Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
A Digital Conversation Meetup, June 2014. The closing presentation of the evening was shared by Adam Sefton. Talking on the subject of complexity of the Next Web, he suggested instead of worrying about trying to organise and control this world, both digital and offline, we should embrace complexity (unicorns and all) and allow solutions to evolve and emerge naturally. Adam Sefton is Global Executive Creative Director at Reading Room. He's been working in digital on a variety of levels for over 10 years, the last 6 in senior agency positions. He is excitable, energetic and enthusiastic about the internet, how people like to use it and what might happen to it in the future. He is returning to discuss how the emergent principles and technologies underlying the next iteration of the web should influence organisations digital strategies. What are the challenges and opportunities facing digital decision makers.
Citation preview
The Next WebHow this new network of connected things is a complex system.
Why this means we no longer know what we’re doing.
And why that might just be ok after all.
13 June 2014
What it used to be
The Next Web
What it is now
The Next Web
It’s complicated
The Next Web
Keep it simple, stupid
The Next Web
The Next Web
“As with all things in life,
it’s changed …
So I guess I now prefer
complexity.”
The Next Web
Bugger
The Next Web
Complex systems
The Next Web
Complex systems
(the following from “Complexity: A Guided Tour” by Melanie Michell)
The Next Web
Complex systems
• Complex collective behaviour – the whole is not just the sum of
its parts.
The Next Web
Complex systems
• Complex collective behaviour – the whole is not just the sum of
its parts.
• Signaling and information processing – these systems both
produce and consume signals and information.
The Next Web
Complex systems
• Complex collective behaviour – the whole is not just the sum of
its parts.
• Signaling and information processing – these systems both
produce and consume signals and information.
• Adaption – they adapt through learning to get more effective at
what they do.
The Next Web
Examples
• The Human brain.
• Weather and climate.
• The behaviour of societies.
• Communication networks.
• Capitalist markets.
The Next Web
Important Point #1
• Complex systems cannot be understood by understanding their
constituent parts.
The Next Web
Aside #1 – measuring complexity
• The system is as complex as the lines of computer code it would
take to code that system from start to finish.
The Next Web
Example system 1.0
The Next Web
Example system 1.1
The Next Web
Example system 1.2
The Next Web
Example system 1.3
The Next Web
Example system 1.4
The Next Web
ARRGGHH
Example system 1.5
The Next Web
Example system 2.0
The Next Web
Example system 2.1
The Next Web
It’s adapting, but it’s painful
• It happens all the time.
• So why do we expect to get it right next time?
• Because we understand more this time?
The Next Web
It’s adapting, but it’s painful
• It happens all the time.
• So why do we expect to get it right next time?
• Because we understand more this time?
• Remember, complex systems do not get easier to understand the
more you understand their constituent parts.
The Next Web
Seeking simplicity in the
face of complexity is
simply a faster route to
obsolescence.
Accepting complexity
The Next Web
http://responsive.org/2014/05/you-cant-escape-complexity/
Important Point #2
• New technologies mean our systems have to adapt. Fighting that
adaption is painful and in all likelihood entirely futile. Stop it.
The Next Web
Aside #2 – death of RSS was Very Bad
• It represents the New Order (Google, Facebook, Apple)
tightening their walls around their (your) data.
• It represents them locking you (the user) into one ecosystem.
Apple do it better than others, but they ALL do it.
• But being locked into one platform does not simplify the
experience. The system is still complex.
• And now you have less choice.
The Next Web
Concentric complex systems
• Not only are our technological networks complex, but the
organisations in which they sit are likely also complex.
• We have to deal with, unfortunately, complex systems within
complex systems.
The Next Web
The Next Web
Marketing H.R.I.T.Sales Finance
MarketingDirector
MarketingManager
BrandManager
CommsManager
DigitalMarketingManager
DigitalMarketingManager
MarketingExecutive
MarketingExecutive
Concentric complex systems
The Next Web
Marketing H.R.I.T.Sales Finance
MarketingDirector
MarketingManager
BrandManager
CommsManager
DigitalMarketingManager
DigitalMarketingManager
MarketingExecutive
MarketingExecutive
Concentric complex systems
The Next Web
Marketing H.R.I.T.Sales Finance
MarketingDirector
MarketingManager
BrandManager
CommsManager
DigitalMarketingManager
DigitalMarketingManager
MarketingExecutive
MarketingExecutive
Concentric complex systems
The Next Web
Marketing H.R.I.T.Sales Finance
MarketingDirector
MarketingManager
BrandManager
CommsManager
DigitalMarketingManager
DigitalMarketingManager
MarketingExecutive
MarketingExecutive
Concentric complex systems
The Next Web
Marketing H.R.I.T.Sales Finance
MarketingDirector
MarketingManager
BrandManager
CommsManager
DigitalMarketingManager
DigitalMarketingManager
MarketingExecutive
MarketingExecutive
Concentric complex systems
The Next Web
Marketing H.R.I.T.Sales Finance
MarketingDirector
MarketingManager
BrandManager
CommsManager
DigitalMarketingManager
DigitalMarketingManager
MarketingExecutive
MarketingExecutive
Concentric complex systems
ARRGGHH
Haven’t we been here before?
