Scenario Planning Tools

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Scenario Planning Toolkit

The toolkit was developed for the Department for Transport by Waverley ManagementConsultants.

Although this report was commissioned by the Department for Transport, the findings and recommendationsare those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the DfT.

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Contents

The scenario planning toolkit..................................................................................1

Introduction...............................................................................................................3

Who uses scenarios? ..............................................................................................3

Overview of the scenario process...........................................................................6

Further information..................................................................................................7

Introduction...............................................................................................................8

The scenario matrix..................................................................................................8

Overview of the scenarios.......................................................................................9

Presenting the scenarios.......................................................................................12

Plausibility matrix...................................................................................................14

Futureproofing........................................................................................................15

Looking for signals.................................................................................................17

Reverse engineering..............................................................................................20

Policy brainstorm...................................................................................................23

The fifth scenario....................................................................................................26

STEEP Analysis......................................................................................................31

Visioning.................................................................................................................33

Step 1: The future...................................................................................................33

Step 2: Current reality............................................................................................34

Issue Trees..............................................................................................................35

Predetermined elements and critical uncertainties.............................................37

Stakeholder analysis..............................................................................................39

Creating Scenarios.................................................................................................41

Economic Performance..........................................................................................45

Economic Performance..........................................................................................45

Environmental Performance..................................................................................45

Environmental Performance..................................................................................45

Social Parameters ..................................................................................................46

Social Parameters ..................................................................................................46

Transport Activity...................................................................................................46

Transport Activity...................................................................................................46

Health impacts........................................................................................................47

Health impacts........................................................................................................47

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Health impacts........................................................................................................47

Annex 1: IIS scenarios Aide Memoire

Annex 2: Slide set: Overview of the IIS Scenarios

Annex 3: Slide set: Scenarios and their purpose

Annex 4: Working with the scenarios: Task sheets

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Introduction

The scenario planning toolkit

In 2006, Foresight1 launched the Intelligent InfrastructureSystems (IIS) project, a cross Government initiative toexplore how science and technology might be appliedover the next 50 years to the design and implementationof intelligent infrastructure for transport.

The project found that transport infrastructure will changeradically as scientific and technological developmentschange what we travel on, the vehicles we travel in andthe information we have about the system.2 It also foundthat building the kind of infrastructure the UK needs toremain competitive and provide high quality of life will nothappen automatically and that government and itsstakeholders will need to work together to make choices

about the levels and patterns of investment required toachieve what we all want.

Making choices of this type is not always straightforward. In a world of rapid change andincreasing uncertainty, it can be difficult to know what the right choices are and differentstakeholders may have different priorities and ideas about what is desirable ornecessary and may not have a shared view of how the future will develop.

To help clarify some of these long term issues and to provide a context to supportdecision making, the IIS project produced four possible scenarios that exploreuncertainties about the future of intelligent infrastructure systems: future scientificcapabilities, technological developments, the role of business and Government and

social attitudes. The scenarios are not an attempt to predict what will happen or tosuggest what the preferred future might be; they are stories which suggest variouspossible, even extreme, outcomes. They are designed to stimulate thought, to spell outsome of the opportunities and threats we might face in the future and to inform todaysdecisions. The full details of the scenarios can be used to judge the risks andopportunities of policy relating to the future management of intelligent infrastructure.

The purpose of this toolkit is to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with theresources they need to explore the scenarios and use them to support their own decisionmaking.

The toolkit is in four sections:

About scenario planning offers a briefintroduction to scenarios and the scenario process;

The IIS scenarios provides an overview of theIntelligent Infrastructure Systems scenarios;

Working with scenarios provides a suite oftechniques that can be used to facilitate discussions - ranging from 75 minutemeetings to day long workshops on the scenarios;

Using scenario techniques provides a suite of

1 Foresight is part of the DTIs Office of Science and Innovation

2 The full report can be found onForesights website

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Introduction

scenario and futures processes - ranging from 75 minute meetings to day longworkshops that may help general strategic discussions.

The Annexes contain slides and other supporting material.

The technique sheets are designed to be accessible to those with little experience offacilitation. They are not meant to be prescriptive, but to help get things started - andexperienced facilitators may wish to customise or develop them in light of their ownknowledge and experience. Although the toolkit is based on the IIS scenarios all theworkshop material can be used with any set of scenarios.

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About scenario planningA brief introduction to scenarios and the scenario process

Introduction.............................................................Error: Reference source not found

Who uses scenarios?..............................................Error: Reference source not found

Overview of the scenario process...........................Error: Reference source not found

Further information..................................................Error: Reference source not found

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About scenario planning

Introduction

Many organisations plan for the future or, at least, for a future that they believe or hopewill happen. Often, this future is based on best or worst case projections of currenttrends and bears an uncanny resemblance to the present. Consumers make similarchoices to the ones they make now, competitors offer similar products and services, andthe organisation itself does more or less the same things, with some minor changes ofemphasis that reflect the trends analysis.

This approach works best for organisations that operate in stable, predictableenvironments but most of todays businesses, educational institutions and other publicsector organisations are facing greater uncertainty and experiencing more change thanever before. They need an approach that helps them make sense of what is going on,spot new trends and events that are likely to affect them in future, and, perhaps, makesignificant changes to what they do and how they work.

Scenarios are a tool that organisations and policy makers - can use to help themimagine and manage the future more effectively. The scenario process highlights theprincipal drivers of change and associated uncertainties facing organisations today andexplores how they might play out in the future. The result is a set of stories that offeralternative views of what the future might look like.

Through discussion, organisations and policy makers can explore what they would dodifferently in each scenario. They can identify success criteria, suggest new ways ofworking and define new relationships. Generally, these differ in each scenario and thediscussion can help participants build a shared understanding of how the increasinglycomplex changes taking place in the world are likely to affect their activities.

The great strength of scenario planning is that it can be used to look at todays challengefrom a different perspective. The process of identifying and examining how currentfactors and trends might play out in the future helps participants focus on the likelyimpact of those trends on their own organisation. Quite often, participants find that theimpacts are going to be bigger or happen sooner than they had previously realised.

