resources

Mark Wilson U. Michigan, Human Health Panel Chair Human health

9

Number USA Missions Number USA Instruments

Interim Report Set Stage (& Tone) for Survey“Today, this system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse.” NRC ESAS Interim Report, April 2005Since: More delays, descoping & cancellations…

"In the short period since the Interim Report [Spring 2005], budgetary constraints & programmatic difficulties at NASA have greatly exacerbated this concern.  At a time of unprecedented need, the nation’s Earth observation satellite programs, once the

envy of the world, are in disarray." 15 January 2007 Final Report

10

400 Page Final Report* 15 January 2007

•“Overarching” recommendation: Renew investment in satellite Earth observing systems to restore US Earth Science & Applications leadership

•Report recommends specific, integrated mission suite

– Rolled-up panel recommendations preserve highest priorities

– Sequenced 2010-2020+ launches

– Cost matches anticipated resources + reasonable growth•Guidance on budget & technology problems

Recommendations build on current instruments & offer a new level of integration to address key science & yield critical societal benefits

*Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11820.html

11

Top Ten Scientific Questions

10. Are major fault systems nearing release of stress via strong earthquakes?

9. Will tropical cyclones & heat waves become more frequent & intense?

8. What are health impacts of expanded “Ozone Hole” that could result from stratosphere cooling associated with climate change?

7. Will rare diseases become common, how will mosquito-borne viruses spread with changes in rainfall & drought, & can we better predict avian flu?

6. How will boreal forests shift as temperature & precipitation change at high latitudes, & what effects on animal migrations & invasive species will occur?

5. How will coastal & ocean ecosystems respond to changes in physical forcing, particularly those subject to intense human harvesting?

4. How will economic development affect air pollution & transport across oceans & continents, & how are pollutants transformed during transport?

3. How will reduced snowfall affect water storage requirements?

2. Will droughts become more widespread in U.S., Australia, & sub-Saharan Africa, & how will that affect wildfires?

1. Will major ice sheets (including Greenland & West Antarctica) collapse, & if so, how rapidly & what sea-level rise will result?

12

Survey Driven by Societal Needs*

Extreme Event Warnings: Better storm track forecasts & intensification predictions, volcanic eruption & landslide warnings for effective evacuation planning

Human Health: Better infectious & vector-borne disease forecasts for control & response

Earthquake Warning: Identify active faults & predict likelihood of earthquakes for effective structural improvements & informed land-use decisions

Improved Weather Prediction: Longer-term, more reliable forecasts

Sea-level Rise: Better ocean temperature & ice-sheet volume change forecasts & feedback for effective coastal community planning

Air Quality: More reliable forecasts for effective urban pollution management

Freshwater Availability: Improved precipitation & drought forecasts for better management

Ecosystem Services: Improved agricultural land-use & ocean productivity forecasts to improve planting & harvesting schedules & fisheries management

Climate Prediction: Robust estimates of climate forcings for better forecasts, including local predictions of climate change effects

*Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Working Group

13

Setting NOAA’s Foundation: Current Decade Recommendations

• Restore National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) canceled capabiilties:

–Total solar irradiation (TSI) & Earth radiation budget (ERB) to avoid 2008-2012 gap

–Passive ocean vector winds & all-weather sea surface temperature Conical Microwave Imager/Sounder (CMIS)

–Limb sounding by Ozone Monitoring & Profiling Suite (OMPS)

• Restore next-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) canceled capabilities:

–GEO temperature & water vapor vertical sounding originally planned via canceled GOES-R Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES)

–Recognizing technology challenges & potential HES cost growth:

• Complete & launch Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS), & evaluate as HES prototype; and/or

• Restore HES study contracts to focus on cost-effective, essential GOES-R sounding

–Will strengthen GEO sounding technology & provide experience for efficient operational implementation

GIFTS Spacecraft Artist Concept

GIFTS/HES “4d” profile simulation (Univ. of Wisconsin)

