ROLAC Priority Areas:Disaster Risk Reduction

Germán Poveda

Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, ColombiaAcademia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y

Naturales

Workshop of ICSU Focal Points in Latin America and the CaribbeanUniversity of Panama, Panama City

March 9th-10th, 2015

Natural Hazards & Unnatural Disasters • Latin America naturally is a prone-hazard

territory; Weak scientific research; Institutional weakness.

• 9 out the world’s top 20 countries most exposed to disaster-led economic impacts are in the region. 

• Disasters in LAC: Drag down development and threaten the region’s social and economic gains.

• Price tag: Over US$2 billion annually – Costly option of the region (World Bank).

From Emergency Response to Prevention

• Reducing vulnerability is key to these efforts in a region which has seen its share of disasters increase over the years, partly as a result of changes in weather patterns.

• Exposure to cyclones and earthquakes will double for Latin American populations, from current 700 million people to 1.5 billion people by 2050 (Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters Report).

Urbanization – Increasing Risks

• Over 80% population lives in cities. • Focus on: Improving urban planning,

infrastructure and building safety.• Reinforcing drainage systems to reduce

flooding, storm and health threats.• Installing early warning systems, conducting

public preparedness drills.• Adopting measures to adapt to the increasing

impact of climate change.

Central America and the Caribbean:Destructive power of hurricanes have been in the

increase in the last 30 years (Emanuel, 2005)

Increase power of hurricanes is associated with warming of tropical oceans !

More Hydro-Meteorologic Extreme Events?

Two “Droughts of the Century” in Amazonia (2005 and 2010)

Courtesy: C. A. Nobre

More frequent ENSO events? foto: Juca Martins

fonte: NOAA

Atypical Phenomena: Hurricane Catarina, March 2004 - First and only hurricane in Brazil

Hurricane Catarina (March 2004) Image NASA Courtesy: C. A. Nobre

Deforestation in Colombia: Risks and Socio-Environmental Vulnerability

+ =

Observed Impacts of Climate Change(Magrin et al, Ch.27, AR5 IPCC, 2014)

Observed Impacts of Climate Change(Magrin et al, Ch.27, AR5 IPCC, 2014)

The Role of Science• Research on Natural Sciences for Risk

identification: Hydrology, Climatology, Meteorology, Oceanography, Seismology, Vulcanology, Geomorphology, Soil Sciences,...Tons of work to be done!

• Prevention and Mitigation: Measuring, Modelling, Forecasting and Prediction.

• Land Use & Land Change; Territorial Planning and Management.

• The need to couple and involve Natural and Social Sciences!

Muchas Gracias!