Scenario Planning - WiLSWorld 2014

© 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

Listening to the Future: Exploring the Future of Libraries

Daniel W. Rasmus Managing Director & Principal Analyst

Serious Insights !

@DanielWRasmus

Daniel W. Rasmus Strategist


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@DanielWRasmus

Education economist.com

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conferencesRead, listen, read

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Community

Continuous LearningPoetic Moments

Questions from Customers &

Students

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How I do my work

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UncertaintiesScenarios

Daniel W. Rasmus Strategist

Daniel W. Rasmus

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N E T W O R K









How will libraries work in 2024?


What Just Happened?

The Variables Collapsed into a Set of Values

One

Sto

ry



The phonog

raph

is of no

commercial

value

!

Thomas Edi

son

“By 2000, machines will be producing so much that

everyone in the U.S. will,

in effect, be independently

wealthy. With government

benefits, even non-working

families will have an annual

income of $30-40,000” !Time Magazine, 1966

There is no reason for any individual to have a computer

in their home !Ken Olsen, President Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

No woman in my t

ime will

be Prime Ministe

r or

Chancellor or Fo

reign

Secretary—not th

e top

jobs. Anyway I w

ouldn't

want to be Prime

Minister. You ha

ve to

give yourself 10

0%.

Margaret Thatcher in Sunday

Telegraph (London, Oct. 26, 1969

on her appointment as Shadow

Education Spokesman.)


NEW YORK, Thursday , October 19, 1967

By the year 2000, people will work no more than four days a week and less than eight hours a day. With legal holidays and long vacations, this could result in an annual working

period of 147 days worked and 218 days off.


As I've said many times, the future is already here. It's just not very evenly distributed.

William Gibson during an NPR interview (30 November 1999 Timecode 11:55)

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1067220









More generally, the attention of the right expert at the right time is often the single most valuable resource one can have in creative problem solving. Expert attention is to creative problem solving what water is to life in the desert: it’s the fundamental scarce resource. !Nielsen, Michael (2011-10-23). Reinventing Discovery: The New Era of

Networked Science (Kindle Locations 392-394). Princeton University Press. Kindle Edition.


Marshal McLuhan

“We become what we behold. We shape our tools

and then our tools shape us.”


Understanding Uncertainty


Just What is Uncertainty?


How Will We Access Information?


How Will We Represent Books?


Library Location

Decentralized & Local

Centralized & Virtual


Licensing ApproachCentralized & Unified

Fragmented &

Independent


Organizational Dissonance


How Much Stuff Can One Person Carry?

http://www.heritage.org/~/media/Images/Reports/2012/08/HSGAC%20Testimony/Historical%20Cost%20of%20Computer%20Memory%20and%20Storage%20%20Large.ashx

http://www.heritage.org/~/media/Images/Reports/2012/08/HSGAC%20Testimony/Historical%20Cost%20of%20Computer%20Memory%20and%20Storage%20%20Large.ashx


Market Position

Boutique Small Press & Local

General Information


Budget to retool?


How Will We Find Stuff?

Statistics?

Semantics?

Will stuff find me?

Metadata?


What Do We Hire A Library to Do?


Top Ten Trending Searches on Google: 2013Rank Overall Searches -

The World 2014Overall Searches -

The US 2014Overall Searches -

The World 2013Overall Searches -

The US 2013

1 Nelson Mandela Boston Marathon Whitney Houston Whitney Houston

2 Paul Walker Government Shutdown Gangnam Style Hurricane Sandy

3 iPhone 5S VMAs Hurricane Sandy Election 2012

4 Cory Monteith Tornado in Moore, Okla. iPad 3 Hunger Games

5 Harlem Shake Royal Baby Diablo 3 Jeremy Lin

6 Boston Marathon Zimmerman Trial Kate Middleton Olympics 2012

7 Royal Baby Typhoon Hiyan Olympics 2012 Amanda Todd

8 Samsung Galaxy S4 New Pope Amanda Todd Gangnam Style

9 PlayStation 4 Syria Conflict Michael Clarke Duncan Michael Clarke Duncan

10 North Korea Maryweather vs. Canelo 55512 KONY 2012



Preservation or Access or ????



How Will We Represent Knowledge?

Does you ontology have an epistemology?

RDF

RDF Schema

Knowledge

Representation

Entity-

RelationshipsDAML

OILFrame-based

Systems

KR Topic MapOWL


The Relationship With Publishers

Pay more

walk away




The Relationship with Devices

Lend

Facilitate Ownership


any better than this?

