Conventional Voting Behavior 2015

NCFEF 2015 CVB RATINGS

The NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB) rating is derived using actual election results from every statewide race since 2008 in which candidates ran on a partisan basis. Election result tabulations were made for every legislative district (13 Congressional districts, and 120 House and 50 Senate districts for the NC General Assembly) and done in a way to ensure split precinct data was assigned to the correct districts.

It is important to note that NCFEF’s CVB rating is based on historical voting results, and is intended to show the degree to which voters in a particular district have favored either Republican or Democratic candidates in general elections in the past. It is not intended to be a singular predictor of outcomes in 2016 per se.

For purpose of clarity, NCFEF uses five CVB designations:

• Strong Republican/Democrat represents a partisan performance advantage of 6% or more, meaning the district usually favors candidates of a particular political party.

• Lean Republican/Democrat represents a partisan performance advantage of more than 3% but less than 6%, meaning the district mostly favors candidates of a particular political party.

• Competitive represents a partisan performance advantage that varies from 3% for Republicans to 3% for Democrats, meaning the district may swing between support for the two political parties’ candidates.

There are many other factors that play a role in elections, including perceptions among local voters of the candidates running, the extent to which campaigns are well-run and have sufficient resources to communicate effectively with voters, economic or national political factors influencing voter perceptions and attitudes locally, and the extent to which other groups - through independent expenditure or other campaign activity - are operating within the district, just to name a few.

CVB Methodology

BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL

INCUMBENT HOME COUNTY COUNTIES IN DIST DEM CAND 2014 % REP CAND 2014 % LIB %

NC HOUSE 1 LR LR 2.3% Bob Steinburg Chowan Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Pasquotank (Part), Perquimans, Tyrrell Garry Meiggs 39% Bob Steinburg 61%

NC HOUSE 2 COMP COMP 2.3% Larry Yarborough Person Granville (Part, Person Ray Jeffers 43% Larry Yarborough 57%NC HOUSE 3 SR LR 2.5% Michael Speciale Craven Beaufort (Part), Craven (Part), Pamlico Whit Whitley 42% Michael Speciale 58%NC HOUSE 4 SR SR 4.5% Jimmy Dixon Duplin Duplin (Part), Wayne (Part) Jimmy Dixon 100%NC HOUSE 5 SD SD -1.0% Howard Hunter III Hertford Bertie, Gates, Hertford, Pasquotank (Part) Howard Hunter III 69% Sidney Pierce 31%NC HOUSE 6 LR COMP 2.0% Paul Tine Dare Beaufort (Part), Dare, Hyde, Washington Paul Tine 54% Mattie Lawson 46%NC HOUSE 7 SD SD -9.7% Bobbie Richardson Franklin Franklin (Part), Nash (Part) Bobbie Richardson 100%NC HOUSE 8 COMP COMP 6.1% Susan Martin Wilson Pitt (Part), Wilson (Part) Bobi Gregory 39% Susan Martin 61%NC HOUSE 9 LR LR 5.9% Brian Brown Pitt Pitt (Part) Uriah Ward 40% Brian Brown 60%

NC HOUSE 10 SR SR 2.8% John Bell Wayne Craven (Part), Greene (Part), Lenoir (Part), Wayne (Part) John Bell 100%

NC HOUSE 11 SD SD 5.3% Duane Hall Wake Wake (Part) Duane Hall 62% Ray Martin 38%NC HOUSE 12 SD SD -7.0% George Graham Lenoir Craven (Part), Greene (Part), Lenoir (Part) George Graham 100%NC HOUSE 13 SR SR -3.0% Pat McElraft Carteret Carteret, Jones Jim Nolan 30% Pat McElraft 70%NC HOUSE 14 SR SR 2.1% George G. Cleveland Onslow Onslow (Part) George Cleveland 100%NC HOUSE 15 SR SR -3.5% Phil Shepard Onslow Onslow (Part) Phil Shepard 100%NC HOUSE 16 SR SR 1.8% Chris Millis Pender Onslow (Part), Pender Steve Unger 34% Chris Millis 66%NC HOUSE 17 SR SR 2.6% Frank Iler Brunswick Brunswick (Part) Charles Warren 33% Frank Iler 67%NC HOUSE 18 SD SD -0.5% Susi Hamilton New Hanover Brunswick (Part), New Hanover (Part) Susi Hamilton 100%NC HOUSE 19 SR SR -0.3% Ted Davis, Jr. New Hanover New Hanover (Part) Ted Davis Jr. 100%NC HOUSE 20 SR SR 3.1% Rick Catlin New Hanover New Hanover (Part) Betsy Jordan 38% Rick Catlin 62%NC HOUSE 21 SD SD -0.3% Larry M. Bell Sampson Duplin (Part), Sampson (Part), Wayne (Part) Larry Bell 100%

