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Evaluation by Donbas expert community of the situation in the region and prospects of its restoration
Jury of opinion
Community initiative «Restoring Donbas»
February, 2015
INFORMATION ABOUT THE RESEARCH
METHOD
RESEARCH SCHEDULE
SAMPLING
Extra-mural expert survey (online-interrogation)
From 27.12.2014 until 31.01.2015
400 representatives of expert community of Donetsk and Luhansk regions: volunteers, public figures, journalists, entrepreneurs, professionals in production sector and heads of enterprises. Experts (participants of the survey) are the residents of the following areas:- ATO area;- Donetsk and Luhansk regions (except ATO area);- other regions of Ukraine (except Crimea);- Kiev;- Crimea; - outside Ukraine.
Evaluation by expert community of Donbas of the situation in the region and prospects of its restoration
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CONTENTS
MAJOR FINDINGS 4
POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS 7
EXPECTED RESULTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION 12
PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DONBAS 14
OPTIMAL ECONOMIC POLICY IN RESPECT OF DONBAS 15
PERSPECTIVE SPHERES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DONBAS 16
DEVELOPMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES 17
SUPPORT OF SMALL AND MEDIUM BUSINESS IN DONBAS 18
DEMAND FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 19
READINESS OF DONBAS BUSINESS TO ASSIST RESIDENTS OF ATO AREA AND IDPs 20
READINESS OF EXPERTS TO PARTICIPATE IN RESTORING OF DONBAS 21
DEMAND FOR INFORMATION SERVICES 22
SYSTEM OF VALUES OF DONBAS RESIDENTS 23
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MAJOR FINDINGS• More than half of the expert respondents (52,3%) state that continuation of the negotiation
process is the necessary condition for resolving the conflict in the East of Ukraine. About 34,9% of experts support continuation of armed hostilities. At the same time, only 12,8% of respondents support granting the right of self-determination to territories where the ATO is being conducted, as a course of action to resolve the conflict.
• Majority of experts, who recognize that the conflict in the East of Ukraine can not be resolved unilaterally, consider resolution of the conflict in Donbas to be a result of interaction of the parties involved. Thus, 73% of respondents identify two or more key decision-makers, capable to resolve the conflict or to improve the situation in Donbas.
• Experts believe that the main decision-makers, who are capable of changing things in Donbas, are President of Ukraine (53,1%), leaders of the EU and the US (46,3%), President of Russia (41,6%). This indicates experts’ impression of a high degree of personalization of responsibility for what is happening in Donbas, focus on specific individuals and their statements.
• Leaders of self-proclaimed "republics", regional elite and lawmakers in Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are considered by experts to be subjects of decision-making to a much lesser extent – 7,7%, 15,6% and 18,9%, respectively. This indicates a crisis of representation of interests of Donbas residents both at regional and all-Ukrainian levels. Most experts (27,7%) identify residents of the ATO area themselves as a subject of conflict resolution.
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MAJOR FINDINGS• Whereas a political solution of the conflict, most of the surveyed experts (56,2%) see in the
returning to status-quo – preservation of Ukrainian state integrity and provision of Donetsk and Luhansk regions with the same conditions as for other regions of Ukraine. 31,8% of respondents believe that creation of autonomy within Ukraine is an acceptable political solution. Possibility of recognition of independence of the territories, where the ATO is being conducted, has meager support among the experts. Only 7,9% of the interviewed experts support this option. 4,1% of the respondents support affiliation of territories in conflict to the Russian Federation.
• Under conditions of military actions and economic blockade of territories in conflict, experts identify critical situation in financial sector and high degree of damage to production facilities (7,8 and 7,7 points out of 10, respectively) to be among the most important problems of Donbas economy. In addition, according to respondents, the lack of innovative developments (7,2 points) and unsatisfactory condition of transport communications (7 points) are rather significant problems for the region. Issues of the condition of raw materials base, condition of recreation and services and personnel training potential were named by experts as the least problematic for the region.
• Experts, in their opinion, associate the prospects for recovery of Donbas economy with 5 key economic sectors for the region : metallurgy, coal industry, small and medium enterprises in industrial sector, agricultural sector, innovative technology and communication services. More than half of the experts mark out the development of entrepreneurship and innovation among the priorities.
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MAJOR FINDINGS• In the aspect of focus on sectors of economy, traditional for Donbas (metallurgy and coal
mining), experts, support ideas of new economic approaches in development of the region. In particular, respondents believe that after the end of military actions it is necessary to create an innovative industrial area in Donbas (27%), pay attention to restoration of the banking sector (26%) and to introduce tax holiday for small and medium-sized business (25%).
• According to experts, development of small and medium-sized businesses in the industrial sector is placed among the top 3 priority sectors. Experts attributed non-production sector of the economy - transportation, services sphere and tourism to the secondary priorities.
