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Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest
Degradation (REDD):Will Trees Grow on Money?”
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest
Degradation (REDD):Will Trees Grow on Money?”
Frances SeymourDirector General
Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Bogor, May 12, 2008
Frances SeymourDirector General
Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Bogor, May 12, 2008
Presentation outline:Presentation outline:
• What is CIFOR?• Why do forests
matter?• REDD – What’s the
big idea?• REDD challenges
ahead
• What is CIFOR?• Why do forests
matter?• REDD – What’s the
big idea?• REDD challenges
ahead
A quick introduction to CIFOR:A quick introduction to CIFOR:
•One of 15 centers in the CGIAR
•Headquarters in Indonesia and staff based in Brazil, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Zambia
•Research activities in more than 40 countries throughout the tropics
•One of 15 centers in the CGIAR
•Headquarters in Indonesia and staff based in Brazil, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Zambia
•Research activities in more than 40 countries throughout the tropics
CIFOR’s global research agenda:CIFOR’s global research agenda:
• Forests and climate change mitigation (REDD)
• Forests and adaptation to climate change
• Small-scale and community forestry
• Conservation and development at landscape scale
• Impacts of trade and investment on forests
• Sustainable management of production forests
• Forests and climate change mitigation (REDD)
• Forests and adaptation to climate change
• Small-scale and community forestry
• Conservation and development at landscape scale
• Impacts of trade and investment on forests
• Sustainable management of production forests
Why do forests matter?Why do forests matter?
Example of Indonesia:• 3-4% of gross domestic product (forestry, wood
products, paper)• One-fifth of the industrial sector• 9% of total export value• > $50 million/year NTFPs exports (rattan, resins)• 600,000 formal sector jobs (of which one-third
furniture)
Example of Indonesia:• 3-4% of gross domestic product (forestry, wood
products, paper)• One-fifth of the industrial sector• 9% of total export value• > $50 million/year NTFPs exports (rattan, resins)• 600,000 formal sector jobs (of which one-third
furniture)
Forests are significant for national economies
Forests are significant for national economies
Forests matter for biodiversity
Borneo < 1% of the earth’s land areaBorneo < 1% of the earth’s land area
6% of the world’s Flowering plant species Bird species Mammal species
6% of the world’s Flowering plant species Bird species Mammal species
15,430 plant records > 2,100 species
3,642 specific uses 1,449 species
119 non-substitutable
Forest biodiversity is important to local people
Field survey results(200 plots in East Kalimantan):
Field survey results(200 plots in East Kalimantan):
Forests are important for ecosystem servicesForests are important for ecosystem services
• Up to 80 % of primary energy needs met from wood fuels
• Up to 80 % of primary energy needs met from wood fuels
Forests are important for energyForests are important for energy
Bushmeat provides an important source of protein for AIDS orphans in sub-Saharan Africa
Bushmeat provides an important source of protein for AIDS orphans in sub-Saharan Africa
Forests provide safety nets for vulnerable individuals and communities
Forests provided an important source of income during the 1997-98 financial crisis in Indonesia
Forests provided an important source of income during the 1997-98 financial crisis in Indonesia
Forests are important to human health
• clean water• nutritious food• traditional medicine• disease control
• Climate change is likely to bring a higher probability of high intensity rainfall events, which in turn increase the risk of landslides
• Maintenance of forest vegetation can help stabilize the slope for some types of land movement
• Climate change is likely to bring a higher probability of high intensity rainfall events, which in turn increase the risk of landslides
• Maintenance of forest vegetation can help stabilize the slope for some types of land movement
Forests are important for climate adaptation
Forests are important for climate mitigation
• Some 20% of global emissions are from forest and landusechange
• Indonesia and Brazil now globally-significant sources of emissions due to deforestation and forest fires
• Some 20% of global emissions are from forest and landusechange
• Indonesia and Brazil now globally-significant sources of emissions due to deforestation and forest fires
Source: Adopted from PEACE (Pelangi Energi Abadi Citra Enviro) report, 2007.
