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2015POLITICAL MONITOR23.10.2015
2015VOTINGINTENTIONS
Voting IntentionHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
35%
35%
12%
3%9%
6%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = 0 Conservative lead = +4
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
36%
32%
12%
3%10%
7%
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015, all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 773. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
3
2015SATISFACTION WITH THEGOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
5
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT
+0.5%swing from September
+0.5%swing from September
+6.5%swing from September
+1.0%swing from September
-1.5%swing from September
-9 Net -2 Net +8 Net -5 Net -19 NetSATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 38%
DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 57%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-50
+50
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOBAS PRIME MINISTER /ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?
6
Satisfaction with Party leaders Oct ‘08 – Oct ‘15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Oct-08
Jan-
09
Apr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct-09
Jan-
10
Apr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct-10
Jan-
11
Apr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct-11
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct-12
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct-13
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct-14
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct-15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
42%
45%
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE
37%
22%
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
7
Net satisfaction with Prime MinistersHOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOBAS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
8
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
42%
51%
7%
October 2015 August 2006 –October 2015
Aug
-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Dec
-07
Apr
-08
Aug
-08
Dec
-08
Apr
-09
Aug
-09
Dec
-09
Apr
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1S
ep-1
1Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3S
ep-1
3Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15A
pr-1
52O
ct-1
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 51%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = -9
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
9
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 321 Conservative supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
85%
10%4%
October 2015 July 2006 – October 2015
Jul 0
6Ja
n 07
Jul 0
7D
ec 0
7A
pr 0
8A
ug 0
8D
ec-0
8A
pr-0
9A
ug-0
9D
ec-0
9A
pr-1
0S
ep-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
l-11
Nov
-11
Mar
-12
Jul-1
2N
ov-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
l-13
Nov
-13
Mar
-14
Jul-1
4N
ov-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
l-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 85%
DISSATISFIED 10%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +75
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
10
64%16%
21%
37%
39%
25%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 39%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = -2
Base: 1,021 British adults; 311 Labour supporters 18+, 17th –19th October 2015
SATISFIED 64%
DISSATISFIED 16%
DON’T KNOW 21%
Net = +48
Labour supporters only
11
22%
27%
51%61%14%
25%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 80 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 17th – 19 th October 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015 Lib Dem supporters only
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 27%
DON’T KNOW 51%
Net = -5
SATISFIED 61%
DISSATISFIED 14%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = +47
12
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
45%
37%
18%
October 2015 March 2013 – October 2015
SATISFIED 45%
DISSATISFIED 37%
DON’T KNOW 18%
Net = +8
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 83 UKIP supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
91%
6%2%
October 2015 March 2013 – October 2015
SATISFIED 91%
DISSATISFIED 6%
DON’T KNOW 2%
Net = +85Dissatisfied
Satisfied
2015LEADERSHIP CHANGES
15%
14%
22%
28%
16%
27%
30%
10%
13%
17%
16%
11%
22%
12%
33%
21%
25%
22%
36%
16%
21%
14%
21%
13%
14%
12%
16%
12%
17%
26%
19%
14%
10%
14%
19%
11%
4%
5%
5%
15%
4%
6%Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
Party Leadership Change?15PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE
FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:
4
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (Liberal Democrat and UKIP each asked of half sample)N.B. Question wording in 2014 was “The … should change their leader before next year's general election” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
49%
44%
27%
2015
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
42%
27%
39%
25%
47%
31%
32%
28%
22%
30%
31%Labour Party
Liberal Democrats
Conservative Party
UK Independence Party
THE … SHOULD CHANGE THEIR LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020
2015VOTINGINTENTIONS
Voting IntentionHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
35%
35%
12%
3%9%
6%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = 0 Conservative lead = +4
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
36%
32%
12%
3%10%
7%
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015, all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 773. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
17
2015SATISFACTION WITH THEGOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
19
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT
+0.5%swing from September
+0.5%swing from September
+6.5%swing from September
+1.0%swing from September
-1.5%swing from September
-9 Net -2 Net +8 Net -5 Net -19 NetSATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 38%
DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 57%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-50
+50
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOBAS PRIME MINISTER /ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?
20
Satisfaction with Party leaders Oct ‘08 – Oct ‘15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Oct-08
Jan-
09
Apr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct-09
Jan-
10
Apr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct-10
Jan-
11
Apr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct-11
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct-12
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct-13
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct-14
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct-15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
42%
45%
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE
37%
22%
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
21
Net satisfaction with Prime MinistersHOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOBAS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
22
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
42%
51%
7%
October 2015 August 2006 –October 2015
Aug
-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Dec
-07
Apr
-08
Aug
-08
Dec
-08
Apr
-09
Aug
-09
Dec
-09
Apr
-10
Sep
-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1S
ep-1
1Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3S
ep-1
3Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan-
15A
pr-1
52O
ct-1
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 51%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = -9
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
23
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 321 Conservative supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
85%
10%4%
October 2015 July 2006 – October 2015
Jul 0
6Ja
n 07
Jul 0
7D
ec 0
7A
pr 0
8A
ug 0
8D
ec-0
8A
pr-0
9A
ug-0
9D
ec-0
9A
pr-1
0S
ep-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
l-11
Nov
-11
Mar
-12
Jul-1
2N
ov-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
l-13
Nov
-13
Mar
-14
Jul-1
4N
ov-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
l-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 85%
DISSATISFIED 10%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +75
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
24
64%16%
21%
37%
39%
25%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 39%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = -2
Base: 1,021 British adults; 311 Labour supporters 18+, 17th –19th October 2015
SATISFIED 64%
DISSATISFIED 16%
DON’T KNOW 21%
Net = +48
Labour supporters only
25
22%
27%
51%61%14%
25%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 80 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 17th – 19 th October 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015 Lib Dem supporters only
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 27%
DON’T KNOW 51%
Net = -5
SATISFIED 61%
DISSATISFIED 14%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = +47
26
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
45%
37%
18%
October 2015 March 2013 – October 2015
SATISFIED 45%
DISSATISFIED 37%
DON’T KNOW 18%
Net = +8
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
27
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 83 UKIP supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
91%
6%2%
October 2015 March 2013 – October 2015
SATISFIED 91%
DISSATISFIED 6%
DON’T KNOW 2%
Net = +85Dissatisfied
Satisfied
2015LEADERSHIP CHANGES
15%
14%
22%
28%
16%
27%
30%
10%
13%
17%
16%
11%
22%
12%
33%
21%
25%
22%
36%
16%
21%
14%
21%
13%
14%
12%
16%
12%
17%
26%
19%
14%
10%
14%
19%
11%
4%
5%
5%
15%
4%
6%Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
Party Leadership Change?29PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE
FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:
4
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (Liberal Democrat and UKIP each asked of half sample)N.B. Question wording in 2014 was “The … should change their leader before next year's general election” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
49%
44%
27%
2015
2015
2015
2015
2014
2014
2014
42%
27%
39%
25%
47%
31%
32%
28%
22%
30%
31%Labour Party
Liberal Democrats
Conservative Party
UK Independence Party
THE … SHOULD CHANGE THEIR LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020
2015POLITICAL MONITOR23.10.2015