Why is this…


Fragmented

Learning Approach

Holistic


What Will be the Role of Place?


Regional and Bounded?

Open with no Boundaries?

The World



Education

Influential and Leading?

Irrelevant and subsistent?


Learning Motivation

I learn just-in-time

I learn what my org tells me to



Broad-Cast (Discovery)

Narrow-Cast (Over Concentrate)

Curiosity


Personal Technology

Implanted

External


Who Will Document the Trust, Who Will Censor?

Internet censorship by country


What Rights Management Model will Predominate?

Digital Rights Management

vs. Digital Restriction Management


What Will We Need to Know?


90% of the jobs

people will hold ten

years from now don’t

exist today


Workforce Analysis Report: Energy Sector Jobs in Greater Pittsburgh, August 2012 !

Read more: http://triblive.com/business/2618872-74/jobs-energy-report-industry-sector-fill-pennsylvania-percent-pittsburgh-region#ixzz2Cu0hS3Tj

http://triblive.com/business/2618872-74/jobs-energy-report-industry-sector-fill-pennsylvania-percent-pittsburgh-region#ixzz2Cu0hS3Tj


Gene Screener

Custom Pharmacist

Quarantine Enforcer

Drowned City Specialist

Time Shifting Coach

Robotic Mechanic

Animal Guardian

Entertainment Holographer

Space Tour Guide

Hydrogen Fuel Station Manager

GMO Investigator

Computational biologist

Computational Artist

Authenticity Engineer

Biotech Distributor

Parallel programmer

Desalination Engineers and Operators

Big Data Emgineer

Simulation engineer

Boomer companions, caretakers , counselors

Genetic counselor

Geriatric Medical Trainer

Brain analyst

Private Astronaut

Robot builders, tenders

Environmental Engineer

Environment Steward

Biofuel Engineer

Digital Actor

Sustainability Economist

Data Archaeologist

Choice Architect

Archeo-BiologistAsteroid Miner



Forecasting: Future Skills

GelGel Integration Window

Smart

Screen

Gel Manufacturin

Saline

Purificatio

Gel Speaker

Assembly

Gel Speaker

Repair

• Follow-on research

• Company Founding

• Angel Funding

• Venture Funding

• Patent Filing

• Legal Disputes

• Product Announcement

• Product Release

• Bankruptcy

• Silence


Analytics

Insightful and Empowering

Insightful and Oppressive


Just What is Scenario

Planning?


Scenario Planning

What we want to be tomorrow…

Vision or Future State

Future 1 Future

2

Future 3

Future 4

Strategy

Test ideas, concepts and strategies

against various plausible futures in

order to understand how robust

they are in the face of changeAvoid surprises

Test and challenge prevailing

assumptions

Identify emergent opportunities

Prepare for adaptation

Who we are & What we do today

UncertaintyCreate an early warning

systemSWOT

Understand implications for different possible future on

strategies, goals and objectives


Outside-In Thinking


The World

Your Industry or Field Human Capital

High Influence

Some Influence

Environmental Factors: Little or No Influence

Your Organization

Market size, growth, & volatility

Competitors Agencies

Contractors Who you hire

Regulatory environment

Social Technological

Economic Environmental

Political


Scenarios are important for the conversations they spark and the decisions they inform.

Scenarios Are Not Predictions…

The task is not so much to see what no one

has yet seen, but to think what nobody has

yet thought about that which everyone sees.

Schopenhauer:


The Measure of Success

Productivity vs. Serendipity

Save

Tim

e

Mak

e Co

nnec

tion

s

Mea

sure

stu

ff


Black SwansClass Warfare in the United States Locally strong pandemic effects The Great Meltdown Economic collapse & realignment Internet Security Breaches & Cyberterrorism Major Loss of Data Major Loss of Control India/China Cold War Major Loss of Access Solar Super-storm/Satellite-mageddon Rare Earth Commodity Wars Quantum Computing Plasma Rockets The Singularity


Introduction to Future of

Learning Scenarios


Learning Approach

Mot

ivat

ion

Internal (Individual)

Fragmented Holistic

External (State/Corporation)

Time Out

Open LearningSubprime Learning

Corporate Lifeline


Is a world in which… •Corporate and private

partnerships have grown to define the way things are done

•Your career is determined early by corporate education partners and they help you enter the workforce

