A New Innovation to Enable NMS Provide Climate Information at Local Level

Tufa Dinku tufa@iri.columbia.edu

Outline

I.   ThevalueofClimateData

II.   ChallengestoAvailabilityClimateData

III.   TheENACTSApproachIV.  WhatisNext

•  PuCngobservedandanEcipatedclimateintocontext;

•  Assessingclimate-relatedbaselinerisks;

•  Understandingthenatureofclimatevariabilityandtrends;

•  UnderstandingtheimpactsofclimateonagriculturalproducEon;

•  ImprovingcropproducEonforecastsforagriculturalplanningandfoodsecuritymanagement;

•  Index-basedagriculturalinsurancethatallowsfarmerstospreadrisk;

•  ….

I.TheValueClimateData

II.ChallengestoAvailabilityofClimateData

•  NumberofweatherstaEonsnotadequateovermanypartsAfrica

•  MoststaEonsarelocatedalongmainroads

èLimitedavailabilityclimateinformaEonandservicestotheruralcommunity

•  SeriousgapsinobservaEons(missingdata)

•  QuesEonabledataquality•  Limitedaccessanduseoftheavailabledata

Declining/InterruptedObservaEons

Declining investment Civil unrest

Declining volunteer stations

Whataboutgloballyavailabledatasets?•  MostoftheglobalproductsthemselvesdependonnaEonal

observaEon:§  Thereforesufferfromthethesameproblem:

Average (2001 to 2010) number of stations per 100km X 100km grid box used by GPCC gridded rainfall product

WhataboutgloballyavailabledatasetsTheglobaldatasetsmaynotrepresentlocalfeatureswellbecauseofspaEalresoluEonsor/andinsufficientobservaEons.

Station Satellite

III.TheENACTSApproach

StaEon Satellite

Combined

Combining station data with global proxies: Rainfall

Steps1.   Assessavailabledata 2.Performqualitycheck

3.Merging

ENACTSOutputs

•  Built capacity of NMS

•  Quality controlled stations data

•  Over 30/50-years of rainfall and temperature data for every 4km grid across each country:

o  Now data available where there are no stations

AdvantagesofENACTSData

Rainfall Stations used in ENACTS

Rainfall Stations available globally

AdvantagesofENACTS-basedproducts

CMAP ENACTS

ENACTSismuchmorethanjustdata:TheThreePillarsofENACTS

Improve Availability •  Build capacity of NMHS •  Quality Control station data •  Combine station data with proxies •  Improve seasonal forecast

E N A C T S

Enhance Access •  Install IRI Data Library

• Develop online tools for data analysis and visualization

•  Create mechanisms for data sharing

Promote Use Engage users:

•  Raise awareness •  Build capacity of users to understand and use climate info •  Involve users in product development

ImprovingAccess:MapRooms

ImprovingAccess:ClimateAnalysisTool

Monthly mean TMax

ImprovingAccess:ClimateMonitoringMaproom

From left to right: dekadal rainfall, dekadal rainfall anomaly, cumulative(since the start of the current season) anomaly, and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)

Dekadal rainfall Dekadal anomaly Cumulative anomaly SPI

ImprovingAccess:ClimateMonitoringTool

Probability of wet OND season during El Nino

ImprovingAccess:ClimateForecastTool

i. Explore potential impacts of ENSO/IOD phases

ImprovingAccess:ClimateForecastTool

ii.Translatesseasonalforecastfromterciletorainfallamounts

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MoreOutputs

•  Installation of the IRI Data Library at NMHS o  A powerful tool for generating climate information

•  Unprecedented online access to information products: o  Satisfies the needs of many users o  Overcomes (partly) the challenges of data access

•  Engagement with user communities

ENACTS Countries

ENACTS Countries: Ethiopia Gambia Ghana Madagascar Mali Rwanda Tanzania Zambia Kenya Uganda Malawi

WhatisNext?

2. Expand ENACTS to the rest of Africa

1. Strengthen ENACTS where it has been implemented Ø Generate daily climate time series and products

Ø Add more climate variables (RH, PET/ET, sunshine…)

Ø  Add sector-specific Maprooms: Agriculture, Water, Disaster, Health, …

Ø  Improve accuracy, spatial resolution and presentation of seasonal climate forecasts

Tufa Dinku tufa@iri.columbia.edu

web: iri.columbia.edu

@climatesociety

…/climatesociety

Thank You