Ultimately, organisations use scenario planning to help them anticipate, prepare for ormanage change. As Stephen Ladyman UK Minister for Transport said at the launchof Foresights Intelligent Infrastructure Systems project in January 2006:

We can either stumble into the future and hope it turns out alright or we can try andshape it. To shape it, the first step is to work out what it might look like.

Who uses scenarios?

Scenarios are widely used by governments, businesses and voluntary organisations toinform strategy and policy development. They can be done on a large or small scale; aspart of a wider body of work or as a discrete exercise; as a way of gathering expertopinion from external bodies and individuals or as a method to develop internal thinking.

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The UK Foresight Programme

The UK Foresight programme, based in the Office of Science and Innovation, aimstoimprove the relative performance of UK science and engineering and its use bygovernment and society. To achieve this the programme identifies potentialopportunities for the economy or society from new science and technologies, orconsiders how future science and technologies could address key futurechallenges for society.

Foresight runs a rolling programme of projects with three and four running at anyone time. A project is either a key issue where science can offer possible solutions(e.g. flood and coastal defence), or an area of cutting edge science where thepotential applications and technologies have yet to be considered or articulatedmore broadly (e.g. cognitive systems).

Projects usually last between 12 and 18 months. Futures techniques are used toensure current trends and currently known technologies are not simply projectedforward and scenarios are normally a core part of the process. The scenarios areused to inform the recommendations for action by research funders, business,Government or others to make the most of the potential of science and technology.

The Foresight scenario methodology varies, but is largely workshop based,involving leading scientists, academics and policy experts to refine drivers andtrends, to identify key uncertainties and to detail and validate the scenariosketches. Detailed storylines are developed by drawing their ideas together with

the detailed research work that is commissioned as part of the process.

The National Intelligence Councils 2020 project

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is a centre of strategic thinking within theUS Government which provides the President and senior policymakers withanalyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinatedthroughout the Intelligence Community.

Mapping the Global Future, published in 2005, looks at how key global trends

might develop over the next decade and a half to influence world events. Thereport contains large amounts of data and uses four scenarios - Davos World, PaxAmericana, A New Caliphate, and Cycle of Fear- to try to capture how key trendsmight play out. The project process lasted about a year and NIC organizedconferences on five continents to solicit the views of foreign experts on theprospects for their regions over the next 15 years. More than a thousand peopleparticipated.

The project's primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how theworld developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negativedevelopments that might warrant policy action.

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The Department for Trade and Industry

The Department for Trade and Industry has a dedicated futures facility futurefocus@dti which develops and uses scenarios constantly.

The first set of scenarios used in thecentre Know How to Get Ahead,m-Governance and Local Heroes(collectively known as the DTI2015scenarios) were regionaldevelopment futures which offereddifferent perspectives on the social,economic and political trendsshaping the UK economy. Thescenarios, which were developedthrough desk research and

workshops were used constantly over a three year period to stimulate policydebate and inform new initiatives across government and with industry partners.They were also dramatised and presented within the centres immersive theatre a powerful approach to communication.

futurefocus has also produced scenarios on learning in the knowledge economyand on the future of communications and postal services. The DTIs strategydevelopment process now routinely employs scenario thinking.

Shell

Shell the company who famously brought scenario planning into the business

environment - has been producing Global Scenarios for more than 30 years toinform investment decisions about complex projects which are normally developedand operated over several decades.

TheShell Global Scenarios to 2025, published in 2005, describe three scenarios Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors and Flags - that examine the interplaybetween three essential forces - market incentives, the force of community, andcoercion and regulation - and provide a simple, unified contextto betterunderstand the various conditions under which we may have to operate in differentregions or in different circumstances.

In his introduction to Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Chief Executive Jeroen van

der Veer points out the imperative for Shell to use the scenarios to gain deeperinsights into our global business environment and to achieve the cultural changethat is at the heart of our Group strategy. We face real challenges in the future, wewill all need to be able to respond to changing circumstances and make informedand rigorous judgements about our decisions: these scenarios and methodologywill help us to do that better.

Greater Pollok Development Company

Greater Pollok, located five miles southwest of the Glasgow city centre is primarilyresidential, with a small economic base of several industrial and retail centres. It isa young, friendly, and civic-minded area, with a rising population and a growing

range of service groups and community initiatives but there are high levels ofunemployment as well as a high percentage of economically active aged people

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who are not working.

Greater Pollok DevelopmentCompany (GPDC) wasfounded in 2001 to help thepeople and companies ofGreater Pollok successfullycompete in the globaleconomy. GPDC nowknown as Equip - is entrustedwith promoting the areaseconomic regeneration. Itstask is to help ensure localpeople and businesses fulfilltheir potential and thatGreater Pollok is an asset to the city of Glasgow, contributing fully to its economicand social life. To that end, GPDC runs programmes and initiatives aimed at

helping local people and companies improve their current economic standing andtheir future prospects.

In 2005, the Board and senior management team of GPDC undertook a scenarioplanning exercise to inform their long term strategic plan. The exercise whichtook five days alerted them to a number of political and economic developmentswhich they had not noticed before. It allowed them to explore how their productsand services might need to change with changing economic circumstances andhas fed directly into the development of a new strategy for the company and forGreater Pollok.

Overview of the scenario process

Scenario planning is a flexible process that can be tailored to different circumstancesand different needs. While there is no definitive scenario process, most exercises fitwithin a four stage structure:

Stage 1: identification and analysis of changedrivers

Stage 2: identification of predeterminedelements and critical uncertainties

Stage 3: construction of the scenario matrix

Stage 4: construction of the scenario narratives.

Stage 1: Identification and analysis of change drivers

Change drivers are factors which are shaping the future contextual environment.Some change drivers are highly visible now, but others are less so; and while itmay be possible to determine the effects of change drivers on the present and thenear future, it can be less easy to determine their effects in the medium to longterm.

It is therefore important during this stage of the scenario process to identify abroad range of drivers and to consider which will be most important in the future

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Buoyant Labour

Market

People feel

empowered to

contribute to

society

People feel

disenfranchise

Depressed Labour

Market

Business As Usual

Armageddon

Pandoras Box

Technopunk
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rather than to focus solely on which are most important now.