NC HOUSE 22 COMP COMP 1.6% William D. Brisson Bladen Bladen (Part), Johnston (Part), Sampson (Part) William Brisson 52% Ken Smith 48%

NC HOUSE 23 SD SD -2.6% Shelly Willingham Edgecombe Edgecombe, Martin Shelly Willingham 100%NC HOUSE 24 SD SD 0.7% Jean Farmer-Butterfield Wilson Pitt (Part), Wilson (Part) Jean Farmer-Butterfield 100%NC HOUSE 25 SR SR 1.8% Jeff Collins Nash Franklin (Part), Nash (Part) Charles Johnson 32% Jeff Collins 68%NC HOUSE 26 SR SR 10.7% Leo Daughtry Johnston Johnston (Part) Leo Daughtry 100%NC HOUSE 27 SD SD -8.7% Michael Wray Northampton Halifax, Northampton Michael Wray 100%NC HOUSE 28 SR SR 6.0% J.H. Langdon Johnston Johnston (Part) J.H. Langdon 100%NC HOUSE 29 SD SD 0.4% Larry Hall Durham Durham (Part) Larry Hall 100%NC HOUSE 30 SD SD 6.1% Paul Luebke Durham Durham (Part) Paul Luebke 100%NC HOUSE 31 SD SD 3.1% Mickey Michaux Durham Durham (Part) Mickey Michaux 88% Todd Conard 12%NC HOUSE 32 SD SD -1.6% Nathan Baskerville Vance Granville (Part), Vance, Warren Nathan Baskerville 100%NC HOUSE 33 SD SD 7.2% Rosa Gill Wake Wake (Part) Rosa Gill 87% Perry Whitlock 13%NC HOUSE 34 SD SD 2.0% Grier Martin Wake Wake (Part) Grier Martin 100%NC HOUSE 35 LR LR 7.8% Chris Malone Wake Wake (Part) Brian Mountcastle 44% Chris Malone 56%NC HOUSE 36 LR SR 6.3% Nelson Dollar Wake Wake (Part) Lisa Baker 46% Nelson Dollar 54%


BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL


NC HOUSE 37 SR SR 12.1% Paul Stam Wake Wake (Part) Paul Stam 100%NC HOUSE 38 SD SD 9.3% Yvonne Lewis Holley Wake Wake (Part) Yvonne Holley 80% Joe Thompson 20%NC HOUSE 39 SD SD 6.2% Darren Jackson Wake Wake (Part) Darren Jackson 100%NC HOUSE 40 LR SR 5.2% Marilyn Avila Wake Wake (Part) Margaret Broadwell 46% Marilyn Avila 54%NC HOUSE 41 COMP COMP 14.8% Gale Adcock Wake Wake (Part) Gale Adcock 51% Tom Murry 49%NC HOUSE 42 SD SD -2.6% Marvin W. Lucas Cumberland Cumberland (Part) Marvin Lucas 100%NC HOUSE 43 SD SD -0.9% Elmer Floyd Cumberland Cumberland (Part) Elmer Floyd 100%NC HOUSE 44 LD LD -2.1% Rick Glazier Cumberland Cumberland (Part) Rick Glazier 52% Richard Button 48%NC HOUSE 45 COMP LR 5.2% John Szoka Cumberland Cumberland (Part) John Szoka 100%NC HOUSE 46 LD SD 1.8% Ken Waddell Columbus Bladen (Part), Columbus, Robeson (Part) Ken Waddell 53% Brenden Jones 47%NC HOUSE 47 SD SD 2.7% Charles Graham Robeson Robeson (Part) Charles Graham 100%