• With regard to support of the of small and medium-sized business development, Donbas experts pointed out the necessity of provision of concessional loans to entrepreneurs (62,8%), conducting meetings and training sessions for entrepreneurs (60,7%), introduction of the "tax holidays" regime (58,4%). Furthermore, experts who live in the ATO area, consider tax measures to be a priority : introduction of tax holidays (70%) and exemption from taxes and fines (41,7%).
• According to experts, the most demanded humanitarian assistance for both, residents of the ATO area, residents of Donbas territories controlled by Ukraine, and IDPs is medicine. According to experts, it is also very important for the ATO area residents to obtain essential food products, baby (infant) food and personal care products. In addition to humanitarian assistance, the ATO area residents and IDPs require provision of information services.
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POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
More than half of the expert respondents (52,3%) state that continuation of the negotiation process is the necessary condition for resolving the conflict in the East of Ukraine. 34,9% support continuation of armed hostilities. At the same time, only 12,8% of respondents support granting the right of self-determination to territories where the ATO is being conducted, as a course of action to resolve the conflict.
34,9%
12,8%
52,3%
What actions should be taken by Ukrainian side in order to resolve the conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk regions?
Negotiation process Continuation of armed hostilities
Granting the right of self-determination
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POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
The negotiation process in order to resolve the conflict is being supported by the majority of experts, who are the residents of the ATO area (69,8%), Crimea (66,7%) and Kiev (51,6%). Respondents, who love in territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by Ukraine (42,9%) and in other regions of Ukraine (45,7%) stand for continuation of military actions.
Outside Ukraine Donetsk and Luhansk regions
(controlled by Ukraine)
other regions of Ukraine
Kiev Crimea ATO area
37,5% 46,9% 49,6% 51,6%66,7% 69,8%
41,7%10,2% 4,7%
15,4%
33,3%15,1%
20,8%42,9% 45,7%
33.00%15,1%
What actions should be taken by Ukrainian side in order to resolve the conflict in Donbas?
(answers from regional perspective)
Negotiation process Granting the right of self-determination
Continuation of armed hostilities8
POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
53,1% of respondents impose responsibility for resolution of the conflict and improvement of the situation in Donbas upon the President of Ukraine. Among the main decision-makers, who are capable of changing things in Donbas, experts also single out leaders of the EU and the US (46,3%) and President of Russia (41,6%). This indicates experts’ impression of a high degree of personalization of responsibility for what is happening in Donbas, focus on specific individuals and their statements.46.3% of respondents mark out Armed Forces of Ukraine as a subject of conflict resolution, 41,9% - Government of Ukraine.
President of Ukraine Leaders of the EU and the US
Armed Forces of Ukraine
Government of Ukraine President of Russia
53,1%46,3% 46,3%
41,9% 41,6%
Who, in your opinion, is capable of resolving the conflict and improving the situation in Donbas?
(several different options to choose from)
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POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
7,7%15,6% 18,9% 22,9% 27,7%
Who, in your opinion, is capable of resolving the conflict and improving the situation in Donbas?
(several different options to choose from)
Some experts consider that leaders of the self-proclaimed "LNR" and "DNR" (7,7%), regional elites (15,6%), Verkhovna Rada (18,9%), international organizations (22,9%) and ordinary citizens of the ATO area (27,7%) are the subjects that may influence on the resolution of the conflict.
Undervaluation by experts of leverage of the leaders of self-proclaimed "republics", regional elite and Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine lawmakers indicates a crisis of representation of interests of Donbas residents both at regional and all-Ukrainian levels. In this situation, majority of experts (27,7%) identify residents of the ATO area themselves as a subject of conflict resolution.
According to experts, international organizations (UN, NATO, OSCE, EU, PACE, G7, Red Cross), can also influence on the situation to a greater extent than the regional elites and leaders of the self-proclaimed "republics". 22,9% of the respondents included international organizations into the list of subjects that are able to resolve the conflict. 10
POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
73% of respondents identify two or more key decision-makers, who are capable of resolving the conflict or improving the situation in Donbas. Thus, majority of experts consider resolution of the conflict in Donbas to be a result of interaction of the parties involved, recognizing that the conflict in the East of Ukraine can not be resolved unilaterally.
Two and more subjects One subject No answer
73%
21%
6%
Who, in your opinion, is capable of resolving the conflict and improving the situation in Donbas?(variation of answers)
11
EXPECTED RESULTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Whereas a political solution of the conflict, most of the surveyed experts (56,2%) see in the returning to status-quo – preservation of Ukrainian state integrity and provision of Donetsk and Luhansk regions with the same conditions as for other regions of Ukraine. 31,8% of respondents believe that creation of autonomy within Ukraine is an acceptable political solution.