Typically at this stage, therefore, drivers are prioritised according to their futureimportance to - or impact on - the policy area.

Stage 2: identification of predetermined elements and critical uncertainties

Once drivers have been prioritised, the next step is to consider how the importantones might play out in the future. In some case, drivers will be predeterminedelements that is, their outcome will be quite clear and in other cases drivers willhave uncertain outcomes. It is important during this stage of the scenario processto identify and characterise both types of outcome. For uncertain drivers, it isessential at this stage to identify the nature of the uncertainty and the range ofpossible outcomes. It is also important to explore the dynamic interplay betweendrivers over time.

The critical output from this stage is a number of axes of uncertainty whichdescribe the range of uncertainties for the future, together with the range ofpossible outcomes. The uncertainties are used to define the scenario space andto shape narrative production; predetermined elements define strategic issues thatneed to be addressed across all the scenarios

Stage 3: Construction of the scenario matrix

The scenario matrix is a 2x2 schematic that defines the main parameters of thescenarios. It is constructed by juxtaposing the two axes of uncertainty that reflectthe most important uncertainties, offer the most insight or provide the mostintriguing glimpse of the future.

Matrix construction is an art rather than a science and the final 2x2 is oftendecided through negotiation, intuition and testing.

Stage 4: Construction of the scenario narratives

The scenario narratives are constructed within the logical framework provided bythe scenario matrix. The narratives draw on all the material in stages 1 and 2 andalso on wider research. The narratives can either describe end states what theworld looks like in the future, without any sense of how that future evolved ortimelines a description of how the future has evolved from the present day. Thenarratives should present the perspectives of different stakeholders in order toprovide a sense of the different priorities and issues that exist in each future.

Wherever possible, stakeholders should be involved in testing and exploring theemerging scenario narratives.

Further information

Further information on scenario planning and other futures techniques can be found inDfTs World of Futures paper, in Foresights strategic futures planning toolkit Suggestionsfor Success and in the Strategy Survival Guide at the Prime Ministers Strategy Unit.

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The IIS scenariosAn overview of the Intelligent Infrastructure Systems scenarios

Introduction.............................................................Error: Reference source not found

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The IIS scenarios

Introduction

To help clarify some of the long term issues and to provide a context to support decisionmaking, the IIS project produced four possible scenarios that explore uncertainties aboutthe future of intelligent infrastructure systems: future scientific capabilities, technologicaldevelopments, the role of business and Government and social attitudes.

The scenarios are not an attempt to predict what will happen or to suggest what thepreferred future might be - they are stories which suggest various possible, evenextreme, outcomes. They are designed to stimulate thought, to spell out some of theopportunities and threats we might face in the future and to inform todays decisions.The full details of the scenarios can be used to judge the risks and opportunities of policyrelating tot he future management of intelligent infrastructure.

The scenario matrix

The IIS scenarios are set alongtwo axes of uncertainty.

The vertical axis Accepting ofintegrated intelligent

infrastructure Resistantto integrated intelligentinfrastructure describes socialattitudes. At one extreme, thedigital native generation, whichhas grown up using technologyand is confident that it will

continue to deliver and protect.Personal data and identity areprotected; continuousinvestment in physical and IT infrastructure allows development of systems that areflexible, adaptive and integrated. Businesses take advantage of the integrated intelligentinfrastructure to form wide-reaching networks.

At the other extreme, intelligent infrastructures are in place, but are not integrated.Terrorism, viruses, identity theft and fear of disruption and instability mean that peopleare mistrustful of intelligent systems. Economic uncertainties add to their risk aversion.People rely on legacy infrastructure or even bypass it where possible. Groups ofbusinesses, and the affluent, use private networks and services.

The horizontal axis High impact transport Low impact transport describes theconsequences of transport on the environment, economy and society. At one extreme,high levels of carbon emissions, a continuing dependence on oil, and a significant wastefootprint all contribute to high environmental impact. Social impacts - noise levels, landtake and lower social and community cohesion - are prevalent. At the other extreme,cleaner fuel technologies have reduced carbon emissions, the waste footprint hasshrunk and product longevity is emphasised because of resource constraints. The socialand community impact of faster transport, however, remains equivocal and segments ofthe community may still be excluded because of uneven access to transport.

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Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure

Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure

High ImpactTransport

Low impactTransport

Good Intentions

Urban Colonies

Perpetual Motion

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The IIS scenarios

Overview of the scenarios

The key elements of each scenario are described in the following section. Annex 1provides a summary of all four scenarios which can be printed out for workshopparticipants.

Perpetual Motion

A raft of ICT and intelligent transport developments throughout the 2010s and2020s have helped to fuel the always on society of the last fifty years. Intelligentpositioning systems, encryption technology, real-time tele-presencing and a shifttowards a low carbon economy have all played their part in driving the rampantconsumerism which shows few signs of abating.

Demand for travel and transport has remained strong in this always on world transport is now well-connected, semi-automated and (mostly) friction-free.

However, with new technologies which combine low or zero emissions withenergy vectors which ensure efficient energy capture and storage - ensuring thatenvironmental curbs on car use are unnecessary, traffic management remains acritical problem. Motor manufacturers success in developing hydrogen-fuelledvehicles has helped to meet the desire for more cars, but they are not cheap (andneither are the sustainable housing developments which also utilise hydrogenstorage of energy). Use and benefit remains as polarised as it was at the end ofthe 20th century.

Whilst technology has enabled some individuals to move out of the city centres away from the constant buzz of life this has left some urban centres vulnerable.Inhabited by the highly-stressed and affluent, but also those outside mainstream

society who survive largely by stealing, or as they put it, sharing, the identity ofothers, they have seen a rise in criminal attacks and violent behaviour. Somehave moved to the whitespaces, the remote rural areas beyond the electronicnetwork, and preach the virtues of self-sufficiency.

As a society, we are richer than ever, more than twice as affluent as we were in2005, and one consequence is that there are different attitudes to the value andpurpose of work among some. It is increasingly hard to fill jobs which involveworking anti-social hours. Even when migrants can be hired who have thelanguage skills needed in the service sector, they stay only for a few weeks or fewmonths before moving on. With fewer people needing the pay from such jobs, anda growing realisation of the social costs of such work on family life and social

relationships, many service deliverers have been forced to put in placesophisticated auto-delivery systems in order to continue to provide the levels ofservice and frequency of delivery their customers have come to expect.

Urban Colonies

Four decades after the UK decided to put clean environmental practice at the heartof economic and social policy, the country has been transformed. New housinghas been built within existing cities, on brownfield sites and through intelligent re-development, rather than through new housing on city edges and beyond.Planning rules have changed to ensure that all developments are mixed use.

One of the main aims of policy is to reduce energy consumption, and eliminatewaste. Transport is permitted if it is clean and green, but not otherwise. People

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The IIS scenarios

travel, but not as far, and often by foot or cycle. Local electric vehicles areubiquitous, and light rail schemes are common.

Materially, fewer goods are consumed than in 2005, but more services. Andpeople also value possessions which will last more than they did then, not leastbecause the tax system has been fundamentally redesigned so that people aretaxed principally on the resources they use up, rather than the money they earn orwhat they spend.

Although intelligent infrastructure is widely deployed, it is not integrated. Therehave been too many system failures, too many network crashes. Privacy has beenbreached too many times. The result is that in a world where technology systemsare treated with some suspicion, it is a source of competitive advantage if yours isself-contained, and therefore less likely to fail because of failures elsewhere. Inany case the experience of integration has not been happy; sometimes it has failedsimply because the systems are too complex for our ability human,mathematical, technical - to process them.

Globally, most economic value resides in knowledge hubs, which emphasises theimportance of attracting the best people to learn, and to work, in your city.Competition between cities is about quality of life. In this respect, Europe has donewell, developing its cultural resources and social philosophies to create citieswhich are envied everywhere. The judiciously applied migration policy, of freemovement within Europe, with a proportion of investment visas for those fromelsewhere, has helped to manage its ageing population while attracting the bestyoung talent from the countries of the South and East.

The story in rural areas is mixed. There is more agricultural work than there was inthe 20th century, and more people are employed on the land. But it is still poorly

paid, and few want to do the work. Rural areas also suffer from poorercommunications. Generally, it is expensive and inconvenient to live in thecountryside and work in the city, unless the regional government is one of the fewwhich has invested in light rail links. The new landed gentry, who have mademoney in the city and moved out, are widely disliked. The rural poor remain poorbut not very happy.

Tribal Trading

It is two generations since the Great Disruption stripped the veneer away fromcivilisation, and made us realise how thin it had been and how dependent we wereon cheap energy.

The world now is more local than it was and lifestyles have changed accordingly.People still travel, but more slowly and not so far. Work is closer to the home;indeed, in some places, living patterns have reverted to the pre-industrial, with thehome and the workplace being the same. People certainly in Europe and theUnited States are colder and hungrier than they were 50 years ago. But moreappropriate building design has compensated for some of the cold, and diet isbetter. Less energy means that there is more physical work to be done, so peopleare fitter too.

Carbon emissions have contracted, mainly because far less energy is used than inthe later 20th century, although coal is burnt again for heat and some power at

least where it can be recovered.

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The IIS scenarios

Vehicles for local use combine human power with electricity, for those who desiresuch luxury; the fastest vehicles on the road are steam powered; although thereare precious few of those, they are well-suited to the wide if battered roads whichremain from the later 20th century.

This is a world in which the energy cost of everything, goods or services, has tobe paid for. People own less than they used to, and they repair more than theyused to. Waste is minimal, not out of ideological concern but simply because it is aluxury; when things reach the end of their functional lives, they are re-used or re-cycled. People also trade less than they used to; however, they do trade the thingsthey cant make locally.

Localism also makes for diversity in political and economic systems, even if thefizzing experimentalism of the second quarter of the century has diminished assome local social systems have shown themselves to be more robust than others.But the other side of this is the recurring local conflicts over resources. As thepopulation levels have settled these conflicts have become less intense, but those

communities blessed with good local energy sources and good agriculture are stillvulnerable, even if they are also the communities most able to afford themanpower to defend their boundaries.

Good Intentions

After half a century of contention, the road wars which have dominated transportpolicy since the early part of the century finally seem to be over. The largelyunrestricted personal mobility that people enjoyed in the early years of the centuryis now a distant memory. A tough national surveillance system means that peopleonly travel if they have sufficient carbon quotas and these are increasingly tightlyrationed. Traffic volumes have shrunk hugely, and will fall further as the carbon

ration continues to be reduced.

Regions and local authorities have followed the lead of their governments and runlocal initiatives to reduce travel demand; and very few governments have opted outof the international Contraction and Convergence Agreement to reduce globalemissions. Political and economic sanctions are imposed through the UnitedNations on those rogue states which do not comply.

At a national level, much of the implementation is based on satellite surveillancewhich can monitor every car on the road, if need be. This is coupled with a carboncredits smart card which is needed by any citizen who wishes to use any kind ofcarbon resources, from having a shower to driving to eating out to listening to a

digital music system. Those who are short of credits have to buy them; those whohave changed their lifestyle sufficiently and have credits to spare, or who arefinancially poor and who have little need for travel, have prospered by selling theirexcess credits. Since the individual carbon level continues to be cut each year,there are always willing buyers, at increasingly attractive prices.

One of the biggest incentives to change behaviour and reduce carbonconsumption was the change in the tax system, which started to have a significanteffect from the early 2030s. Instead of being taxed mostly on earning andspending, as under the old income tax and VAT systems, most tax is now raisedagainst resource consumption. The EU led the way by replacing VAT with RUT (aresource use tax). The result has proved to be far more progressive, with far

greater distributional effects, than the old system ever was, and far easier topolice.

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The IIS scenarios

But despite such environmental enforcement, the scientific community remainspessimistic. Antarctica continues to shrink, and there are new stories, constantly,about carbon released into the environment as the ice retreats in the north. Thesustained unpredictability of global weather patterns continues to have huge socialand economic consequences.

