Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap #9 Interim Report April 15, 2005

DRAFT, 4/4/2005 1Earth Sci. & Appl. from Space Strat. Roadmap Interim Report (4/15/2005)

Earth Science and Applications from Space

Strategic Roadmap #9

Interim Report

April 15, 2005



The Delicate Balance of Cosmos and Earth

• The human need to explore is never exhausted.

• The compass that today guides this timeless endeavor is scientific inquiry. – science that gazes outward, providing the grand questions that

challenge us to journey farther and farther from home. – science that peers inward, asking the practical questions that help us

to make Earth safer, protect our citizens, and expand our economy

• Knowledge of the Earth drives the economic growth and environmental security that allow us to be an exploring nation– This program must devote equal attention to both questions that

underpin our outward desires, and questions that support our inward needs.


Roadmap Achievements

Your roadmap with its major options and branch points

Broken into timeframes as shown

APIO Target ~10-15 Pages


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap National & NASA Strategic Objectives

NASA’s Guiding National Objective:

Study the Earth system from space and develop new space-based and related capabilities for this purpose (#5)

NASA Strategic Objective for 2005 and Beyond:

Advance scientific knowledge of the Earth system through space-based observation, assimilation of new observations, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities including those with the potential to improve future operational systems (#14)

Parsed Text of Strategic Objective: • Advance scientific knowledge of the Earth system

– through • space-based observation, • assimilation of new observations, and • development and deployment of enabling

– technologies, – systems, and – capabilities – including those with the potential to improve future operational systems


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Strategic Roadmap Compelling Questions

• How do we use new knowledge and capabilities to explore and gain new perspective about Earth’s inner workings and its ability to sustain life?

• How do natural and anthropogenic influences drive the evolution of the Earth, and what are the subsequent implications for life on Earth?

• How are the Earth’s atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans, solid earth, and biosphere and their interactions changing, what drives such changes; and what do they mean for the long-term health of the planet?

• What space-based and supporting environmental observations should be develop that will enable models to accurately predict short- and long-term change?

• How can the unique vantage point of space be used to protect life and property and improve the quality of life on Earth today, tomorrow, and beyond?


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Cross-Cutting Science Goals

• Explore and develop a predictive understanding of the Earth as a system of interacting systems, including…– biogeochemical cycles and the variety, forms, and

interdependencies of life on the Earth– the storage, distribution, and transport of water in all its forms – the Earth's weather and climate, and its future condition– the sources, sinks, and transformations of aerosols and

atmospheric chemical species – the variability of the Solid Earth– the interaction between human systems and the Earth’s

natural systems


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Strategic Roadmap Challenges

( example “word-smithing” to advance the discussion)• Exploration and Discovery

– Science is surprising– A robust science strategy must leave room for unexpected results, new questions, and

new investigations• Continuous Awareness

– Science is fleeting– A robust science strategy must be adaptive to observe phenomena when they occur

• The Earth system can respond in non-linear ways -- short-lived, threshold events such as fire, flood, frost, or disease can have long-term, lasting impacts

• Knowledge and prediction of these events can improve lives and benefit society• Maintain Perspective

– Science requires persistence– A robust science strategy must recognize that investigations scale to the phenomena

they study• May require decades to resolve long-term phenomena such as climate change (separate climate

“signal” from weather “noise”)• Future researchers will seek new answers from old data

• Connect to Society’s Concerns– Science is relevant– A robust science strategy must recognize its practical implications

• Provide relevant information for policy and decision makers• Acquiring and enabling capabilities and outcomes of social and economic value

Basis for Strategic Roadmap Objectives Organize strategic roadmap implementation to address these challenges


Earth Science & Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Challenges

Explorations on the Frontiers of Science• Places we’ve never seen• Processes we don’t understand• Phenomena we can’t yet sample• Perspectives we have not yet used

Continuous Awareness• Getting the data you need when, where and how you need it• 4-D measurement/model integration - sensorweb/modelweb• Transient events (e.g., fire, flood) with lasting impacts• Partnerships for decision support & societal benefits• Application for operations on other planets

Maintain Perspectives• Challenging long-term measurements -- calibration, validation, inter-comparison• Data stewardship -- archiving for the researchers of the 22nd century• Modeling on planetary/geologic timescales• Transition from research to operations

Connect to Society’s Concerns


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Specific Roadmap Objectives

(subject to “word-smithing”)

• Exploration and Discovery– Explore new aspects of the Earth System– Discover connections between elements of the Earth system

• Maintain Perspective– Establish a flexible framework for identifying, initiating, and

continuing key space-based observations required for long-term Earth system studies, and ensuring their quality, consistency and preservation, over very long time periods, for science research and operational usability, and long-term prediction

• Continuous Awareness– Transform discovery and decisions in Earth Science through

continuous awareness of our environment

• During the 3/29/2005 conference call, subcommittee leads took the action to rework and refine these objectives


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Strategic Roadmap Goal Structure

1 chart with notes integrated by G. Johnston et.al with inputs From each Subcommittee Chair

Agency Strategic Objective: Advance scientific knowledge of the Earth system through space-based observation, assimilation of new observations, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities including those with the potential to improve future operational systems.

