Nile Basin Focal Project-Intervention Analysis

07/11/2008, Addis AbabaSupported by: CPWF

WP5: Interventions Analysis

Seleshi Bekele Awulachew

Nile Basin Focal ProjectDevelopment of Work plans


Content

1. Objectives

2. Key Issues and Research Questions

3. Expected Outputs

4. Methodology

5. Preliminary Results

6. Expected Outcomes


1. Objectives

• To understand interventions that can have greater impacts in the Nile Basin

• Specific objectives are to:– inventory and characterize various existing interventions in

relation to production systems and space

– document success and failures of interventions and map intervention types

– undertake detail performance analysis of existing interventions and their impacts through quantitative and qualitative analysis and recommend best bet interventions and implementation mechanisms

– undertake tradeoff analysis, ranking and modeling to select and evaluate high impact interventions and implementation strategy

– Develop problem tree & impact pathways through interventions


2. Key Issues: The Basin is highly variable,

the river is very important, various interventions


2. Key Research Questions

• What are the existing water related interventions in the basin under various production systems?

• Which interventions have succeeded and which ones failed?

• What are the technical, economic, institutional setups for successful or failed interventions under various systems?

• Which future interventions are required to bring high impact on poverty, water availability, access and productivity for various target groups?

Note: All questions may not be answered but will lead to future work


3. Expected Outputs

1: Literature Review & Assembly of Knowledge Reporti) Inventory & on desk characterization

ii) Ongoing and planned interventions by respective countries and regional organs (Master plans, SVP, SAPs)

iii) Intervention types under various production systems, sub-basins (past/existing, under implementation, future)

iv) Success and failures stories and causes

v) Intervention scales and up-scaling possibilities

vi) Short list of interventions through stakeholders consultation

vii) Report of literature review, long and short list of interventions

2: Detailed Assessments Reporti. Map of intervention types by production & hydronomic zones - GIS based map

ii. Design tools for evaluation of performance at selected sites & systems: PRA, questionnaires, interviews

iii. Evaluate performances of interventions

iv. Intermediate report on performance of interventions- -RR

v. Adopted model/s for evaluating quantitative and qualitative impacts of interventions- model setup

vi. Identify potential adoption sites using GIS and product of other WPs

vii. Special study report on recommendations of suits of interventions, necessary mechanisms and implications – RR and article/s

3: Assessment of High Potential Interventions Reporti. Generate high impact scenarios

ii. Select/develop model for scenario analysis

iii. Evaluate high potential interventions and their impacts (water availability, SE and environmental) through tradeoffs analysis (large versus small, HP vs agriculture, single vs multi-purpose, 9), response to new market opportunities (virtual water, power trade, ..) through MCA, ranking and modeling eg Watersim

iv. Validate the high potential interventions through stakeholders consultation

v. Report on high potential interventions

4: Problem Tree and Impact Pathway Report (Used as a means of thinking, implementing,

monitoring and analyzing the impact of the project)

– Implementing group discuss and identify problem tree (cause-effect) and impact pathways

– Problem tree and impact pathway is developed for the project

– The impact pathway is validated by stakeholders

– The impact pathway document used by the project


4. Methodology: Inter-linkages of WPs

Potential

intervention

WP1: Poverty

AnalysisWP2: Hydrology

Water Accounting

Spatially

disaggregated

water balance

WP3: Water

Productivity

WP4: Institutions

Farming

systems

Water use

systems

Spatial

dissagreg

ation

Economic

evaluations

Factors of

productivity: land,

water, 9

WP5: Intervention

Analysis

WP6: Knowledge Management


4. Methodology: Analysis

• Identify and map existing

intervention

• develop comprehensive list of interventions

• map interventions

• superimpose maps

• short list of interventions

• Design tools, evaluate performances, identify best interventions, develop scenarios, and evaluate

