Voting Behavior

Voting BehaviorVoting BehaviorPOLS 125: Political Parties & POLS 125: Political Parties &

ElectionsElections““I never vote for anyone. I always vote I never vote for anyone. I always vote

against.”against.”——W.C. Fields (1879-1946)W.C. Fields (1879-1946)

Models of Voting BehaviorModels of Voting Behavior Sociological Sociological – Vote choice is a function – Vote choice is a function

of group membership.of group membership. Socio-PsychologicalSocio-Psychological – Vote choice is the – Vote choice is the

product of long-standing identifications.product of long-standing identifications. StrategicStrategic – Vote choice is a function of – Vote choice is a function of

the spatial distance between a voter’s the spatial distance between a voter’s policy preferences and the candidate’s policy preferences and the candidate’s issue position.issue position.

What is Group What is Group Identification?Identification?

SELF-CATEGORIZATION:SELF-CATEGORIZATION: Self- Self-awareness of one’s objective awareness of one’s objective membership in a groupmembership in a group

AFFINITY:AFFINITY: Psychological sense of Psychological sense of attachment to the group attachment to the group

Examples…Examples… African-AmericanAfrican-American Working classWorking class Single MomSingle Mom College studentCollege student RepublicanRepublican EnvironmentalistEnvironmentalist CatholicCatholic Senior CitizenSenior Citizen

These identities are often ACTIVATED by political parties and their candidates.

Vote Choice for President by Vote Choice for President by GenderGender

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002004

20080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent voting for Democratic candidate

Men Women

Source: National Election Studies, various years; 2008 data drawn from exit polls.

*

Why should there be a “gender Why should there be a “gender gap”?gap”?

Physical and sociological Physical and sociological differences?differences?

Different political Different political priorities?priorities?

Different policy Different policy preferences?preferences?

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent responding

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."

Trends in Partisan Identification Among Trends in Partisan Identification Among Women, 1952-2004Women, 1952-2004

Trends in Partisan Identification Among Trends in Partisan Identification Among Men, 1952-2004Men, 1952-2004

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0

10

20

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60

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Percent responding

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."

“Which political party do you thinkwould do a better job?”

ISSUE MEN WOMENHandling the nation’s economy R by 8% points D by 10%

pointsHandling foreign affairs R by 20% points D by 2%

pointsMaking health care more

affordableD by 26% points D by 42%

pointsReforming the welfare system R by 11% points D by 17%

pointsHandling the problem of

povertyD by 23% points D by 34%

pointsHandling the budget deficit R by 14% points D by 2%

pointsHandling the problem of

pollutionand the environment

D by 32% points D by 33% points

Dealing with the crime problem R by 12% points D by 5% points

Party Strengths Among Male Party Strengths Among Male and Female Votersand Female Voters

Top 10 Signs You’re a Security Top 10 Signs You’re a Security MomMom

1.1. Your attack dog has a bin Laden chew toy. Your attack dog has a bin Laden chew toy. 2.2. You base your SUV purchase on how many You base your SUV purchase on how many

places there are to conceal a weapon. places there are to conceal a weapon. 3.3. Your neighborhood watch complains you Your neighborhood watch complains you

don’t leave any perps for them. don’t leave any perps for them. 4.4. You’ll vote for Bush because the other guy You’ll vote for Bush because the other guy

is a wussy. is a wussy. 5.5. You traded in your Gucci for the M-30 You traded in your Gucci for the M-30

Leather Gun Purse. Leather Gun Purse. 6.6. The guys at the range call you ‘Sarge’. The guys at the range call you ‘Sarge’. 7.7. You send your kids to Judo Camp. You send your kids to Judo Camp. 8.8. Your son quits the Boy Scouts because Your son quits the Boy Scouts because

they were “amateurs”. (MP personal they were “amateurs”. (MP personal favorite) favorite)

9.9. Monday is “MRE Night”. Monday is “MRE Night”. 10.10. You DO wear combat boots.You DO wear combat boots.

Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008

Did women support Sarah Palin?

Did blacks support Barack Obama?


2008 2008 Exit Exit PollsPolls

It turns out that the biggest deal about racial and gender identity in the campaign is that, especially to younger Americans who live and work in a vastly changed country, it isn’t such a very big deal after all.”

