FRAGMENTATION UNCERTAINTY & OPTIMISM · How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC 25 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain

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FRAGMENTATION UNCERTAINTY& OPTIMISM

BOBBY DUFFYMD Ipsos MORI Public AffairsGlobal Director, Ipsos Social Research InstituteVisiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London@BobbyIpsosMORI

2© Ipsos

18,000+PEOPLE 23

COUNTRIES

IN


CRISIS OF THE ELITES

UNCERTAINY ISTHE NEW NORMAL

RISE AND RISE OF TRADITION

SIMPLICITY AND CONTROL

OPTIMISM DIVIDE

GENERATION STRAINS

BATTLE FOR ATTENTION

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THE ELITES THE CRISIS OF


71%: Government does not prioritise concerns of people like me

76%: Economy is rigged to the advantage of the rich and powerful


Base: 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016

Our government does not prioritise the concerns of people like me

Governmentdoesn’t care… 71%

87%83%80%77%77%75%75%75%74%73%72%71%71%69%69%68%65%64%63%60%56%50%

21%11%12%14%15%19%16%17%21%17%15%18%19%24%25%27%22%23%25%29%32%34%21%

TotalMexicoS Africa

SpainItaly

S KoreaAustralia

BrazilPoland

U.S.France

GBRussia

PeruIndia

TurkeyBelgium

GermanyCanada

ArgentinaIndonesia

SwedenJapan

AGREE DISAGREE

Agree Disagree



The economy of my country is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful

Economy isrigged… 76%

94%85%84%83%81%80%80%79%78%78%78%77%76%75%75%72%71%71%69%67%65%56%

18%5%

10%11%15%13%15%11%17%18%19%17%16%16%14%18%25%20%14%24%24%31%35%

TotalMexico

SpainItaly

S KoreaBrazil

BelgiumRussia

S AfricaIndia

TurkeyU.S.

GermanyGB

AustraliaFrance

PeruCanada

JapanArgentina

PolandIndonesia

Sweden

AGREE DISAGREE

Agree Disagree



Two trends explain: “Nativism” and “System is Broken”

10EU Perils of Perception 2016

The Perils of Perceptionand Brexit…

11

Britain pays more into

Euro-Myth

Euro-Reality?

the EU budget each yearthan Germany

or

12

13

14 ©Ipsos.

THE POPULATION DO YOU THINKARE IMMIGRANTS (I.E. NOT

WHAT PERCENTAGE OF

BORN IN THIS COUNTRY?)

Actual… Guess…

13% 25%

33%14%


“EMOTIONAL INNUMERACY…”

We overestimate what we worry about as much as worrying about what we

overestimate

Vital implication:This is not all about facts

and myth-busting…

Misdiagnoses issue:emotional reactions require

emotional responses…

16 ©Ipsos.

BREXIT WAS MORE EMOTIONAL THAN MANY THOUGHT…

"The major impression one gets observing the debate is that the reasons for exit are clearly emotional"

17 ©Ipsos.

BREXIT DELIVERED BY EXCLUDED AND INSULATED…

I think it was a coalition of the excluded –people who’d had a raw deal in the last 10 or 20 years, who even as the economy as a whole was growing, didn’t feel like they were participating in it…

…and the insulated, older voters who had assets, where exactly what they were going do to earn a living over the next 20 years wasn’t a crucial concern.

Economic and cultural concerns…


GENERATION STRAINS


78%66%65%

63%56%

49%48%

45%42%

40%39%

37%34%

32%29%28%27%26%

24%22%21%

15%10%

ChinaPeruIndia

IndonesiaBrazil

S AfricaMexicoRussiaPoland

ArgentinaU.S.

TurkeyItaly

GermanyCanadaJapan

SwedenAustraliaS Korea

GBSpain

BelgiumFrance

MORE DISRUPTION

To what extent, if at all, do you feel that today’s youth will have had a better or worse life than their parents, or will it be about the same?”