NC HOUSE 48 SD SD 0.9% Garland E. Pierce Scotland Hoke (Part), Richmond (Part), Robeson (Part), Scotland (Part) Garland Pierce 100%

NC HOUSE 49 COMP LR 1.9% Gary Pendleton Wake Wake (Part) Kim Hanchette 48% Gary Pendleton 52%NC HOUSE 50 SD SD 4.1% Graig R. Meyer Orange Durham (Part, Orange (Part) Graig Meyer 57% Rod Chaney 43%NC HOUSE 51 LR LR -2.2% Brad Salmon Harnett Harnett (Part), Lee (Part) Brad Salmon 54% Mike Stone 46%NC HOUSE 52 SR SR -2.9% Jamie Boles Moore Moore (Part) Jamie Boles 100%NC HOUSE 53 LR LR 5.3% David Lewis Harnett Harnett (Part) Susan Byerly 44% David Lewis 56%NC HOUSE 54 LD LD 1.8% Robert Reives Lee Chatham and Lee (Part) Robert Reives II 56% Andy Wilkie 44%NC HOUSE 55 SR SR -8.3% Mark Brody Union Anson, Union (Part) Kim Hargett 41% Mark Brody 59%NC HOUSE 56 SD SD 4.1% Verla Insko Orange Orange (Part) Verla Insko 81% Dave Carter 19%NC HOUSE 57 SD SD 0.4% Pricey Harrison Guilford Guilford (Part) Pricey Harrison 100%NC HOUSE 58 SD SD -2.1% Ralph Johnson Guilford Guilford (Part) Ralph Johnson 100%NC HOUSE 59 SR SR 7.1% Jon Hardister Guilford Guilford (Part) Scott Jones 36% Jon Hardister 60% 4%NC HOUSE 60 SD SD -0.6% Cecil Brockman Guilford Guilford (Part) Cecil Brockman 100%NC HOUSE 61 SR SR 5.0% John Faircloth Guilford Guilford (Part) Ron Weatherford 33% John Faircloth 67%NC HOUSE 62 SR SR 7.8% John Blust Guilford Guilford (Part) Sal Leone 38% John Blust 62%NC HOUSE 63 LR LR -7.4% Steve Ross Alamance Alamance (Part) Ian Blatutis 43% Steve Ross 57%NC HOUSE 64 SR LR -5.8% Dennis Riddell Alamance Alamance (Part) Dennis Riddell 100%NC HOUSE 65 LR LR -2.1% Bert Jones Rockingham Caswell, Rockingham (Part) Elretha Perkins 35% Bert Jones 65%

NC HOUSE 66 LD SD 3.7% Ken Goodman Richmond Hoke (Part), Montgomery (Part), Richmond (Part) Robeson (Part), Scotland (Part) Ken Goodman 100%

NC HOUSE 67 SR SR 1.3% Justin P. Burr Stanly Montgomery (Part), Stanly Nalin Mehta 41% Justin Burr 59%NC HOUSE 68 SR SR 2.4% Craig Horn Union Union (Part) Craig Horn 100%NC HOUSE 69 SR SR -1.2% Dean Arp Union Union (Part) Dean Arp 100%NC HOUSE 70 SR SR -6.2% Pat Hurley Randolph Randolph (Part) Pat Hurley 100%NC HOUSE 71 SD SD -4.6% Evelyn Terry Forsyth Forsyth (Part) Evelyn Terry 78% Kris McCann 22%NC HOUSE 72 SD SD -6.3% Ed Hanes Forsyth Forsyth (Part) Ed Hanes 100%NC HOUSE 73 SR SR -5.3% Lee Zachary Yadkin Alexander, Wilkes (Part), Yadkin Lee Zachary 100%


BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL


NC HOUSE 74 SR SR -1.5% Debra Conrad Forsyth Forsyth (Part) Mary Dickinson 37% Debra Conrad 63%NC HOUSE 75 SR SR 0.9% Donny Lambeth Forsyth Forsyth (Part) David Gordon 37% Donny Lambeth 63%NC HOUSE 76 SR SR -1.8% Carl Ford Rowan Cabarrus (Part), Rowan (Part) Carl Ford 100%NC HOUSE 77 SR SR -4.2% Harry Warren Rowan Rowan (Part) Harry Warren 100%NC HOUSE 78 SR SR -5.8% Allen McNeill Randolph Moore (Part), Randolph (Part) Allen McNeill 100%NC HOUSE 79 SR SR -0.4% Julia Howard Davie Davie, Forsyth (Part) Cristina Vazquez 30% Julia Howard 70%NC HOUSE 80 SR SR 0.6% Sam Watford Davidson Davidson (Part) Sam Watford 100%NC HOUSE 81 SR SR -0.9% Rayne Brown Davidson Davidson (Part) Rayne Brown 100%NC HOUSE 82 SR SR 5.4% Larry Pittman Cabarrus Cabarrus (Part) Earle Schecter 41% Larry Pittman 59%NC HOUSE 83 SR SR -1.0% Linda Johnson Cabarrus Cabarrus (Part) Linda Johnson 100%NC HOUSE 84 SR SR -5.0% Rena W. Turner Iredell Iredell (Part) Gene Mahaffey 30% Rena Turner 70%NC HOUSE 85 SR SR -4.4% Josh Dobson McDowell Avery, McDowell, Mitchell JR Edwards 25% Josh Dobson 75%NC HOUSE 86 SR SR -5.6% Hugh Blackwell Burke Burke (Part) Jim Cates 36% Hugh Blackwell 64%NC HOUSE 87 SR SR 0.7% George Robinson Caldwell Caldwell Edgar Starnes 100%NC HOUSE 88 SR SR -6.6% Rob Bryan Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Marge Storch 45% Rob Bryan 55%NC HOUSE 89 SR SR -4.4% Mitchell Setzer Catawba Catawba (Part) Mitchel Setzer 100%NC HOUSE 90 SR SR -7.3% Sarah Stevens Surry Surry, Wilkes (Part) John Wiles 32% Sarah Stevens 68%NC HOUSE 91 SR SR 0.4% Bryan Holloway Stokes Rockingham (Part), Stokes Bryan Holloway 100%NC HOUSE 92 COMP COMP 9.1% Charles Jeter Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Robin Bradford 47% Charles Jeter 53%NC HOUSE 93 LR LR -3.1% Jonathan Jordan Ashe Ashe, Watauga Sue Counts 47% Jonathan Jordan 53%NC HOUSE 94 SR SR -7.6% Jeffrey Elmore Wilkes Alleghany, Wilkes (Part) Jeffery Elmore 100%NC HOUSE 95 SR SR 7.1% John Fraley Iredell Iredell (Part) John Fraley 100%NC HOUSE 96 SR SR -7.0% Jay Adams Catawba Catawba (Part) Cliff Moone 33% Jay Adams 67%NC HOUSE 97 SR SR -2.6% Jason Saine Lincoln Lincoln Rosemary Hubbard 29% Jason Saine 71%NC HOUSE 98 SR SR 6.5% John Bradford Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Natasha Marcus 45% John Bradford 55%NC HOUSE 99 SD SD 1.9% Rodney Moore Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Rodney Moore 100%NC HOUSE 100 SD SD -2.9% Tricia Cotham Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Tricia Cotham 100%NC HOUSE 101 SD SD 3.8% Beverly Earle Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Beverly Earle 100%NC HOUSE 102 SD SD -2.2% Becky Carney Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Becky Carney 100%NC HOUSE 103 SR SR -1.5% William Brawley Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Bill Brawley 100%NC HOUSE 104 SR SR -6.0% Dan Bishop Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Dan Bishop 75% 25%NC HOUSE 105 SR SR 4.5% Jacqueline Schaffer Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Jacqueline Schaffer 100%NC HOUSE 106 SD SD -0.3% Carla Cunningham Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Carla Cunningham 87% Trey Lowe 13%NC HOUSE 107 SD SD 2.3% Kelly Alexander Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Kelly Alexander 100%NC HOUSE 108 SR SR -4.1% John A. Torbett Gaston Gaston (Part) John Torbett 100%NC HOUSE 109 SR SR -6.7% Dana Bumgardner Gaston Gaston (Part) Dana Bumgardner 100%NC HOUSE 110 SR SR -7.0% Kelly Hastings Gaston Cleveland (Part), Gaston (Part) Kelly Hastings 100%NC HOUSE 111 SR SR -6.8% Tim Moore Cleveland Cleveland (Part) Tim Moore 100%