— Matt Bai, “Retro Identity Politics”

“What are we left with, then, as the identity-politics election of 2008 comes to a close? We have a Republican Party more committed than ever to a fetishized picture of working-class white maleness and unthreatening womanhood. We have a Democratic Party freshly aware of how difficult it is to look honestly at the history and reality of race and gender -- but also aware of how powerful those forces are. We've elected our first African American president, but we've done more than that. We've opened up a rawer, more meaningful national conversation about identity than we've had since the heyday of the civil-rights and women's lib movements. Race, gender, and their discontents haven't gone away. The fact that we're talking about them again? That's progress.”

— Dana Goldstein, “The Identity Politics Election”

vs.


"Oprah i

s a

Traitor!

!!"

"For the first time in history we actually have a chance at putting a woman in the white house and Oprah backs the black MAN. She's choosing her race over her gender – hypocrisy at its finest!!” What happens when social identities collide?

Vote for President by Race, 1952-Vote for President by Race, 1952-20042004

19521956

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002002

20040

20

40

60

80

100

Percent voting for Democratic candidate

WhiteBlack

Source: National Election Study, various years

Racial Resentment?Racial Resentment?“There is an inherent feeling among many in this country that an African-American should not be president.”

— Jimmy Carter

The Youth VoteThe Youth Vote There are 43 million U.S. citizens There are 43 million U.S. citizens

between the ages 18-30.between the ages 18-30. 64% of 18-30 year old citizens are 64% of 18-30 year old citizens are

registered to vote.registered to vote. 18-30 year olds make up 24% of 18-30 year olds make up 24% of

total pool of eligible voters. total pool of eligible voters. The youth vote increased by 4.6 The youth vote increased by 4.6

million in 2004. Voters under the million in 2004. Voters under the age of 30 made up 17% of the age of 30 made up 17% of the electorate in 2004—roughly the electorate in 2004—roughly the same proportion as in 2000.same proportion as in 2000.

In 2004, young voters preferred In 2004, young voters preferred Kerry to Bush by a margin of 54%-Kerry to Bush by a margin of 54%-45%.45%.

"A man who is not a "A man who is not a socialist at 20 has no heart; socialist at 20 has no heart; a man who is still a a man who is still a socialist at 40 has no socialist at 40 has no head." head."

——Winston ChurchillWinston Churchill

Generational PoliticsGenerational Politics Life-cycle effectsLife-cycle effects

MaturationMaturation Role transitionRole transition

Period effectsPeriod effects Great DepressionGreat Depression Vietnam WarVietnam War 9/119/11

Cohort effects Cohort effects ““Greatest Generation,” 1901-1924Greatest Generation,” 1901-1924 Silent Generation, 1925-1945 Silent Generation, 1925-1945 Baby Boomers, 1946-1964Baby Boomers, 1946-1964 Generation X, 1965-1980Generation X, 1965-1980 Reagan Babies, 1980-1988Reagan Babies, 1980-1988

Voter Turnout by Age, 2004Voter Turnout by Age, 2004% REGISTERED% REGISTERED % TURNOUT% TURNOUT

Ages 18-24Ages 18-24 52%52% 42%42%

Ages 25-44Ages 25-44 60%60% 52%52%

Ages 45-64Ages 45-64 73%73% 67%67%

Ages 65-74Ages 65-74 77%77% 71%71%

Ages 75+Ages 75+ 77%77% 67%67%

TotalTotal 66%66% 58%58%

Voter Turnout by AgeVoter Turnout by Age

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100

Chronological age

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How Apathetic?How Apathetic?

17% of students were interested in “influencing 17% of students were interested in “influencing the political structure” (58% of Baby Boomers the political structure” (58% of Baby Boomers said the same in 1966).said the same in 1966).

26% were interested in “keeping up with political 26% were interested in “keeping up with political affairs.”affairs.”

28% wanted to be “a community leader.” 28% wanted to be “a community leader.” In contrast, 73% of college freshmen said they In contrast, 73% of college freshmen said they

wanted to be well-off financially. wanted to be well-off financially.

In 2000, an annual survey of freshmen in the colleges In 2000, an annual survey of freshmen in the colleges and universities across the country found that: and universities across the country found that:

I Cannot Be ChartedI Cannot Be ChartedI am the youth vote. And I'm tired of being preached at, studied and wooed. I I am the youth vote. And I'm tired of being preached at, studied and wooed. I want to be educated, listened to and, most of all, respected.want to be educated, listened to and, most of all, respected.