TOMORROW…% better

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20


WINNERS AND LOSERS SINCE THE2008 CRASH ACCORDING TO IFS

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22

23Millennials: Myths & Realities | May 2017 | Public

Top 5 words to describe:

54% Tech-savvy

34% Lazy

41% Work-centric

33% Arrogant

32% Community-orientated

45% Materialistic

31% Well-educated

39% Selfish

47% Respectful

30% Ethical

Mill

enni

als

Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey 2017

Millennials describe themselves in the same way: 44% say their generation is materialistic, 37% selfish and 33% lazy.

MOST DERIDED GENERATION…?Baby Boom

ers


ARE THE YOUNG STARTING TO FLEXTHEIR POLITICAL MUSCLE?

25How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How Britain voted by age – the biggest age gap we’ve seen since our estimates started in 1979

27% 27%33%

43%51%

61%62%56%

49%40%

34%25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain.

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP

% e

stim

ated

vot

e sh

are



WE ALL NEED TO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO MILLENNIALS…


DIVIDE THE OPTIMISM

© Ipsos 29

GLOBALISATION

Globalisation is good for my country

DIVIDES…


Agree Disagree

55%82%79%77%72%72%70%65%57%56%56%54%53%52%49%49%45%45%45%41%41%36%31%

32%14%13%19%24%17%24%26%32%34%27%27%37%29%31%31%45%41%37%36%41%51%53%

TotalIndia

ChinaPeru

IndonesiaS Africa

BrazilArgentina

SwedenS Korea

GBCanadaTurkey

AustraliaJapan

U.S.Germany

MexicoPolandRussiaSpain

ItalyFrance

AGREE DISAGREE

© Ipsos 30

… CLOSE LINK TO

Looking ahead to the next 12 months, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the following?

My country

OPTIMISM…

Base: 10,412 adults across 23 countries online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016

36%73%68%62%59%52%50%48%42%38%38%38%36%35%33%31%27%23%21%16%15%14%11%10%

35%11%11%10%

9%21%25%31%27%31%37%36%41%34%41%40%41%30%46%52%56%52%62%64%

TotalIndonesia

IndiaPeru

ChinaCanadaRussia

ArgentinaAustralia

BrazilS Africa

U.S.Turkey

SwedenGB

PolandGermany

JapanMexicoS KoreaBelgium

ItalySpain

France

Optimistic Pessimistic

31

COME IN?WHERE DOES BUSINESS


TRUST IN BUSINESS LEADERS…

...WOULD YOU TELL ME IF YOU GENERALLY TRUST THEM TO TELL THE TRUTH, OR NOT?

0

25

50

75

100

Base: 2,010 GB adults 16-75, 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI

Doctors

Journalists

Politicians

Pollsters

Business Leaders

© Ipsos 33


I trust business leaders to tell the truth

A TRUST DEFICIT?

KEY:

Agree 2016 Disagree 2016

32%65%54%48%42%39%38%37%36%35%35%33%29%28%28%24%22%19%19%19%19%18%15%

61%32%42%49%52%55%56%60%59%58%59%64%61%42%67%70%71%73%74%65%78%73%74%

TotalIndia

IndonesiaS Africa

BrazilCanada

U.S.Turkey

PeruAustraliaSweden

SpainItaly

JapanMexico

GBGermany

ArgentinaBelgiumPoland

S KoreaFranceRussia

AGREE DISAGREE


Source: Ipsos MORI

Base: British public (c1,000), 1984 – 2011 asked face-to-face methodology Q: What do you think are the two or three most important things to know about a company in order to judge its reputation? [Spontaneous]

WHEN IT COMES TO JUDGING A COMPANY,HONESTY AND INTEGRITY ARE MORE

'84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Honesty & Integrity

Customer service

Quality of products/services

IMPORTANT THAN EVER

35© Ipsos

In the future, the mostsuccessful brands will be those that make the most positive contribution to society beyond just providing good services and products


THANK YOU

@BobbyIpsosMORI

Documents

FRAGMENTATION UNCERTAINTY & OPTIMISM · How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC 25 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain