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On March 22, 2012, Cogent Company hosted DFW restaurant executives at an event at the Tower Club in downtown Dallas. The agenda for the event was as follows: Kick Off Presentation: Marc Hoppers Restaurant Industry Overview for Q1CY Cogent Restaurant Analytics and Data Discovery Solution Overview: Simon Saugier
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Right People, Right Business, Right Direc4on Seminar
Cogent Company March 22, 2012
Order of Events for Seminar
• 11a to 11:30a Arrivals, Networking and Lunch • 11:30a to 11:45a Marc Hoppers, Welcome and IntroducCons • 11:45a to noon Bill Schaffler, People Report/Black Box Intelligence • Noon to 12:30p Simon Saugier, Cogent AnalyCcs DemonstraCon • 12:30p to 1p Marc Hoppers, Discussion and Wrap Up
2 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
About Cogent Company
3 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Marc Hoppers Managing Partner Cogent Company
Who is Cogent Company?
4 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Select Client List
5 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Cogent Thinking
• Office 2003 Programming: Real World ApplicaCons • Pro ASP.NET 2.0 Website Programming • Mastering Office Programming with VSTO • Beginning MicrosoZ Word 2010
Books
• 5 Business Reasons for AdopCng the Windows Pla\orm -‐ CIO.COM • Easy Time & Billing with SharePoint, Outlook, & Excel (and VSTO tool) -‐ Devx.com • Repurpose SharePoint Services Data Using Excel's Spreadsheet XML -‐ Devx.com • Outlook the Way You Want It—Build Custom Outlook GUIs with WinForms & VSTO -‐ Devx.com • Create a Sales Dashboard using Excel, InfoPath and VSTO 2005 -‐ Devx.com • VSTO's Outlook IntegraCon Makes Building Managed Add-‐ins A Snap -‐ Devx.com • An Office Developer's Timesaver: Using VSTO 2005 to Integrate Excel and Access -‐ Devx.com
ArCcles (call for links)
• Southern Methodist University, Cox School of Business: Adjunct Faculty; Guest Lecturer, IT and OperaCons Management. • University of North Texas: Guest Lecturer in College of Business AdministraCon and English Department; Advisory Board, College of Business AdministraCon, InformaCon Technology & Decision Sciences Department • Member, University of North Texas Center for Decision and InformaCon Technology.
Academics
6 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Restaurant Industry Overview
7 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Bill Schaffler COO/CFO People Report/Black Box Intelligence
Restaurant Intelligence March 2012
About Their Sample Size • 32,000+ Units • 1 Million+ Employees • $35 Billion+ in Sales
8 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Year Over Year Stacked Results by Quarter
9 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Comp Sales Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL
FY 2009 -‐5.8% -‐6.1% -‐7.0% -‐4.8% -‐5.9%
FY 2010 -‐1.7% -‐0.5% +2.0% +2.0% +0.5%
FY 2011 +2.4% +2.1% +0.4% +1.4% +1.6%
FY 2012 +2.7%
TOTAL -‐2.4% -‐4.5% -‐4.6% -‐1.4% -‐3.8%
Source: Black Box Intelligence
Comp Store Sales & Traffic 12-‐Month Trend
10 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5% Comp Store Sales
Source: Black Box Intelligence
By Segment 12-‐Month Trend
11 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
-‐5.0%
-‐4.0%
-‐3.0%
-‐2.0%
-‐1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Fast Casual / Family Dining Casual Dining Upscale Casual / Fine Dining
Source: Black Box Intelligence
Comp Sales & Traffic Against Gas Prices
12 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Comp Sales Comp Traffic Retail Gas Prices
Source: Black Box Intelligence & Energy InformaCon AdministraCon US Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices
CER Restaurant Willingness to Spend Index Feb 2011-‐2012
13 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105 Overall 3 Month Rolling Average Base Level
Source: Consumer Edge Research Analysis
CER Willingness to Spend Index by Income Feb 2011-‐2012
14 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120 High Income Middle Income
Source: Consumer Edge Research Analysis
Comp Store Sales by Quar4les Feb 2011-‐2012
15 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 25th percentile Median
Source: Black Box Intelligence