NC HOUSE 112 SR SR -2.8% Mike Hager Rutherford Burke (Part), Rutherford Lisa Bralley 41% Mike Hager 59%NC HOUSE 113 SR SR 0.2% Chris Whitmire Transylvania Henderson (Part), Polk, and Transylvania Norm Bossert 37% Chris Whitmire 63%NC HOUSE 114 SD SD 4.3% Susan C. Fisher Buncombe Buncombe (Part) Susan Fisher 100%NC HOUSE 115 COMP COMP 1.3% John Ager Buncombe Buncombe (Part) John Ager 51% Nathan Ramsey 49%NC HOUSE 116 LR LR -2.5% Brian Turner Buncombe Buncombe (Part) Brian Turner 52% Tim Moffitt 48%NC HOUSE 117 SR SR -0.5% Chuck McGrady Henderson Henderson (Part) Chuck McGrady 75% 25%NC HOUSE 118 LR LR -6.5% Michele Presnell Yancey Haywood (Part), Madison, Yancey Dean Hicks 49% Michele Presnell 51%NC HOUSE 119 COMP COMP -5.7% Joe Sam Queen Haywood Haywood (Part), Jackson, Swain Joe Sam Queen 53% Mike Clampitt 47%NC HOUSE 120 SR SR -0.7% Roger West Cherokee Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Macon Roger West 100%

SR = Strong Republican LR = Leans Republican COMP = Competitive LD = Leans Democrat SD = Strong Democrat = CVB rating changed = increase in Democratic performance 2014 v 2012 = increase in Republican performance 2014 v 2012 = no significant change in partisan performance 2014 v 2012

DIST POP % IDEAL = difference from ideal district population using 2013 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates, shows relative population growth/decline within current district boundaries

BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL



BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL


NC SEN 1 COMP COMP -3.9% Bill Cook Beaufort Beaufort, Camden, Currituck, Dare, Gates, Hyde, Pasquotank, Perquimans Stan White 47% Bill Cook 53%

NC SEN 2 SR SR 0.5% Norm Sanderson Pamlico Carteret, Craven, Pamlico Carr Ipock 40% Norm Sanderson 60%

NC SEN 3 SD SD -0.7% Erica Smith-Ingram Edgecombe Bertie, Chowan, Edgecombe, Hertford, Martin, Northampton, Tyrell, Washington Erica Smith-Ingram 100%

NC SEN 4 SD SD 1.8% Angela Bryant Nash Halifax, Nash (Part), Vance, Warren, jWilson (Part) Angela Bryant 66% Richard Scott 34%

NC SEN 5 SD SD -2.9% Don Davis Greene Greene, Lenoir (Part), Pitt (Part), Wayne (Part) Don Davis 100%

NC SEN 6 SR SR 3.8% Harry Brown Onslow Jones, Onslow Harry Brown 100%NC SEN 7 SR SR -0.7% Louis Pate Wayne Lenoir (Part), Pitt (Part), Wayne (Part) Erik Anderson 31% Louis Pate 69%

NC SEN 8 LR LR -7.2% Bill Rabon Brunswick Bladen, Brunswick, New Hanover (Part), Pender Ernie Ward 43% Bill Rabon 57%

NC SEN 9 LR LR 2.1% Michael Lee New Hanover New Hanover (Part) Elizabeth Redenbaugh 45% Michael Lee 55%NC SEN 10 LR LR -0.6% Brent Jackson Sampson Duplin, Johnston (Part), Sampson Donald Rains 38% Brent Jackson 62%NC SEN 11 LR SR -3.7% Buck Newton Wilson Johnston (Part), Nash (Part), Wilson (Part) Buck Newton 100%NC SEN 12 LR LR 8.6% Ronald Rabin Harnett Harnett, Johnston (Part), Lee Joe Langley 44% Ronald Rabin 56%NC SEN 13 SD SD 3.5% Jane Smith Robeson Columbus, Robeson Jane Smith 63% Bernard White 37%NC SEN 14 SD SD 1.1% Dan Blue Wake Wake (Part) Dan Blue 100%NC SEN 15 LR LR 6.2% John Alexander Jr Wake Wake (Part) Tom Bradshaw 49.56% John Alexander, Jr. 50.44%NC SEN 16 SD SD 7.0% Josh Stein Wake Wake (Part) Josh Stein 67% Molotov Mitchell 33%NC SEN 17 LR LR 0.8% Tamara Barringer Wake Wake (Part) Bryan Fulghum 42% Tamara Barringer 58%NC SEN 18 COMP COMP -4.2% Chad Barefoot Wake Franklin, Wake (Part) Sarah Crawford 47% Chad Barefoot 53%NC SENNC SEN