The Next Web
An example
The Next Web
Important Point #3
• Complex systems exist within other complex systems. The
workings of one interact with the workings of the other.
The Next Web
The Black Swan
• The Black Swan is a concept based around the idea of events
that are impossible to predict but that seem obvious in hindsight.
• For a variety of reasons, this is true of almost all large events.
• Human beings are very bad at accepting randomness. But the
truth is that random events impact upon our lives and success far
more than we realise.
• See also: Outliers; Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow; Any Good Book
On Behavioural Economics.
The Next Web
Dealing with uncertainty
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s approach to the stockmarket:
• Place a lot of bets on exceptionally safe low-odd outcomes
• Place a few on exceptionally risky high-odd outcomes
The Next Web
Dealing with uncertainty
If you don’t know which 1 thing is going to happen, do more
than 1 thing.
The Next Web
Important point #4
• Complex systems are hard to understand.
• But human beings like to feel like they understand.
• Post-rationalisation is rampant and covering up the truth.
Benefiting from complexity
• Complexity brings uncertainty.
• We might understand what happened, but we don’t yet
understand how or why it happened.
• Can we use this to our advantage?
The Next Web
Why don’t we just accept the truth
• We don’t know. We’ve got no clue. Sorry boss.
The Next Web
If we know this, we can benefit by …
• Building extensible systems. APIs. Standard frameworks and
interfaces. Common web services. Things that allow data to flow
between points more easily.
The Next Web
If we know this, we can benefit by …
• Building extensible systems. APIs. Standard frameworks and
interfaces. Common web services. Things that allow data to flow
between points more easily.
• Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that
helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
The Next Web
If we know this, we can benefit by …
• Building extensible systems. APIs. Standard frameworks and
interfaces. Common web services. Things that allow data to flow
between points more easily.
• Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that
helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
• Building open systems. Open, standardised platforms make
extensible and adaptable easier.
The Next Web
If we know this, we can benefit by …
• Building extensible systems. APIs. Standard frameworks and
interfaces. Common web services. Things that allow data to flow
between points more easily.
• Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that
helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
• Building open systems. Open, standardised platforms make
extensible and adaptable easier.
• Building more systems. If we cannot know for sure what will
work, we should do more than 1 thing.
The Next Web
What might we see in the future?
• Solutions shared across multiple clients, collaborating to develop
better results (e.g., multiple charity clients sharing data to
develop big data prediction solutions).
The Next Web
What might we see in the future?
• Solutions shared across multiple clients, collaborating to develop
better results (e.g., multiple charity clients sharing data to
develop big data prediction solutions).
• Rapid prototypes, development of Minimal Viable Products, that
are released quickly, learnt from, and redeveloped.
The Next Web
What might we see in the future?
• Solutions shared across multiple clients, collaborating to develop
better results (e.g., multiple charity clients sharing data to
develop big data prediction solutions).
• Rapid prototypes, development of Minimal Viable Products, that
are released quickly, learnt from, and redeveloped.
• A website that has a genetic algorithm that constantly evolves its
IA to maximise conversion.
The Next Web
What might we see in the future now?
• US firm DataKind was set up with the expressed intention of
helping charities to find data professionals to help with data
analysis across multiple charities.
The Next Web
What might we see in the future now?
• Government Digital Services in the UK have been leading the
push, releasing work in an agile fashion, adapting to the chaos
caused by complex systems.
The Next Web
What might we see in the future now?
• A space antenna, designed by a genetic algorithm (in 2008). This
was a better design than anything designed by human-hand.
The Next Web
This is happening now
• The ability to accept you cannot understand frees you
• You can plan and build things differently. More successfully.
• And finally …
The Next Web
Answering “will it go viral”
I don’t know if it will go viral. In fact, I cannot know if it will go viral,
as the concept of viral spread is inherently a complex system that is
unfortunately not understandable by reviewing and understanding
its constituent parts. Therefore despite being able to review the
creative idea, despite having an excellent grasp of social media,
despite knowing the number of fans and followers your brand has
and despite knowing the amount of budget you have to spend on
media to kick start it [DEEP BREATH] I am unable to tell you if this
piece of work will go viral.
The Next Web
One last thing!! One-in-twenty
The Next Web
![Changing the Conversation around [Next steps or other info ... · Changing the Conversation around STEM Teaching [more space for info about your program] [Next steps or other info](https://img.pdfslide.us/doc/110x75/60377086d7de4e1d9205b70b/changing-the-conversation-around-next-steps-or-other-info-changing-the-conversation.jpg)
