Michael P. TottenChief Advisor, Climate, Freshwater

Center for Environmental Leadership in BusinessConservation International

Presentation at the 21st Annual E Source ForumSeptember 25, 2008

A Climate Friendly Industrial Revolution

A Portfolio Sen$ible21st Century

Market Transformation

www.conservation.org/

Soon to migrate to a web-based

social collaboration

value net

Dedicated toShimon Awerbuch (1946-2007)

Utility Portfolio Theorist Par Excellent

Portfolio analysis is widely used by financial investors to create robust portfolios that produce efficient outcomes under various economic conditions.

In essence, an efficient portfolio takes no unnecessary risk relative to its expected return.

Put another way, efficient portfolios are defined by the following properties:they maximize the expected return for any given level of risk, while minimizing risk for every given level of expected return.

21st century highly dynamic conditions and complex variables call for Scenario planning and Portfolio managing.

G. Peterson et al., “Scenario Planning, a tool for conservation in an uncertain world,” Conservation Biology, V. 17:2, April 2003.

Highly Skewed Economic Growth

10-fold growth in world GDP 1950-20002.6-fold growth in world population 1950-2000

2%/yr or 7x

~$290 trillion

3%/yr or 19x

~$860 trillion

More absolute poverty than any time in human history

Large percentages physically impaired & mentally stunted for lifeAnd vast percentage chronically ill and premature mortality

6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

Global Military spending increased 40% since 2000 - $1.2 trillion in 2007

Vulnerability of National Economic and Energy Security

NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLEFirst documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours

1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

Your parents lifespanYour lifespan

Your children’s lifespan

Your grandchildren’s lifespan

Today

1100

Past 400,000 years

Present atmospheric CO2concentration not exceeded past 400,000 years, and likely not during past 20 million years.

met

han e

carbon dioxide

Humanity’s Climate Footprint

Global temperature rising 15 to 60 times faster than historical natural rate.

Within grandchild’s lifespan

Oceans more acidic than past 800,000 years.

Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint

2006

2050

now 29GtCO2

reduce to15 GtCO2

2100reduce to<5 GtCO2

Failure of Action Will Put Hundreds of Millions at Risk

(Parry et al., 2001)

Lack Financial & Technical Infrastructure for Adaptation or MitigationPose Increased National Security Risks & Conflicts from “Climate Refugees”

Retired Gen. Anthony Zinni was among 11 former generals and admirals on the military advisory board that examined the potential threats of climate change to national security.

April 2007

http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/

“You have very real changes in natural systems that are most likely to happen in regions of the world that are already fertile ground for extremism.” Admiral T.J. Lopez

“It’s not hard to make the connection between climate change and instability…We will pay for this one way or another. We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and we’ll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives. There will be a human toll” General Anthony Zinni

“the military and intelligence communities should be specifically tasked to aggressively find ways to make their data, talent, and systems capabilities available to American efforts in understanding climate change signals..”

Vice Admiral Paul Gaffney

U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses Growing Faster than Premiums, Population, GDP

Source: Mills, Roth and Lecomte, 2005

$2.5 trillionalmost a quarter of

the US economy is at risk from the

weatherlarge forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.

Top 10 Most Costly Hurricanes in US History, (Insured Losses, $2005)

$3.5 $3.8 $4.8 $5.0 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7$10.3

$21.6

$40.6

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

Georges(1998)

Jeanne(2004)

Frances(2004)

Rita (2005)

Hugo(1989)

Ivan (2004)

Charley(2004)

Wilma(2005)

Andrew(1992)

Katrina(2005)

$ B

illio

ns

Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.

Seven of the 10 most expensive hurricanes in US history

occurred in the 14 months from Aug. 2004 – Oct. 2005:

Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, Ivan, Frances & Jeanne

Top 11 Insured PropertyLosses in US ($2005)

$3.8 $4.8 $5.0 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7$10.3

$16.5$20.7 $21.6

$40.6

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45

Hurrica

ne Jea

nne (20

04)

Hurrica

ne Fra

nces (2

004)

Hurrica

ne Rita

(200

5)

Hurrica

ne Hug

o (19

89)

Hurrica

ne Iva

n (200

4)

Hurrica

ne Char

ley (2

004)

Hurrica

ne Wilm

a (20

05)

Northrid

ge E

arthq

uake (

1994

)

Sept. 1

1 Terr

or A

ttack

(200

1)

Hurrica

ne Andr

ew (1

992)

Hurrica

ne Katr

ina (20

05)

$ B

illio

ns

Note: 9/11 loss figure is for property claims only. Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.