The Carbon Clock is still ticking closer to doomsday, or so the scientists say.CHASM, the organisation of Concerned Humanists, Artists and Scientists forMankind, sets it every year depending on the rate of change of damage to theatmosphere. The parts per million are continuing to rise, ever closer to the criticallevels which could take us into uncharted and unpredictable climatic territory. At anews conference in Paris, the organisations global chairman announces that theclock has just ticked on to 2 minutes to midnight. The world of the cold war andnuclear threat never felt as ominous as this

Presenting the scenarios

Annex 2 contains a set of slides which provide an overview of the scenarios. Thescenarios appear in the report in a particular order Perpetual Motion, Urban Colonies,Tribal Tradingand Good Intentions and are generally presented in that order too. Afull set of slides is available from [email protected].

Annex 3 contains a set of slides that provide a broad description of scenarios and theirpurpose and which can be useful during the introduction to a workshop.

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Working with the scenariosA suite of techniques that can be used to facilitate discussions - ranging from75 minute meetings to day long workshops on the scenarios

Plausibility matrix....................................................Error: Reference source not found

Futureproofing......................................................... Error: Reference source not foundLooking for signals..................................................Error: Reference source not found

Reverse engineering...............................................Error: Reference source not found

Policy brainstorm....................................................Error: Reference source not found

The fifth scenario....................................................Error: Reference source not found

Gaming...................................................................Error: Reference source not found

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Working with the scenarios

Technique

Plausibilitymatrix

Purpose

To highlight strategicchoices or dilemmasand to identify theofficial future

Overview

A short diagnosticthat invitesparticipants to lookclosely at thescenarios anddescribe whichone(s) they favour

Participants

Any team or group

Time

90 minutes

Plausibility matrix

This is a good exercise for

getting groups talking to each other

identifying different opinions on where you are goingand where you should be going

It (almost!) never fails to reveal differences of opinion,tensions between current plans and preferred futuresand strategic dilemmas. You can use the outputs tofeed directly into other discussions or simply use theexercise to start people thinking.

The steps

1. Introduce the scenarios and present the first

scenario (Perpetual Motion).

2. Ask the group to spend 10 minutes discussing what

they like and dont like about the scenario3

3. Spend 5 minutes noting likes and dislikes on a flipchart

4. Repeat steps 1-3 for the other three scenarios

5. Draw the matrix below without the columnheadings on a flip chart. Invite the group to vote by ashow of hands. Only reveal the question as you get toeach column.

6. Consider the results and invite the group to reflect onwhat they mean for the teams activities and strategy.

3 Participants should focus on what they like and dont like about theworld described in the scenarios at this point, not on how believableor plausible the scenarios are that comes next

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MostPlausible Mostfavourable

for citizensMostfavourableforbusiness

Mostfavourablefor yourorganisation

Closest tonow Closest tothe future

youpersonallyaspire to

Closest to thefuture yourorganisationis knowinglyorunknowingly

pursuing

Closest to thefuturegovernmentpolicy isknowingly orunknowingly

creatingPerpetualMotionUrbanColoniesTribalTradingGoodIntentions


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Technique

Futureproofing

Purpose

To focus attention oncurrent and futurestrategic or policy

objectives

Overview

A diagnostic testofwhether the teamsobjectives are robustacross the range offutures representedby the scenarios

Participants

Any team or group

Time

75 minutes

Futureproofing

This is a good exercise for

helping participants to focus on team or

strategic objectives

testing the robustness of objectives

exploring when and how they might need to bemodifed

Participants explore whether objectives are robust,redundant or in need of modification. The exercise caneither be done on its own or followed by the plausibilitymatrix.

You can use the outputs to feed directly into otherdiscussions or simply use the exercise to start peoplethinking.

The steps

1. Describe scenarios and their purpose.

2. Divide participants into four groups. Give each group

a summary of4 one scenario.5

3. Ask each group to discuss the strengths andweaknesses of their scenario. Allow 15 minutes.

4. Remind participants of the team/group/strategic

objectives6. Invite each group to test the objectivesagainst their scenario. They should

a. Imagine that the world is as it is described in thescenario

b. Decide whether for this world each objectiveis

i. Robustii. Redundantiii. In need of some modification

c. Be prepared to explain why they have made theirdecision

Allow (say) 15-20 minutes

4 or the slides for

5 each group gets a different scenario, so that all three scenarios are

being worked on at the same time6 the exercise works for any level. You may need to provide ahandout or put objectives up on a slide to remind people

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5. Bring all groups back to plenary and capture theresults onthe followingmatrix:

6. Considerthe resultsand invitethe group toreflect on what they mean for the teams activities andstrategy.

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PerpetualMotion UrbanColonies TribalTrading GoodIntentions

Objective 1Objective 2Objective 3Objective 4


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Technique

Looking for signals

Purpose

To help participantsnotice some of thebroader changes

which are takingplace in society

Overview

Participants look fornewspaper cuttingsthat point towardsthe differentscenarios

Participants

Any team or group

Time

90 minutes.

Can be extended by30-45 minutes withan additionalexercise

Looking for signals

This is an good exercise for

getting groups talking to each other

getting people to look at newspapers and magazinesin a different way from usual

Participants discuss the scenarios and then look fornewspaper or magazine articles that point towards oneor another of the scenarios starting to emerge. Theyoften find this exercise quite surprising, in that they canfind articles that represent many of the trends in thescenarios.

There is also an option to extend this

exercise by 30-45 minutes by inviting peopleto discuss the relevance of some of thenewspaper clippings.

This exercise requires some advance preparation.Facilitators should bring a number of newspapersand periodicals to the event (an average of 1.5 perdelegate). They should also provide some way forparticipants to stick or glue newspaper cuttings ontoflip chart paper.

Before starting the exercise, stick 4 sheets of flip

chart paper onto the wall and draw up the scenariomatrix.

The steps

1. Introduce the scenarios and present the first

scenario (Perpetual Motion).