Phase 1: 2005-2015 Phase 2: 2015-2025 Phase 3: 2025-beyond

Explore new aspects of the Earth System

Discover connections between elements of the Earth system

Transform discovery and decisions in Earth Science through continuous awareness of our environment

Demonstrate improved capability to forecast weatherDemonstrate capability to make useful forecasts of air pollutionReconstruct atmospheric circulation to identify regional sources of aerosols and atmospheric gassesForecasts of surface ultraviolet radiationGlobal productivity and land cover change at fine resolution (spatial and temporal)Understand plate boundary deformation & earthquake hazards

Extend accuracy of weather forecasts towards theoretical limit (~14 days)Improve weather hazard alert capability through active sensing from higher orbits and improved information and computation systems

Maintain Perspective - Establish a flexible framework for identifying, initiating, and continuing key space-based observations required for long-term Earth system studies, and ensuring their quality, consistency and preservation, over very long time periods, for science research and operational usability, and long-term prediction

Characterize, understand the major mechanisms, and reduce uncertainty in:•Long-term climate change predictions•Seasonal, regional forecasts of precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, etc.•Sea level change from the interactions of ice masses, oceans, & the solid EarthAbility to monitor and predict the recovery of stratospheric ozone and its impacts on surface ultraviolet radiation


Where We Plan to Be in 2015(from Research Plan, Jan. 6. 2005 update)

• Climate Variability and Change– Characterization and reduction of uncertainty in long-term prediction– Routine probabilistic forecasts of precipitation, surface temperature, and soil moisture– Sea-level rise prediction

• Atmospheric Composition– Improved prognostic capability for the recovery of stratospheric ozone and its impacts on surface

ultraviolet radiation– Improved prognostic capability for the evolution of greenhouse gases and their impacts on climate– Improved prognostic capability for the evolution of tropospheric ozone and aerosols and their impacts

on climate and air quality• Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems

– Global productivity and land cover change at fine resolution– Biomass and carbon fluxes quantified– Useful ecological forecasts and improved climate change projections

• Water and Energy Cycle– Capability to observe, model, and predict the water and energy cycles, including regional scales and

extreme events• Weather

– Weather and severe storm forecasts (especially hurricane landfall tracking accuracy), winter stores hazards, and precipitation forecasts will be greatly improved

• Earth Surface and Interior– Understand plate boundary deformation & earthquake hazards– How tectonics & plate interactions shape the Earth’s surface– Sea level changes from the interactions of ice masses, oceans, & the solid Earth


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Notional Key Achievements (in question form)

Organized by Cross-Cutting Science GoalsExplore and develop a predictive understanding of the Earth as a system of interacting systems, including:

Questions to identify key accomplishments.

If we implement the priority measurements in the decades indicated, then…

•biogeochemical cycles and the variety, forms, and interdependencies of life on the Earth

•In what decade will we resolve the major uncertainties and close the carbon cycle? What about the other major biogeochemical cycles? •In what decade will our understanding mature to the point where we can reliably predict these cycles into future decades?

•the storage, distribution, and transport of water in all its forms

•In what decade will we have in place the observation and modeling research capacity to reliably reconstruct the regional-to-global distribution of water and its role in the regional-to-global distribution of energy?•What are the theoretical limits in the prediction of regional fresh water availability, in what decade do we expect our research to approach these limits, and what are the key decadal achievements towards this capacity?

•the Earth's weather and climate, and its future condition

•In what decade will our observation and modeling research approach the theoretical limits of weather forecasting? (what is the theoretical limit for weather forecasting?) In what decade will we be able to transition this to operational use?•Is there a corresponding theoretical limit in climate forecasting? In what decade will our research have resolved the major factors driving uncertainty in climate forecasting? How many decades are we from approaching the theoretical limits in our research work? •In what decade do we think our climate observation and modeling research will reach the point were we have high confidence that we will not encounter any “climate surprises” (such as the sudden shutdown of the Gulf Stream thermohaline circulation)?

•the sources, sinks, and transformations of aerosols and atmospheric chemical species

•In what decade will our observation and modeling research capacity reach the point where we can reliably trace the atmospheric constituents of importance for climate impacts or air pollution to their original regional sources? •Can we identify by decade progressive steps towards achieving this capacity?