Everyone has a theory as to why I don't vote, but no one really asks me. So I'll Everyone has a theory as to why I don't vote, but no one really asks me. So I'll explain.explain.

I am neither lazy nor apathetic. I'm confused and frustrated. I am told to care I am neither lazy nor apathetic. I'm confused and frustrated. I am told to care about issues like Social Security and health care, when chances are high that I about issues like Social Security and health care, when chances are high that I won't even find a job after I graduate from college. I juggle low-wage, part-time won't even find a job after I graduate from college. I juggle low-wage, part-time jobs or a full-time class schedule, and I'm not necessarily available on Nov. 2.jobs or a full-time class schedule, and I'm not necessarily available on Nov. 2.

I cannot be accurately represented by percentages and statistics. I cannot be I cannot be accurately represented by percentages and statistics. I cannot be graphed and charted. I am not a Democrat, Republican or other. I'm a mixed graphed and charted. I am not a Democrat, Republican or other. I'm a mixed bag of experiences and influences, and no one can predict how I will vote when I bag of experiences and influences, and no one can predict how I will vote when I do vote.do vote.

I am not ignorant. I know what's going in the world—even if I hear it mostly from I am not ignorant. I know what's going in the world—even if I hear it mostly from "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart." And yes, at times I do care more about the "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart." And yes, at times I do care more about the latest episode of "The Sopranos" than the headline news. That's because I live latest episode of "The Sopranos" than the headline news. That's because I live the headline news. I know about poverty and crime. I live it every day.the headline news. I know about poverty and crime. I live it every day.

I am not disengaged, I'm worn out. Sometimes I feel that no matter how I vote, I am not disengaged, I'm worn out. Sometimes I feel that no matter how I vote, there will still be war, crime and poverty. And I have other things on my mind. I there will still be war, crime and poverty. And I have other things on my mind. I am worried about skin cancer, drunken drivers, eating disorders, what I'm going am worried about skin cancer, drunken drivers, eating disorders, what I'm going to be when I grow up, how I'm going to get there and what I'm going to do to be when I grow up, how I'm going to get there and what I'm going to do Friday night.Friday night.

I Cannot Be ChartedI Cannot Be ChartedI don't know the difference between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry I don't know the difference between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry because they don't take time out from kissing babies and the behinds of corporate because they don't take time out from kissing babies and the behinds of corporate executives to tell me. Anyway, sex scandals, wars based on false pretenses and executives to tell me. Anyway, sex scandals, wars based on false pretenses and broken promises have left me cynical about all politicians.broken promises have left me cynical about all politicians.

Howard Dean tried to change my mind about the political process. He made me a Howard Dean tried to change my mind about the political process. He made me a part of his campaign, rather than a target. He recognized the power I hold, rather part of his campaign, rather than a target. He recognized the power I hold, rather than ignoring my potential.than ignoring my potential.

I am active on campuses across the country, but this part of me is recognized only I am active on campuses across the country, but this part of me is recognized only as a minority--a few bright stars in an otherwise dark night.as a minority--a few bright stars in an otherwise dark night.

I am not a dark knight. I will not ride in on my horse come November and steal the I am not a dark knight. I will not ride in on my horse come November and steal the election for one candidate or another. I don't know if I will even really vote at all. election for one candidate or another. I don't know if I will even really vote at all. But I do know that I am 48 million strong. And if someone would just reach out to But I do know that I am 48 million strong. And if someone would just reach out to me--not just during election years, but every day--I would show them me--not just during election years, but every day--I would show them overwhelming support at the polls.overwhelming support at the polls.

I am the youth vote.I am the youth vote.

by TRACI E. CARPENTERby TRACI E. CARPENTERNewsweek, Newsweek, July 12, 2004July 12, 2004

Voter Turnout by AgeVoter Turnout by Age

0

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40

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100

Chronological age

Vot

er tu

rnou

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Delayed maturation?Today, the average age of first-time brides is 25, compared with an average age of 21 in 1964. For first-time grooms, the average age is 27.5, compared with an average age of 24 in 1964.

The American Voter (1960)The American Voter (1960) Partisan identification Partisan identification

is learned through pre-is learned through pre-adult socializationadult socialization

It is an enduring It is an enduring psychological psychological attachment, a point of attachment, a point of self-referenceself-reference

This view has been This view has been under attack ever under attack ever since…since…

Key QuestionsKey Questions How changeable is a voter’s partisan How changeable is a voter’s partisan

identification?identification? Do feelings of partisanship respond to Do feelings of partisanship respond to

current political events (e.g., a current political events (e.g., a “running tally”)?“running tally”)?