• indices, PRA, questioners, data collections

• evaluate performance

• validate scenarios-consultations

• tools for scenario analysis

• Define feasible options; evaluate potential impacts

• impact on water budget, productivity, socio-

economics and institutions;

• tradeoff results and impacts


5. Preliminary Results: Scales of Interventions

• Hydronomic Zones

• 5 specific detail case study sites

– Ethiopian Highlands

– Victoria Nile

– The Sudd

– Gezirra

– Delta

• One integrated basin wide analysis


The Detail Case Study Sites

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

%[

Sio

Yala

Vict oria N

il e

Ruvuvu

Kagera

Mara

Sondu

S imyu

Aswa

Nya borongo

Albe rt N ile

Nzoia

Dima

Semiliki

Kafu

Katon ga

Muzizi

Jin ja

Kamdini

Pakw achPanyango

Mbu lam uti

Laropi

Masindi Port

Kasenyi

Bweram ule

KatweKazing a ChannelIsh ango

Ngamba

L. Victor ia

L. AlbertL. Kyoga

L. Edward

L. Kivu

L. Tangany ika

L. George

%[

#Y

Namasagali

Murc hision F a lls

Monga lla

Owen Falls Dam

Paraa

Bugondo

But iabaBunia

Nimule

Kisumu

Musom a

Bukoba

Mwanza

Kampa la

Enteb be

Fort Porta l

Kigali

D R C

S U D A �

#Y Discharge S tations

%[ Towns


Aggregated Basin


5. Preliminary Results: Categorization of

Interventions

• Product/production system based – Crop Based: Field Crops, Horticulture, Forestry/ agro-Forestry9

– Animal based: Livestock, Fisheries/Aquaculture

• Farming system based– Rain fed, irrigation, mixed crop-livestock, etc

• Physical based– Infrastructural interventions

– Water and land based interventions: eg watershed management

• Socio-economic based– Agricultural based – Ag trade, virtual water

– Hydropower-interconnection

– Industrial

• Institutional and policy based– Institutional innovations; basin, sub-basin institutions

– Benefit/water-sharing


Example: Production System and Interventions

• Hydronomic profiles

• Production system


Infrastructural Interventions

• Control and Management of Natural Lakes (2)

• Large Dams/Reservoirs and Diversions (15)

• Small dams

• Ground Water Storage and Recharge

• Non-Conventional Water Sources Technologies


River Schematization, Flow and Interventions

Lake Tana

3,8093,920

Bosheilo

2,072Welaka

4,798Jemma

4,389

North Gojam

2,440Muger

2,187

Guder

1,719

Finchaa

5,012

South Gojam

2,355Anger

5,673

Didessa

3,874

Wonbera

Flow gauging station

Reservoir

6,246

Dabus

4,345

Beles

2,797 Dinder

1,102 Rahad

Khartoum

Border

Roseires

Sennar

Kessie

Outlet Lake Tana

Giwasi

Hawata

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

4,345Mean annual

discharge (Mm3)


Future Interventions


Capacity Building

• Tewdros : Water Resources Allocation of the Nile River Basin: A cooperative Game Theoretic Approach– Integrated economic-hydrologic-institutional modeling at the River Basin Scale

• George: Developing Optimal Economic Incentives for Managing Transboundary Water Externalities in the Blue Nile River Basin – Application of economic instruments to review the past and present

legal documents on the Blue Nile and treaties governing the entire Nile River Basin

– Modeling optimal allocation of water for maximizing use benefits among the countries established

• Binyam: Equitable Distribution of Benefits in Transboundary Waters

• 6 M.Sc. students


6. Expected Outcomes

Output 1��Interventions from Basin and International experience are compiled, made available and referred/used

Output 2�Highly performing interventions are promoted

Output 3� Development partners integrate high impact interventions scenarios in their investments

Output 4�� Used as a means to design, implement, monitor and create impact through the project

Education

Nile Basin Focal Project-Intervention Analysis