•the variability of the Solid Earth •In what decade will we demonstrate the research capability to reliably predict volcanic eruptions? In what decade will we be able to transition this to operational use?•In what decade will we demonstrate the research capability to reliably predict earthquakes? In what decade will we be able to transition this to operational use?

•the interaction between human systems and the Earth’s natural systems

•For the societal benefits identified for the U.S. IEOS and the international GEOSS, what (by decade) are the significant research accomplishments needed to achieve these benefits?•In what decade will we be able to document that the greatest uncertainty in forecasting the future state of the planet is the uncertainty in economics and human behavior? Is there a different answer for the major areas of climate, disasters, fresh water availability, etc.?


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Overall Prioritization Criteria

• Address the Research Challenges of:– Exploration and Discovery– Continuous Awareness– Developing and Maintaining Perspectives

• To Connect to Society’s Concerns through:– Enhanced Scientific Understanding– Enhanced Information and Capacity for Global Policy and Regional

Decision Support

• Not at all certain that I accurately captured the sense of the discussion during the March 29 conference call

• The three Co-Chairs took the action to work the overall prioritization criteria


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Overall Prioritization Criteria

(Draft from Waleed)

• Support policy-makers in their decisions– Meeting our role in CCSP and GEOSS– National applications– Potential to reduce uncertainty

• Clearly advances a field that is a benefit to society– Significance of the potential to make a major breakthrough combined

with social importance of the science question– Potential to reduce uncertainty– Linkages to multiple disciplines– Extent to which vital needs can be protected– Extent to which disruptions to life will be reduced

• Uniquely NASA– Extent to which the space vantage point allows achievements– Technology investments– Cross-matrix with exploration initiative


APIO Guidance on Roadmap Achievements Detail

• A series of charts (probably 6-10 total) that describe expected roadmap achievements in 3 time periods or phases:

– Near-term program (2005-2015) – Mid-term program (2015-2025)– Long-term program (2025 and beyond)– These are preferred timeframes to simplify integration - if there are other

breakpoints that fit more naturally for your roadmap, use those• For each phase, identify to the extent possible:

– Specific expected scientific, development, or exploration results (What we hope to achieve)

– Related investigations, major missions, or program elements (How we should plan to achieve it)

– Drivers for sequencing of key milestones, either relative or absolute– Identification of priorities or plans/criteria for prioritization– Options and key decision points

• Based on potential outcomes or discoveries from within this roadmap, or possible variation in needs from other roadmaps

• Anticipated timeframe or sequence of key decisions, and the factors that will go into each decision

2 charts with notes for each roadmap objective from each Subcommittee chair. Two charts with notes for integration. Diane Evans QA


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Exploration Roadmap Achievements

• About 2 charts that describe expected roadmap achievements in 3 time periods or phases:









Need in Input from Exploration Subcommittee


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Continuous Awareness Roadmap Achievements










Need in Input from Continuous Awareness Subcommittee


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Maintain Perspective Roadmap Achievements










Need in Input from Maintain Perspective Subcommittee


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Integrated Roadmap Achievements










Need to Develop Based on Subcommittee Inputs


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Major Implementation Pathway Options

• APIO Guidance:– Summarize major alternative pathways or options, and the

discoveries/developments or other factors which may lead us to choose one pathway or another

• Specific Earth Science and Applications from Space Issues:– Do we anticipate major scientific discoveries that would alter the

course of Earth science?• Do any emerge from the accomplishments identified?

– Are there major external events or drivers that could alter the course of implementation?

• Changing National Policy Emphasis (towards disasters, resource utilization, climate research, etc.)?

• Significant Commercial Investment (commercial remote sensing, space tourism, etc.)?

• An approach to documenting these that the Committee discussed at the La Jolla meeting was to develop alternate future scenarios


Roadmap Requirements

Key capabilities, dependencies on other roadmaps, assumptions

Human capital and infrastructure needs

Near-term priorities and gaps that should be addressed in upcoming NASA budget

APIO Target ~5 Pages


For Information in this DRAFT -- APIO Guidance on Roadmap Requirements

• Major needs from, dependencies on, and relationships to other strategic roadmaps -Azita to coordinate. D. Siegel (ESC), S. Solomon (SSE, Mars, Moon)

• Key required technical capabilities (prioritized where possible) and your team’s assessment of readiness and developments required - G. Johnston et.al.

– Include as much detail as possible on quantitative performance requirements, and the key milestones and cost of development programs to meet your needs

• Major required infrastructure elements and unique human capital or other needs - G. Johnston et.al.

• Where appropriate, tie these to the specific milestones, missions, developments, or timeframes identified in the previous section - G. Johnston et.al.

