Nile Hydropolitics in the Nile Basin - Aalto University

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  • 1.HYDROPOLITICSIN THE NILE BASIN Ana Elisa Casco Stockholm International Water Institute Lecture at Aalto University Helsinki - Finland 7 November 2011

2. The River(s) Contribitution to Nile flows Annual (average) Floodperiod (average) Eastern Nile Basins (from Ethiopia) Blue Nile 59% 68% Tekezze/ Atbara 14% 5% Baro-Akobo/ Sobat 13% 22% Total Ethiopia 86% 96% Equatorial Nile Basin White Nile 14% 5% 3. The Hydrology The Topography Blue Nile source White Nile source Ethio-Sudan border Egypts territory 4. The land/waterscapes Egypt 5. The land/waterscapes North Sudan Southern Sudan 6. The land/waterscapes Ethiopia 7. Lake Victoria The land/waterscapes Uganda Kenya Tanzania Rwanda Burundi D.R. Congo 8. TheWateravailability/utilisation 84 bcm / average Little utilisation Little utilisation How much water are Egypt and Sudan utilising? 9. The 1959 Agreement Water allocations defined by the1959 Agreeement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters Current water utilisation of the Nile waters ? 10. The storage capacity 11. The riparians 12. EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIA +Equatorial states Geography Geography Geography Materialpower Materialpower Materialpower Bargainingpower Bargainingpower Bargainingpower Ideational power Ideational power Ideational power Power asymmetries 13. The enduring conflict Control Contribution Utilisation DonwstreamUpstream Allocation 14. Equitableutilisation Development Benefits-Sharing Towards Cooperation DonwstreamUpstream 15. Hydropolitics Past Since mid-1990s (HYDROPOLITICAL) REGIONAL SECURITY COOPERATION: Development opportunities Basin-wide approach Investment projects Legal negotiations Donors support CONFLICT: Asymmetric water-sharing / utilisation Non-inclusive water agreements (contested)Uneven water developments Securitisated hydropolitics 16. The cooperation process since1999 1997-2007 2012!? 17. The Two-Track process


18. Nile Basin Initiative GOAL Benefit-Sharing Paradigm 19. NBI Operational Structure 20. NBI philosophy 21. NBI Programs 22. NBI Donors 23. The legal negotiations New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric allocations Prior use Acquired rights Prior Notification New water No-harm Principle River Basin Organisation STATUS QUO New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric allocations New uses Acquired rights Prior Notification Investment Equitable and reasonable utilisation Principle River Basin Organisation STATUS QUO ? DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANS 24. 2007-2010:The deadlockNILE COOPERATIVEFRAMEWORK AGREEMENT [...] Article 14b:(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree,in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensurethat all states achieve and sustain water securityandnot tosignificantlyaffect the water security of any other Nile Basin State ."Egypt/Sudan proposal: (...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree,in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensurethat all states achieve and sustain water securityandnot toadverselyaffect the water securityand current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State. [...] No water allocations included in the agreement 25. 2010: The big challenge! POTENTIAL Collective bargaining power Challenge/Pressure Balance of power Changes in the status quo Framework for equitable utilisation (institutionalisation) LIMITS Agreement without Egypt? Implementation challenges Egypts response Geopolitics Donors behaviour Access to investment 26. Future scenarios (as per 2009) Scenario 1 Scenario2 Scenario3 Scenario4 27. Meanwhile... 28. Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011 Changingrealpolitik :new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ... Land grabbing:Growing economicinterest for Nile naturalresources Regional integration: Towards economic multilaterismUnilateralism: Unilateral hydraulic development 29. Hydropolitics pre-2011 Official dyadUpstreamBloc 30. 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin 31. More tomorrow... [email_address]