Comp Store Traffic by Quar4les Feb 2011-‐2012
16 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6% 25th percentile Median
Source: Black Box Intelligence
Comp Sales and Traffic by Region Rolling 12 Months
17 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
2.05%
-0.73%
1.20% 1.30%
2.42%
2.92%
1.29%
2.23% 1.80% 1.74%
2.65% 2.23%
-0.75%
-2.20%
-0.54%
-1.34% -1.54%
0.40%
-1.87%
-0.86%
-1.77% -1.78%
-0.65%
1.45%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Sales Traffic
Source: Black Box Intelligence
Comp Sales and Traffic by Region Last Two Weeks
18 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
-‐10.0%
-‐8.0%
-‐6.0%
-‐4.0%
-‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Source: Black Box Intelligence
Regional View: Comp Sales DMA Rankings
19 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Rank Region Feb Jan 1 Tulsa 10.84% 9.12% 2 Milwaukee 9.94% 6.65% 3 Detroit 8.95% 7.62% 4 Wichita Hutchinson 8.66% 10.67% 5 Ft. Smith Fayetteville Springdale Rogers 8.60% 6.29% 6 Green Bay Appleton 8.44% 11.05% 7 Madison 8.37% 4.70% 8 Little Rock Pine Bluff 7.95% 5.41% 9 Ft. Wayne 6.93% -0.10%
10 Jackson MS 6.86% 4.08% 11 Indianapolis 6.75% 2.70% 12 Sherman Ada 6.48% 4.59% 13 Topeka 6.29% 13.39% 14 Oklahoma City 6.09% 7.51% 15 Memphis 5.97% 7.07% 16 Lubbock 5.97% 4.76% 17 Dallas-Ft. Worth 5.86% 5.71% 18 Albany Schenectady Troy 5.61% 8.11% 19 San Antonio 5.52% 5.35% 20 Harlingen McAllen Brownsville 5.44% 6.62% 21 Evansville 5.29% 7.10% 22 Houston 5.28% 2.51% 23 Cedar Rapids Waterloo Dubuque 5.24% 1.65% 24 Des Moines Ames 5.23% 2.47% 25 Cincinnati 5.18% 5.04% 26 Charlottesville 5.14% 7.51% 27 Minneapolis St. Paul 4.86% 3.06% 28 Cleveland Akron Canton 4.79% 2.77% 29 Wichita Falls Lawton 4.67% 8.80% 30 Springfield 4.53% 2.42% 31 Shreveport 4.52% 5.27%
Rank Region Feb Jan 32 Grand Rapids Kalamazoo Battle Creek 4.46% 4.44% 33 Tyler-Longview Lufkin Nacogdoches 4.33% 3.88% 34 Chicago 4.28% 1.03% 35 Birmingham Anniston Tuscaloosa 4.24% 5.58% 36 Nashville 4.23% 7.00% 37 Kansas City 4.06% 6.65% 38 Austin 4.04% 3.15% 39 Knoxville 3.88% 8.38% 40 Las Vegas 3.82% 3.68% 41 Ft. Myers Naples 3.82% 4.07% 42 Waco Temple Bryan 3.73% 3.03% 43 Augusta 3.69% 4.86% 44 Amarillo 3.64% 5.97% 45 Syracuse 3.37% 4.85% 46 Denver 3.34% 3.69% 47 Columbus GA 3.21% 0.18% 48 Columbia 3.14% 4.40% 49 Florence Myrtle Beach 3.11% 8.33% 50 Salt Lake City 3.04% 2.72% 51 Tampa St. Petersburg Sarasota 3.03% 3.00% 52 San Francisco Oakland San Jose 3.02% 1.79% 53 Colorado Springs Pueblo 2.98% 1.96% 54 Columbus OH 2.90% 3.66% 55 Palm Springs 2.80% 4.76% 56 Charleston 2.76% 1.77% 57 Greenville 2.75% 4.22% 58 Orlando Daytona Beach Melbourne 2.75% 3.53% 59 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 2.62% 3.21% 60 Springfield Holyoke 2.50% 4.69% 61 Albuquerque Santa Fe 2.49% 1.62% 62 Seattle Tacoma 2.49% -0.20% Source: Black Box Intelligence
Regional View: Comp Sales DMA Rankings -‐ con4nued
20 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Rank Region Feb Jan 63 Champaign Springfield Decatur 2.48% 3.88% 64 Dayton 2.35% 2.10% 65 Chattanooga 2.26% 4.42% 66 Omaha 2.12% 7.38% 67 Charlotte 2.11% 4.02% 68 Portland 2.11% 1.88% 69 Louisville 2.08% 4.30% 70 Mobile Pensacola 2.02% -0.20% 71 Atlanta 1.96% 5.68% 72 West Palm Beach Ft. Pierce 1.92% 3.13% 73 Tallahassee Thomasville 1.80% 1.01% 74 Pittsburgh 1.72% 7.95% 75 Huntsville Decatur Florence 1.69% 4.72% 76 Phoenix 1.64% 2.53% 77 St. Louis 1.62% 0.00% 78 Youngstown 1.55% 3.31% 79 Los Angeles 1.44% 3.11% 80 New Orleans 1.38% -1.00% 81 Roanoke Lynchburg 1.26% 3.82% 82 Greensboro High Point Winston Salem 1.22% 5.22% 83 Baton Rouge 1.15% -1.90% 84 Montgomery Selma 0.96% -1.50% 85 Raleigh Durham Fayetteville 0.95% 4.01% 86 Norfolk Portsmouth Newport News 0.89% 1.50% 87 Jacksonville Brunswick 0.77% 0.87% 88 Sacramento Stockton Modesto 0.42% -0.30% 89 Lexington 0.29% 4.81% 90 Richmond Petersburg 0.13% 3.86% 91 Fresno Visalia 0.06% 0.06% 92 Tucson Sierra Vista 0.04% 2.77% 93 San Diego -0.10% 1.13%
Rank Region Feb Jan 94 Harrisburg Lancaster Lebanon York -0.20% 3.53% 95 El Paso -0.40% 0.63% 96 Buffalo -0.50% 0.66% 97 Boston Manchester -0.60% 0.29% 98 New York -0.70% 3.87% 99 Bluefield-Beckley Oak Hill -0.90% 6.58%
