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Presentation at workshop: Reducing the costs of GHG estimates in agriculture to inform low emissions development November 10-12, 2014 Sponsored by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
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EX-ANTE CARBON –BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT)
PRESENTATION OF THE TOOL AND SOME APPLICATIONS
FAO EX-ACT Team Bockel (FAO), Bernoux (IRD), Grewer (FAO), Schiettecatte (FAO),
Zing(FAO)
EX-ACT Training • FAO/CCAFS Conference • 12 November 2014
Outline
Presentation of the tool
Role of the tool
Why using EX-ACT?
The structure and logic of the tool
Outputs
EX-ACT Applications
Worldwide visibility
Some examples in diverse countries
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
I. Introduction of the
EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT)
EX-ACT Training Workshop
What is exactly EX-ACT?
An Excel based tool to quantify the amount of GHGs released or sequestered from activities in the AFOLOU sector
EX-ACT leads policy officers & project designers to elaborate different development scenarios for the AFOLOU sector:
A “business-as-usual” scenario -> in absence of any intervention
A “policy/project scenario” -> strengthening targeted & sustainable development
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Building development scenarios
Two alternative scenarios are specified over time
For a set of variables concerning land use and management practices
Time (years)
Implementation phase
With project
Without project
Capitalization phase
Difference used to compute the final C balance in tons CO2 equivalent
Var
iab
le c
on
sid
ere
d
(ha
of
lan
d u
se, n
um
ber
of
catt
le h
ead
s,…
)
x0
x1
x2
3 different dynamics of change (adoption) of practices
Benefits of the project
OLU
Land-use change
Deforestation
OLU
Af/Re-forestation
OLU OLU
Other LUC
Forest degradation
Annual crops
Management practices
Rice
Grassland
Livestock Production
Inputs Other
investments
Perennial crops
Organic Soils Mgmt
-Different areas of land uses and land use changes in ha
-Management practices (residue burning, improved agronomic practice, nutrient management, organic management, tillage management)
-Quantities of inputs used
-For livestock, evolution of herd
- Energy consumption
- Investments in infrastructure
Activities foreseen … that may impact on mitigation (GHG reduction/releases)
What is the current situation ?
What would happen in the future if the project
is not implemented ?
What is expected in the future if the project is
implemented ?
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
A first look at main data needs
The structure and the logic of EX-ACT
Project activities
(identification of expected land use and practices changes)
Project Description
Carbon balance
Climate
Continent
Soil
Duration
Deforestation Afforestation and Reforestation
Forest degradation Non forest land use change
Annual crops Perennial crops
Irrigated rice Grasslands
Exploitation of organic soils Livestock
Inputs Other investments
Matrix (Synthesis of land
use and land use changes)
-Describe vegetation/animals/inputs concerned
-Describe main management practices
-Area concerned
EXCEL File
-Start situation
-Future without project
-Future with project
I
N
P
U
T
S
N
E
E
D
E
D
Tier 1: IPCC coefficients
Tier 2 : ad-hoc
Land-based system
Mainly IPCC methodology 2006
Dynamics of change
The implementation phase defines in EX-ACT the period from start to finalization of an activity
Any activity may be implemented with a different pace over time
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Ab
solu
te C
han
ge
(x1-x
0)
t0 t1
“Immediate” “Linear” “Exponential”
t0 t1 t0 t1
Time (years)
Default option in Tier 1
3 different dynamics of change (adoption) of practice
Main logic of EX-ACT
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Takes into account activities
that impact GHG fluxes (emissions and sinks)
Deforestation, A-Re/forestation, forest degradation, Restoration of grasslands, livestock, cultivation of annual crops, cultivation of perennial crops, fertilization of crops, installation of building, installation of irrigation systems...
CO2, CH4, N2O
from and to different pools
above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, soil, litter and dead wood
EMISSIONS STOCKS
Positive result : There are more emissions
Negative result: There are less emissions
MITIGATION !
Carbon balance in t of eq-CO2
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
The Gross Results of a specific scenario are defined as the overall impact from all GHGs expressed in
CO2 equivalents that were emitted or sequestered due to its implementation.
The Carbon-Balance is defined as the marginal difference in Gross Results between the project
scenario and the business-as-usual scenario.