Eight of the 11 most expensive disasters is US

history occurred since 2001

Yet, Bias runs deep: Deny, Delay & Do Nothing

Rush Limbaugh CEO Lee RaymondEvangelical James Dobson

Senator James Inhofe (R-OK)

Including Much of Congress

National Journal 02-03-07

75% of Americans Get Climate Change

People care a lot about unlikely “worst cases”Airport security is all about worst case possibilities

Insurance is not based on average outcomesThe average (US) house has a fire every 250 years

(0.4% probability per year of a residential fire)

But most people have fire insurance

Probability of death next year is less than 1% until age 61;

(under 0.2% until 40, US data)

But most young parents have life insurance

Probability of enough warming to guarantee loss of Greenland ice sheet is much greater than 1%

Fiscally prudent to buy insurance for the planet

Fiscally Prudent Insurance Need

Frank Ackerman, The economics of climate policy: Cost-benefit analysis or global insurance policy? European Parliament, 03-26-08, www.sei-us.org/more-news.html

Uncertainty and catastrophic risk are decisiveClimate policy is insurance against low-probability (but not

impossible) catastrophic eventsBy comparison, the “most likely” outcome is irrelevant. Certainty

will not be achieved until it is too lateClimate catastrophes are now at least as likely as risks (fire, death) we buy insurance against

Exact probabilities are unknown, but become more likely as the climate changes

Cost-benefit analysis offers to guard against the risk of spending “too much” on “favored options”

This is a very different (less urgent) problem

A New Climate Economics

The economics of climate policy: Cost-benefit analysis or global insurance policy? Frank Ackerman, Tufts University and Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center, presentation to the European Parliament, Brussels, March 26, 2008, http://www.sei-us.org/more-news.html

The real economic question: what is the least-cost way to ensure that we prevent global catastrophe?

“The best way to predict your future is to create it!”Abraham Lincoln

1. Economically affordable2. Safe3. Clean4. Risk is low and manageable5. Resilient and flexible6. Ecologically sustainable7. Environmentally benign8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures10.Endogenous learning capacity11.Robust experience curve for reducing

negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities

12.Uninteresting target for malicious disruption

Desirable attributes of a Portfolio Energy system

DOZEN CRITERIA

including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?through the entire life cycle?through the entire lifespan?

from financial and price volatility?to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?

no adverse impacts on biodiversity?maintains air, water, soil quality?

adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?low recovery cost and lost time?

intrinsic new productivity opportunities?

scalable innovation possibilities?

off the radar of terrorists, military planners?

A Portfolio Sensible Energy Criteria Scoring

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowastepower

Geo-thermal

Nat gas

Bio-fuels

Oil imports

Coal CCS

nuclearTar sand

Oil shale

Coal to liquids

Coal no

CCS

Promote

CHP + biowastes

Economically AffordableSafeCleanSecureResilient & flexibleEcologically sustainableEnvironmentally benignFails gracefully, not catastrophRebounds easily from failuresEndogenous learning capacityRobust experience curvesUninteresting military target

Score

Efficiency servicesImmense pool

Highly cost-effectiveExtraordinarily low risk

A myriad of benefits

No. 1, 2,3 Actions: Efficiency, Efficiency, and more EfficiencyDecoupling, Financial Alignment, Standards, Dynamic Pricing

The Art of Efficiency

Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year.

Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year.

Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.

Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply

$700 billion per year in energy bill savings

McKinsey’s recent assessment concluded energy efficiency improvements with a 10% or higher ROI could provide half of all new energy demand through 2030.

And IEA’s “Aggressive Innovation” scenario concluded efficiency gains could provide 75% of projected new energy service demand through 2030.

agriculture5%

bldgs EE15%

transport EE15%

industry EE15%

solar15%

wind15%

biomass10%

geothermal1%

oil1%

gas2%

coal1%

forests5%

Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions

Assumes:

1) Global economic growth 2-3% per year all century long;

2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains;

3) Combined carbon cap & carbon tax

oil gas coal

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.

CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)

Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this century.

SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save $50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.

OR, Envision eliminating the need for 6,700 Chernobyl reactors.