CMIS ModelCMIS-like Rain Rate

~4m

14

Setting NASA’s Foundation: Current Decade Recommendations

• Near-term NASA concerns:– Understand changing precipitation patterns due to climate change– Understand land-use effects of growing population, changing economies, &

agriculture intensification• Therefore: Maintain Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission & continue to

document biosphere changes provided by Landsat1. Launch GPM by 20122. Replace Landsat 7 data before 2012

Sustained measurements of key climate & weather variables are part of committee’s strategy to achieve vision for Earth information in next decade

Landsat 7 Landsat: Mt. St. Helens

GPM SpacecraftGPM Microwave Imager

15

Next Decade Mission Selection & Prioritization

Selection Process:• Panels reviewed >100 candidates, 35 recommended to Executive committee• Range & synergy of measurements critical, not individual missions• Robustness of mission synergies ensures measurements

Prioritization Criteria: (Not in order of importance)• Ability to complement other systems, US & international plans• Contribution to:

– Applications & policy (societal needs)– Long-term observational record– Multiple applications or science disciplines– Top scientific questions

• Cost (mission total or per year)• Readiness (technical, resources, people)• Risk & strategic redundancy (backup other critical systems)

16

17 Recommended New Missions:“Minimal Yet Robust”

• NOAA & NASA missions launched from 2010-2020:– Seven “small” ($65M to $300 million, ~50% “error bar”)– Eight “medium” ($350M to $600M)– Two “large” ($700M & $800M, ~30% “error bar”)

• NOAA: Transition 3 LEO “research” to “operational”– Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVRM)– GPS radio-occultation (GPSRO) temperature, water vapor, & electron

density sounding– Total solar irradiance via Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity

Observatory (CLARREO) & NPOESS• NASA: Implement solar spectral portion of CLARREO & 14 other missions, 2 GEO (Geo-CAPE & PATH) & 12 LEO

• 15 LEO missions each include a GPS receiver to augment operational measurements of temperature & water vapor

3D-WindsACE

ASCENDS

CLARREO

DESDynI GACM

Geo-CAPE

GPSRO

GRACE-IIHyspIRIICESat-IIPATH

& LIST

SCLPSMAPSWOTXOVRM

17

30 Measurement Types Across 7 ThemesMeasurement Type (# missions) Panel Theme

Acute Toxic Pollution Releases (3) Health

Aerosol-Cloud Discovery (1) Weather

Air Pollution (3) Health

Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease (5)

Health

All Weather Temperature & Humidity Profiles (2)

Weather

Carbon budget (1) Ecosystem

Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon (2) Weather

Cold Seasons (4) Water

Ecosystem Function (1) Ecosystem

Ecosystem Structure & Biomass (2) Ecosystem

Global Ecosystem Dynamics (2) Ecosystem

Global Ocean Productivity (2) Water

Heat Stress & Drought (6) Health

High Resolution Topography (1) Solid Earth

Ice Dynamics (2) Climate

Measurement Type (# missions) Panel Theme

Inland & Coastal Water Quality (1) Water

Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing (3)

Climate

Ozone Processes (5) Health

Radiance Calibration (2) Climate

Radio Occultation (14) Weather

Soil Moisture & Freeze/Thaw State (1) Water

Surface Water & Ocean Topography (2) Water

Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (2)

Water

Surface Deformation (2) Solid Earth

Surface Composition/Therm. Properties (1) Solid Earth

Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization (3) Weather

Tropospheric Ozone (3) Weather

Tropospheric Winds (1) Weather

Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (5) Health

Water Vapor Transport (1) Water

Most Measurements by Multiple Missions

18

Three Proven NOAA Missions2010-2013 (#) Measurement Types

(Panel Themes)Orbit Instruments Estimate

Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO-Reflight instrumentation)

(2) Solar & earth radiance calibration for climate, ozone processes for health (Climate and health)

LEO, SSO*

Broadband radiometers

$65M

GPS radio occultation (GPSRO)

(4) High accuracy, all-weather temperature, water, electron density profiles (Climate, health, water, & weather)

LEO GPS receiver $150M

2013-2016 Measurement Orbit Instruments Estimate

Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM)

Sea surface wind vectors for ocean circulation, heat storage, & climate forcing

LEO, SSO

Backscatter radar, multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer

$350M

*Sun-synchronous orbit (SSO)

