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The fourth generation of European-wide climate change impact assessments Hans-Martin Füssel Project manager – Climate change impacts and adaptation André Jol Head of Group – Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation Conference Our Common Future under Climate Change 7 July 2015 Paris (France)

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The fourth generation of European-wide climate change impact assessments Hans-Martin Füssel Project manager – Climate change impacts and adaptation André Jol Head of Group – Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

Conference Our Common Future under Climate Change 7 July 2015 Paris (France)

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The EEA is the EU body dedicated to providing sound,

independent information on the environment.

We are a main information source for those involved

in developing, adopting, implementing and evaluating

environmental policy, and also the general public.

The EEA mission

EEA clients: • European Commission, European

Parliament, Council of the European Union, EEA member countries

• Policy influencers: NGOs, business, media, advisory groups, scientists, debaters

• General public

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THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT STATE AND OUTLOOK 2015

http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer

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Climate-ADAPT: European Climate Adaptation Platform

http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu

• Supports governmental decision-makers developing climate change adaptation strategies, policies and actions

• Launched in 2012

• Partnership between EEA and the European Commission (DG Climate Action and Joint Research Centre)

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Earlier EEA reports on climate change and its impacts in Europe

2004 2008 2012

Changes over time: more indicators, growing emphasis on societal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (separate reports since 2013)

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Structure of 2012 EEA report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe

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Content and structure of the 2012 CCIV report

Executive Summary

Technical Summary

1. Introduction

2. Changes in the climate system

• Key climate variables (5)

• Cryosphere (6)

3. Climate impacts on environmental

systems

• Oceans and marine environment (5)

• Coastal zones (2)

• Freshwater quantity and quality (5)

• Terrestrial ecosystems (5)

• Soil (3)

(x): Number of indicators

4. Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health

• Agriculture (4) • Forests and forestry (2) • Fisheries and aquaculture • Human health (4) • Energy (1) • Transport • Tourism

5. Vulnerability to climate change

• River flooding, water scarcity and droughts

• Integrated assessment of vulnerability

• Cities and urban areas • Damage costs (1)

6. Indicator and data needs

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Policy purposes of EEA climate indicators

1. Tracing global climate change (raising awareness and informing climate change mitigation): e.g. global mean temperature, ocean heat content

2. Tracing regional climate hazards (informing climate risk management): e.g. regional sea level, extreme precipitation

3. Assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems and society: e.g. species distribution, agricultural phenology

4. Assessing the effectiveness of risk management: e.g. floods and health, losses from extreme events

Policy purpose has implications among others for the required spatial coverage and resolution of an indicator

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2016 EEA report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe

• Previous reports: 2004, 2008 and 2012

• Coordination by EEA

• Authors and contributors: • EEA and European Topic Centres (CCA, BD, ICM) • Joint Research Centre (European Commission) • World Health Organisation (Europe) • European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control • Other organisations

• Data sources: • International databases and reports • (European) research projects • Academic publications

• External Advisory Group and reviews

• Extent of 2012 EEA CCIV report: • 300 pages (↘) • 42 indicators (↘) • Ca. 120 maps and figures (↘)

2012 EEA report to be updated and improved. New report to be published in 2016.

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Changes from 2012 to 2016 EEA CCIV report

1. Refocus and moderately reduce the underlying indicator set (with a focus on policy relevance)

2. Include information on policy context for adaptation (mainstreaming in EU policies, referring to 2014 EEA report)

3. Improved presentation of information related to extreme climate and weather events (e.g. droughts)

4. Further information on society‘s vulnerability beyond indicators (e.g. European climate change vulnerability/risk assessments; cross-border impacts; regional case studies)

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New sections in the 2016 EEA CCIV report

1. Adaptation policies in Europe

2. Trends and projections for extreme climate and weather events

3. Ecosystems and their services under climate change

4. Damages from extreme weather events

5. Cross-sectoral climate change vulnerability assessments

• Socio-economic scenarios for Europe • Pan-European vulnerability assessments • Vulnerability assessments in European macro-regions • Vulnerability to cross-border impacts of climate change • Vulnerability of urban regions

6. Copernicus climate change service

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Continued gaps in the 2016 EEA CCIV report

•Some climate-sensitive issues are not covered due to:

•Insufficient data:

o industry and manufacturing,

o insurance,

o infrastructure (except transport),

o cultural heritage;

•Hard-to-quantify:

aesthetic impacts,

personal well-being;

•Speculative attribution:

• migration

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Thank you

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Climate Action

Action 6. Climate proofing the Common Agricultural Policy, Cohesion Policy, and the Common Fisheries Policy

Action 7. Making infrastructure more resilient

Action 8. Promote products & services by insurance and finance markets

Priority 3: Key vulnerable sectors

Action 4. Knowledge-gap strategy

Action 5. Climate-ADAPT

Priority 2: Better informed decision-making

Action 1. Encourage Member States to adopt Adaptation Strategies and action plans

Action 2. LIFE funding, including adaptation priority areas

Action 3. Promoting adaptation action by cities along the Covenant of Mayors initiative

Priority 1: Promoting action by Member States

The EU climate change adaptation strategy (2013)

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EEA activities on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

Climate- ADAPT portal Supported by a European

Topic Centre, see: http://cca.eionet.europa.eu/

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COUNTRY

COMPARISONS

GLOBAL

MEGATRENDS

EUROPEAN

BRIEFINGS

COUNTRIES &

REGIONS

SYNTHESIS

REPORT

Related content Related content

SOER2015 / European briefings/

Key observed and projected impacts from climate change for the main regions in Europe

Climate change impacts and adaptation

Climate change

impacts on

ecosystems

Water use and

water stress

Urban systems

and grey

infrastructure

Climate change &

related envi.

health risks

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Quality criteria for EEA indicators

1. Thematic and policy relevance: Sensitive to climate change, relevant for policy development (but note different policy purposes) and easily understandable

2. Full geographic coverage: Ideally Europe (EEA-33 or EEA-39) or other relevant area(s)

3. Appropriate geographical aggregation (where relevant): Countries, regional seas, etc.

4. Long time series: Depending on the topic (for climate change at least 30 years); possibly including projections (in particular for climate change)

5. Reliable data supply: Priority data flows or other institutional arrangement/guarantee

6. Clear methodology: Methodology is clearly described and repeatable

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Stakeholder survey on 2016 EEA CCIV report

Goals • Gain informal feedback on 2012 report and planned 2016 report

• Raise awareness of planned 2016 EEA CCIV report

Format • Sent to Commission experts, Eionet, former Advisory Group,

international organisations, European networks

• Conducted in September 2014

• 33 responses, including from 16 national governments

Topics • Use and usefulness of the 2012 EEA CCIV report

• Potential changes in the 2016 report

Key results • High satisfaction with 2012 EEA CCIV report • Majority of respondents prefers comprehensive 2016 report • Request to shift the focus somewhat from climate change to impacts • Further suggestions incorporated into project plan

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Main changes in indicators (to be confirmed)

New (+) Discontinued (–) Merged (≥)

Hail Permafrost soils Meteorological and hydrological droughts

Marine oxygen content

Marine phenology Plant and animal phenology

Forest composition and distribution

Lake and river ice cover

Plant and animal distribution

Water and food-borne diseases

Air pollution by ozone

Number of extreme events

Soil organic carbon

Soil erosion

Forest growth

Species interactions