How loyal are self-described partisans?How loyal are self-described partisans? Has there been a rise in the number of Has there been a rise in the number of

Independents?Independents?

Partisan IdentificationPartisan Identification““Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?”what?”““Would you call yourself a strong Would you call yourself a strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN] or a not very strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN] or a not very strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN]?” [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN]?” [IF INDEPENDENT, NO PREFERENCE, or OTHER] “Do [IF INDEPENDENT, NO PREFERENCE, or OTHER] “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?”or to the Democratic Party?”

Strong Strong DemocratDemocrat

Weak Weak DemocratDemocrat

Lean Lean DemocratDemocrat

Lean Lean RepublicanRepublican

Weak Weak RepublicanRepublican

Strong Strong RepublicanRepublican

IndependeIndependentnt

11 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7

Do all Independents belong in the middle of the political spectrum?

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Perc

ent r

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ndin

g

Democrat Republican Independent Apolitical

Source: National Election Studies, various years.

Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-2004Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-2004Excluding “Leaners”Excluding “Leaners”


Democratic Expected Vote in Presidential Democratic Expected Vote in Presidential Elections, 1952-2004Elections, 1952-2004

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2004

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45

50

55

60

65

Perc

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Expected vote Actual vote

Trends in Party Affiliation, Trends in Party Affiliation, 2000-20072000-2007

2004

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2006

2007

0

20

40

60

80

100Percent responding "Republican"

2004

2005

2006

2007

20

25

30

35

40Percent responding "Republican"

ConsequencesConsequences Party identification encourages an active Party identification encourages an active

interest in politics.interest in politics. Once formed, party identification acts as Once formed, party identification acts as

a short-cut or cue.a short-cut or cue. It also serves as a filter or perceptual It also serves as a filter or perceptual

screen, shaping other more specific screen, shaping other more specific attitudes, including evaluations of office attitudes, including evaluations of office holders.holders.

Changes in Party Identification, Pre- to Post-Election

Final Pre-Election Poll First Post-Election Poll

Year Dem RepDem - Rep

Gap Dem RepDem - Rep

Gap

% % % % 2006 34 31 +3 35 24 +112004 37 34 +3 35 38 -32002 34 34 0 25 31 -62000 35 29 +6 36 28 +81998 35 29 +6 34 29 +51996 40 30 +10 37 28 +91994 34 31 +3 28 36 -81992 36 30 +6 35 25 +10

Reagan DemocratsReagan DemocratsThe term “Reagan Democrats” refers to a group of voters (composed largely of white, ethnic, blue collar, Northerners) who continued to identify with the Democratic Party while voting for Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

Key QuestionsKey Questions How changeable is a voter’s partisan How changeable is a voter’s partisan

identification?identification? Do feelings of partisanship respond to Do feelings of partisanship respond to

current political events (e.g., a current political events (e.g., a “running tally”)?“running tally”)?

How loyal are self-described partisans?How loyal are self-described partisans? Has there been a rise in the number of Has there been a rise in the number of

Independents?Independents?

A Rise in Independents?A Rise in Independents? Not all respondents classified as Not all respondents classified as

“Independents” label themselves “Independents” label themselves that way.that way.

Most independents are, in fact, Most independents are, in fact, “hidden” partisans. “hidden” partisans.

““Nothing in that respect. I don’t consider myself anything politically.”Nothing in that respect. I don’t consider myself anything politically.” ““I ain’t none of them.”I ain’t none of them.” ““None.”None.” ““Not anything.”Not anything.” [Laughs] “You should call me nothing.”[Laughs] “You should call me nothing.” ““No preference.”No preference.” ““I don’t think of myself as anything.”I don’t think of myself as anything.” ““It depends.”It depends.” ““I’m an American.”I’m an American.” “ “May the best man win. It’s the best candidate.”May the best man win. It’s the best candidate.” ““I’m someone who believes in what I believe is a good man who will I’m someone who believes in what I believe is a good man who will

do the most for the country.”do the most for the country.” I’m not a Republican, not a Democrat, not an Independent, and not a I’m not a Republican, not a Democrat, not an Independent, and not a

Communist.”Communist.” I’m nothing. I don’t holler about it.”I’m nothing. I don’t holler about it.” [Interviewer asks if the respondent would call himself an [Interviewer asks if the respondent would call himself an

Independent.] “You don’t mean one of those minority groups?”Independent.] “You don’t mean one of those minority groups?” ““Oh hell, I don’t know.”Oh hell, I don’t know.”