OR, Envision eliminating the need for 13,800 Glen Canyon dams.

OR, Envision eliminating the need for 17 million LNG tanker shipments.

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

Public library – North Carolina

Heinz Foundation Green Building, PA

Oberlin College Ecology Center,

Ohio

Green Buildings – ecologically sustainable, economically superior, higher occupant satisfaction

The Costs and Financial Benefits

of Green Buildings, A Report to California’s Sustainable

Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by

Greg Kats et al.

$50 to $70 per ft2 net present

value

Biggest Efficiency Option of Them All:Supplier Chain Factories & Products

Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per year.

Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.

2 trillion kWh per year savings –equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide.

$240 billion savings per decade.

$200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.

Efficiency OutcomesDemand Facts

Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy Efficiency of Electric Motor Systems)

SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide

Less Large Power Plants & MinesMore Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”

Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

President Hu Jintao repeatedly calls for China to build a great “resource-conserving, water-conscious, and innovating society.”

Premier Wen Jiabao continually emphasizes China's development depends on scientific knowledge, technological progress and innovation, with a top priority on energy, water and resource conservation and environmental protection.

The 11th 5 Year Plan is unprecedented in giving highest priority to pursuing the 4E’s over the traditional fixation on resource expansion.

Premier Wen Jiabao

SEIZING THE 4 E’S

President Hu Jintao

EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY, WATER, RESOURCES AND LAND USE

Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per yearAccrues $67.5 million annual savingsSaves 45 billion gallons watersAvoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge

Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals

Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2

Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx

Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2

Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coalEliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year

Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)

(1.8 billion kWh per year)

Avoided Emissions & Savings per China EPP

[1] Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, Twww.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT

And EPPs generates several times more jobs per $ of investment

$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value

[source: SafeClimate.net]

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year

6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account

$

Wal-Mart Surpasses Goal To sell 100 million compact fluorescent light bulbs Three Months Early

CEO Lee Scott

“We are looking at innovative ways to reduce our GHG emissions.

This used to be controversial, but the science is in and it is overwhelming.

“We believe every company has a responsibility to reduce GHG as quickly as it can. Wal-Mart can help restore balance to climate systems, reduce greenhouse gases, save money for our customers, and reduce dependence on oil.”

Lee Scott21st Century Leadership

Presentation Nov. 24, 2005

On Climate Change Action

1. Aggressively investing approximately $500 million annually in technologies and innovation to do the following:

o Reducing GHG at our existing store, club and DC base around the world by 20 percent w/in 7 years.

o Designing and opening a viable prototype that is 25-30 percent more efficient and will produce up to 30 percent fewer greenhouse gas emissions within the next 4 years.

o Increasing fleet efficiency by 25% in the next 3 years, and doubling efficiency in the next 10 years.

o Sharing all learnings in technology with the world, including our competitors (the more people who can utilize this type of technology the larger the market and more we can save our customers)

On Climate Change Action

3. Assisting in the design and support of a green company program in China, where Wal-Mart would show preference to those suppliers and their factories involved in such a program.

4. Initiating a program here in the U.S. over the next 18 months that would show preference to suppliers who set their own goals and aggressively reduce their own emissions.

2. Aggressively pursuing regulatory and policy change that will create incentives for utilities to invest in energy efficiency and low or no greenhouse gas sources of electricity, and to reduce barriers to integrating these sources into the power grid.

These commitments are a first step. To address climate change we need to cut emissions worldwide. We know that these commitments won’t even maintain our fast growing company’s overall emissions at current levels. There is more to do and we are committed to doing our part.

We are committed to the following:

• $1 billion per year commitment

• Supply chain energy efficiency• Wireless embedded sensor

applications• Energy Efficiency Certificates• Green Servers and Data

Centers• Intelligent Utility Networks -

Smart Grids• Carbon management• Advanced Water Management• Solar electric technology• Computational modeling• Project finance for Data

Centers (both IBM and non-IBM components)

• Integrated mass transit information systems

MeshNetics and ZigBee Slash Industrial Facility’s Energy Bill By 37%

A wireless network with a web server oversees the facility’s energy usage.

Every 10 minutes, all values collected by the ZigBee modules are sent to the web server, which in turn channels the values over the internet to a database.

Each time the web server connects to the database, changed values are read and sent back to the local ZigBee-based controllers.