• Important: Include a one-page summary of the top 2-3 priorities from your roadmap that you feel represent significant gaps in NASA’s current program or investment plans - co-chairs integrate from inputs from subcommittee chairs

– This information will be provided to the cognizant NASA mission directorates• See following charts for first cut at input

1 chart per bullet with notes. 5 charts max. O. Figueroa QA


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Linkage Between Strategic Roadmaps

• Major needs from, dependencies on, and relationships to other strategic roadmaps -Azita to coordinate. D. Siegel (ESC), S. Solomon (SSE, Mars, Moon)

• Need inputs on this…

1 chart per bullet with notes. 5 charts max. O. Figueroa QA


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Key Required Technical Capabilities

• Underpinning Multi-Mission/Multi-Model Capabilities to:– Identify, prioritize, design, and develop observing and modeling systems

• Requires the capacity to assess and optimize the multi-objective benefits of new systems in the context of larger networks/ system of systems

• Includes the mission design and development facilities, methods, and tools to complement human capital capabilities in systems architecture and program/project management and implementation

– Deploy and operate observing and modeling systems and inter-system networks• Communications systems and navigation systems • Mission and network control systems• Observing system launch and deployment systems

– Identify and develop technologies to improve and enable new observing and modeling systems and inter-system networks

• New instrument technologies, computation and information technologies, supporting/ platform technologies, and system design/ implementation technologies

– Connect multiple observing and modeling systems into synergistic networks/ system of systems

• Sensorweb/ modelweb simulators and systems analysis capacity to advance the state-of-the-art in distributed collaborative observing and modeling

• Remaining actions:– prioritized where possible– team’s assessment of readiness and developments required - G. Johnston et.al.

– Where appropriate, tie these to the specific milestones, missions, developments, or timeframes identified in the previous section - G. Johnston et.al.


For Information in this DRAFT -- APIO Guidance on Infrastructure, Human Capital, and Other Needs

• Major required infrastructure elements and unique human capital or other needs - G. Johnston et.al.

• Where appropriate, tie these to the specific milestones, missions, developments, or timeframes identified in the previous section - G. Johnston et.al.

• Infrastructure Elements

• Agency human capital and infrastructure• Other unique requirements

• See following charts for first cut at input


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Infrastructure Needs

• Major required infrastructure elements – On-going availability within the Nation of multi-mission infrastructure for:

• Developing and manufacturing observation missions– Includes design centers, clean rooms, test chambers, etc.

• Launching (space-based) or deploying (Earth-based such as UAV) observing missions

– including available national launch capacity and international capacity to deploy validation measurement systems

• Operating missions– Infrastructure to coordination and control of distributed, collaborating observing and

modeling systems – Guidance, navigation, and communications infrastructure -- physical implementation of

communications and navigation system coupled to:» Future decisions on observation mission orbits and vantage points» Space-based relay vs. ground-based communications and/or navigation

architectures– On-going availability within the Nation of the computational and information

infrastructure to support distributed, collaborative modeling of the Earth, its major component systems, and their interactions

• Multiple, diverse levels of fidelity and cost to enable and encourage broad use for multiple science, applications, and education activities

• Remaining action:– Where appropriate, tie these to the specific milestones, missions,

developments, or timeframes identified in the previous section - G. Johnston et.al.


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Human Capital and Other Needs

• Agency human capital and infrastructure– Program and project implementation and management knowledge, expertise,

and tools• To accelerate the pace of discovery by implementing missions and systems more

quickly, more reliably, and more efficiently– System of systems scientific, engineering, and management knowledge,

expertise, and tools• to deal with the complexity of sensor-/ model-webs

• Other unique requirements– Human capital needs extend beyond the Agency:

• Systems of systems expertise within the academic community for integrated Earth observing and modeling

– Science and engineering• Expertise within government agencies and commercial entities to apply Earth

observing and modeling results – to support management and policy decisions, and – to provide valuable services and benefits

• Remaining action:– Where appropriate, tie these to the specific milestones, missions,

developments, or timeframes identified in the previous section - G. Johnston et.al.


Top Priorities

• Important: Include a one-page summary of the top 2-3 priorities from your roadmap that you feel represent significant gaps in NASA’s current program or investment plans - co-chairs integrate from inputs from subcommittee chairs

– This information will be provided to the cognizant NASA mission directorates


Roadmap Summary

A graphical depiction of your roadmap and a summary of major options and strategic decisions

APIO Target ~2 Pages


APIO Guidance on Roadmap Summary

• Prepare a 1-page graphical depiction of your roadmap in a rough timeline format - G. Johnston/Staff Team.