Each of these Each of these respondents respondents

was ultimately was ultimately classified as classified as

an an “Independent.“Independent.

””

19681968 19721972 19761976 19801980 19841984 19881988 19921992 19961996

Strong DemocratsStrong Democrats 85%85% 73%73% 91%91% 86%86% 87%87% 93%93% 93%93% 96%96%

Weak DemocratsWeak Democrats 5858 4848 7474 6060 6767 7070 6969 8282

Independents, Independents, closer to Democratscloser to Democrats 5252 6060 7272 4545 7979 8888 7171 7676

IndependentsIndependents ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

Independents, Independents, closer to closer to RepublicansRepublicans

8282 8686 8383 7676 9292 8484 6262 6868

Weak RepublicansWeak Republicans 8282 9090 7777 8686 9393 8383 6060 7070

Strong RepublicansStrong Republicans 9696 9797 9696 9292 9696 9898 8787 9494

Party Identifiers Voting for Party Identifiers Voting for Their Party’s Presidential Their Party’s Presidential

CandidateCandidate

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Perc

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Democrat Republican Independent Apolitical


Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-20042004

Including “Leaners”Including “Leaners”

Trends in Partisan Trends in Partisan Identification, 1952-2004Identification, 1952-2004

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30Percent responding

Strong DemocratWeak DemocratIndependent, leans Democrat

IndependentIndependent, leans RepublicanWeak Republican

Strong RepublicanApolitical

The Two AmericasThe Two AmericasWhat divides Americans is authenticity, not something hard and ugly like economics. While liberals commit endless acts of hubris, sucking down lattes, driving ostentatious European cars, and trying to reform the world, the humble people of the red states go about their unpretentious business, eating down-home foods, vacationing in the Ozarks, whistling while they work, feeling comfortable about who they are, and knowing they are secure under the watch of George W. Bush, a man they love as one of their own.

— Thomas Frank

““A Victory for People Like A Victory for People Like Us”Us”

The Two AmericasThe Two AmericasWhy is it so puzzling that people vote their convictions rather than their pocketbooks?

— Jon A. Shields

Newspaper Headlines following Newspaper Headlines following the 2004 Presidential Electionthe 2004 Presidential Election

FAITH, VALUES FUELED WINFAITH, VALUES FUELED WIN ( (The Chicago The Chicago TribuneTribune))

VALUES VOTERS’ KEY TO BUSH RE-VALUES VOTERS’ KEY TO BUSH RE-ELECTIONELECTION ( (Fort Worth Star TelegramFort Worth Star Telegram))

MORAL VALUES CITED AS A DEFINING MORAL VALUES CITED AS A DEFINING ISSUE OF THE ELECTIONISSUE OF THE ELECTION ( (The New York The New York TimesTimes))

‘‘MORAL VALUES’ WERE A PRIORITY FOR MORAL VALUES’ WERE A PRIORITY FOR VOTERSVOTERS ( (Minneapolis Star TribuneMinneapolis Star Tribune))

MORAL VALUES DREW VOTERS TO BUSHMORAL VALUES DREW VOTERS TO BUSH ((Buffalo NewsBuffalo News))

All of these analyses were based on the same All of these analyses were based on the same questionquestion from the same exit poll…from the same exit poll…

2004 Exit Poll Results2004 Exit Poll Results

Since “moral values” outranked all other Since “moral values” outranked all other issues in the 2004 exit poll, some argue issues in the 2004 exit poll, some argue that Bush won re-election because of a that Bush won re-election because of a legion of religious voters. Others call it a legion of religious voters. Others call it a myth.myth.

Religion and Voting Behavior, Religion and Voting Behavior, 20042004

What are “Moral Values”?What are “Moral Values”? Being against gay Being against gay

marriage?marriage? Opposing stem cell Opposing stem cell

research?research? Opposing abortion?Opposing abortion? Helping the poor?Helping the poor? Withdrawing troops from Withdrawing troops from

Iraq?Iraq? Character attributes of the Character attributes of the

candidates?candidates?Some argue that the “moral values” controversy rests on a single “dodgy” exit poll question…

The Fault Lines of Religious The Fault Lines of Religious BeliefBelief

Evangelicals may be Evangelicals may be theologicallytheologically conservative, but conservative, but they have not always been they have not always been politicallypolitically conservative. conservative.

