MRV in REDD+: Deforestation and Forest Degradation Drivers

Louis Verchot, Noriko Hosonuma, Veronique De Sy, Martin Herold, Ruth De Fries, Maria Brockhaus, Arild Angelsen, Erika Romijn

Importance of monitoring drivers

• Essential for REDD+ strategy and policy design

• Link to policy and implementation of REDD+ and broader development objectives

• Prioritize engagement with non-forest sectors

–> Requires resources and efforts additional to estimation and reporting of GHG emissions

–> Countries should integrate and combine capacity development efforts for monitoring drivers with on-going national forest monitoring for REDD+

Definitions

• Proximate/direct causes: human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon

Deforestation: commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, mining, infrastructure and urban expansion

Forest degradation: logging, fires, livestock grazing in forest, fuelwood collection and charcoal production

• Underlying/indirect causes: complex interactions of fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that are often distant from their area of impact

An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers

• Country REDD+ readiness activities – first inventory of what countries identify as relevant and important drivers

• Methods: R-PIN, R-PP, a study on proximate drivers of deforestation of 25 tropical countries (Mathews et al., 2010), CIFOR country profiles and the UNFCCC national communications

• Nominal, ordinal or ratio-scale data for 46 non-Annex I countries (78% of total forest area in 2010)

• Countries have limited on the drivers at the national level and are only just beginning efforts

THINKING beyond the canopy

Changes of Deforestation Drivers: Important for assessing historical deforestation

Using national data from 46 countries: REDD-related data and

publications

Time

Phase1 Pre

Transition

Phase4 Post

Transition

Phase2 Early

Transition

Phase3 Late

Transition

Fo

rest

Co

ver

(%)

Classification of countries by forest transition phases

Pre Early Late Post

Forest transition phases

Distribution of 99 countries: Pre: 9, early: 48, late: 33, post: 10

Validation of the forest transition model

THINKING beyond the canopy

Deforestation/degradation drivers for each continent

-39%

-35%

-13%

-11%

-2%

-57%

-36%

-2% -4% -1%

-41%

-37%

-7%

-10%

-7%

26%

62%

4% 8%

70%

9%

17%

4%

67%

20%

6% 7%

Forest degradation driver Deforestation driver

AMERICA AFRICA ASIA

Deforestation

Degradation

THINKING beyond the canopy

Changes of Deforestation Drivers

Agriculture (commercial) is 45%, agriculture (local/subsistence) 38%, mining 7%,

infrastructure 8%, urban expansion 3% and only agriculture make up 83% of total

Ratio of mining is decreasing and urban expansion is relatively increasing over time

Deforested-area ratio of deforestation drivers

Deforested area

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

pre early late post

Urban expansion

Infrastructure

Mining

Agriculture(local-slash & burn)Agriculture(commercial)

km2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

pre early late post

Distribution of 46 countries - Pre: 7, early: 23, late: 12, post: 4

(subsistence)

Indirect or underlying drivers

• Economic growth

– Based on export of primary commodities

• Population growth / Urban growth

• Demand for timber and agricultural products

• Countries (31 national REDD+ R-PPs):

– Weak forest sector governance and institutions, conflicting policies beyond forest sector and illegal activity (93%)

– Population growth (51%)

– Poverty and insecure tenure (both 48%)

Future

Forest carbon stock impact of different activities

Time

Car

bo

n s

tock

Pri

mar

y fo

rest

Deforestation

Agroforestry

Further disturbances: Prevented regrowth Fire/storm/pests

Human induced disturbance causing loss of forest: fire, clearing, selective extraction, …

Agriculture is the main deforestation driver (~ 80 %)

Major degradation drivers for LAC and Asia is logging (~70%)

Fuel-wood/charcoal are the main degradation drivers for Africa

Impact for monitoring: each deforestation/degradation process requires specific monitoring

Countries have limited data on drivers at the national level

Drivers of the “+” the carbon sinks are largely unknown

Conclusions from this study