SEA LEVEL RISE:

TRANSPORTATION

ASSET VULNERABILITY

Chris Witt, acting Supervising Planner

RI Statewide Planning Program

• Provide an overview for state, local staff, and the public of the exposure of our transportation assets to sea level rise inundation

• Provide transportation stakeholders with best estimation of the exposure of specific roads

Project Objectives

• Develop desktop vulnerability method for ranking adaptation priorities

• ID state transportation assets at highest risk

Sea Level Rise Scenarios

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DATA SOURCES

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Univ. of Rhode Island Environmental Data Center

METHOD

“Bathtub” model Vertical increase in sea level rise over existing terrain

Mapping

Vulnerability

Likelihood and magnitude of

hazard

Social or transportation

impact of hazard occurring

+

Social / transportation impact

Like

liho

od

& m

agn

itu

de

of

haz

ard

Vulnerability

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5 6

2 3 4 5 6 7

3 4 5 6 7 8

4 5 6 7 8 9

5 6 7 8 9 10

Vulnerability Index:

Basic Elements

Indicators Scoring and weighting

system Gut check

Magnitude/urgency of physical hazard

Magnitude of social/transportation impact

For example…

Physical Impact Indicators

• Length/area flooded

• How soon asset will flood

• Age of infrastructure

• Elevation of infrastructure

• Condition of infrastructure

Social and Transportation Indicators

• Use level

• Capacity

• Existence of alternatives

Transportation categories

Roads RIPTA Bus Bridges

Bicycle Intermodal

Rail

Ports and Harbors

Airports

Roads Vulnerability Index

Indicator Type Weight Scoring

SLR Zone Hazard 0.3 1 foot = 10, 3 feet = 6, 5 foot = 2

1 ft. Inundation Hazard 0.1 0-15 feet = 3, 15-100 feet = 7, 100+ feet = 10

3 ft. Inundation Hazard 0.1 0-100 feet = 3, 100-800 feet = 7, 800+ feet = 10

5 ft. Inundation Hazard 0.1 0-500 feet = 3, 500-1500 feet = 7, 1500+ feet = 10

Functional Class Social

Impact 0.3 See table

Evacuation Route Social

Impact 0.1 Yes = 10, No = 0

Roads Vulnerability Findings

Top 10 State-Owned or Maintained Road Segments Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

Rank Road Name Municipality

Feet of SLR When

Any Part of Road

Segment Floods

Functional

Classification

Hurricane

Evacuation

Route

Linear Feet Flooded at: Vulnerabili

ty Index

Score 1ft SLR 3ft SLR 5ft SLR

1 County Rd (103) Barrington 1 Principal Art. Yes 31 248 2888 8.8

2 Main St Warren 1 Principal Art. Yes 25 318 883 8.1

2 Child St Warren 1 Principal Art. Yes 13 283 1179 8.1

4 Massasoit Ave Barrington 1 Minor Art. Yes 15 59 630 7.5

5 Wampanoag Trail

(114) Barrington 3

Principal Art.,

Urban Non

Classified

Yes 0 141 6368 7.3

6 Old Main Rd* Tiverton 1 Collector Yes 150 834 953 7.2

7 Hope St Bristol 3 Principal Art. Yes 0 583 2021 6.9

8 Market St Warren 3 Principal Art.,

Minor Art. Yes 0 1129 2164 6.7

9 Ocean Ave New

Shoreham 1

Minor Art.,

Rural Non

Classified

No 14 1007 2962 6.6

9 Phillips St N. Kingstown 3 Principal Art. Yes 0 209 583 6.6

RIPTA Route Vulnerability Index

Indicator Type Weight Scoring

Frequency Social

Impact 0.15 Under 50 = 0, 50-250 = 2, 250-400 = 6, 400+ = 10

Ridership Social

Impact 0.2

Under 20,000 = 0, 20-100,000 = 2, 100K-200K = 6, 200K+ = 10

SLR Zone Hazard 0.2 1 foot = 10, 3 feet = 6, 5 foot = 2

Stops Flooded 3 ft. Hazard 0.15 0 = 0, 1 stop = 2, 2 stops = 4, 5 stops = 10

Stops Flooded 5 ft. Hazard 0.15 0 stops = 0, 1 stop = 2, 4-5 stops = 4, 6-7 stops = 6, 8-20 stops = 8, 20+ stops = 10