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
United States China Indonesia Brazil Russia
MtCO2e
Energy Agriculture Forestry Waste
Significance of forest-based emissions(Among top five emitters)
Significance of forest-based emissions(Among top five emitters)
REDD: What’s the big idea?REDD: What’s the big idea?
“Avoided deforestation” among the cheapest options for emissions mitigation
“Avoided deforestation” among the cheapest options for emissions mitigation
• Bali Action Plan includes “Road map” to incorporating REDD in the global climate protection regime
• Bali Action Plan includes “Road map” to incorporating REDD in the global climate protection regime
Outcomes of UNFCCC COP13Outcomes of UNFCCC COP13
Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation
(REDD)
Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation
(REDD)
| | | | | | 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
C-re
mov
als
(Mto
n)
Compensatedreduction
NationalReference rate
ActualNat. emissions
Compensated reductions below an agreed baseline
Compensated reductions below an agreed baseline
Money may finally grow on trees left
standing
Money may finally grow on trees left
standing
• Assume a baseline of 3 billion tons of carbon emissions per year• Assume a reduction of 20% below the baseline• Assume a price of $5/ton of avoided carbon emissions
• = $3 billion per year
By comparison:•Development aid to the forestry sector in Indonesia over the last two decades = $1 billion cumulative•Loss to the Indonesian economy from “undocumented” timber extraction = $3 billion per year
How much money are we talking about for Indonesia?
How much money are we talking about for Indonesia?
• Research shows much forest conversion provides limited economic return
• In some cases, <$1 per ton of carbon emitted
• Research shows much forest conversion provides limited economic return
• In some cases, <$1 per ton of carbon emitted
Good investments are availableGood investments are available
• Volume of finance sufficient to shift the political economy of drivers of deforestation and degradation
• Political attention and engagement at the national level
• Alignment of the interests of multiple constituencies
• Performance-based finance
Why might REDD succeed?Why might REDD succeed?
Emissions reductions and• improved local livelihoods• improved biodiversity
conservation• improved forest
governance
Emissions reductions and• improved local livelihoods• improved biodiversity
conservation• improved forest
governance
Potential for REDD “win-wins”Potential for REDD “win-wins”
REDD challenges aheadREDD challenges ahead
• Need for “REDD readiness”: governance mechanisms and institutional capacity– To decide on strategy– To measure and monitor
change– To transfer payments
• Need to manage risks and trade-offs
• Need to establish legitimacy– Inclusive process– Equitable outcomes
• Need for “REDD readiness”: governance mechanisms and institutional capacity– To decide on strategy– To measure and monitor
change– To transfer payments
• Need to manage risks and trade-offs
• Need to establish legitimacy– Inclusive process– Equitable outcomes
REDD will require a new level of forest governance
REDD will require a new level of forest governance
• Likely trade-offs between efficiency and equity
• Likely trade-offs between efficiency and equity
Lessons from early Payments for Ecosystems Services (PES) experience: Lessons from early Payments for Ecosystems Services (PES) experience:
• …of leading to human rights violations
• …of making poor people worse off
• …of corruption• …of ineffectiveness
• …of leading to human rights violations
• …of making poor people worse off
• …of corruption• …of ineffectiveness
Need to manage REDD risks…Need to manage REDD risks…
• Concern about market mechanisms
• Concern about risks, especially to indigenous peoples
• Concern about market mechanisms
• Concern about risks, especially to indigenous peoples
REDD is still controversialREDD is still controversial
• Better data and methods• Role of markets• Managing trade-offs
• Better data and methods• Role of markets• Managing trade-offs
Discussions at “Forest Day” illuminated areas for consensus-building and research:Discussions at “Forest Day” illuminated areas for consensus-building and research:
• Indonesia: Led by the Ministry of Forestry in preparation for the Bali COP
• 14 countries have submitted plans to World Bank’s forest carbon facility
• Indonesia: Led by the Ministry of Forestry in preparation for the Bali COP
• 14 countries have submitted plans to World Bank’s forest carbon facility
National REDD processes underwayNational REDD processes underway
http://www.cifor.cgiar.orghttp://www.cifor.cgiar.org