2. Ask the group to spend 10 minutes discussing what

they like and dont like about the scenario7

3. Spend 5 minutes noting likes and dislikes on a flip

chart4. Repeat steps 1-3 for the other three scenarios

5. Stick 4 flip chart sheets on the wall

6. Hand out the newspapers and magazines and askparticipants to

a. Look through them for articles that pointtowards any of the scenarios

b. tear the articles out

7 Participants should focus on what they like and dont like about theworld described in the scenarios at this point, not on how believableor plausible the scenarios are that comes next

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c. stick themonto the matrix in therelevant scenarioquadrant

Allow 15-20 minutes

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Technique

Reverse engineering

Purpose

To identify futurethreats andopportunities and

how to overcomethem

Overview

A post-it exercisewhere participantsuse the scenarios toidentify high impactevents that arecertain to happen inthe future.

ParticipantsAny group ofstakeholders whothe project sponsorwishes to engage inthe futures processor who they want toinfluence.

Time

3 hours

Reverse engineering

This is a useful technique for identifying events thatare certain to occur and that will have a high impacton the team or the department. It uses the

scenarios as a stimulus for discussion, but by the timeparticipant get to step 5, they no longer use them.

Typically, this exercise will yield a number of short termthreats, opportunities and issues that need to beaddressed - as well as numerous medium to long termissues to track.

The group is split into scenario teams, each of whichworks on one of the scenarios.8 You therefore needthree or four flip chart sheets pinned to the wall, or threeor four flip chart stands.

Part 1: identify and map events

1. Describe scenarios and their purpose.

2. Divide participants into four groups. Give each group

a summary of9 one scenario10

3. Ask each group to discuss the strengths andweaknesses of their scenario. Allow 15 minutes.

4. Ask everyone to think of 5 events that need to occur

if their particular scenario is to happen. They shouldwrite the events on post-its (one event per note).

5. Invite people to pair up and discuss their events11.

Allow 10-15 minutes for steps 4 and 5.

6. Each scenario group should now map the events onthe matrix shown on page 2. Set up the matrix for eachscenario group using flip chart sheets tacked to the wallor on a flip chart stand. Dont draw up the whole matrixat once; instead,

a. Draw a line down the centre of the flip chart

b. Write High impact12 at 3 oclock and Low

impact at 9 oclock

8 This exercise works best if there are at least 4 people in eachscenario team; if the group has only 10-12 people, it might be betterto split into two teams and ask each to do the exercise with twoscenarios

9 or the slides for

10 each group gets a different scenario, so that all three scenariosare being worked on at the same time11Staying within the scenario groups

12 impact on the department, your team, or a particular project.

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7. Ask the groups to discuss each event that they haveidentified and decide which side of the line it would sit ifit were to happen...

8. Once they have completed the task - in 15-20minutes, say draw up the rest of the matrix by addingthe horizontal axis and writing certain to occur at 12oclock and not certain to occur at 6 oclock13.

9. Encourage the group to explore differences ofopinion and to work towards consensus. Dont allowevents to sit on the lines!

10. Allow 20 minutes for this step.

Part 2: Identify opportunities and threats

1. Focus each group on their top right quadrant14.

These are events which are certain to occur and whichwill have a high impact. Ask the group to identify

a. whether these events are likely to occur inthe short, medium or long term

b. whether the impact is positive or negative

c. what - if any - indicators might signal that theevent is imminent

d. how the department, the team or stakeholders need to respond

2. Capture and discuss.

13 not certain to occur is not the same as certain to not occur14You can split each scenario group into two at this point and have

them work in parallel on top and bottom right quadrants

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Not certain to occur

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3. Focus the group onthe bottom rightquadrant and identify

a. whether theuncertainty ishigh,medium orlow

b. whether theimpact - if they dooccur willbe positiveor negative

c. whether the

department,the team orstakeholdersare preparedif the eventdoes occur

d. whatindicatorsyou shouldtrack tomonitorwhether theevent isgoing tooccur

4. Capture and discuss.

5. The output fromthese exercises can beused to inform strategicplanning or to set anagenda for operationalactivities designed to

capture opportunitiesand mitigate threats.

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Technique

Policy Brainstorm

Purpose

To use the scenariosas a stimulus for

identifying newpolicy ideas

Overview

A brainstormingsession

Participants

Those responsiblefor strategy andpolicy. Useful toinclude external

stakeholders.

12-15 is ideal.

Time

3 hours

Policy brainstorm

The policy brainstorm exercise is useful for teams whocannot commit a day to working with the scenarios butwho want to use the scenarios to stimulate thinkingabout new policy development.

The workshop is used to generate as many new ideasas possible teams will need to consider the ideasfurther at a later date.

Agenda

Time Activity

9.30 Introduction

Describe purpose and agenda

Brief introduction to scenarios

9.45 Presentation: Perpetual Motion and UrbanColonies15

10.00 Discussion:

Split into two breakout groups

What do you like about your scenario? Not

like? Assume that you are living in your scenario

and that you have been asked to makerecommendations to the Secretary of Statefor Transport on government policy. Identify

o no brainers16

o creative recommendations

o heroic recommendations

10.25 Feedback

Capture feedback from the PerpetualMotion group first.

Write the ideas on flip charts dont allowcritiquing

Once all the ideas have been captured,

15

Hand out copies of the scenario slides and/or summaries16 No brainers are obvious policy recommendations (obvious to statebut not necessarily easy to achieve)

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open up the brainstorm to everyone andcapture additional ideas

Repeat for

Time Activity

10.45 Coffee

11.00 Presentation: Tribal Tradingand GoodIntentions

11.15 Discussion:

Split into two breakout groups

What do you like about your scenario? Notlike?

Assume that you are living in your scenarioand that you have been asked to makerecommendations to the Secretary of State forTransport on government policy. Identify

o no brainers17

o creative recommendations

o heroic recommendations

11.25 Feedback

Capture feedback from the Tribal Trading

group first.

Write the ideas on flip charts dont allowcritiquing

Once all the ideas have been captured,open up the brainstorm to everyone and captureadditional ideas

Repeat forGood Intentions

11.40 Review

What policies appear across all futures?

What policies appear in only one future?

Are there other policy issues that thescenarios suggest?

