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Listof
webinars
INFORMEDINFORMATION FOR NUTRITION FOOD SECURITY AND
RESILIENCE FOR DECISION MAKING
4
#ks4resilience
#UNFAO
Resilience IndexMeasurement and Analysis II
RIMA-II: what’s new?
Marco d’ErricoResilience Analysis and Policies team
Agricultural Development Economics Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations [email protected]
Outli
ne
What you can get from RIMA
Resilience and RIMA-II
RIMA-II: the descriptive measure
RIMA-II: the causal measure
Stepping up policy influence
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What you can get from RIMA
Wha
t que
stio
ns a
nswe
r?
Who is most in need?
Where should investment focus in terms of geographical location?
Which dimensions of resilience need to be supported?
To what extent have interventions increased target populations’ resilience? Was our money well-spent?
What are the main determinants of food security recover?
Wha
t you
can
get
from
RIM
A
Was our money well-spent?
Wha
t you
can
get
from
RIM
A
Was our money well-spent?
IFA
APS
AC
A
SSN
S
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
Baseline Evaluation
Urban /Peri Urban
IFA
APS
AC
A
SSN
S
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
Baseline Evaluation
Herders
IFA
APS
AC
A
SSN
S
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
Baseline Evaluation
Farmers
Before and After Prj Implementation - WBGS
Wha
t you
can
get
from
RIM
A
Resilience maps
Wha
t you
can
get
from
RIM
A
An infographic visually explains the process step by step
and the results of the analysis.
Evidence-based policy choice
A brief addressed to government policy-makers summarizes the results of the resilience analysis and formulates policy recommendations.
RIM
A an
alys
is in
the
world
RIMA – Finalized AnalysisSenegal, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, West Bank and Gaza Strip, Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania and Malawi RIMA – Ongoing AnalysisSenegal, Mauritania, Chad, Ethiopia, Lesotho, West Bank and Gaza Strip
Mauritania
Chad
Ethiopia
Uganda
Tanzania
Malawi
Lesotho
Senegal
MaliNiger
Burkina Faso
Sudan
South Sudan
Kenya
Somali
a
Nigeria
West Bank & Gaza Strip
Resilience and RIMA-II
Photo: FAO
Resil
ienc
e an
d RI
MA-
II
• a context-specific concept with respect to: - specific population of interest- specific outcome of interest- specific shocks
• Linked to an outcome- Resilience is on the right hand of the equation- The Y is in the LHS (food security; consumption)
• Time-dependentImpact on resilience can be measured as change over time; need baseline/end-line data. It is all about time.
How can resilience be measured? quantitative vs qualitative big surveys vs lighter surveys ad hoc vs pre-existing data
Challenges in Resilience Measurement
Resil
ienc
e an
d RI
MA-
II
RIMA (Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis) is an innovative quantitative approach that estimates resilience to food insecurity andgenerates the evidence for more effectively assisting vulnerable populations.
RIMA allows explaining why and how some households cope with shocks and stressor better than others do and provides rigorous framework for humanitarian and long-term development initiatives to build food secure and resilient livelihoods.
Resil
ienc
e an
d RI
MA-
II
RIMA suits several definitions of resilience:
• The ability to prevent disasters and crises as well as to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from them in a timely, efficient and sustainable manner (FAO, 2013)
• The capacity of a household to bounce back to a previous level of well-being (for instance food security) after a shock (Alinovi, Mane & Romano, 2009)
• The capacity that ensures adverse stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development consequences (Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group, 2014)
RIMA is focused on households
Resil
ienc
e an
d RI
MA-
II
• It is the unit within which the most important decisions to manage uncertain events are made
• It is the unit that benefits the positive effects of policies and suffers for negative effects of shocks
Conc
eptu
al fr
amew
ork
Resil
ienc
e an
d RI
MA-
IIRIMA-II provides a comprehensive estimation of resilience and clear policy indications.