5 ft. Inundation Hazard 0.15 0-2,000 feet = 3; 2,000-8,000 feet = 7, 8,000+ feet = 10

RIPTA Route Vulnerability Findings

Top 11 RIPTA Routes Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

Rank # Name Ridership -

Weekly

Frequency

- Weekly

Trips

SLR Scenario

When Route

First Impacted

Stops

Flooded

at 3 ft SLR

Stops

Flooded at

5 ft SLR

Length

Flooded

at 5 ft

Vulnerability

Index Score

1 60 PROVIDENCE/NEWPORT 332,983 551 1 5 33 15,918 10.0

2 66 URI/GALILEE 192,375 278 3 1 6 7,561 5.6

3 14 WEST BAY 85,518 190 3 2 9 8,660 5.2

4 33 RIVERSIDE 158,398 404 3 0 4 1,485 4.5

5 64 NEWPORT/URI 41,475 118 3 0 7 6,430 3.9

5 65 WAKEFIELD EXPRESS 28,935 55 3 1 4 5,605 3.9

7 3 WARWICK AVE 148,719 399 3 0 0 1,195 3.8

8 67 BELLEVUE MANSION/SALVE REGINS

54,220 514 5 0 1 2,576 3.7

9 1 EDDY ST 197,685 516 5 0 0 801 3.6

10 32 EAST PROVIDENCE/WAMPANOAG

24,958 189 3 0 4 1,485 3.0

10 34 EAST PROVIDENCE 55,565 209 3 0 4 1,485 3.0

Bridge Vulnerability Index

Indicator* Type Weight Scoring

Freeboard Hazard 0.25 Freeboard problem or unknown = 10; No problem = 0

Access Hazard 0.2 Access problem = 10; no problem = 0

Height of freeboard Hazard 0.1 less than 40" = 10; 41-75“ = 6; more than 75" = 2

Over MHHW Hazard 0.2 Yes = 10; No = 0

Carries road facility Social

Impact 0 Carries road facility = 10; other = 0

AADT Social

Impact 0.25 0-1 = 0, 2-5000 = 3, 5000-15000 = 7, 15000+ = 10

Bridge Vulnerability Findings Top 10 State-Owned Bridges Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

Bridge

Name Town Facility

Feature

Intersected

Year

Built AADT

Inches of

Freeboar

d4

Currently over

tidal water?

Access

Problem

Vulnerability

Index Score

Barrington Barrington RI 114/103 CNTY RD

Barrington River 2009 26,000 74 Y problem 9.6

Warren Barrington RI 114/103 CNTY RD

Warren River 1914 19,900 98 Y problem 9

C.L. Hussey Memorial

North Kingstown

US 1A BSTN NCK RD

Wickford Cove 1925 9,100 48 Y problem 8.85

Wickford North Kingstown

US 1A Bstn Nck Rd

Academy Cove 1951 9,100 61 Y problem 8.85

New Harbor Road

New Shoreham Ocean Av Trimms Pond 1925 7,000 70 Y problem 8.85

New Shoreham

New Shoreham Beach Av Harbor Pond 1997 7,000 73 Y problem 8.85

Barrington Parkway

East Providence

Veterans Mem Pkwy

Watchemoket Cove 1973 12,700 80 Y problem 8.25

Bridgetown Narragansett Bridgetown Rd Pettaquamscutt River

1934 9,800 86 Y problem 8.25

Central Barrington Massasoit Av Barrington River 1940 8,800 99 Y problem 8.25

Silver Creek Bristol RI 114 Hope St Tidal Inlet 1922 18,200 20 N problem 8

General Adaptation

Strategies

PROTECT

ACCOMODATE

RETREAT

DO NOTHING

Armor

Enhance natural protections

Accommodate in place

Realignment

How to Use Project Findings

Spending

• Asset management • Project selection (TIP or CIP) • Construction contracts

Planning

• Hazard mitigation plans • Long range transportation

plan • Local comprehensive plans

Goal-setting

• MAP-21 performance measures

• Other performance management

Questions and Discussion