Global Total Wireless Sensor Network Building Control Units by Protocol 2007-2011

• BACnet® industry group is working with the ZigBee Alliance to make protocols interoperable

• IP based building controls through service oriented architectures and Web services are gaining traction through organizations such as oBIX

• IETF’s 6LoWPAN working group is focused on IP based wireless sensing and control devices to facilitate new Internet based web services

ON World, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) for Smart Buildings, June 2007, www.onworld.com/

WSN is both driving and benefiting from Web centric technologies and traditional building controls.

Public Policies

State Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS)A market-based performance standard

ACEEE, Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS) forRetail Electricity & Natural Gas Distributors, Sept. 2008, http://aceee.org/energy/national/eers0908.htm

Implementing a proposed national EERS would commit every state to utilizing this least-cost resource and establish a baseline level of cost-effective and achievable energy savings. Retail electricity and natural gas distributors must achieve a particular percentage of energy savings relative to forecasted energy sales.

Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/

Rich Cowart, Power System Carbon Caps: Portfolio-based Carbon Management”, NREL Carbon Analysis Forum, 11-07, www.rap-online.org/ citing:

Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/

Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/

Environmental/ health

externalities $10+ trillion

Military/ Security

externalities $10+ trillion

USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000

$25 trillion energy costs

$325 billion Dept of Energy

4% for all efficiency & 5% all renewables

Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not RepresentCustomer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions

$8 trillion losses price

volatlity

Status Quo Retail-driven Scenario

2/3 efficiency

solar, wind biofuels

• Lower energy costs

• Lower price volatility

• Lower Environmental & Health externalities

• Lower military & security externalities

DOE budget

Priorities PrioritiesOutcomes OutcomesOil industryUtility industryCoal industryNatural gas industryNuclear industryLarge Hydro industry

ConsumersRetailersSuppliersManufacturersNatural resource sector

High energy costsVolatile PricesSecurity vulnerabilityHigher pollution levelsLong-term environmental damage

• Shift of capital from utility sector to retail sector

• Greening supply chain out of avoided utility costs

• Tax-free reductions in air & water pollution

2007-2030

What a Retail-oriented R&D Strategy Can DoSupporting long-term stable funding for basic and applied R&D of energy, water and resource efficiency in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural sectors, plus combined heat and power (CHP), solar photovoltaics, windpower, and cellulosic biofuels, ensures a continuous pipeline of new production methods for commercializing higher performance, lower cost and less polluting goods.

Supporting continuous updating of Technology Road Maps ensures identifying new trends and emergent opportunities.

Ultra-Efficient System Opportunities

Vehicle-to-Grid

Convergences & Emergences

Electric vehicles with onboard battery storageand bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind.

Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs

Immense Implications of V-to-Grid

1. National vehicle fleet becomes a vast distribution system of mobile batteries

2. Intermittent solar and wind energy sources become economically attractive because plug-in vehicles provide battery storage

3. Vehicles can recharge batteries using lower cost off-peak power

4. Vehicles can also provide “spinning reserve” in case of load loss, earning income on parked “asset”

5. Dramatic reductions in oil dependency6. Significant reductions in total power plant capacity

needs

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity

Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or

73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average

ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).

OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings

AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)

27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOxnationwide (from higher coal generation).

Utility payment for accessing battery when PHEV parked

Google already announced that it wants the U.S. to use 100 percent alternative energy by 2030.

Now Google & GE plan to 1) focus on developing and investing in green energy technologies; and 2) lobbying US political leaders to support alternative.

“Both companies believe that our economic, environmental and security challenges require that we use electricity more efficiently, generate it from cleaner sources, and electrify our transportation fleet.

This 21st century electricity system must combine advanced energy technology -- a major GE focus -- and cutting edge information technology -- a major Google focus.”

form Green Superpower Alliance&

EPRI, GM, 34 UTILITIES COLLABORATE TO ADVANCE PLUG-IN HYBRID

ELECTRIC VEHICLESGroup Aims to Accelerate Grid Integration

and Deployment

Members of the Energy Security Leadership Council - retired US Marine Corps General P.X. Kelley, retired US Navy Admiral Gregory Johnson, retired US Air Force General Charles Wald, President and CEO of FedEx Corporation Fred Smith and Vice Chairman of GoldmanSachs Robert Hormats, hold a news conference to discuss the dangers of the United States' oil dependence

