Do ENSO modeling discrepancies affect the climate-carbon

feedback?

Ana Bastos

Célia M. Gouveia, Ricardo M. Trigo

Land-sink: present and future

Friedlingstein et al. 2014 J. Clim.

Land-sink: present and future

Cox et al. 2013 Nature

Land-sink and ENSO

NOAA

Impacts of DJF ENSO

Land-sink and ENSO

Bastos et al. 2013 JGR - Biogeosciences

Land CO2 uptake from CDIAC

Multiv. ENSO index

ENSO in CMIP5

Bellenger et al. 2014

ENSO in CMIP5

Bellenger et al. 2014

Pacific SST variability in ESMs

Nino 3.4 from ESMs

1) Variance explained 2) Amplitude 3) Frequency metric 4) Spatial configuration

ENSO e

Land CO2 uptake in ESMs

NBP e

Land-sink metric

Land CO2 uptake & ENSO

Land-sink metric vs ENSO metric

Land CO2 uptake & ENSO

SST variance explained by ENSO

Land CO2 uptake & ENSO

NBP variance and ENSO amplitude

Remarks

The discrepancies in the ENSO characteristics affect to some extent the representation of the global land CO2 sink; The models with bigger deviations from the reference land CO2 sink are the ones in which ENSO has a stronger contribution to SST variability in the Pacific… … and errors in the variability of the land-sink seem to be related to errors in the amplitude of modeled ENSO; Further research to investigate how the discrepancies in the ENSO signal affect convection and precipitation patterns in the tropical/sub-tropical regions within the ESMs.