Scenario Planning 2012

(c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 2012 All rights reserved

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Think About the Future

And convert your thoughts to an ASSET


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• WHY do we do this• HOW does it work• WHERE does it work• WHEN should you use it• WHO should use it• WHAT are the benefits


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WHYFor each business case organizations need to consider a comprehensive set of future events• The current approach is often based on “PEST” analysis of event clusters:

• Political • Economic• Social• Technological

However - this approach does not recognize that there may be a cause-and-effect relationship between these event clusters


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• The future will be comprised of EVENTS• The events will be caused by PEOPLE and/or NATURE• Organizations (both Private and Public) consider the future before making strategic choices for investment of resources in a BUSINESS CASE• We can classify the future events into CONTROLLABLE / UNCONTROLLABLE (by management) on a case-by-case basis


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The outcomes of future events can be considered in terms of RISK:• The extreme outcome in favor of the business case• The extreme in conflict with the business case• The most likely outcome


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The most likely outcome can be considered in terms of:• The probability of occurrence• The peak timing • The impact on the business case

This reasoning is already well established in the management tool :

“FAILURE MODE EFFECTS ANALYSIS”


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HOW

To reflect the cause-and-effect relationships between the clusters of future events, we have

developed the Amplios Risk & Opportunity Model

“AMPROSS”as shown in the following graphic


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1. SOCIAL issues arise from Human Needs2. APPROACHES are is used for immediate effect3. TECHNOLOGY enhances the approach4. ECONOMIC benefits arise from the solution5. NATURAL RESOURCES (including human) are applied6. POLITICAL issues arise from benefits sharing7. LEGAL solutions are applied to resolve issues8. INTERNATIONAL issues arise from different systems9. DEMOGRAPHIC movement follows10. ENVIRONMENTAL impact issues arise


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As a reminder of the sequence, we can use the memory prompt:

SATENPLIDE


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WHEREThe Ampross model assists us to identify for any

particular business case:• Future events affecting the:• Industry• Industry Group• Locality• Country• Region• Profession

• Preceding and consequential future events• Associated opportunities


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WHEN

The model is used:

• Prior to any major new investment decision• Continuously in monitoring current investments• Prior to the annual business planning process


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WHOThe model is designed to be used by:• Senior and middle management in:• medium-to-large enterprises• government ministries• professional associations

• Management trainers• Strategy Consultants• Journalists seeking background for articles• Students performing research in industries• Job seekers performing research on prospects


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WHO . . .The model has already been used by seniormanagement in projects in:• South East Asia – Satellite Industry• South Asia:• Petroleum Imports, Construction, Hospitality• Pharmaceuticals Imports, Retail, Transport Industries

• Training programs in:• Singapore, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Malaysia• Oman, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam

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A Recent Project - South East Asia – Satellite Industry

Space debris problem getting worse(c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd

2012 All rights reserved

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A recent (ongoing) project in South Asia

We studied the future of hospitality & tourism in the Maldives



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A recent (ongoing) project in South Asia

Our consultants’ project office is on Male’, the capital city island


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The Scenario Planning techniques developed by Amplios have been given international recognition by publication of one of the case studies in this text published by Wylie in March 2012. The Amazon link is:http://www.amazon.com/Scenario-Planning-Field-Guide-Future/dp/1118170156/ref=sr_1_14?ie=UTF8&qid=1320872440&sr=8-14The author, Woody Wade, is an international subject matter expert in Scenario Planning with a background at the World Economic Forum, Switzerland

http://www.amazon.com/Scenario-Planning-Field-Guide-Future/dp/1118170156/ref=sr_1_14?ie=UTF8&qid=1320872440&sr=8-14




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WHO . . .

There are 1 million potential users on LinkedIn


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SOME OF OUR CLIENTS


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WHATThe benefits of using the model are:• Due diligence requirements are thoroughly

addressed before entering into investment risk• The process is easily understood by all stakeholders• The process gets all players on the same page • The results are communicated in graphics• The results are supported by links to source

documents• The preparation is rapid• The updating of the process is rapid


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CONVERTING YOUR THOUGHTS TO AN ASSET• The model engages the services of researchers, who

are engaged to:• Read the documents related to future events as supplied

by Amplios• Identify the future events, risks and opportunities

related to the subject business case• Assign first impression values as to probability of

occurrence, timing, impact on the business case, for the extreme and most likely outcomes

• The research work and role then becomes an asset on the researcher’s personal profile


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CONVERTING YOUR THOUGHTS TO AN ASSET . . .

• The researchers can be independent or employees of corporate / government users of the system

• The researchers can then be employed as trainers in the use of the methodology

• The research then becomes an asset of the corporation / government institution and the foundation for its strategic planning


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Scenario Planning (Structured Future Thinking) is the foundation for sound implementation of a coordinated suite of management tools


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NEXT STEPS

Get in touch with Amplios regarding:• Scenario Planning, Horizon Scanning and Foresight

Projects• Management Training programs• Regional Consulting / Training partnerships

Further details can be found at the website:www.amplios.net

Wilson Fyffe direct email: [email protected]

http://www.amplios.net/

Business

Scenario Planning 2012