19

Four 2010-2013 NASA MissionsMission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate

Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO-NASA portion)

(1) Forcing & response of climate (climate) Precessing LEO

Absolute, spectrally resolved solar interferometer

$200M

Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP)

(5) Soil moisture & freeze/thaw, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Health and water)

LEO, SSO L-band radar & radiometer

$300M

Ice, Cloud, & Land Elevation Satellite –II (ICESat-II)

(5) Clouds, Aerosols, Ice & Carbon, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, water)

LEO, Non- SSO

Laser altimeter $300M

Deformation, Ecosystem Structure & Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI)

(8) Ice Dynamics, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Heat Stress & Drought,Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Deformation, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, health, solid earth, water)

LEO, SSO L-band (1.2GHz) InSAR

Laser altimeter

$700M

20

Five 2013-2016 NASA MissionsMission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate

Hyperspectral/IR Imagery (HyspIRI)

(4) Land surface composition for agriculture & mineral characterization, vegetation types for ecosystem health (Ecosystem, health, solid earth)

LEO, SSO

Hyperspectral spectrometer

$300M

Active Sensing of CO2

Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS)

(2) Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO2 column for climate, ozone processes for health (Climate, ecosystem, health)

LEO, SSO

Multifrequency laser

$400M

Surface Water/Ocean Topography (SWOT)

(4) Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Climate, health, water)

LEO, SSO

Ku-band radar

Ku-band altimeter

Microwave radiometer

$450M

Geostationary Coastal & Air Pollution Events (Geo-CAPE)

(9) Air Pollution, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Heat Stress & Drought, Inland & Coastal Water Quality, Ozone Processes. Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather)

GEO High spatial resolution hyperspectral spectrometer

Low spatial resolution imaging spectrometer

IR correlation radiometer

$550M

Aerosol/Cloud/Ecosystems (ACE)

(10) Aerosol-Cloud, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon. Ice Dynamics, Global Ocean Productivity, Ozone Processes, Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Climate, ecosystem, health, weather)

LEO, SSO

Backscatter lidar

Multiangle polarimeter

Doppler radar

$800M

21

Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) Based on Flight Systems

Hyperion Vis/SWIRSpectrometer

Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission & Reflection radiometer (ASTER) Thermal Imager

• Launch: 2013-2016• Cost: ~$300M• Orbit: LEO, SSOInstruments:• Pointable Vis/IR

90km swath 45m Spectrometer

• 5-band 400km swath 90m Thermal imager

Heritage:• Vis/NIR/SWIR (0.4-

2.5 um) Hyperion• ASTER Thermal

Imager

22

Six 2016-2020 NASA MissionsMission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate

Lidar Surface Topography (LIST)

(3) Landslide hazards & water runoff, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (Health, solid earth)

LEO, SSO

Modified Laser altimeter

$300M

Precision & All-weather Temperature & Humidity (PATH)

(5) All-weather temperature & humidity soundings for weather forecasting & SST, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious DiseaseVector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Cold Seasons (Health, water, weather)

GEO Microwave array spectrometer

$450M

Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment-II (GRACE-II)

(2) High temporal resolution gravity fields to track large-scale water movement (Climate and water)

LEO, SSO

Microwave or laser ranging system

$450M

Snow & Cold Land Processes (SCLP)

(1) Snow accumulation for fresh water availability (Water)

LEO, SSO

Ku & X-band radars

K & Ka-band radiometers

$500M

Global Atmospheric Composition Mission (GACM)

(7) Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution Cold Seasons, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Ozone Processes, Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather)

LEO, SSO

UV spectrometer

IR spectrometer

Microwave limb sounder

$600M

3-Dimensional Tropospheric Winds from Space-based Lidar (3D-Winds: Demo)

(3) Weather forecasting, pollution & water vapor transport (Health, water, weather)