1920

COMP COMP -9.2% Wesley Meredith Cumberland Cumberland (Part) Billy Richardson 46% Wesley Meredith

Herman Joubert

54%8.6% Floyd McKissick Durham Durham (Part), Granville Floyd McKissick 100%

NC SEN 21 SD SD 2.7% Ben Clark Hoke Cumberland (Part), Hoke Ben Clark 100%NC SEN 22 SD SD -4.2% Mike Woodard Durham Caswell, Durham (Part), Person Mike Woodard 67%NC SEN 23 SD SD 1.2% Valerie Foushee Orange Chatham, Orange Valerie Foushee 68% Mary Lopez-Carter

Rick Gunn

Tom McInnisPhil BergerTrudy Wade

Jerry Tilman

NC SEN 24 SR SR 3.2% Rick Gunn Alamance Alamance, Randolph (Part)

NC SEN 25 LR COMP -4.9% Tom McInnis Richmond Anson, Richmond, Rowan (Part), Scotland, Stanly Gene McLaurin 47%

NC SEN 26 SR SR -1.6% Phil Berger Rockingham Guilford (Part), Rockingham William Osborne 41%NC SEN 27 LR SR -2.7% Trudy Wade Guilford Guilford (Part)NC SEN 28 SD SD -3.6% Gladys Robinson Guilford Guilford (Part) Gladys Robinson 100%NC SEN 29 SR SR 1.5% Jerry Tillman Randolph Moore, Randolph (Part) Tommy Davis 29%NC SEN 30 SR SR 3.7% Shirley Randleman Wilkes Stokes, Surry, Wilkes Eva Ingle 29% Shirley Randleman

BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL



SD SD

3%

33%32%

100%

50%

59%100%

71%71%

BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL


NC SEN 1 COMP COMP -3.9% Bill Cook Beaufort Beaufort, Camden, Currituck, Dare, Gates, Hyde, Pasquotank, Perquimans Stan White 47% Bill Cook 53%

NC SEN 2 SR SR 0.5% Norm Sanderson Pamlico Carteret, Craven, Pamlico Carr Ipock 40% Norm Sanderson 60%

NC SEN 3 SD SD -0.7% Erica Smith-Ingram Edgecombe Bertie, Chowan, Edgecombe, Hertford, Martin, Northampton, Tyrell, Washington Erica Smith-Ingram 100%

NC SEN 4 SD SD 1.8% Angela Bryant Nash Halifax, Nash (Part), Vance, Warren, jWilson (Part) Angela Bryant 66% Richard Scott 34%

NC SEN 5 SD SD -2.9% Don Davis Greene Greene, Lenoir (Part), Pitt (Part), Wayne (Part) Don Davis 100%

NC SEN 6 SR SR 3.8% Harry Brown Onslow Jones, Onslow Harry Brown 100%NC SEN 7 SR SR -0.7% Louis Pate Wayne Lenoir (Part), Pitt (Part), Wayne (Part) Erik Anderson 31% Louis Pate 69%

NC SEN 8 LR LR -7.2% Bill Rabon Brunswick Bladen, Brunswick, New Hanover (Part), Pender Ernie Ward 43% Bill Rabon 57%