12.15 Close

17 No brainers are obvious policy recommendations (obvious to statebut not necessarily easy to achieve)

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Technique

The fifth scenario

Purpose

To build a fifthscenario thatdescribes a shared

strategic vision

Overview

A long half dayworkshop whereparticipants useelements from a setof four scenarios todescribe theirpreferred future and the stepsrequired to deliver it.

Participants

Those responsiblefor strategy andpolicy. Useful toinclude externalstakeholders.

12-15 is ideal.

Time

9.45am-4.30pm

The fifth scenario

The purpose of describing a fifth scenario is tobuild a preferred future or vision that draws onthe content from an existing set of four scenarios.The approach allows policy makers to present acustomised scenario in which they have taken action tominimise threats and maximise opportunities.

Process overview

1. Agree the policy or operational area that the fifthscenario is being built around. This is normally done inadvance of the workshop.

2. Present and discuss the scenarios.

3. Use the plausibility matrix to identify which scenario

is closest to the future the group aspires to.

4. Describe a fifth scenario that improves on thisscenario by

a. building on its strengths

b. overcoming its weaknesses

c. drawing on positive elements from other scenarios

5. Agree the steps and tasks needed to deliver the fifthscenario.

Participants are split into two groups for step 2, each ofwhich works with two of the four scenarios. Groups workin parallel.

There is a detailed agenda on page 2. The process issupported by three task sheets (fifth scenario task sheet1,fifth scenario task sheet 2and fifth scenario task sheet3).

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Agenda

Time Activity 9.45 Introduction

Describe purpose and agenda

Confirm the policy area being discussed

Brief introduction to scenarios

10.10 Presentation: Perpetual Motion and Urban Colonies18

10.25 Discussion:

Split into two breakout groups19

What do you like about your scenario? Not like?

SWOT analysis for the policy area

Key challenges and issues for the policy area in the scenario

10.45 Feedback

11.10 Coffee

11.30 Presentation: Tribal Tradingand Good Intentions

11.45 Discussion:

Split into two breakout groups20

What do you like about your scenario? Not like?

SWOT analysis for the policy area

Key challenges and issues for the policy area in the scenario

12.10 Feedback

12.30 Plausibility matrix

Map plausibility and favourability21

Discuss the findings

18 Hand out copies of the scenario slides and/or summaries

19 Record the discussion on Fifth Scenario task sheet 1


21 See Plausibility Matrix

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Agree which scenario most closely describes the groups preferredfuture

1.00 Lunch

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Time Activity

1.30 Review

Present the preferred scenario again

Ensure everyone has copies of the scenario slides/summary

Share out photocopies of the appropriate task sheet as filled in duringthe morning

1.45 Describing the fifth scenario

Group brainstorm

Which parts of the preferred scenario must happen in the future

Which parts of the preferred scenario must not happen in the

future Which parts of the other scenarios would you like to happen?

2.15 Creating the fifth scenario

Form three breakout groups22

Group 1 identify and map on a timeline - the 10 key steps or eventsrequired to ensure that the must happens occur

Group 2 identify and map on a timeline - the 10 key steps or eventsrequired to ensure that the must not happens do not occur

Group 3 identify and map on a timeline - the 10 key steps or eventsrequired to ensure that the would likes occur

2.45 Feedback

3.15 Coffee

3.30 Next steps

Form three new breakout groups23

Group 1: Who is responsible for the must happens? What must they

do now? Who should be involved?

Group 2: Who is responsible for the must not happens? What mustthey do now? Who should be involved?

Group 3: Who is responsible for the would like to happens? Whatmust they do now? Who should be involved?

4.00 Feedback

4.20 Review


23 Record the discussion onFifth Scenario task sheet 3

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4.30 Close

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Technique

Gaming

Purpose

To build a fifthscenario that

describes a sharedstrategic vision

Overview

A role playexercise whereparticipantsconsider howstakeholdersmight createsuccess in thefuture

Participants

Any.

Time

Full day

Gaming

Gaming workshops offer a rich perspective on thepolicy challenges facing government and otheractors. The outputs from gaming workshopsgenerally highlight a number of significant policy challengesand risk issues that need to be addressed in the near future.

Process overview

The gaming approach is a method which replicatesthe discussions used to generate the scenarios. Following apresentation of each scenario, participants

1. carry out a SWOT analysis of the first scenario from theperspective of one of (say) three stakeholders(government, citizens, industry are all suitable

candidates);

2. use the SWOT discussion to determine the extent towhich each stakeholder likes living and working in thescenario and identify what they want government or themarket to do in order to maintain or improve their level ofsatisfaction;

3. step out of role and - imagining that the scenario is anaccurate representation of the future make a numberof recommendations for current policy. Theserecommendations should re-inforce the elements of thescenario which participants believe to be beneficial to

the UK and should address those elements which arelikely to be less beneficial;

4. repeat steps 1-3 for the other three scenarios;

5. compare the results of the different scenario discussionsto identify robust policy challenges (ones which appearacross all or most of the scenarios) and scenario specificchallenges;

6. carry out if required - a plausibility and favourabilityvote and explore what the results mean for future policyactivity.

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Agenda

Time Activity

9.30 Welcome, introduction and purpose

9.40 Presentation: introduction to scenarios

9.50 Presentation: Perpetual Motion

10.00 Discussion:

Split into three breakout groups, each representing one stakeholder:government, business or citizens24

Each group discuss what the scenario is like for their stakeholder bycarrying out a SWOT analysis from the stakeholders perspective

What are the main issues you want government to tackle on yourbehalf25

Stepping out of role and imagining that the scenario is an accuraterepresentation of the future what recommendations would you like tomake on strategy or policy?

10.45 Feedback

11.15 Coffee

11.40 Presentation: Urban Colonies

11.50 Discussion:

Split into three breakout groups, each representing one stakeholder:government, business or citizens

Each group discuss what the scenario is like for their stakeholder bycarrying out a SWOT analysis from the stakeholders perspective


Stepping out of role and imagining that the scenario is an accuraterepresentation of the future what recommendations would you like tomake on strategy or policy?

12.30 Feedback

1.00 Lunch

24 Where possible, ask workshop participants to role play a different stakeholder to themselves

25 The government group should identify the main challenges facing them


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Time Activity

1.40 Presentation: Tribal Tradingand Good Intentions

2.00 Discussion:

Split into two breakout groups, each focussing on one scenario

Within each breakout group, participants should organise themselvesinto government, business or citizens roles

Each sub group discuss what the scenario is like for their stakeholderby carrying out a SWOT analysis from the stakeholders perspective


Stepping out of role and imagining that the scenario is an accurate

representation of the future what recommendations would you like tomake on strategy or policy?

2.45 Feedback

3.30 Coffee

3.45 Plenary Discussion

Run thePlausibility Matrix and discuss the outcomes

What are the robust policy or strategy options that need to be tackled

across all futures? What are the risks to government (or your organisation) that need to

be managed in pursuing these options?

4.30 Review

4.45 Close


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Using scenario techniquesA suite of scenario and futures processes - ranging from 75 minute meetingsto day long workshops that may help general strategic discussions

STEEP Analysis......................................................Error: Reference source not found

Visioning.................................................................Error: Reference source not found

Issue Trees.............................................................Error: Reference source not found

Predetermined elements and critical uncertainties. .Error: Reference source not found

Stakeholder analysis...............................................Error: Reference source not found

Creating Scenarios.................................................Error: Reference source not found

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Using scenario techniques

Technique

STEEP Analysis

Purpose

To help participantsbegin thinking andtalking strategically

Overview

Brainstorming andclustering exerciseon post-its

Participants

Any team or group

Time

75-90 minutes.

STEEP Analysis

STEEP analysis is a good technique for

structuring a brainstorm session at the start of astrategy or futures exercise;

helping groups to focus on what is driving change inthe external environment.

The approach is based on the 3 circles model-developed by Colin Eden and Kees van der Heijden atthe University of Strathclyde - which describes threeaspects of an organisations business environment:

the internal organisational environment, where

decision making is largely focussed on operationalissues and resource management;

the external transactional environment, where an

organisations customers, competitors, suppliers andexternal stakeholders sit. Their behaviours andchoices shape the transactional environment andchallenge theorganisation torespond. Whendecision makersanalyse what ishappening in thisenvironment,

however, theygenerally look atthe recent past,the present and(at best) the nearfuture in orderto make shortterm reactivedecisionsdesigned to optimise short term performance;

the wider contextual environment. Trends and

events in the contextual environment are not bydefinition of immediate relevance to theorganisation. These trends (drivers) are, however,shaping development of consumer and competitorbehaviour in the transactional environment.

Typically, drivers are categorised as Societal,Technological, Environmental, Economic andPolitical.

The purpose of STEEP analysis is to look at thecontextual environment, to characterise the drivers that

are operating and then consider what if any effectthey might have on the organisations future activities.

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Transactional EnvironmentTransactional Environment

organisational

environment

Contextual EnvironmentContextual Environment

Driving Forces

Driving ForcesTechnological

Economic

Environmental

Political

Societal

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The steps

a. Invite participants to work in twos or threes

b. Discuss what is driving change (introduce the

STEEP concept)

c. After 5-10 minutes, invite participants individually towrite (say) 5 drivers on post-it notes

d. In twos and threes again, ask participants to clusterthe post-its

e. Identify the name of each cluster

f. Identify the pivotal or most significant/high impactdriver in each cluster

g. Discuss the likely impact and implications of the

cluster on your activities

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Technique

Visioning

Purpose

To define a commonvision and purpose

Overview

A series of questionswhich bring pertinentissues to the fore

Participants

A team or group whohave to worktogether on acommon purpose.With or without afacilitator.

Time

60-90 minutes.

Visioning

Visioning is a good exercise for

getting groups to focus on what success lookslike

diagnosing how close the organisations is to thegroups ideal

setting an agenda for forward action

Participants use a number of questions to describe afuture where the organisation is highly successful thenidentify how the current reality need to change toensure success.

Step 1: The future

Imagine it is five years from today. Your team hassuccessfully created the organisationyou most want tocreate. Your task in this session, as a team, is todescribe what it looks like as if you could see it aroundyou.

Use the following questions as triggers give everyonethe opportunity to contribute and capture theconversation on flip charts. Try and speak in the presenttense it will help you to imagine you are in the future.

1. Who are our stakeholders? How do we work withthem? How do we create value for them?

2. What are the major socio-economic trends that areinfluencing what we do?

3. How are we perceived by our customers andstakeholders?

4. How do we add value/generate income?

5. What kind of people work here? Why do theychoose to work for us?

6. What kind of leaders and decision makingprocesses do we have?

7. How do we manage the good times?

8. How do we handle difficult times?

9. What are our values? How do people treat eachother?

10. How do we reward people?

11. How do we measure progress and success?

12. How does the organisation learn from its successesand failures?

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Step 2: Current reality

Now come back to the present day and explore a relatedset of questions:

1. How close are we to our vision?

2. What aspects of our organisation and our systemsdo we need to change to achieve the vision?

3. Is our peoples experience of change positive ornegative? How do we manage the change processto ensure they come with us?

4. What do we need to do now to get started?

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Technique

Issue Trees

Purpose

To identify the highlevel questions andissues in a futures

project

Overview

A structuredconversationalprocess thatdeepensunderstanding of theissues surrounding afutures project

Participants

Best done with topicexperts and externalstakeholders, butcan be carried out bya project team on itsown.

Time

1-3 hours

Issue Trees

This technique is a good one to use

at the start of a project when thinking through the

overarching question that the project is attempting toanswer

to deepen your understanding of the issues involved

The key to building a successful issues tree is toconstantly ask questions and to keep adding layers untilthe group believes it has built a fully comprehensive tree.

There is an example of an issue tree (developed at thestart of the IIS project) on page 2.

The process

1. Write an opening question that relates to theprojects aims.

2. Move onto the next layer (layer 2) and set out thekey questions that need to be answered in order toanswer the opening question (layer 1)

3. Repeat stage 2 for each of the questions in layer 2.

and so on until you feel you asked the fundamentalquestions at the heart of the project. You can now usethe issue tree to organize the project work.

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