Possibility of recognition of independence of the territories, where the ATO is being conducted, has meager support among the experts. Only 7,9% of the interviewed experts support this option. 4,1% of the respondents support affiliation of territories in conflict to the Russian Federation.
56.2%31.8%
7.9%
4.1%
How do you think, what political decision would maximally defuse the at the moment?
Return to status-quo
Creation of autonomy within Ukraine
Recognition of independence of the territories
Affiliation to the Russian Federation
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EXPECTED RESULTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
In the regional context there are the largest number of supporters of returning areas, which are uncontrolled by Ukraine, to status-quo – 73% in the regions of Ukraine and 59,6% in Ukraine-controlled Donbas.
Recognition of independence of the ATO areas is supported by Crimea experts (50%). The same group would have supported a scenario of affiliation of uncontrolled Donbas territories to the Russian Federation.
Among experts, who are the residents of the ATO area, there is the largest number of supporters of autonomy within Ukraine (44,4%). Recognition of independence of territories or their affiliation to the Russian Federation is supported by 11,1% and 3.7% of experts, living in the ATO area, respectively.
Crimea Outside Ukraine ATO area Kiev Donetsk and Luhansk regions (controlled by
Ukraine)
other regions of Ukraine
16.7%
35%
44.4% 35.6%38.3% 21.4%
50%
20%
11.1% 9.2% 4.8%33.3% 20%
3.7% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8%
25%40.7% 50.6% 59.6%
73%
How do you think, what political decision would maximally defuse the at the moment?
(answers from regional perspective)
Return to status-quo Creation of autonomy within Ukraine
Recognition of independence of the territories Affiliation to the Russian Federation 13
PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DONBAS
• Under conditions of military actions and economic blockade of territories in conflict, experts identify critical situation in financial sector and high degree of damage to production facilities (7,8 and 7,7 points out of 10, respectively) to be among the most important problems of Donbas economy. In addition, according to respondents, the lack of innovative developments (7,2 points) and unsatisfactory condition of transport communications (7 points) are rather significant problems for the region. Issues of the condition of raw materials base, condition of recreation and services and personnel training potential were named by experts as the least problematic for the region.
7.8 7.77.2 7.0
6.2 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8
On the ten-point scale evaluate the importance of the following issues for the economy of Donbas nowadays?
(average)
Condition of financial environment
Condition of production capacities
Absence of innovative developments
Condition of transport communications
Level of entrepreneurial initiative of population
Absence of professional personnel and manpower reserves
Potential of professional personnel training
Condition of recreation and services
Condition of raw materials base14
OPTIMAL ECONOMIC POLICY IN RESPECT OF DONBAS
restoration of the banking
system26%
creation of export-indus-
trial area 15%tax holidays
for small and medium-
sized busi-ness25%
creation of an “offshore
area” in Donbas
6%
creation of an innovative
industrial area27%
complete economic
blockade of the region
1%
What economic policy should the Government of Ukraine carry out with respect to Donbas after assumed end of military actions?
In the aspect of focus on sectors of economy, traditional for Donbas (metallurgy and coal mining), experts, support ideas of new economic approaches in development of the region
In particular, respondents believe that after the end of military actions it is necessary to create an innovative industrial area in Donbas (27%), pay attention to restoration of the banking sector (26%) and to introduce tax holiday for small and medium-sized business (25%).
A scenario of complete economic blockade of the region support minimal amount of experts (around the 1%). 15
PERSPECTIVE SPHERES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DONBAS
Experts define 5 key economic sectors, prospective in the context of recovery of Donbas economy: metallurgy, coal industry, small and medium enterprises in industrial sector, agricultural sector, innovative technology and communication services.
Consequently, development of small and medium-sized business in the industrial sector is placed among the top 3 priority sectors. Experts attributed transportation, services sphere and tourism (non-production sector of the economy) to the secondary priorities.
48,4% 47,8%42,4%
35,2% 33,6%28%
22,8%
11% 11% 9% 6,6%4%
Development of which economic branches will allow restoring Donbas economy in the shortest time possible?
Metallurgy Coal mining industry
Small and medium-sized businesses in the industrial sector Agrarian sector
Innovative technology and communication services Mechanic engineering/machinery
Small and medium-sized business in trade sector Food industry
Transportation Consumer goods industry
Services sectror Tourism 16
DEVELOPMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES
In matters of restoration of Donbas, the emphasis on development of entrepreneurship and innovative technologies is made by those experts, who live in the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, controlled by Ukraine, as well as by those, who had left for other regions of Ukraine and those, who have stayed in the ATO area.