Evangelical voters are becoming increasingly concerned with a variety of issues: the Iraq War, the environment, torture, poverty, etc.—things that put them at odds with the president’s agenda.Indeed, some argue that it is no longer accurate to identify “evangelical” with “religious right.”

Which issues matter most?Which issues matter most?

Necessary Conditions Necessary Conditions for Issue Votingfor Issue Voting

Awareness of issueAwareness of issue Intensity of feelingIntensity of feeling Perception of party differencesPerception of party differences Willingness to override partisan Willingness to override partisan

identificationidentification

Which issues are most likely to meet these Which issues are most likely to meet these conditions?conditions?

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Growth rate of real per capita GNP in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the election year

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Incumbent share of the two-party vote

1932

1936

1980

1920

1908

1992

Presidential Voting Presidential Voting and Economic Growthand Economic Growth

Retrospective voting on the

economy provides an information short-cut. 2008

Pocketbook votingPocketbook voting

vs. vs.

Sociotropic votingSociotropic voting

Perceived Economic Perceived Economic Conditions, 1980-2008Conditions, 1980-2008

Source: National Election Study, various years.

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20080

20

40

60

80

100Percent responding "gotten worse"

Condition of nation's economy Respondent's financial situation

Perceptions of the economy mattered in 1992, more than reality.

Candidate Candidate EvaluationsEvaluations

““Maybe a nation that consumes as much booze and Maybe a nation that consumes as much booze and dope as we do and has our kind of divorce statistics dope as we do and has our kind of divorce statistics should pipe down about ‘character issues.’ Either that should pipe down about ‘character issues.’ Either that or just go ahead and determine the presidency with or just go ahead and determine the presidency with three-legged races and pie-eating contests. It would three-legged races and pie-eating contests. It would make better TV.”make better TV.”

— — P. J. O'RourkeP. J. O'Rourke

Candidate EvaluationsCandidate Evaluations

In the In the traitstraits they they convey (e.g., honesty, convey (e.g., honesty, trustworthiness, trustworthiness, intelligence);intelligence);

In the In the feelingsfeelings they they evoke (e.g., anger, evoke (e.g., anger, hope, pride, fear);hope, pride, fear);

There is at least one enduring truth in the study of There is at least one enduring truth in the study of voting behavior—citizens vote in overwhelming voting behavior—citizens vote in overwhelming numbers for the presidential candidate they numbers for the presidential candidate they likelike the the most. Candidates are important in at least two waysmost. Candidates are important in at least two ways——

Presidential DebatesPresidential Debates 1960: Kennedy/Nixon debate1960: Kennedy/Nixon debate 1988: Kitty Dukakis question1988: Kitty Dukakis question 1992: Clinton/Bush on the 1992: Clinton/Bush on the

economyeconomy 2000: Gore’s personality2000: Gore’s personality 2004: Kerry as a “flip-flopper,” 2004: Kerry as a “flip-flopper,”

Bush’s body languageBush’s body language

1960 Kennedy-Nixon 1960 Kennedy-Nixon DebateDebate

1980: Putting It All 1980: Putting It All TogetherTogether

HYPOTHESIS #1HYPOTHESIS #1 Reagan won because of his Reagan won because of his policy positionspolicy positions

HYPOTHESIS #2HYPOTHESIS #2 Carter lost because of Carter lost because of widespread dissatisfaction with widespread dissatisfaction with his performance in officehis performance in office

Issue Proximities on Defense Spending, 1980Issue Proximities on Defense Spending, 1980

1-2 3 4 5 6-70

10

20

30

40

50

Respondent

Carter

Reagan

Reduce spending

Increase spending

The average voter in 1980 was closer to

Reagan’s position on defense spending, than

Carter’s.

Comparative Assessment of Candidate Comparative Assessment of Candidate Attributes, 1980Attributes, 1980

-50

-25

0

25

50

Solve economic problems

Provide strong

leadership

Maintain good

foreign relations

Strong Informed Honest

Carter stronger

Reagan stronger

NOTE: Each entry is the proportion of those giving Carter a favorable rating minus the proportion giving Reagan a favorable rating.

