April 2014

Slide 1

Mobilizing  California’s  Electorate:  What  the  Polls (and Pols) say

April 2014

April 2014

Slide 2

Overview of the State

April 2014

Slide 3

California Direction Over Time

20% 30% 39% 43% 45%

69%

61% 53% 48% 48%

11% 8%

8% 9% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% Sep. 2010 Sep. 2011 Oct. 2012 Sep. 2013 Mar. 2014

Right Direction Wrong Track Don't Know

* Data among all adults from PPIC state polls

-49

-31 -14 -5 -3

April 2014

Slide 4

Approval of Governor Brown Over Time

45%

42%

49% 52%

35%

47%

39% 35%

20%

11% 12% 13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% Sep. 2011 Sep. 2012 Sep. 2013 Mar. 2014

Approve Disapprove Don't Know

* Likely voter data from PPIC state polls

+10 -5 +10

+17

April 2014

Slide 5

Approval of California Legislature Over Time

16% 26% 28% 38%

36%

75% 56% 55% 45% 45%

9%

18% 17% 17% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% Sep. 2010 Sep. 2011 Oct. 2012 Sep. 2013 Mar. 2014

Approve Disapprove Don't Know

* Data from PPIC state polls

-59 -30 -27

-7 -9

April 2014

Slide 6

Most Important Issues to California Voters: An  “Environmental”  Issue  – Water – Ranks 2nd

4%

4%

5%

7%

7%

15%

32%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

State budget, defecit, taxes

Crime, gangs, drugs

Health care, health reform, Obamacare

Immigration/ illegal immigration

Education/schools/teachers

Water, drought

Jobs/economy

* Data from PPIC March 2014 state poll

First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?

April 2014

Slide 7

Latinos and the Environment*

* Data from Tulchin Research poll conducted in September 2012

April 2014

Slide 8

Strong Support Among Latinos for Renewable Energy, Conservation and Efficiency; Coal and Offshore-oil Drilling Much Less Popular

Now I am going to read you some types of energy sources. Please tell me whether you support or oppose getting energy from that source.

31% 20% 19%

15%

48%

67%

68%

65%

51% 41%

44% 44%

6% 90%

2% 90%

5% 91%

3% 96%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

+86

Strongly Support Total Support Total Oppose Strongly Oppose

Renewable energy sources like solar and wind power

Natural gas

Energy efficiency

Energy Conservation

Coal

+84

+88

+93

0

Drilling for oil off the California coast - 10

Support - Oppose

April 2014

Slide 9

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: We can protect the environment and create jobs at the same time.

Latino Voters Firmly Believe We Can Protect the Environment AND Create Jobs at the Same Time

1%

3%

5%

21%

69%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Don't Know

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

Agree - Disagree +82

Total Agree: 90%

Total Disagree:

8%

April 2014

Slide 10

Toxic Air and Water Pollution Top Environmental Concerns Among Latinos

Now I am going to read you some environmental concerns facing California that people have. For each one, please tell whether you think the issue is an extremely serious problem, very serious problem,

somewhat serious, or not too serious of a problem.

Very Serious Total Serious

29%

31%

34%

37%

30%

43%

44%

43%

52%

54%

59%

64%

65%

66%

68%

73%

78%

80%

81%

85%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Protecting endangered species

Global warming

Conserving our fish and wildlife habitats

Dependence on foreign oil

Air pollution

Carbon pollution that causes global warming

Pollution threatening your family's health and well being

Water pollution

Toxic chemicals getting into drinking water, food, and everyday products

Toxic pollution that causes asthma, lung disease and cancer

April 2014

Slide 11

Political Dynamics of Transit and

Transportation

April 2014

Slide 12

As Baby Boomers Age, Many Are Moving Into Urban Core and Transit-Friendly Areas

• A 2012 study from the Urban Land Institute (ULI) finds that, while the majority of older Americans want to age in their current homes, many who are able to move are choosing urban locations – both  cities  and  suburban  “town  centers”  – where they can be close to grown children, friends, work, public transportation, and health care.

April 2014

Slide 13

7,900

10,300

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Vehicle-miles driven per capita by young people ages 16-34 in 2009

Vehicle-miles driven per capita by young people ages 16-34 in 2001

While Generation X (Age 35-49) And Boomers (Age 50-65) Have Seen Small Drops In Car Usage, Generation Y Drives Significantly Less.

