Yellow River Basin Focal Project: Intervention Analysis

WP 5 -- Intervention Analysis

Identification and Implementation of

High-Impact Interventions—Use of

modeling tools

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Outline

� WP5—Yellow River Basin

� Tools to support WP5 type analyses

• Global water and food projection tools

• Basin models


WORK PACKAGESWP5: Intervention Analysis

� Research Activities:

• Literature review on previous, current, and

proposed interventions in the YRB

• Identification and assessment of high potential

interventions for increasing water productivity

and alleviating poverty

• Stakeholder insights from upper, middle, and

lower basin

� WP5 Leaders: Xue Yunpeng and Claudia

Ringler with support from everyone else

Yellow River Basin WP5

Implementation Process

WP0 Phase I

• Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour

• Project Design

• Conceptual Framework

• Development of Tools & Methods

WP1 Water

Poverty

Mapping &

Analysis

Ranking of

alternative

Scenario

outcomes to

determine

High Potential

Interventions

WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation

Platform

WP2 Water

Availability

and Access

WP3 Water Productivity

Analysis – Basin Model

WP4 Institutional Analysis

ST

AK

EH

OL

DE

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UE

WP

5S

CE

NA

RIO

AN

AL

YS

IS

-Alte

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e in

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en

tion

s, im

pacts

, an

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-

SHARED VISION MODELING

Phase II

WP0 Phase I

• Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour

• Project Design

• Conceptual Framework

• Development of Tools & Methods

WP1 Water

Poverty

Mapping &

Analysis

Ranking of

alternative

Scenario

outcomes to

determine

High Potential

Interventions

WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation

Platform

WP2 Water

Availability

and Access

WP3 Water Productivity

Analysis – Basin Model

WP4 Institutional Analysis

ST

AK

EH

OL

DE

R D

IAL

OG

UE

WP

5S

CE

NA

RIO

AN

AL

YS

IS

-Alte

rnativ

e in

terv

en

tion

s, im

pacts

, an

d C

BA

-

SHARED VISION MODELING

Phase II


What is a Shared Vision Model?

A “Shared Vision” model is a

collective view of a water resources

system jointly developed by

modelers, managers and

stakeholders. It is used to facilitate

plan development, implementation

and maintenance


Perceived Advantages of

Shared Vision Models

Shared Vision Models

� Improve analysis

� Are more flexible

� Communicate more effectively

� Cost less to develop than traditional

approaches


Modeling Philosophy

Shared Vision Models should

� Be developed with wide support

� Improve communication among

managers and stakeholders

� Disseminate information equally

� Improve planning and

management of water

resources

� Serve as a basis for effective

negotiation

Gain Stakeholder Endorsement

Structure Modeling Process

Overview of

Model Development Process

Define Objectives

Conceptualize System

Construct Model

Test &Validate Model

Establish Ongoing Role For Model

Enhance/Modify Model

MODELING TOOLS IN SUPPORT

OF INTERVENTION ANALYSIS

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10

Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2000-

2050


Calorie availability, key riparian countries

(calories per capita per day)

-5000

5001000150020002500300035004000

Eth

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ia

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mb

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bw

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an

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ua

do

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uth

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a

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ina

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yp

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2000 2000-2050


Irrigation water supply reliability is decliningIrrigation water supply reliability is declining

Increasing Irrigation Water

Scarcity

Note: Irrigation Water Supply Reliability is defined as the ratiNote: Irrigation Water Supply Reliability is defined as the ratio of actual o of actual

irrigation water consumption to potential irrigation water consuirrigation water consumption to potential irrigation water consumption.mption.

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Chin

aO

ther E

AP

India

O

ther S

A

SSA

LAC

ME

NA

Dev

elopi

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evelo

ped

2000

2050


Irrigated and rainfed harvested area,

Ganges basin (million hectares)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2030 2050

Rainfed

Irrigated



Mekong basin (million hectares)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2030 2050

Rainfed

Irrigated


Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Nile

basin (million hectares)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2030 2050

Rainfed

Irrigated


Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Volta

basin (million hectares)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2030 2050

Rainfed

Irrigated



Limpopo basin (million hectares)

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2030 2050

Rainfed

Irrigated


Sources of Cereal Production

Growth, Baseline, 2000-2050

Page 18


Net cereal trade (million mt)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

EAP SA SSA LAC MENA HIC ECA

2000

2030

2050


Changes of Annual Precipitation by 2030 (%)

(HadCM3)


Changes of Annual Potential ET by 2030 (%)

(HadCM3)


Changes of Annual Runoff by 2030 (%)

(HadCM3)