Gross results
• Emissions: 100 000 t 30 000 t
• Sequestration: -20 000 t -50 000 t
Component of Gross fluxes
the project Without With Balance
All GHG in tCO2eq
Positive = source / negative = sink
Land Use Changes
Deforestation 70,000 25,000 -45,000
Afforestation -10,000 -20,000 -10,000
Other 0 0 0
Agriculture
Annual 10,000 -5,000 -15,000
Perennial -10,000 -15,000 -5,000
Rice 0 0 0
Grassland & Livestocks
Grassland 0 0 0
Livestock 15,000 5,000 -10,000
Degradation 5,000 -10,000 -15,000
Inputs & Investments 0 0 0
Total 80,000 -20,000 -100,000
Gross results
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
30
-50
-20
100
-20
80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Emissions Sequestration TOTAL
t C
O2
-eq
with
without+ =
The Carbon balance
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Component of Gross fluxes Gross fluxes
the project Balance
Without With
tCO2eq tCO2eq
Land Use Changes
Deforestation 70,000 25,000 -45,000
Afforestation -10,000 -20,000 -10,000
Other 0 0 0
Agriculture
Annual 10,000 -5,000 -15,000
Perennial -10,000 -15,000 -5,000
Rice 0 0 0
Grassland & Livestocks
Grassland 0 0 0
Livestock 15,000 5,000 -10,000
Degradation 5,000 -10,000 -15,000
Inputs & Investments 0 0 0
Total 80,000 -20,000 -100,000
_ =
The Carbon balance
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
-20
80
-100 -120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
with without C balance
t C
O2
-eq
The methodology behind the tool
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
The methodology behind the tool
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Other Coefficients
Results utilization
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Identification of project & policy components with specific benefits for GHG mitigation
In combination with cost data: Specification of marginal abatement cost curves that identify the most cost-effective mitigation measures
Application for funding from climate change facilities
II. Selected Applications of EX-ACT
EX-ACT Training Workshop
Current use of the tool: Examples of EX-ACT appraisals
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Current use of the tool: Examples of EX-ACT trainings
One tool, several potentials
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Food security and agriculture intensification
project
Tanzania
Putting forward : -Importance of realistic adoption rates - Externalities of projects
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Objective: Increase agricultural production and productivity Targets: 2.5 millions rice and maize farmers 3 main project activities: - improved agronomic practices (improved seeds) - improved nutrient management - stop of burning crop residues Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 7+13 years
t CO2-e Maize Irrigation Irrigated rice Inputs Total
Carbon balance -12.616.561 235 2.607.667 4.187.055 -5.821.604
Carbon balance ha-1 -5,5
Carbon balance ha-1 y-1 -0,28
t CO2-e Maize Irrigation Irrigated rice Inputs Total
Carbon blance (CB) -8.353.397 235 2.607.667 4.187.055 -1.558.440
Carbon balance ha-1 -1,5
Carbon balance ha-1 y-1 -0,07
Accelerated Food Security Project in the United Republic of Tanzania
Scenario 1: Very high adoption rates
Scenario 2: Moderately high adoption rates
27%
29%
29%
15%
conventionnel
improved 1: agronomic+nutrient+no tillage+noburning
Improved 2 : nutrient+no burning
Improved 3: nutrient
One tool, several potentials
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Watershed Development Project
Madagascar
Putting forward : - The mitigation benefits of healthy watersheds - The role of the Carbon market - Potential to generate environmental employment
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Objective: Establishing irrigated agriculture & promoting forested watersheds Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 10+10 years
T Eq-CO2
Reducing deforestation
Forestation Agroforestry Annual crops
Rice crops
Restoring grasslands
Inputs Land use
change
Other investments
Total
Carbon balance -628907 -989278 -183225 -277879 -48612 -146396 91148 -188444 1463 -2370130
Carbon Balance.ha-1 -21.0
Carbon Balance.an-1.ha-1 -1.05
Carbon price constant price
US$/ton
Total public value
million US$
Project NPV
million US$
Internal IRR
Without value 9.1 14.7%
valued at 3.5 8.3 11.6 15.8%
2010 → 2020 from 2 to 10 20.4 13.9 16.5%
2010 → 2020 from 2 to 20 38.7 17.8 17.7%
At low carbon price of US$ 3.5
Annual Equiv
Carbon value per ha US$ 3.7
Carbon value per farmer US$ 14
Equiv Carbon financial rent per village US$ 1400
Equiv carbon financial rent per watershed US$ 104 000
Potential employment generation in the area of Paid Environmental Services (PES) through regular monetary inflows from carbon payments
Irrigation and watershed management programme in Madagascar
Project Carbon Balance
Role of Carbon Payments
One tool, several potentials
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Rice value chain analysis
Rice in Madagascar
Putting forward : -Importance of adapted rice management practices
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Current annual emissions: 12.9 Million tons of CO2eq
4.8 kg of CO2eq per kg of paddy 7.2 kg of CO2eq per kg of rice
Methane production of aquatic rice (67%) Deforestation effect (29%) Persistence of hilly S&B rice (tavy)
Rice production in Madagascar
Towards an Upgrading scenario for 2003-2020
The upgraded scenario will allow to fix 5.6
million tons of CO2eq/year between
2003-2020
-Contuniously flooding rice management
-Laissez aller policy
letting S&B increase by 3.1%/year
-Switch of 300000 ha to intermitted flooding and non flooded preseason
- improved organic amendment
- Stop any increase of S&B rice
- Net increase of fertilizers used
=> 45% due to ↘CH4 (from continuously to intermitted flooding)
=> 54% linked with
reduction of deforestation due to
tavy
One tool,
several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Watershed Development
Food Security and Sustainable
Intensification Forest Management
Projects
www.fao.org/tc/exact
Sustainable Land Management
Conservation Projects
Land Rehabilitation
Thank you!
• Website: www.fao.org/tc/exact
• E-mail: [email protected]
• EX-ACT team: – Martial Bernoux, [email protected]
– Louis Bockel, [email protected]
– Uwe Grewer, [email protected]
24/06/2010
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24/06/2010
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24/06/2010
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24/06/2010
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