•The US remains the dominate global economic driver

•People Live to work and work to Live

Subprime Learning

Time Out

Open Learning

Corporate Lifeline


Social

Pervasive surveillance, less privacy

Homogenous, global pop culture

Information easy to find, often biased, but

people don’t care

“Archologies”: or corp. towns common

Corporate universities play important

social role Many people are time-shifted

People happy, but not very fulfilled

TechnologicalUniversal network access Increasingly centralized data access, collection & storage Unified identification Organizational-oriented reputation systems

Business Intelligence applied to work and communications

EconomicSteady economic recovery, largely led by the U.S. Hierarchical Strong Middle Class Global oligopolies dominate Return of “Organization” person Managed, incremental innovation Efficiency and price drive corp. behavior

Trading blocks Terrorism replaced by industrial espionage Opaque rules In-sourcing Scale uber alles

Green is about marketing and diverting attention Real work in environment only takes place where it serves interest of the firm, or negotiated interest with partner, either public or private

Environmental

Political

Fluid political boundaries Strong public/private cooperation More barriers to entry legislated for new corporations Regional tensions cool as large organizations dominate culture Success measured by wealth and stability



Is a world in which… • Globalization has

fractured • Countries and regions

are turning inward to shore-up their own societies and infrastructures

• Nationalism and State control predominates

• The world slowly dis-integrates

Subprime Learning

Time Out

Open Learning

Corporate Lifeline



Social

Nationalistic

Repatriation

Declining health from lack of international

cooperation

Strong local cultural identity

Religious movements more conservative

Education = indoctrination

TechnologicalDis-integration Local/ Regional Sourcing State Surveillance Inter-organizational collaboration and comms Information translation and format transcription both key

Regionally-oriented reputation systems

EconomicStagnant world economy More trade barriers Physical movement of goods as important as

bits Regional leaders, markets, brands and products Manufacturing returns, along with low wages Outsourced work is (re-) in-sourced More human labor, less automation

Environmental

PoliticalStrained inter-national relations Chinese/Indian Cold War Strong anti-U.S. sentiment Multiple regional conflicts Regional standards and regulations Nationalism, regionalism, and protectionism drive agenda Education gets ideological budget increases Success measured through self-reliance

Only if local or personal concern. Immediate survival or accomplishment trumps long-term concerns


Is a world in which… • Deep financial crisis. • The old rules have stopped

working completely • Local networks manage

where national policy fails • People feel numb • Loud calls for a US

Constitutional Convention • Lack of institutional trust • We take care of our own

Subprime Learning

Time Out

Open Learning

Corporate Lifeline


Social

Street smarts trump technical expertise

Constant change for the worse

More violence: “not-so-smart” mobs to

General sense of scarcity, shortages

Fatigue with complexity

Growth in fundamentalism

Taking care of one’s own: focus on family, return of

“tribe” and “micro-cultures”

Individual self-reliance

Personal security at a premium

Many people feel numb

TechnologicalReuse and refurbishment Stealing bandwidth and cable common Need for multiple aliases Older versions of software survive Not a lot to connect to More missed information because of more mis-information Community-oriented reputation systems

EconomicTriple dip. “Incumbent” companies troubled: IP, workforce, markets, liabilities… Falling standards of living Innovation succeeds by taking into account

community problems Increase in the “grey” economy Large areas of foreclosed homes occupied by squatters Major faults along class lines

PoliticalLoss of confidence in governments and international bodies Calls for Constitutional Convention in US Even more independence between Canadian providences Increasing influence of NGOs and social entrepreneurs Brain-drain from neoconservative] Communitization of public services, esp. at the local level

EnvironmentalEconomic decline reduces energy needs Extraction industries slow dramatically Waste becomes more human and less industrial



Is a world in which… • Large corporations have

largely become holding companies

• Value-webs have taken the place of supply-chains

• Individuals create their own, contextual work environments

• Technological innovation is rampant and chaotic

• The world into which the Millennials are taking us kicking and screaming

Subprime Learning

Time Out

Open Learning

Corporate Lifeline


SocialNetworks predominate Disorienting The truth is crowd-sourced Global identification systems Massive mobility Popular spirituality movements

Short half-life of success Personal branding People take time to take time Open access to info. and education Just-in-Time Learning Portfolios of skills