Between 2001 and 2009, the average number of vehicle-miles traveled by young people (16 to 34-year-olds) decreased from 10,300 miles to 7,900 miles per capita—a drop of 23 percent.

-23%

* Data from WISPERG Foundation study, 2012

April 2014

Slide 14

Generation Y Workers Like To Live Near Work Or Take Transit: Examples Include Google Buses In San Francisco And An Overall Trend In Increased Mass Transit Ridership Among Young People

April 2014

Slide 15

Even Los Angeles Is Focusing on Transit-Oriented Development

• “Here’s  how  it  works.  We’ll  saturate  your  street  with  services.  We’ll  make  your  street  accessible  to  pedestrians,  wheelchairs,  strollers and bicycles–not just cars.

We’ll  create  an  environment  where  new  neighborhood  

businesses  can  flourish.  We’ll  pave  the  streets  and  make  them  green streets — clean and lush with plant life, local art, and people-focused  plazas.”

- Mayor Eric Garcetti, Los Angeles (State of the City Address

April, 2014)

April 2014

Slide 16

The Political Challenges Facing Transit Advocates • Republican Majority in Congress not supportive of mass transit

• House Republicans have put public transportation in their budgetary crosshairs and have cut funding for it

• The 2013 House Republican transportation and housing bill aimed to cut transpiration funding by 15% – approximately $15.3 billion dollars

• BART strike – The strike shut down a successful and popular transit system that impacts an entire region • The good news is people in the Bay Area are acutely aware of how important

BART is to the broader region • Prolonged labor disputes can sour public perception of mass transit • There is a long-term potential for conflict between public transportation

unions and the white collar workers their agencies serve – strong public opposition to the strike

• High-speed rail – a popular concept meets the difficult reality of changing

California’s  car  culture • There is a common pattern in these large transportation projects – strong

initial support, but  opposition  rises  prior  to  the  project’s  construction • There is a chance for public support to rebound once project construction

commences or is completed

April 2014

Slide 17

For More Information About This Research, Contact:

Ben Tulchin (415) 874-7441

ben@tulchinresearch.com www.tulchinresearch.com

182 Second Street, Suite 400

San Francisco, CA 94105

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter

www.facebook.com/TulchinR www.twitter.com/TulchinResearch

April 2014

Slide 18

Mobilizing  California’s  Electorate:  What  the  Polls (and Pols) say

April 2014

Why 2016? • Likely higher presidential voter turnout.

• Likely better economy.

• Measure R Transit projects delivery: 3 projects opened, 3 projects under construction.

• More time to build county consensus on program.

• More time to prepare & run campaign.

• Election Day voter registration will start & could be the margin of victory.

• Likely higher presidential voter turnout.

• Likely better economy.

• Measure R Transit projects delivery: 3 projects opened, 3 projects under construction.

• More time to build county consensus on program.

• More time to prepare & run campaign.

• Election Day voter registration will start & could be the margin of victory.

• Complete and extend all Measure R rail transit projects.

• Start new rail lines all over the county.

• Set aside 3% for First mile / Last mile infrastructure.

• Create small business & community mitigation program.

• Retrofit current lines to improve access and safety.

• Street Resurfacing (cool pavement) + signal synchronization + landscaping + street amenities

• Complete Streets (transit + bike + pedestrian)

• Enhanced Metro Rapid, better safer bus stops with real time digital information

• Incentives for new mixed-use and mixed-income residential developments along boulevards to build transit user base

• Transition to bus-only lanes where appropriate

• To keep transit fares low while increasing service and ridership

• For matching funds for specialized transit passes for students, residents of new affordable in transit priority zones and others

• Create express service on high demand lines

• Improve regional airport connectivity

• Leverage high speed rail to improve connectivity

• Disentangle Metrolink from freight tracks

• Facilitate entry of zero/near zero emissions technologies and fueling

/charging systems

• Create clean truck-only corridors

• Disentangle commuter rail with grade separations and double tracking

• Create local jobs with “Cargo-Oriented Development”

Create a matching fund for local Safe Routes to School program and

broader bicycle/pedestrian infrastructure.

Plus embed bike/pedestrian in:

• Grand Boulevards program

• First mile/last mile investments near new stations

Funds for local transportation priorities.

Incentives :

• For Grand Boulevards program

• For First mile/last mile improvements