– Graphics can be very rudimentary (X’s and O’s are sufficient)– Show major options, branches, and decision points

• Prepare a 1-page text chart to accompany the above including:– Key agency strategic decisions– Factors that will drive the schedule/sequence of decisions– Identification of any specific dates by which certain milestones must

be achieved, and why those dates are significant


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Notional Roadmap Concept for Program Emphasis

(descriptive text)

• On-going opportunities for Exploration and Discovery• Sustained capacity to obtain and use the long-term measurements

needed to Maintain Perspective• Building and networking capacity for dynamic, Continuous

Awareness– System of systems approach to “awareness network”– Organized by “clusters” of program & investment emphasis reflecting

NASA and National priorities• rather than trying to integrate everything at once

– Initial suggestion on order of “clusters” (subcommittee input)• Water• Energy • Life/ecosystems • Solid Earth


EARTH SYSTEM:Water

AirLand/Ice

Biogeochemical

Time

DISCOVERY

PERSPECTIVE

CONTINUOUS AWARENESS

Integrated mission cluster

2005 2015 2025 2035

Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Notional Roadmap Concept for Program Emphasis

IMPROVED OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES


Other Information

Pointers to any available information on cost of roadmap elements

Cooperation possibilities and benefits

APIO Target ~1 Page


APIO Guidance: Other Information

• Include any available information on cost of major missions or program elements– Or provide pointers to relevant information

• Summarize key cooperation opportunities (e.g. international, commercial, other government) that may reduce cost or enhance performance/value of roadmap activities

Package will include 1-chart summary on Education from Roberta•Exact location in presentation to be determined•Gordon raised issue with APIO, and APIO may add topic in the standard outline


Placeholder for Education Slide


Back-up Slides/ Appendix Material


APIO General Principles for April 15 Pres.

• Each roadmap interim report is due 15 April and will be used for– Input to Integration Team

• Identification of important connections and synergies among roadmaps• Enables development and assessment of draft architectures• Preparation for Synthesis Workshops (May-June) leading to final architectures

– Capabilities Roadmaps guidance – Information for other Strategic Roadmaps– FY07 budget development– Information input to NRC review process in advance of 1 June roadmaps

• Clarification from APIO that the NRC information briefing is week of May 16 and may include work completed after the April 15 date

– Exceptions: SR-7 (shuttle) and SR-12 (Education) are due TBD• Format will be a viewchart format preview of the 1 June product

– Each chart should have an informal narrative PowerPoint Note to elucidate contents

– Approx. 20 pages total• Anticipate that the 1 June product will be a completed, narrative version of

the 15 April content in 30-40 pages plus appendixes– Plus a companion set of viewcharts that reflect final Roadmap content


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Disclaimer for the April 15 Interim Presentation

• The Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Committee met on March 16 & 17 and discussed the content and scope of this presentation

• The April 15 Presentation represents the work of NASA Staff based upon the editorial and inputs of individual Committee member and the established subcommittees

• This Interim report does not represent a consensus position of the Committee, as the schedule did not allow the Committee to meet and discuss as a whole this presentation

• The Committee anticipates coming to consensus on the content of this presentation and giving direction from the development of the June 1 document at its next meeting.


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Disclaimer for June 1 Report

• The Committee and staff anticipate that the final report developed as a result of its next meeting will identify notional mission priorities and anticipated accomplishments by decade.

• The implementation concepts for the measurements identified in this roadmap range in fidelity from carefully studied options to initial notional approaches.

• The pace and schedule for the development of this strategic roadmap did not allow for the extensive systems analysis to refine and validate the implementation reflected in the document.

• This initial strategic roadmap document represents a recommended conceptual framework for the future of Earth science and applications from space, but will require on-going analysis and validation over the coming years.

• (currently working with NASA Ethics Officers on this language) This strategic roadmap includes currently funded NASA investigations and their planned accomplishments for information purposes only

– NASA asked the Committee to assume that NASA will complete currently funded missions in the first decade of the Roadmap, including:

• missions in implementation that NASA has committed to complete• missions in formulation that have yet to pass their Mission Confirmation Review• assuming that NASA will find a flight opportunity for the Glory instrumentation

– The Committee did not prioritize or make recommendations concerning currently funded activities


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Compelling Roadmap Questions

• Exploration and Discovery– What environmental surprises may be on the horizon?– What new observations should we make today that future generations will find of great

value?– What are the places and processes we have never examined that may reveal new

information about how our planet works?– What are the observable interactions between life in the Earth’s environment that have

enabled the evolution and sustenance of life?– How can we combine information from the different disciplines to advance our

understanding of the Earth System and improve our predictive capabilities?

Science Goal 1: What are the mechanisms that contribute to sea level rise and how are they likely to behave in the future?

Science Goal 2: What are the the mechanisms and likelihood and of abrupt environmental changes and the range of variability in the climate system?