NC SEN 9 LR LR 2.1% Michael Lee New Hanover New Hanover (Part) Elizabeth Redenbaugh 45% Michael Lee 55%NC SEN 10 LR LR -0.6% Brent Jackson Sampson Duplin, Johnston (Part), Sampson Donald Rains 38% Brent Jackson 62%NC SEN 11 LR SR -3.7% Buck Newton Wilson Johnston (Part), Nash (Part), Wilson (Part) Buck Newton 100%NC SEN 12 LR LR 8.6% Ronald Rabin Harnett Harnett, Johnston (Part), Lee Joe Langley 44% Ronald Rabin 56%NC SEN 13 SD SD 3.5% Jane Smith Robeson Columbus, Robeson Jane Smith 63% Bernard White 37%NC SEN 14 SD SD 1.1% Dan Blue Wake Wake (Part) Dan Blue 100%NC SEN 15 LR LR 6.2% John Alexander Jr. Wake Wake (Part) Tom Bradshaw 49.56% John Alexander, Jr. 50.44%NC SEN 16 SD SD 7.0% Josh Stein Wake Wake (Part) Josh Stein 67% Molotov Mitchell 33%NC SEN 17 LR LR 0.8% Tamara Barringer Wake Wake (Part) Bryan Fulghum 42% Tamara Barringer 58%NC SEN 18 COMP COMP -4.2% Chad Barefoot Wake Franklin, Wake (Part) Sarah Crawford 47% Chad Barefoot 53%NC SENNC SEN

1920

COMP COMP -9.2% Wesley Meredith Cumberland Cumberland (Part) Billy Richardson 46% Wesley Meredith

Herman Joubert

54%8.6% Floyd McKissick Durham Durham (Part), Granville Floyd McKissick 100%

NC SEN 21 SD SD 2.7% Ben Clark Hoke Cumberland (Part), Hoke Ben Clark 100%NC SEN 22 SD SD -4.2% Mike Woodard Durham Caswell, Durham (Part), Person Mike Woodard 67%NC SEN 23 SD SD 1.2% Valerie Foushee Orange Chatham, Orange Valerie Foushee 68% Mary Lopez-Carter

Rick Gunn

Tom McInnisPhil BergerTrudy Wade

Jerry Tilman

NC SEN 24 SR SR 3.2% Rick Gunn Alamance Alamance, Randolph (Part)

NC SEN 25 LR COMP -4.9% Tom McInnis Richmond Anson, Richmond, Rowan (Part), Scotland, Stanly Gene McLaurin 47%

NC SEN 26 SR SR -1.6% Phil Berger Rockingham Guilford (Part), Rockingham William Osborne 41%NC SEN 27 LR SR -2.7% Trudy Wade Guilford Guilford (Part)NC SEN 28 SD SD -3.6% Gladys Robinson Guilford Guilford (Part) Gladys Robinson 100%NC SEN 29 SR SR 1.5% Jerry Tillman Randolph Moore, Randolph (Part) Tommy Davis 29%NC SEN 30 SR SR 3.7% Shirley Randleman Wilkes Stokes, Surry, Wilkes Eva Ingle 29% Shirley Randleman

BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL



SD SD

3%

33%32%

100%

50%

59%100%

71%71%

NC SEN 31 SR SR 0.0% Joyce Krawiec Forsyth Forsyth (Part), Yadkin John Motsinger 36% Joyce Krawiec 64%

NC SEN 32 SD SD 6.0% Paul Lowe Forsyth Forsyth (Part) Earline Parmon 100%NC SEN 33 SR SR -0.7% Stan Bingham Davidson Davidson, Montgomery Stan Bingham 100%NC SEN 34 SR SR 2.2% Andrew C. Brock Davie Davie, Iredell (Part), Rowan (Part) Connie Johnson 34% Andrew Brock 66%NC SEN 35 SR SR -2.4% Tommy Tucker Union Union (Part) Tommy Tucker 100%NC SEN 36 SR SR 0.7% Fletcher Hartsell Cabarrus Cabarrus, Union (Part) Fletcher Hartsell 100%NC SEN 37 SD SD 5.1% Jeff Jackson Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Jeff Jackson 100%NC SEN 38 SD SD -2.7% Joel Ford Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Joel Ford 80% Richard Rivette 20%NC SEN 39 SR SR 3.8% Bob Rucho Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Bob Rucho 100%NC SEN 40 SD SD 0.5% Joyce Waddell Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Joyce Waddell 100%NC SEN 41 SR SR -2.5% Jeff Tarte Mecklenburg Mecklenburg (Part) Latrice McRae 40% Jeff Tarte 60%NC SEN 42 SR SR 0.6% Andy Wells Catawba Alexander, Catawba P. Hensley (UNA) 41% Andy Wells 59%NC SEN 43 SR SR 7.3% Kathy Harrington Gaston Gaston (Part) Kathy Harrington 100%NC SEN 44 SR SR -2.9% David Curtis Lincoln Gaston (Part), Iredell (Part), Lincoln David Curtis 100%NC SEN 45 SR SR -4.9% Dan Soucek Watauga Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Caldwell, Watauga Jim Sponenberg 40% Dan Soucek 60%NC SEN 46 SR SR -4.7% Warren Daniel Burke Burke, Cleveland Emily Church 41% Warren Daniel 59%