LEO, SSO

Doppler lidar $650M

23

Recommendations Synergistically Support Societal Needs

Human Health

Earthquake Warning

Weather Prediction

Sea-level Rise

Climate Prediction

Freshwater Availability

Ecosystem Services

Air Quality

24

Each Mission Serves Multiple Societal Needs

Mission Air Quality

Climate Prediction

Earthquake Warning

Ecosystem Services

Ext Event Warning

Freshwater Availability

Human Health

Weather Prediction

Sea Rise

3d-Winds X X X X

ACE X X X X

ASCENDS X X

CLARREO X X

DESDynI X X X X X

GACM X X X

Geo-CAPE X X X

GPSRO X X X X X

GRACE-II X X

HyspIRI X X

ICESat-II X X

LIST X X

PATH X X X X X X

SCLP X X

SMAP X X

SWOT X X X X X

XOVRM X X X

Societal Need

25

Program Ground Rules: If in Trouble, Pull Over

• Leverage International Efforts–Restructure or defer mission if international missions meet most objectives–Offer cost-effective additions to international missions to improve them

• Manage Technology Risk–Sequence missions according to technological readiness & budget risk factors–Reduce cost risk by investing early in technology challenges–Establish readiness by technology demos before mission development

• Respond to Budget Pressures & Shortfalls–Delay missions with small (~10%) cost growth–Protect overarching program by canceling missions that substantially overrun–Implement independent review so decisions on technical capabilities, cost, & schedule are in context of scientific objectives

–Maintain broad research program with reduced funds, accepting greater mission risk rather than descoping missions & science requirements

26

NOAA NESDIS GOES/NPOESS & Recommended Mission (FY06$) Budget

• Earth observations accompanied by complementary observations of human activities & effects on Earth

• Socioeconomics considered in Earth observation missions & recommended Earth Information System

• Consider data assimilation from multiple sensors & all sources, including commercial & international partners

• Create a climate data & information system to produce, distribute, & manage climate records from NPOESS, etc

• Ensure early attention to data processing & distribution, with free or low-cost, easily-accessible data

27

NASA Earth Science Budget for Recommended Missions

•Increase studies & cross-cutting technology to:–Decrease risk–Reduce costs

•Restore frequent launches & demo high-risk technology:

–Replace Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) with Venture low-cost research missions ($100M - $200M)

–Focus on innovation–Train future leaders

•Support suborbital platforms: –Airborne programs suffered substantial

diminution & should be restored–Add Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to

strategic plan•Increase Research & Applications (R&A)

–Space missions should have adequate R&A as well as operations & data analysis funding

–R&A to be protected: Not reserve for hardware cost growth

28

Minimal Robust Mission Summary

•NASA & NOAA should aggressively pursue technology for recommended missions &:–Plan transitions of useful research observations to operations–Foster innovative space-based concepts

•NASA, NOAA & USGS increase high-performance computing, modeling & data assimilation •OSTP, with relevant agencies & science community, should:

–Develop & implement plan to sustain global observations–Accommodate complexity of agency responsibilities & capabilities–Create NASA/NOAA Earth Science Applications Pathfinder (ESAP) for new capabilities

$7.5B*

*FY06$

29

“Immediate” Media Reaction

New York Times Editorial:

Blinding Ourselves in Space January 21, 2007

“…National Academy of Sciences projected alarming decline in vital studies & monitoring. …since 2000 [NASA’s] budget for earth sciences decreased over 30% …

By 2010, number instruments…likely to drop 40%…bound to hobble efforts to understand if hurricanes & heat waves [will be] more frequent & intense, ice sheets collapse & drive sea levels dangerously high, how fish stocks, deforestation, drinking water & air pollution are affected as populations grow...

We need more data in coming years, not less.”

January 23 2007NYT Editorial Page Cartoon

30

Recent Congressional Reaction

“When accurate weather forecasting & climate research is increasingly important to the well-being of our citizens, this distinguished panel of

experts is warning in no uncertain terms that 'the United States’ extraordinary foundation of global observations is at great risk.'"

"I don’t think the National Academies could be clearer voicing its concern over the current state of affairs," added Chairman Gordon. "It’s not easy to find the money, but given the consequences of inaction, we must try."

13 February 2007

Dr. Rick Anthes,NRC Co-chair

Dr. Berrien Moore,NRC Co-chair

31

Earth Science & Applications from Space: National Imperatives for Next Decade &

Beyond

Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11820.html