2016 EEA report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe

Hans-Martin FüsselProject manager - Climate change impacts and adaptation

2015 EIONET Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation15–16 June 2015, Copenhagen

Previous EEA reports on climate change and its impacts in Europe

2004 2008 2012

Changes over time: more indicators, growing emphasis on societal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (separate adaptation reports since 2013)

Content and structure of the 2012 CCIV report

Executive Summary

Technical Summary

1. Introduction

2. Changes in the climate system• Key climate variables (5)• Cryosphere (6)

3. Climate impacts on environmental systems• Oceans and marine environment (5)• Coastal zones (2)• Freshwater quantity and quality (5)• Terrestrial ecosystems (5)• Soil (3)

(x): Number of indicators

4. Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health• Agriculture (4)• Forests and forestry (2)• Fisheries and aquaculture• Human health (4)• Energy (1)• Transport• Tourism

5. Vulnerability to climate change• River flooding, water scarcity

and droughts• Integrated assessment of

vulnerability • Cities and urban areas• Damage costs (1)

6. Indicator and data needs

EEA indicators on climate change and impacts (majority updated in 2014)

Category Indicators Category Indicators

Key climate variables Global and European temperature Temperature extremes Mean precipitation Precipitation extremes Storms

Soil Soil organic carbon Soil erosion Soil moisture

Cryosphere Snow cover Arctic and Baltic sea ice Greenland ice sheet Glaciers Permafrost

Agriculture • Growing season for agricultural crops• Agrophenology• Water-limited crop productivity• Irrigation water requirement

Oceans, marine environment, coastal areas

Ocean acidification Ocean heat content Sea surface temperature Phenology of marine species Distribution of marine species Global and European sea level rise

Forests and forestry • Forest growth• Forest fires

Freshwater quantity and quality

River flow River floods River flow drought Water temperature Lake and river ice cover

Human health • Floods and health• Extreme temperatures and health• Air pollution by ozone and health• Vector-borne diseases

Terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems

Plant and fungi phenology Animal phenology Distribution of plant species Distribution and abundance of animal

species Species interactions

Energy • Heating degree days

Vulnerability/risks • Damages from weather and climate eventsEEA web site:

http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/#c5=climate&c7=all&c0=10&b_start=0

Policy purposes of EEA climate indicators

1. Tracing global climate change(raising awareness and informing climate change mitigation): e.g. global mean temperature, ocean heat content

2. Tracing regional climate hazards (informing climate risk management): e.g. regional sea level, extreme precipitation

3. Assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems and society: e.g. species distribution, agricultural phenology

4. Assessing the effectiveness of risk management: e.g. floods and health, losses from extreme events

Quality criteria for EEA indicators

1. Thematic and policy relevance: Sensitive to climate change, relevant for policy development (but note different policy purposes) and easily understandable

2. Full geographic coverage: Ideally Europe (EEA-33 or EEA-39) or other relevant area(s)

3. Appropriate geographical aggregation (where relevant): Countries, regional seas, etc.

4. Long time series: Depending on the topic (for climate change at least 30 years); possibly including projections (in particular for climate change)

5. Reliable data supply: Priority data flows or other institutional arrangement/guarantee

6. Clear methodology: Methodology is clearly described and repeatable

Scientific and policy developments since 2012

• February 2013: Background Report to the Impact Assessment of the EU Adaptation Strategy (adopted in April 2013)

• November 2013: NMI/EASAC Report on extreme weather events in Europe

• March 2014: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Working Group II contribution)

• April 2014: Report “Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II project”

• March 2015: Country reports to Commission (Monitoring Mechanism)

• Continuous: Implementation of (Sub)National Adaptation Strategies and Action Plans (often including vulnerability/risk assessments)

• 2015: Report on PESETA-GAP project

• 2017: Potential Commission Impact Assessment (in connection with the potential revision of the EU Adaptation Strategy in 2017)

• From 2016/17 on?: Web portal and regular reports by the Copernicus Climate Change Service Delegated Entity (ECMWF)

• EU funded research projects: CLIPC, IMPACT2C, IMPRESSIONS, …

Objectives of the 2016 EEA CCIV report

• Present information on past and projected climate change and impacts on ecosystems and society (primarily through indicators)

• Identify systems, sectors and regions most at risk of climate change (in the context of other stressors)

• Highlight the need for adaptation actions

• Demonstrate how enhanced monitoring, information sharing and research can improve the knowledge base

• Identify changes in knowledge compared to previous report

2016 EEA indicator report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability (under development)

• Coordination by EEA

• Authors and contributors:• EEA and European Topic Centres (CCA, BD, ICM)• Joint Research Centre (European Commission)• World Health Organisation• European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control • Other organisations

• Data sources: • International databases and reports• (European) research projects and data centres• Academic publications

• External Advisory Group:Commission (incl. JRC), EEA Scientific Committee, ECMWF, WHO, ECDC, regional conventions, member countries, etc.

