SNEAPA 2013 Thursday b2 10-30_autonomous vehicle ppt10-11-13

Autonomous Vehicles: Riding

“Driver’s Side” is the New

“Shotgun”Impacts on Planning and Development

Southern New England APA Conference 10/17/2013

Gino Carlucci AICP, Sherborn Town Planner and Planning ConsultantEric Halvorsen AICP, Transportation Planner, Metropolitan Area Planning CouncilTom Houston AICP, P.E., President, PSC

Who’s Working on Autonomous Vehicles?

Google

Nissan

Ford

BMW

Toyota

Audi

Mercedes-Benz

Current TechnologyAdaptive Cruise Control

Vehicles change speeds automatically using sensors

Parallel Parking Just sit behind the wheel and let the car position

itself

Lane Detection Cars that can sense drifting on the road and

correct for it

Early Braking Systems Vehicles sense obstacles to the front and rear and

“step on” the brakes faster than a human can respond

Testing So Far

Google self-driving cars have completed more than 300,000 miles of testing without a single accident under computer control

This is almost twice as good as the average driver according to Federal Highway Administration statistics

Projections

“You can count on one hand the number of years it will take before ordinary people can experience this”

- Google co-founder Sergey Brin

Projections

“I could sleep in my driverless car, or have an exercise bike in the back of the car to work out on the way to work”

- Bryant Walker Smith

Center for Automotive Research at Stanford

Projections

Autonomous vehicles “will account for up to 75 percent of cars on the road by the year 2040”

- Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

Projections

“What automation is going to allow is repurposing, both of spaces in cities, and of the car itself.”

- Ryan Calo, University of Washington School of Law

Legal IssuesSagan reference

CA, FL NV

Liability etc.

California

Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill into law that has California adopting rules and regulations for operating driverless cars in April 2013.

The “operator” can now be “the person who causes the autonomous technology to engage” even if not sitting in the driver’s seat.

Nevada

Legislature enacted regulations to allow for testing and operating autonomous vehicles in February 2012. Two people must be present: behind the wheel

and in the passenger seat.

Current Car CultureConsider

Dodger Stadium Fenway Park

Travel Trends/Car Usage

Source: Federal Highway Administration, 2011, 2009 National Household Travel Survey

Inefficiency of Dominant Auto Use

Cars spend up to 90-95% of the time parked

NHTSA estimates 30% of driving in business districts is spent looking for a place to park

Victor Gruen estimates that each car needs 3 or 4 parking spaces elsewhere in addition to one at home (Donald Schoup, 2005 The High Cost of Free Parking)

Land Use Impacts

Accurate measures of urban land devoted to cars is difficult to obtain, but estimates have ranged from 30% to 50% in most cities and up to two-thirds in some (Schoup, 2005)

Harvard researchers estimate that up to a third of land in some cities is for parking alone.

A typical parking requirement for office space of 4 per 1000 square feet means that a three story office

building with a footprint of 1000 square feet needs more than three times its footprint for parking (12 x

300 ft2 = 3600 ft2).

Changes with Autonomous Vehicles

Car ownership is no longer necessary as car sharing becomes the dominant mode

The need for parking and storing cars is reduced dramatically

Space formerly used for parking gets repurposed

Car SharingRemoving need for driver also removes need to

keep cars parked 90% of the time.

Zipcar, Flightcar, Uber, Hubway, etc. represent symbiotic trends that meld perfectly with autonomous vehicles

One model is cell phone use – one could subscribe for unlimited use, fixed amount of time, or pay per ride.

Zipcar

As of July 2013, the company had more than than 810,000 members and offers nearly 10,000 vehicles throughout the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Spain and Austria, making Zipcar the world's leading car sharing network.

Hertz on Demand, Enterprise's WeCar, UHaul's Uhaul Car Share, and Daimler's Car2Go are copycat services.

Uber – Flightcar-Kidcar Uber: “By seamlessly connecting riders to drivers

through our apps, we make cities more accessible, opening up more possibilities for riders and more business for drivers.”

Flightcar: “FlightCar lets people parking at the airport rent their vehicles out to other travelers. Every rental is insured up to $1 million, and every renter is pre-screened. Depending on the type and model year of the vehicle, you can also make up to $20/day in cash! “

Kidcar: “Kid Car NY is the ONLY car service in New York that provides safe transport for children by providing specially trained drivers in kid-friendly, luxury minivans with properly-installed car seats appropriate for the child's age and weight.”

Reduced Parking

Elimination of Car Storage

Lessons For PlannersBe aware of trend

Design sites with future potential in mind (building location and parking lot design)

Identify redevelopment opportunities in master planning

Address potential repurposing of sites and garage space

Stairway to Heaven

Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run there's still time to change the road you're on.



“Shotgun”Benefits for Public Transportation



Changing Demographics

People aged 16 – 34 drove 23% fewer miles in 2009 than in 20011

In 2011, 86 percent of driving-age Americans held driver’s licenses, the lowest percentage in 30 years1

1 US PIRG, A New Direction, Spring 2013

Millennials are driving changes in auto ownership, licensing, and vehicle miles traveled.