It estimates household resilience to food insecurity with a comprehensive pack which includes descriptive and causal measure as well as long and short term measurement approaches
Shocks are considered exogenous and included into a regression model for estimating their impact on food security and on resilience
Food security variables are considered exogenous indicators of resilience capacity
Shoc
ks
RIMA-II takes into account several types of shocks that can affect households.
Shocks affecting one household such as livestock death, job loss and illness of a household member. These shocks are all directly reported by households in surveys (idiosyncratic shocks)Shocks affecting an entire community (covariate shocks) which in turn are divided into:
Climate shocks, such as droughts, floods, rainfalls and other natural hazards, registered through GIS;
Conflict-related shocks, such as war, murders and social disorders
Data
set
Quantitative data Existing data (LSMS, MICS, other HH budget survey)
• LSMS-ISA (Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Uganda, Tanzania)
• Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2005
Ad hoc data (LSMS-type, primary data collection through surveys) • Baseline/final survey for impact
evaluation (South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia)
• Sampling; design; training; data collection, entry, cleaning & analysis
Validated and integrated with qualitative data• Focus group, rapid
assessment, other tools
Qualitative data
Data
set
Mixed methods approach
RIMA-II: the descriptive measure
Photo: FAO
Descriptive measure
It provides information on household resilience capacity.
RIMA-II employs latent variable models to estimate the Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) and the Resilience Structure Matrix (RSM).
It is a valuable policy analysis tool to inform funding and policy decisions, as it allow to target and rank households from most to less resilient.
Desc
riptiv
e m
easu
re
Access to basic services
(ABS)
Assets (AST)
Adaptive Capacity
(AC)
Social Safety Nets
(SSN)
Household resilience
Resilience pillars
Desc
riptiv
e m
easu
re
Resilience pillars Definition
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive Capacity is the ability of a household to adapt to a new situation and develop new strategies of livelihood
Social Safety Nets
The Social Safety Nets pillar measures the ability of households to access timely and reliable assistance provided by international agencies, charities, and NGOs, as well as help from relatives and friends.
Assets
Assets comprise both productive and non-productive assets. Examples of indicators include land, livestock and durables. Other tangible assets such as house, vehicle, and household amenities reflect living standards and wealth of a household.
Access to Basic Services
Access to Basic Services shows the ability of a household to meet basic needs, and access and effective use of basic services; e.g., access to schools, health facilities; infrastructures and markets.
Desc
riptiv
e m
easu
re
1) Factor analysis: from observed variables to pillars
2) Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes: from pillars to RCI
Two-step procedure for RCI estimation:
RIMA-II: the causal measure
Photo: European Commission DG ECHO / Flircr
Causal measure
RIMA-II estimates the main determinants of food recovery and it moves the resilience analysis in the long term perspective.
The causal measure can be adopted as a predictor tool for interventions that build and strengthen resilience to food insecurity.
It provides new depth and breadth to resilience analysis and permits decision makers and other stakeholders to better understand the dynamics of positive trends in resilience and thus develop strategies that will yield positive results.
Caus
al m
easu
reFood security trajectory
RIM
A-II
Estimation of RCI + RSM + food security recovery determinants:
Stepping up policy influence
Photo: FAO
Step
ping
up
polic
y in
fluen
ce
• Resilience markerpilot in West Bank and Gaza Strip
• Integration/harmonization with other tools
e.g. USAID-TANGO, UNICEF, WFP, IFAD
• Global resilience indexe.g. future development for global
comparison
• C-RIMApilot in Somalia
• Broadening RIMA analytical capacitiese.g. gender (FAO); shocks (IFPRI; Cornell and TUFTS University)
Step
ping
up
polic
y in
fluen
ce
• Strict collaboration with: 1) Regional initiatives (CILSS/IGAD)2) National Bureau of Statistics and other
significative ministries3) FAO country regional and sub-regional
offices4) Universities for enhancing local capacity
building • Re-thinking resilience analyses
and communications tools under a policy-oriented perspective
THANK YOU! Contact me…
… and sign up to our newsletter!
[email protected] www.fao.org/resilience/background/tools/rima
37
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