Irrigation Water Supply ReliabilityIMPACT Model Projections

Selected Insights

� Basins span a good range for presented indicators, including average rainfall, water availability per capita, population density, and irrigation development

� Urbanization important for all basins, but in several basins urban centers are outside the basin area (Andean, Volta, Mekong, Limpopo)

� Climate change is a threat in all basins, but is expected to play out in different ways

� Maize is an important crop in all river basins

� Non-irrigation water demand increases faster than irrigation demand

Selected Insights

� Under baseline, childhood malnutrition largest in the

Ganges, generally declining in Asian basins, but

increasing in African basins before declining

� Yield growth is expected to contribute most to future

productivity growth in river basins; only in African

basins will area expansion still play an important role

as well; in Asian basins, area is expected to slightly

contract

� Rainfed production dominates African basins—95% in

the region, 99% in the Volta

� Rainfed crop yields in African basins generally lower

compared to Asian basins (because of better rainfall

and better access to other inputs); however, yields are

also low in the Ganges

Selected Insights

� Developing countries account for almost all of future income growth and increase in food demand, including livestock demand

� Coupled with growing resource scarcity on the supply side [water, land, climate-related, energy], developing countries and basins will need to increasingly rely on net food imports

� Increasing food prices as a result of scarcity on the supply side and rapid growth on the demand side [food, & non-food] reduce access to food and increase childhood malnutrition among the poorest populations in many African and selected Asian countries [particularly those who spend > 50% of income on food]

Quantity

Quality

Agr

Env

Ind Dom

CHANGE

- Technologies

- Environment

ENVIRONMENT

- social

- legal

- political

- institutional

ENVIRONMENT

- physical

- technical

- economic

GROWTH

- Economy

- Population

- Urbanization

MOTIVATION MOTIVATION –– Increased Competition for WaterIncreased Competition for Water

Ocean

River Basin Boundary

Irrigation

Navigation

An Example of a Typical River BasinJ

Jthere is a need to understand how one

use/r affects other uses and usersJ

IndustryUrba

n

WSS

Precipitation

Recreation

HydropowerFishing

Rainfed Agr

Livestock

Forest

Rura

l

WSS

Irrigation

Groundwater

Infiltration / Recharge

Base Flow / Pumping

Groundwater Inflow

Groundwater Outflow

Runoff

Evaporation / Transpiration

Return Flow

Community

Use

Wetlands / Environment

Reservoir

Figure based on Rao 2005

• Hydrologic simulation models are important for

real-time operation of dams & river systems

• Economic optimization models are important for

investment calculations

• Optimization in simulation models is generally of

limited use for water allocation based on economic

efficiency purposes

• Economic models without sufficient hydrologic

representation are also of limited use

• Joint hydrologic-economic models can be used for

strategic decision-making in river basins

TYPES OF RIVER BASIN MODELS

Water Resources Management

Hydrology

Water

Demand

Physical

Water

Resources

Social

Environment

Solutions

Control (Hard) Technology Adaptive (Soft) Technology

Geography

Geology

Climatology

Meteorology

Ecology

II.

Politics

Economics

Sociology

Law

Institutions

I..

Water

Supply

Flood

Control

Hydro

Power... Fees

Taxes

Water

Rights

Subsi-

dies...

FeedbacksSource: Klemes, 1999

Basin (sub-basin) authority

Administrative units

(states or provinces,

counties or cities)

Irrigation

districts

Urban areas

Farms

National or

Regional agencies

National or regional policies on water

and economic development

Basin policieson multiple

purposes of water use, water supply,

hydropower, environmental

and ecological requirements,

water quality, flooding control,

capacity expansion and O&M

Inter-regional agreements on

water allocation and water trade

Inter-sectoral water allocation,

water right and markets,

water prices and O&M cost,

water use agreements,

On-farm water management

POLICY ANALYSIS AT THE BASIN LEVELPOLICY ANALYSIS AT THE BASIN LEVEL

CONCLUSIONS

• Effects of policies and

developments in one part of the

basin for the entire basin can be

analyzed

• Impacts of non-water and non-

irrigation water policies on the

basin can be examined

MODEL CHALLENGES

� Can be data-intensive to adequately model human

behavior

� Difficult, but not impossible to link water uses to

poverty outcomes

� Focus on productive water uses manipulated by

humans, and less on rainfed water management

[where a lot of poverty persists], but the latter can

be represented if it rainfed agriculture results in

changes in inflows

� Difficult but feasible to link to land cover models

� Stakeholder input is essential

� Long-term models needed to assess dynamics and

cumulative environmental impacts

Education

Yellow River Basin Focal Project: Intervention Analysis