Marine Corps Commandant General P.X. Kelly (rtd)Electrify transport for National Security

“The recent conflict between Georgia and Russia has once again highlighted the profound danger that oil dependence poses to free nations, including the United States. Our nation's deep reliance on oil, largelyimported from unstable and, in some cases, hostile regimes is corrosive to the integrity and effectiveness of American security policy. The electrification of transportation represents a major transformation of our energy equation.” General P.X. Kelly, Sept. 12, 2008

www.oilendgame.org/ 2004

Doubling efficiency vehicle fleet at average

cost $15 per barrel

Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries

More absolute poverty than any time in human history

Large percentages physically impaired & mentally stunted for lifeAnd vast percentage chronically ill and premature morbidity

by Jose Goldemberg, Amulya Reddy, Thomas Johannson, Robert Williams

End-use-oriented global energy strategy

Showed nearly 30 years ago how economically attractive energy technology was available to provide people worldwide with the level of well-being experienced by modern Europeans in the 1970s, on just 1 KW of energy supply.

For comparison, the U.S. average is 10kW, OECD countries range between 4 and 7 kW, the world average is about 2.5 kW.

At the time they published the book, the average energy consumption in developing countries was 1 kW. But it was super-inefficient, as well as highly polluting and sickness causing.

Goldemberg, Reddy, Williams & Johannson, Energy Strategy for Sustainable Development, Wiley-India

Brightening up life

Micro-utility service provider Mr. Umor, who owns a grocery shop. He bought a PV system with 6 lamps. One lights his shop, and he rents the other 5 to nearby shops, increasing income by $12.50/month, paying for entire investment in 40 months.

CFL factories displace powerplants

source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991]

The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.

UV Waterworks uses ultraviolet light to quickly, safely, and cheaply disinfect water of the viruses and bacteria that cause cholera, typhoid, dysentery, and other deadly diseases.

UV Waterworks can be powered by a car battery or a 60-watt solar cell, is about the size of a microwave oven, and weighs about 15 pounds.

It can disinfect water at the rate of four gallons per minute, for about five cents for every thousand gallons.

Clean, Safe Water

China growth in

Green LEED-

certified Buildings

Shanghai Skyway Oasis Hotel LEED-certified

Hangzhou Xihu Tiandi retail LEED PlatinumHarbin Municipal LEED green buildingSilo City Beijing LEED green building

Century Prosper Center green building Beijing

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

High-E Windows displacing pipelines

Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.

LeSang Green Mall in Harbin Hushan Green Apartments in Shenzhen

Immense Distributed Energy PotentialRecent assessments indicate China could pursue 100 percent high-efficiency decentralized energy (DE) systems through 2021 at a superior financial return than central station investments. Retail and capital cost savings could reach $400 billion by 2021.

At no extra cost, new emissions of CO2 would drop 56%, avoiding 400 megatons of CO2emissions per year, and declines in NOx and SOx emissions by 90 %.

But these results are possible only if China adopts key innovative policies enabling a dramatically faster rate of implementation than the current annual CHP addition of 3 GW. Some 100 GW of CHP could be online by 2010 if a number of important power sector reforms occur.

Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildingsBrick house construction is still widely used in many rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.

The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.

RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES

Constructing commercial buildings to be solar passive, active and electric ready

Newport Coast Elementary School

Computer tools such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) help designers in making more effective decisions when using passive solar design.

Wes Kennedy, VP

Solar-Ready Building turns this:

Wes Kennedy, VP

…..into This!

Constructing commercial buildings to be solar passive, active and

electric ready

Rooftop PV array on Bayonne, NJ high school

What Supply After Efficiency?

USA Renewable Electricity Growth – [R]evolution Scenario

Source: European Renewable Energy Council & Greenpeace, Energy [R]evolution,, 01-07, www.greenpeace.org/usa/press/reports

(366 TWh)

(285 TWh)

(114 TWh)

(1,220 TWh)

(341 TWh)

(510 TWh)

(33 TWh)

(3,400 TWh – not shown)EFFICIENCY TOTAL

(2,868 TWh)RENEWABLE TOTAL

Released Jan 2007

By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture.

Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.

Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-w/storage turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-w/storage

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?

WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Wind & Solar experts

Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies

Web Calculator-Visualizer for emissions reductions from biofuels, wind-batteries, solar-batteries

Mark Jacobson, Stanford

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

US Population Concentration28 coastal states use 78% of the electricity

MASH-UPS W/ MYRIAD INTERACTIVE WEB CALCULATORS & VISUALIZERS SHOWING RE2 (e.g.,

WIND FARMS, PV panels, efficiency) TO MEET POPULATION CENTER ENERGY DEMANDS

$68 billion for transmission expansion

Figures of MeritGreat Plains area

1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2

Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2

Still available for farming and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

1. Unsuitable – lands where development is prohibited (Appalachian Trail corridors, for example) or "high conflict" areas

2. Less than ideal – federal or state conservation lands rated "medium conflict"

3. Conditionally favorable –Conservation or open space lands rated "low conflict," or open space or private lands rated "medium conflict":

4. Most favorable –Unrestricted private land and "low conflict" areas

The Great Plains’ huge wind resource, combined with wind farms’ small footprints and excellent GIS mapping tools, can enable siting that minimizes ecological damage

Wyoming wind power potential is 750 billion kWh/yr – 20% of current U.S. total electricity consumption.

Kansas (right) wind power potential is 1 trillion kWh/yr –30% of current U.S. total electricity consumption.

South Dakota wind power potential is 1 trillion kWh/yr –30% of current U.S. total electricity consumption.

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

Potential Synergisms

2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands --which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.

Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered

Droughts

Spacing between turbines

Marine Area for Wind Turbines to Provide 50% of U.S. Energy

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – INCREASING OFFSHORE WIND FARMS DECREASING EMISSIONS, OIL IMPORTS, COAL PLANTS

Professor Willett Kempton, Univ. of Delaware

Wind resources offshore are some of the best in the world, and could provide

half the nation’s total energy needs from a relatively small area

In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Cleaning Up Brownfield

Sites w/ PV solar

Solar PV satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields

30 million acres of 10% eff. PV systems could supply US total energy needs – fuels and electricity

Stefan Nowak, The IEA PVPS Programme – into the second decade of International Co-operation Results and Challenges, www.iea.org/

Electricity Potential from BIPV

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPV

SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

+$11,024 1.702

+$15,373 1.892

NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)

Aluminum

+$14,237 2.141

+$18,586 2.331

NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)

Polished Stone

ShanghaiBeijingEconomic Measure

Material Replaced

Net Present Values, Benefit-Cost Ratios and Payback Periods for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV

2007 system price

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Wind turbine Solar-electric combinedcycle

coal-fired nuclear

Water Consumption (liters per MWh)

Wind Water Use 99% less than Needed for Fossil or Nuclear Energy Production

Solar photovoltaic & wind power systems use between 200 and 500 times less water to generate electricity than fossil and nuclear systems

Vehicle-to-Grid

Con

verg

ence

s &

Em

erge

nces

Ubiquitous Communication

Cognitive Surplus

Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality.

The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.

One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.

www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html

http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/

Clay Shirkey’s

The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 70,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 140+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

• General purpose tool for gathering and distributing knowledge swiftly

• Process not product, never finished• Error-correcting process leads to

better articles, on average, over time• Every web page latent community

able to be enhanced and grown with conversation, sharing, plug-ins

• Cumulated insights with annotated changes

ENJOY THE RIDE

DE-CARBONIZEDFOSSIL FUELS?

$- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

$ cost of CO2 abatement

Demonstration phase(2015)

Early commercial phase(2020+)

Mature commercial phase(2030+)

CCS overall cost journey - reference case

$88-$132

$51-$74

$44-$66

McKinsey & Co., Carbon Capture and Storage, Assessing the Economics, Sept. 22, 2008

$-$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50

CCS REDD

Geological storage (CCS) vsEcological storage (REDD)

Carbon Mitigation Cost per ton CO2

U.S. Fossil- fueled Electricity Carbon Offset cost nationally per year

~$60 billion3 ¢ per kWh

~$10 billion0.5 ¢ per kWh

Research commissioned by the Stern Review, indicates that the direct yields from land converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber, are equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton.

Avoided Deforestation potentially offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, and large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options, second only to energy efficiency options.

For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.

The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 timesthis amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.

NUCLEAR POWER?

The fascination with nuclear power is due to the fact that 1 ton of uranium can displace 20,000 tons of coal

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

Operating CO2 emitted per delivered kWh

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services