Science Goal 3: What are the processes that modify the Earth’s land surface and contribute to natural hazards?

Science Goal 4: What is the lateral and vertical distribution of terrestrial water storage and water quality on land; and the time scales of water mass redistribution in the global water cycle?

Science Goal 5: How is carbon is removed from atmosphere on decadal time scales, and how can we learn to predict it?

Science Goal 6: How is solar radiation is changing and what are the effects of these changes on life and the water and energy cycles

Science Goal 7: How does energy propagate from the Sun to the Earth’s surface, and back to interplanetary space, and what are its effects on the physical and biogeochemical systems that support life on our planet?



• Maintain Perspective– How has the Earth system changed in the recent past.. How will the

Earth system change

Science Goal 1: How can weather forecast duration and reliability be improved?

Science Goal 2: How can predictions of climate variability and change be improved?

Science Goal 3: How will future changes in atmospheric composition affect ozone, climate and global air quality

Science Goal 4: How will carbon cycle dynamics and terrestrial and marine ecosystems change in the future?

Science Goal 5: How will water cycle dynamics change in the future?Science Goal 6: How can our knowledge of Earth surface change be

used to predict and mitigate natural hazards?



• Continuous Awareness– How can we further our awareness of dynamic Earth system

phenomena from space?– What benefits do continuous streams of data enable in our

management of environmental systems?– What types of satellite and in situ observations will serve to inspire the

public to participate in continuous awareness?Science Goal 1: What is the current and projected cloud and aerosol distributions and properties and how are they affecting the

radiative balance of the atmosphere? Science Goal 2: What is the current and projected regional water availability? Science Goal 3: What is the current and projected ocean productivity and how will the major ocean currents be moving? Science Goal 4: What changes are occurring in regional land use and ecosystem health and what effects might be felt globally? Science Goal 5: What are the current and projected concentrations of atmospheric ozone (and precursors) and the impact on

transmitted UV radiation and radiative forcing? Science Goal 6: What are the current and projected ice coverage of glaciers and poles? Science Goal 7: Where do we see current movement in the Earth's crust and what are the implications? Science Goal 8: What are the crrent and projected regional air quality and how will the global circulation redistribute this? Science Goal 9: What is the current concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and where are the sources and sinks? Science Goal 10: What is the status of our beachesand coastal ecosystems? Science Goal 11: How can short-term local forecasts be improved by combining global and in-situ systems? Science Goal 12: Is the current weather part of the normal climate variability or the result of climate change? Science Goal 13: What episodic events can be monitored from space to provide early warning to decision making bodies? Science Goal 14: What space-borne measurements can revolutionize the way operational agencies make decisions? Science Goal 15: What space-borne measurements lend themselves inquiry and wonderment by the public (new; related to overall

Goal #3)?


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Prioritization Criteria by Roadmap Objective

• Exploration and Discovery prioritization criteria:– Increased priority for:

• Potential for revolutionary discoveries • First-of-a-kind mission • Addresses multiple fronts• Potential to move through Discovery/ Awareness/ Perspectives pipeline

faster– Decreased priority if:

• Modest improvement in capability• Measurements at MMI-4 or higher (spell out or define MMI-4)• Missions with scientific (not technical) precursors• Ground-based activities for support



• Continuous Awareness prioritization criteria:– Increased priority for:

• 4-D measurements of the Earth system • Combined in ‘threads’ or ‘clusters’ (focused sets of space/ ground

systems)• Ability to provide decision makers the data they need• Temperature-related measurements at high accuracy• Ground-based activities/ infrastructure for assimilation• Modeling capability of entire system

– Decreased priority if:• Independent measurements that are uncorrelated• First-of-a-kind mission with increased technical risk



• Maintain Perspectives prioritization criteria:– Increased priority for:

• Known key climate change variable• Synergy between multiple instruments/missions and models combined in

‘threads’ or ‘clusters’ (focused sets of space/ ground systems)• Measurements improving our predictive capabilities• Measurements narrowing our uncertainty• Ground-based activities to extract the maximum from existing data

records• Ground-based activities to extract the maximum potential from NPOESS

– Decreased priority if:• Covered by NPOESS or GOES-R• Already covered by international agreement to data share• Modest improvement in capability• First-of-a-kind mission with increased technical risk


For Information Only: Revised 1 June Roadmap Outline

1. Agency objective statement2. Flow-down to roadmap objectives3. Implementation framework with

• anticipated achievements• recommended major missions, program elements, R&D programs, etc.• relative priorities to deliver achievements