Reagan was a stronger candidate than Carter.


HYPOTHESIS #1:HYPOTHESIS #1: The Perot factorThe Perot factor

HYPOTHESIS #2:HYPOTHESIS #2: Bush lost because of lingering Bush lost because of lingering anxieties over the state of the anxieties over the state of the economyeconomy

HYPOTHESIS #3:HYPOTHESIS #3: Bush lost because of his Bush lost because of his handling of the Persian Gulf Warhandling of the Persian Gulf War

HYPOTHESIS #4:HYPOTHESIS #4: Clinton won because he Clinton won because he marketed himself as a new kind marketed himself as a new kind of Democratof Democrat

HYPOTHESIS #5:HYPOTHESIS #5: Clinton won because he Clinton won because he connected well with voters, connected well with voters, while Bush was unappealingwhile Bush was unappealing


Because of peace and prosperity, most econometric Because of peace and prosperity, most econometric models of the race predicted a Gore win at models of the race predicted a Gore win at somewhere between 53% to 60%. His actual total somewhere between 53% to 60%. His actual total was closer to 49%. The conditions Gore faced were was closer to 49%. The conditions Gore faced were favorable to the incumbent president’s party, and favorable to the incumbent president’s party, and as its standard bearer he should have received as its standard bearer he should have received credit for it, but he did not. He fell well short of credit for it, but he did not. He fell well short of expectations. Why?expectations. Why?


HYPOTHESIS #1:HYPOTHESIS #1: Blame Nader!Blame Nader!

HYPOTHESIS #2:HYPOTHESIS #2: Gore lost because he distanced Gore lost because he distanced himself from Clinton as a person, himself from Clinton as a person, which cost him a platform based which cost him a platform based on peace and prosperityon peace and prosperity

HYPOTHESIS #3:HYPOTHESIS #3: Gore’s notoriously aloof Gore’s notoriously aloof personality turned voters offpersonality turned voters off

HYPOTHESIS #4:HYPOTHESIS #4: Gore lost because he ran too far Gore lost because he ran too far to the leftto the left

HYPOTHESIS #5:HYPOTHESIS #5: Gore lost because of “Clinton Gore lost because of “Clinton fatigue”fatigue”

AngryAngry 26%26% 28%28%AfraidAfraid 2121 1818HopefulHopeful 4343 4646ProudProud 3030 3333

KnowledgeablKnowledgeablee

71%71% 83%83%

MoralMoral 7373 7474Strong leaderStrong leader 6666 5858

Feel

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aits20002000

NES Thermometer ScalesNES Thermometer ScalesAverage feeling thermometer rating towards the candidates in 2000:Al Gore: 57°George W. Bush: 56°


HYPOTHESIS #1:HYPOTHESIS #1: Bush won because of the continued Bush won because of the continued threat of terrorism—largely in spite of threat of terrorism—largely in spite of Iraq, not because of itIraq, not because of it

HYPOTHESIS #2:HYPOTHESIS #2: Bush won because of a much smaller Bush won because of a much smaller “gender gap” (e.g., security Moms)“gender gap” (e.g., security Moms)

HYPOTHESIS #3:HYPOTHESIS #3: Bush won because of “moral values,” Bush won because of “moral values,” which drove high turnout among which drove high turnout among Christian evangelicals (e.g., gay Christian evangelicals (e.g., gay marriage)marriage)

HYPOTHESIS #4:HYPOTHESIS #4: Kerry lost because the “youth vote” Kerry lost because the “youth vote” failed to materializefailed to materialize

HYPOTHESIS #5:HYPOTHESIS #5: Kerry lost because he never connected Kerry lost because he never connected with voters, and because he was seen as with voters, and because he was seen as weak, and as a dishonest flip-flopperweak, and as a dishonest flip-flopper

AngryAngry 56%56% 31%31%AfraidAfraid 4343 2323HopefulHopeful 5555 4747ProudProud 6161 3434

KnowledgeablKnowledgeablee

60%60% 79%79%

MoralMoral 6969 6767Strong leaderStrong leader 6464 5353

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aits20042004

Strongly Strongly approveapprove

54%54% 3%3%

ApproveApprove 2828 55DisapproveDisapprove 88 88Strongly Strongly disapprovedisapprove

1010 8585

20042004Pr

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2004 Exit Poll Results2004 Exit Poll Results

Documents

Voting Behavior