EconomicKnowledge Economy Kicks in

World economy remains turbulent

Value webs dominate Redundancy and transparency ensure continuity

Rapid boom/bust cycles

Fast-paced collaborative innovation and change

Smells like opportunity and optimism

Fluid invention andre-invention Reputation is everything

Personal brands

Technological

Emphasis on relationship management in all aspects of life

Massive contact lists

Blurring between enterprise and extra-enterprise

networks

Strength and success in open source atop common “plug-

in” infrastructure

Viruses rampant

Security & rights management

move to document level

Personal prioritization and attention management

Personal reputation systems

Attention management

Distributed surveillance and security

Large environmental movement fueled by social connections Peer pressure becomes common in behavior change Everybody has the potential to actually see what happens in sensitive areas and often do

Environmental

Political

Traditional models give way to distributed governance Highly participatory, near direct democracy Self-interests are business interests Revolutionary upheavals in education, tax structure and international relations Success measured by value of networks



Scenarios and Buildings


Implications


Designing Tomorrow’s Book

Given what you know about

technology, and within the constraints

of your future, design what a book

might look like, what features it might

have, its licensing model, etc.


The Implication for Libraries: What do People Hire the Library For?

•Access to Information: Standard platform •Representation of Books: Commercial,

constrained •Storage & Capacity: Near Infinite-controlled

public cloud •Role of Library: Community/State meeting

place •How we Measure Success: Industrial age •Rights Management: Restriction

management/state

•Access to Information: Digital •Representation of Books: Commercial,

constrained •Storage & Capacity: Near infinite-controlled

private cloud •Role of Library: Extension of professional

development, research •How we Measure Success: Industrial age •Rights Management: Restriction

management

•Access to Information: Physical •Representation of Books: Paper •Storage & Capacity: Limited •Role of Library: Community space, learning

center •How we Measure Success: Knowledge economy •Rights Management: Communal Ownership

•Access to Information: Primarily digital. •Representation of Books: Open interoperability. •Storage & Capacity: Near infinite, cloud and

personnal •Role of Library: Virtual and physical community •How we Measure Success: Knowledge economy •Rights Management: Ownership and personal

control


Sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem accusantium doloremque laudantium, totam rem aperiam,

eaque ipsa quae ab illo inventore veritatis et quasi architecto beatae vitae dicta sunt explicabo. Nemo enim ipsam

voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem

sequi nesciunt. Neque porro quisquam est, qui dolorem ipsum quia dolor sit amet, consectetur, adipisci velit, sed quia non numquam eius modi tempora incidunt ut labore et dolore

magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem. Ut enim ad minima veniam, quis nostrum exercitationem ullam corporis suscipit

laboriosam, nisi ut aliquid ex ea commodi consequatur? Quis autem vel eum iure reprehenderit qui in ea voluptate velit

esse quam nihil molestiae consequatur, vel illum qui dolorem eum fugiat quo voluptas nulla pariatur?

At vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos ducimus qui blanditiis praesentium voluptatum deleniti atque corrupti

quos dolores et quas molestias excepturi sint occaecati cupiditate non provident, similique sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollitia animi, id est laborum et dolorum fuga. Et harum quidem rerum facilis est et expedita distinctio. Nam libero tempore, cum soluta nobis est eligendi optio cumque

nihil impedit quo minus id quod maxime placeat facere possimus, omnis voluptas assumenda est, omnis dolor

repellendus. Temporibus autem quibusdam et aut officiis debitis aut rerum necessitatibus saepe eveniet ut et

voluptates repudiandae sint et molestiae non recusandae. Itaque earum rerum hic tenetur a sapiente delectus, ut aut

reiciendis voluptatibus maiores alias consequatur aut perferendis doloribus asperiores repellat.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipisicing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna

aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.

Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat

cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum.

Metadata about ideas

$-Pay for access Author & Experts

CloudPersonal

Social Network

Lectures “blog” for owners only

Book ca

n be

“reconst

ructed”

in

a non-li

near way

around k

ey idea

s

other references: in-app purchase

meme tracking: is this still

relevant? If so, to what, to

whom?

Interaction metrics back to publishers-What

part of the book is engaging the

reader?

You choose where to display (including wall or table)

Including which App

DRM-Pass Thru

Persistent Notes

right to resell - lend

Share socially down to

idea

Intelligent paper

interacts with e-copies

You decide where it lives!

Perpetual content license with migration fees


The future is uncertain and you have to put a name on uncertainty.

You can’t predict the future.

How you currently think about the future is dangerous.

Take-Aways


WHY?

Because we have to plan

not only for the future

we want, but for the

future we are given.


Change is a Design Problem



Thank You


For more information, please contact: !

!

!

!

!

!

425.868.0271 [email protected]

seriousinsights.net !

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@DanielWRasmus

mailto:[email protected]