NC SEN 47 SR SR -2.1% Ralph Hise Mitchell Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Yancey Ralph Hise 100%

NC SEN 48 SR SR 1.1% Tom Apodaca Henderson Buncombe (Part), Henderson, Transylvania Rick Wood 43% Tom Apodaca 57%NC SEN 49 SD SD -0.1% Terry Van Duyn Buncombe Buncombe (Part) Terry Van Duyn 61% Mark Crawford 39%

NC SEN 50 SR SR -0.1% Jim Davis Macon Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Jackson, Macon, Swain Jane Hipps 46% Jim Davis 54%

BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL





BODY DIST 2013 CVB

2015 CVB SHIFT

DIST POP % IDEAL


US HOUSE 1 SD SD -4.3% G. K. Butterfield Wilson

Beaufort, Bertie, Chowan, Craven, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Gates, Granville,

Greene, Halifax, Hertford, Lenoir, Martin, Nash, Northhampton, Pasquotank,

Perquimans, Pitt, Vance, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Wilson

G. K. Butterfield 73% Arthur Rich 27%

US HOUSE 2 SR SR 2.7% Renee Ellmers Harnett Alamance, Chatham, Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Moore, Randolph, Wake Clay Aiken 41% Renee Ellmers 59%

US HOUSE 3 LR LR -1.1% Walter Jones Pitt

Beaufort, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Gates, Greene, Hyde, Jones,

Lenoir, Martin, New Hanover, Onslow, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Pender, Perquimans,

Pitt, Tyrrell, Washington

Marshall Adame 32% Walter Jones 68%

US HOUSE 4 SD SD 1.6% David Price Orange Alamance, Orange, Durham, Wake, Harnett, Chatham, Cumberland David Price 75% Paul Wright 25%

US HOUSE 5 SR SR -1.5% Virginia Foxx WataugaAlexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Catawba,

Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Iredell, Rowan, Watauga, Wilkes, Yadkin

Josh Brannon 39% Virginia Foxx 61%

US HOUSE 6 SR SR 0.4% Mark Walker GuilfordAlmanance, Caswell, Durham, Granville, Guilford, Orange, Person, Rockingham,

Stokes, SurryLaura Fjeld 41% Mark Walker 59%

US HOUSE 7 LR LR 0.7% David Rouzer RobesonBladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Cumberland,

Duplin, Hoke, Johnston, Lenoir, New Hanover, Pender, Robeson, Sampson

Jonathan Barfield 37% David Rouzer 59% 3%

US HOUSE 8 LR LR -1.8% Richard Hudson CabarrusAnson, Cabarrus, Davidson, Mecklenburg,

Montgomery, Randolph, Richmond, Robeson, Rowan, Scotland, Stanly, Union

Antonio Blue 35% Richard Hudson 65%

US HOUSE 9 SR SR 3.0% Robert Pittenger Mecklenburg Iredell, Mecklenburg, Union Robert Pittenger 100%

US HOUSE 10 SR SR -2.4% Patrick McHenry Gaston Buncombe, Catawba, Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Polk, Rutherford Tate MacQueen 39% Patrick McHenry 61%

US HOUSE 11 SR SR -2.7% Mark Meadows Macon

Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson,

Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Swain, Transylvania, Yancey

Tom Hill 37% Mark Meadows 63%

US HOUSE 12 SD SD 2.1% Alma Adams Guilford Cabarrus, Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Mecklenburg, Rowan Alma Adams 75% Vince Coakley 25%

US HOUSE 13 LR SR 3.3% George Holding Wake Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville, Nash, Vance, Wake, Wayne, Wilson Brenda Cleary 43% George Holding 57%




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Conventional Voting Behavior 2015