56,9%54,5%
48,4%44,7%
32%
16,7%
Frequencies of mentioning of entrepreneurship as a prospective economy sphere for restoration of Donbas
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (con-trolled by Ukraine)
other regions of Ukraine
ATO area
Kiev
Outside Ukraine
Crimea
17
SUPPORT OF SMALL AND MEDIUM BUSINESS IN DONBAS
62.8% 60.7% 58.4%
35.4% 34.9%
What measures for small and medium-sized business of Donbas you consider to be relevant after the end of hostilities?
In the aspect of supporting the development of Donbas small and medium-sized businesses, experts point out the following measures, which to their opinion, would be relevant after the end of hostilities: - provision of concessional loans to entrepreneurs (62,8%); - conducting meetings and training sessions for entrepreneurs (60,7%); - introduction of the "tax holidays" regime (58,4%).
The issue of exemption from taxes and fines turned out to be of secondary importance, as it was noted by only 34,9% of respondents. Tax issues are number one priority only for those experts who are the residents in the ATO area. Introduction of tax holidays is supported by 70% of them, exemption from taxes and fines - 41,7%.
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DEMAND FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
P – critical relevance, P- high relevance, P – medium relevance
АТО area Ukraine-controlled Donbas territories
Among IDPs
Essential medicineP P P
Medicine for special groups (insulin etc.) P P PEssential food products
P P PBaby (infant) food P P PChildren care products P P PPersonal care products P P PHousehold chemicals P P PWarm clothes P P PFuel for individual heating
P P P
According to experts, the most demanded humanitarian assistance for both, residents of the ATO area, residents of Donbas territories controlled by Ukraine, and IDPs is medicine. According to experts, it is also very important for the ATO area residents to obtain essential food products, baby (infant) food and personal care products.
19
According to experts, business of Donbas is ready to support the activities of enterprises located in the ATO area itself at least (33,6%).
READINESS OF DONBAS BUSINESS TO ASSIST RESIDENTS OF ATO AREA AND IDPs
According to respondents, Donbas entrepreneurs are ready to participate in assisting the residents of ATO area and IDPs. 84,2% of experts believe that business of Donbas can provide employment for countrymen-IDPs in their enterprises. At the same time, 62% believe that entrepreneurs can assist IDPs in construction of temporary housing.
84.2%
62% 58.4%50.9%
33.6%
How, in your opinion, business of Donbas can help non-combatants, who are leav-ing the ATO area?
20
58% of the experts are ready to participate in volunteer projects aimed at restoring devastations upon completion of hostilities. Experts, who live outside Ukraine and those, who live in Kiev are ready to volunteer least of all. Experts, who live in the Ukraine-controlled Donbas territories (67,2%), Crimea (66,7%) and in the ATO area (58,1%) are ready to volunteer the most.
41% of experts are ready to provide financial assistance to voluntary organizations.36% of respondents agreed to participate in restoration of Donbas for a fee.
READINESS OF EXPERTS TO PARTICIPATE IN RESTORING OF DONBAS
28.0%
50.5% 51.7%58.1%
66.7% 67.2%
Are you ready to actively participate in volunteer projects?
Outside Ukraine
Kiev
other regions of Ukraine
ATO area
Crimea
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (controlled by Ukraine)
21
DEMAND FOR INFORMATION SERVICES
In addition to humanitarian assistance, according to experts, the ATO area residents and IDPs require provision of some information services. According to respondents, for ATO area residents the first and foremost is information assistance (85,9%) and psychological counselling (85,5%). For IDPs - legal consultations (92,4%) and information assistance (85,6%) are highly relevant.
Experts attributed remote consultations with medical professionals and online tutoring services to the secondary needs for both population categories.
Remote tutoring services (school, interest clubs)
Remote consultations with medical professionals
Legal consultations
Psychological counselling
Information assistance
52.3%
76.0%
79.0%
85.5%
85.9%
For ATO area residents For IDPs
- required - hard to tell - not required 22
Remote tutoring services (school, interest clubs)
Remote consultations with medical professionals
Psychological counselling
Information assistance
Legal consultations
40.7%
54.5%
84.6%
85.6%
92.4%
SYSTEM OF VALUES OF DONBAS RESIDENTS
According to experts, fundamental values for Donbas residents, are family (76,1%), stability (72,8%) and peace (62,3%). Also respondents included justice and property in the Top 5 list of fundamental values, but they are far behind the leaders, having got only 16% and 13,7% respectively.
Honesty
Equality
Right
Freedom
Social weight
Colleagues opinion
Property
Justice
Peace
Stability
Family
2.8%
4.3%
4.6%
9.2%
13%
13%
13.7%
16%
62.3%
72.8%
76.1%
Fundamental values of Donbas residents
23
Thank you for your
attention!
© Community initiative «Restoring Donbas». 2015
http://[email protected]+38 (099) 074-91-60