Chart Source – The Atlantic, Jordan Weissman, July 2012.

Changing DemographicsBoston-area cities, large and small, are

seeing increases in populations 55 and over

Quincy, MA Melrose, MA

Changing DemographicsTechnology is assisting with shrinking

automobile ownership


The percentage of Americans living in suburbs increased from 23 percent in 1950 to 50 percent in 20002

2 US PIRG, A New Direction, Spring 2013

While trends do show a movement back to urban areas, there are still large numbers of residents living in suburban and rural areas.

Driverless Car Technology

13-Town Transportation Coordination Project


• Challenges with coordination of services• AV dispatch technology could schedule sets of

shared rides within designated “pick-up zones”

• Challenges with consistent driver training• No longer a need for drivers

• Limitations of who can use existing suburban services• AV fleets could be designed and designated for

specific uses or sets of populationsResidents can age in place as suburbs build out

Driverless Car TechnologyUrban Area Impact

What about the T!

• Won’t MBTA core ridership decrease?• Not likely, still cheaper and can transport more

people

• AV technology can be used to connect areas that don’t have as frequent service• Potential feeder service to major MBTA lines

• Reduce congestion in the core• AV fleets could be used as first/last mile

connections, increasing attractiveness of Commuter Rail

Driverless Car TechnologyUrban Area Impact

• Huge potential upside for suburban and rural travel options

• Could serve as the first/last mile connection in all locations

• Increase efficiency of existing suburban transit models

• Increase transit use and car sharing, thereby reducing overall congestion




“Shotgun”Impacts on Planning and Development



Control SystemCOMPLEXITY OF INPUT AND RESPONSE

Software – Computers – Sensors – Controls

Vehicle Operating CharacteristicsMechanical Responses And FailuresRoad Conditions & Weather Intrusions – Pedestrians, Children, AnimalsRoad HazardsTraffic Officer Preemption

Control SystemPhase 1 – Autonomous Control with

Driver Riding Shotgun

Phase 2 – Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles

Truly Driverless Vehicles – Increased Benefits – Increased ComplexityAre Truly Driverless Cars Attainable.Elevators Used to Have OperatorsComputer & Software Crashes – Control

FailuresCriminal Activity – Hackers – Terrorism

Control SystemMercedes-Benz's autonomous research vehicle WSJAt the frontier of making cars drive

themselves… is the writing of pattern-matching algorithms so the machine brain understands what the machine vision sees. As the speed of traffic increases, these algorithms must become increasingly predictive, anticipating, as humans do, the probable intention of drivers in other vehicles.

To evolve, this research needs the car to experience randomness so that it will react appropriately in even the unlikeliest situations. "We have a washing-machine test…[where]…Something suddenly falls off a truck ahead of the car. Can the system react faster and better than a human?

Control SystemPlatform – Individual Systems OR

Centralized ControlUrban Arterials/Highways and Interstate

Highways Restricted to Truly Driverless Vehicles and/or Operate under Centralized Control Increased Speed – Increased CapacityPublic Policy – Establish Design CriteriaManually Controlled Vehicles ProhibitedDrivers Could Not Preempt Autonomous

ControlUniform Vehicle Operating CharacteristicsThe Clunker – The Truck – Special Vehicles

Vehicle DesignUniform Operating Characteristics

Platform – Passenger and Seating Configurations

Personalized Public Transportation Vehicles

Extreme high early maintenance schedule

Roadway & Highway Design

New Classifications and Design Requirements For Highways And Roadways

Ultra Limited Access Highways And Roadways

Replace Conventional Traffic Controls

Headway – LOS – Capacity

Roadway & Highway Design

Totally New Types of Transportation FacilitiesUltra High Speed Vehicle TubesUltra Low Speed Integrated Pedestrian &

Vehicular Facilities for Local Urban AccessSubdivision Streets with 12 Foot Wide

Traveled Ways

Urban DesignUrban Areas Have Been Shaped by

Innovations in Transportation TechnologyEighteenth Century Walking Scale CitiesStreetcar SuburbsPost WW II Urban Freeways

Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles will Reshape the Urban Areas of the 21st Century

URBAN DESIGNVehicular Facilities Are The Antithesis Of

Vibrant Urban Areas.

Capacity Increase for Highways and Streets

Limited Need For Downtown Parking

Greater Urban Density.

Urban Centers Ringed with Remote Parking Facilities

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

Increased VMT

Increased Speed

Increased Energy Use

Exurban Sprawl

Emissions (Increase in VMT vs. Decrease in Congestion)

StakeholdersGroups with Restricted Mobility

Physical Restrictions on Driving – Elderly – Children

EverybodyDecreased Travel TimeUse travel time for business or personal activitiesAt your next dinner party, ask for a show of hands of the people who'd want that [Autonomous vehicle] WSJ

Real Estate

SNEAPA 2013 Thursday b2 10-30_autonomous vehicle ppt10-11-13