100 Greenville New Bern Washington -0.90% 2.44% 101 Macon -0.90% -1.10% 102 Johnstown Altoona -1.00% 2.07% 103 Baltimore -1.20% 2.44% 104 Charleston Huntington -1.20% 4.15% 105 Tri-Cities -1.40% 3.08% 106 Hartford New Haven -1.60% 1.77% 107 Philadelphia -1.70% 3.97% 108 Rochester -1.70% -0.80% 109 Washington DC -2.60% 1.20% 110 Providence New Bedford -3.00% -0.70% 111 Savannah -3.90% -2.80% 112 Wilmington -4.30% -0.20%
Source: Black Box Intelligence
Management Turnover by Quarter Q2 2009 – Q4 2011
21 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Quick Service Fast Casual/Family
Casual Dining Upscale Casual/Fine
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11
Source: People Report
Hourly Turnover by Quarter Q1 2009 – Q4 2011
22 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100% 110% 120% 130%
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11
Quick Service Casual Dining Upscale Casual/Fine
Source: People Report
Black Box Sales Intelligence Sample Dashboard Comp Store Sales by Growth
23 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Black Box Sales Intelligence Sample Dashboard Weekly Trends
24 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
People Report Sample Dashboard Front of House Salary Intelligence
25 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Cogent AnalyCcs DemonstraCon
26 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Simon Saugier Managing Consultant Cogent Company
Introducing the Sandlot
• You’ve probably never seen The Sandlot as you drive down the street, but restaurant operators and franchisees, hoteliers, and retail operators will recognize many of the paZerns described in the following dashboards.
• Cogent Company consultants have aggregated our experience in the restaurant, hospitality, and retail verCcals to create two years of operaCng data history for The Sandlot. We have modeled all of the elements you would need to manage a restaurant in a analyCcs soluCon: • Sales, revenue, cost • Management and hourly staff costs and performance behavior • Item-‐level sales and performance informaCon • Unit and regional level performance visualizaCons
• The Sandlot analyCcs soluCon accommodates the needs of mulCple types of users, including execuCves, operaConal senior managers, regional managers, and unit managers.
• Finally, The Sandlot analyCcs soluCon is built on technology that allows it to run either in your data center or in the cloud, and it can run on PC or Mac desktops and laptops and Android or Apple tablets.
27 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Assessing Sales and Revenue
Using Dashboards to Iden4fy Trends Across Your Geographies…
Trends oten appear through interacCve visualizaCon where you hadn’t seen them in tradiConal Excel spreadsheets or reports.
Tracking Item-‐Level Performance to Improve Performance
Affinity or basket analysis, item performance, or seasonal-‐ or weather-‐related trends can guide markeCng and supplier decisions.
28 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Unit Comparisons and In-‐Unit Analysis
Understanding the Compara4ve Performance of Units…
IdenCfying the performance between units can help senior management idenCfy trends and act at mulC-‐unit levels.
Performance Within Your Units Can Guide Managers…
Giving unit managers the power to understand the performance at their unit can help them make changes to improve performance.
29 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Keeping Track of Your Talent
Managing Top and Boeom Talent…
IdenCfying and managing your best talent is key to success in any restaurant, hospitality or retail operaCon.
Keeping The Best Talent and Growing New Talent…
Understanding turnover at the unit, regional, etc., level can guide retenCon, promoCon, or separaCon acCons.
30 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Adjustments and Payments
Tracking Transac4ons Where You Don’t Make Money…
Knowing where you’re making money is important. Knowing where you’re not making money can help you make profitable decisions.
Monitoring Payment Types to Improve Performance…
Knowing how your customers are paying can guide vendor discussions and help you improve your customer experience.
31 © 2012 Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
Discussion
32 © 2012. Cogent Company. Proprietary and ConfidenCal.
For More InformaCon, Contact Marc Hoppers
Office: 214.341.1004 Email: [email protected]
www.cogentcompany.com