• Reviews:• Advisory Group• Eionet• Further experts

2012 EEA report to be updated and improved.

Stakeholder survey on 2016 EEA CCIV report

Goals•Gain informal feedback on planned 2016 report•Raise awareness of planned 2016 EEA CCIV report

Format• Sent to Commission experts, Eionet, former Advisory Group,

international organisations, European networks•Conducted in September 2014•33 responses, including from 16 national governments

Topics•Use and usefulness of the 2012 EEA CCIV report•Potential changes in the 2016 report

Key results• High satisfaction with 2012 EEA CCIV report• Majority of respondents prefers comprehensive 2016 report• Shift focus (somewhat) from climate change to impacts• Further suggestions incorporated into project plan

Changes from 2012 to 2016 EEA CCIV report

1. Refocus and moderately reduce the underlying indicator set (with a focus on policy relevance)

2. Include information on policy context for adaptation (mainstreaming in EU policies, referring to 2014 EEA report)

3. Improved presentation of information related to extreme climate and weather events (e.g. droughts)

EEA expert workshop was held 18–19 March 2015

4. Further information on society‘s vulnerability beyond indicators (e.g. European climate change vulnerability/risk assessments; cross-border impacts; regional case studies)

New sections in the 2016 EEA CCIV report

o 1.4: Adaptation policies in Europeo 3.1: Ecosystems and their services under climate changeo 4.1: Damages from extreme weather eventso 5: Cross-sectoral climate change vulnerability assessments• Socio-economic scenarios for Europe• Vulnerability across Europe• Vulnerability to cross-border impacts• Vulnerability in European macro-regions• Vulnerability of urban regions

o 6.2: Copernicus climate change service

Main changes to indicator set

New (+) Discontinued (–) Merged (>)

Hail Permafrost soils Meteorological and hydrological droughts

Marine oxygen content Marine phenology Plant and animal phenology

Forest composition and distribution

Lake and river ice cover

Plant and animal distribution

Water and food-borne diseases

Air pollution by ozone

Extreme weather events with impacts

Soil organic carbon

Soil erosion

Forest growth

Species interactions

Continued gaps in the 2016 EEA CCIV report

•Some climate-sensitive issues were (are) not covered due to:• Insufficient data:

o industry and manufacturing, o insurance, o infrastructure (except transport), o livestock production, o cultural heritage;

• Hard-to-quantify:

aesthetic impacts,

personal well-being;• Speculative attribution:

• migration

Time schedule and next steps

2015 MilestoneMar Phase 1 –

Project preparation- Expert workshop on extreme weather events (18-19 March)- First meeting of Advisory Group (26 March)

Apr Phase 2 – Preparefirst draft report

- EEA visit to JRC-IES (14/15 April)- Second lead authors meeting (28 April)

Aug First draft (31 July):- Draft assessments and figures for all indicators- Annotated outlines of other chapters

Sept - Review of first draft by Advisory GroupOct Phase 3 – Prepare

second draft report- Second meeting of Advisory Group (13 October)- Third contributors meeting (week of 26 Oct)

Dec Second draft report:- Updated draft assessments and figures for all indicators - Full text for all chapters

2016Jan/ Feb

Phase 4 – Preparefinal draft report

- Extended Eionet Review (NFPs, NRCs, Advisory Group, other experts)

Mar - EEA contributors meetingApr Phase 5 –

Production and publication

- Final draft report sent for language editingMay/Jun

- All Graphs and maps completed- Final report sent for lay-out

Sep - Release of printed publication- Indicators published

Topics for discussion

1. Scope and structure of the report

2. Indicator selection

3. Relevant information beyond indicators

Thank youSee for more information:

http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climatehttp://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/

http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer