Nile Basin Initiatives (NBI)Nile Basin Initiatives (NBI)Easter Nile Technical Regional Office Easter Nile Technical Regional Office

(ENTRO)(ENTRO)

Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW-I)

Flood Forecasting in EN Region

Flood Forecasting in EN RegionFlood Forecasting in EN Region

�Through the FPEW I project New National Flood Forecasting Centeris established in Ethiopia and strengthened in Sudan and Egypt. Regional Flood Coordination Unit is established in ENTRO

�Capacity building training in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)using Eta and MM5 models conducted

�Development and calibration of Flood Forecasting Model using HECmodels (HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, etc.) in Ethiopia and Sudan (A.A. & Khartoum Universities)

�Flood Risk Mapping & Community Flood Preparedness Action Plans for Pilot areas

�Enhancing satellite precipitation estimate and hydrological models in Egypt

�Two annual flood forums are conducted in Khartoum, and Cairo thethird is planned for January 2010 in Ethiopia

2Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)

Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response Response (cont(cont’’d)d)

� Flood Prone Areas – Pilot areas

3Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)

Ethiopia Sudan

Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency ResponseResponse

� HEC-RAS / HEC-GeoRAS model development and calibration procedure

4Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)

Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency ResponseResponse

� Plan view of the extent of flooding for the Gumara and Ribb Rivers for the 100 year flow

5

Key IssuesKey Issues

6Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW I)

� Lack of good quality hydrological (flow) data for model calibration in Ethiopia and Sudan

� Establishing and operating real time gauging stations

� Data Communication system & data sharing between agencies & countries

� Very short lead time (in hours) in Ethiopia

� Lack of capacity to predict short period rainfall data (NWP); (NMA still trying to verify results from Eta and MM5 models)

� Institution and Staff capacity building in flood forecasting & hydrological models

� Sustainability of flood forecasting systems (e.g. Sudan FEWS)