4. Milestones and options, with decision points and criteria5. Most critical inter-roadmap dependencies, technical capabilities,

and infrastructure

APPENDIXESA. National Policy Framework and External ConstituenciesB. Unique Education and Outreach Opportunities C. External Partnerships

i. USG Agenciesii. International Partners

D. Bibliography of Key Agency Documents and NRC Documents


External Constituencies and Corresponding NASA Roles: NASA’s Strength is in the Intersection

Aerospace

Innovation SocietalBenefits

Space Education/

Inspiration

Science

This is what we mean by

“as only NASA can”

Understand

InformExplore

49Earth Sci. & Appl. from Space Strat. Roadmap Interim Report (4/15/2005)

DRAFT, 4/4/2005

Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap National Policy Drivers

Context of National Priorities and International Programs

National Programs International Programs

Global Earth Observation

NSTC/CENR Earth Observation Subcommittee (EOS) U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (15 Agencies)

Group on Earth Observations (GEO) 55 countries, 33 international organizations

Climate Change Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 13 Agencies)Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP, 12 Agencies)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC)

Weather U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP, 7 Agencies)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) & THORPEX

Natural Hazards Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction (SDR, 14 Agencies)

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)

Sustainability CENR Subcommittee on Ecosystems World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD)

e-Government & Information Services

Geospatial One-Stop (GOS, 12 Agencies) and the Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC, 19 Agencies)

World Summit on the Information Society

CommercialRemote Sensing

U.S. Commercial Remote Sensing Space Policy (11 Agencies)

http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/



http://earthobservations.org/

http://www.climatescience.gov/

http://www.climatetechnology.gov/

http://www.ipcc.ch/

http://www.ipcc.ch/

http://box.mmm.ucar.edu/uswrp/

http://www.wmo.ch/

http://www.usgs.gov/sndr/

http://www.usgs.gov/sndr/

http://www.unisdr.org/

http://www.unisdr.org/

http://www.johannesburgsummit.org/

http://www.johannesburgsummit.org/

http://www.geo-one-stop.gov/

http://www.fgdc.gov/

http://www.itu.int/wsis/

http://www.itu.int/wsis/

http://crsp.usgs.gov/

http://crsp.usgs.gov/


DRAFT, 4/4/2005

NASA’s Vital Role: Front-End Research to Enable National Priorities & Societal Benefits

SOCIETALBENEFITS

Creation ofNew Knowledgeand Capabilities

ExplorationDiscovery

Development

NASANSF

EnvironmentalInformationProduction

NASANOAAUSGS

EnvironmentalInformation

Use

Govt AgenciesBusinesses

NGOsPeople

Environmental Information Infrastructure

Needs, Requirementsand CapabilitiesFeedback Loops

National PrioritiesPresidential Initiatives

Space Act

SPACEEXPLORATION

OUTCOMES

SCIENTIFICKNOWLEDGE

• Societal Benefits of Environmental Information– Effective Feedback Keeps the Pipeline Filled and Flowing



Notional (Not Completed) Traceability Charts


NASA Strategic Objective ties to Three Major Presidential Initiatives

Exploration Space-based Observations

Assimilation of New Measurements

Develop New Technology and Capabilities

Climate

Integrated Earth Observing System

Integrated Oceans Observing System

Transition from Research to Operations

Adv

ance

Ear

th S

yste

m S

cien

ce


Strategic Roadmap Challenges Link to NASA Strategic Objective

Head towards the Frontier Space-based Observations

Assimilation of New Measurements

Develop New Technology and Capabilities

Maintain Perspective

Continuous Awareness

Transition from Research to Operations

Adv

ance

Ear

th S

yste

m S

cien

ce

Enable Decision Support

Connect to Society’s concerns


Strategic Roadmap Questions Tie to Agency Strategic Planning

2003 Earth Science Enterprise Strategy: Science Focus Areas and predictive questions

Strategic Roadmap Questions

Atmospheric Composition: How will future changes in atmospheric composition affect ozone, climate, and air quality?

Climate Variability and Change: How can predictions of climate variability and change be improved?

Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems & Biogeochemistry: How will carbon cycle dynamics and terrestrial and marine ecosystems

change in the future?

Water & Energy Cycle: How will water and energy cycle dynamics change in the future?

Earth Surface & Interior: How can our knowledge of Earth surface change be used to predict and mitigate natural

hazards?

Weather: How can weather forecast duration and reliability be improved?

How do natural and anthropogenic influences drive the evolution of the Earth, and what are the subsequent implications for life on

Earth?

How do we use new knowledge and capabilities to explore and gain new perspective about Earth’s inner workings and its ability

to sustain life?

How are the Earth’s atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans, solid earth, and biosphere and their interactions changing, what drives such changes; and what do they mean for the long-term health

of the planet?

What space-based and supporting environmental observations should be develop that will enable models to accurately predict

short- and long-term change?

How can the unique vantage point of space be used to protect life and property and improve the quality of life on Earth today,

tomorrow, and beyond?


Strategic Roadmap Crosscutting Science Goals Tie to Prior Agency Strategic Planning

(only primary links shown)

Strategic Roadmap Crosscutting Science Goals: Explore and develop a predictive understanding of the Earth as a system of interacting systems, including…

biogeochemical cycles and the variety, forms, and interdependencies of life on the Earth

the storage, distribution, and transport of water in all its forms

the Earth's weather and climate, and its future condition

the sources, sinks, and transformations of aerosols and atmospheric chemical species

the variability of the Solid Earth

the interaction between human systems and the Earth’s natural systems








hazards?


Earth Science Applications


Strategic Roadmap Crosscutting Science Goals Tie to Prior Agency Strategic Planning

(add secondary links if time)















hazards?


Earth Science Applications


Strategic Roadmap Crosscutting Science Goals Link to Strategic Roadmap Questions










Earth?


to sustain life?


of the planet?






Strategic Roadmap Goals Link to Strategic Roadmap Challenges



Earth?


to sustain life?


of the planet?





Strategic Roadmap Challenges

Exploration and Discovery: Innovating at the Frontiers of Science

Establishing Perspectives: Building the Capacity to Acquire, Understand, and Use Observations across multiple scales in time and space

Continuous Awareness: Building the “Earth’s Nervous System” and Taking the Pulse of the Planet




Strategic Roadmap Goals Link to Strategic Roadmap Challenges

Strategic Roadmap Challenges

Exploration and Discovery: Innovating at the Frontiers of Science

Establishing Perspectives: Building the Capacity to Acquire, Understand, and Use Observations across multiple scales in time and space

Continuous Awareness: Building the “Earth’s Nervous System” and Taking the Pulse of the Planet











Strategic Roadmap Questions Trace from National Programs and Priorities

National Programs and Priorities: Strategic Roadmap Questions


Earth?


to sustain life?


of the planet?





Climate ChangeClimate Change Science Program (CCSP, 13 Agencies)

Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP, 12 Agencies)

Global Earth ObservationNSTC/CENR Earth Observation Subcommittee (EOS,15 Agencies)

U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS)

WeatherU.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP, 7 Agencies)

Natural HazardsSubcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction (SDR, 14 Agencies)

SustainabilityCENR Subcommittee on Ecosystems

Commercial Remote SensingU.S. Commercial Remote Sensing Space Policy (11 Agencies)

e-Government & Information ServicesGeospatial One-Stop (GOS, 12 Agencies) and the Federal

Geographic Data Committee (FGDC, 19 Agencies)



Committee Membership and Subcommittee Assignments


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Committee Membership

• Co-Chairs:– Orlando Figueroa, NASA Science Mission Directorate, co-chair– Diane Evans, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, co-chair– Charles Kennel, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, co-chair

• Members:– Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center– Leopold Andreoli, Northrop Grumman Space Technology– Walter Brooks, Ames Research Center– Jack Dangermond, ESRI– William Gail, Vexcel Corporation– Colleen Hartman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration– Christian Kummerow, Colorado State University– Joyce Penner, University of Michigan– Douglas Rotman, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory– David Siegel, University of California, Santa Barbara– David Skole, Michigan State University– Sean Solomon, Carnegie Institution of Washington– Victor Zlotnicki, Jet Propulsion Laboratory


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Committee Membership

• Coordinators:– Gordon Johnston, Mission Directorate Coordinator, Designated Federal Official– Azita Valinia, Advanced Planning and Systems Integration Coordinator

• Liaison Members– Roberta Johnson, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Liaison to the Education Strategic

Roadmap Committee– Joint Subcommittee (approx. 2 members from each) with the Sun-Solar System Connection Strategic

Roadmap Committee• Ex Officio Members

– Jack Kaye, Earth-Sun System Division– Ronald Birk, Earth-Sun System Division– George Komar, Earth Science Technology Office

• Staff– Tony Freeman, Systems Engineer, Jet Propulsion Laboratory– Additional NASA staff identified through the inter-center Earth-Sun System Division Advanced Planning

Team


DRAFT, 4/4/2005

Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Member Subcommittee Assignments

• Explorations– Waleed Abdalati*– David Siegel– Sean Solomon– Leo Andreoli– Bill Gail

• Maintaining Perspectives– Colleen Hartman*– Victor Zlotnicki– Joyce Penner

• Continuous Awareness– Doug Rotman*– Walt Brooks– Chris Kummerow– David Skole– Jack Dangermond

• SRM #9 Members of Joint 9/10 Subcommittee– Chris Kummerow– David Siegel