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Monsoon phenomena
&
its progression in India 2012-13
24th July, 2012
New Delhi
Flow of Presentation
Present situation of Monsoon
Monsoon Progression in the country
State-level Monsoon scenario
El-Nino & La- Nina effects on Monsoon
Discussion on impact of deficient monsoon in cane crop
Major four Monsoon season classification
Normal Monsoon - 96 to 104 % of Long period average ( LPA*)
Excess (Rainfall) Monsoon season >104 % of LPA
Below Normal Monsoon- < 96 % but >90% of LPA
Deficit rainfall Monsoon- < 90% of LPA
When the rainfall is less than 90% of the LPA and 20-40% of the country receives
deficient rainfall ( 20% below normal), then it is termed as a drought year for the
country. In 2009, the rainfall was 78% below normal
*LPA is 50 years average (1951-2000) – 89 cm
Monsoon progression in India over last six months
Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall -1st June to 11th July, 2012 – (-)22% of LPA
(-) 36% in North West India ; (-) 22% in Central India ; (-) 27% in South
Peninsula ;(-) 13% in East & North East India.
Pre-Monsoon season (March - May)- Cumulative rainfall-1st March to 30th May,
2012 - 89.4 mm – (-)31% than L.P.A. Out of 36 met sub-divisions only 7 received
excess/normal rainfall
Winter season- Cumulative rainfall-1st January to 29th February, 2012 – 38.8 mm
– (-)5% than L.P.A. Out of 36 met sub-divisions only 10 met sub-divisions received
excess/normal rainfall
Post-Monsoon season- Cumulative rainfall - 1st October to 31st December, 2011 -
65.7 mm – (-)48% than L.P.A. Out of 36 met sub-divisions 07 met sub-divisions
received excess/normal rainfall
State-level monsoon situation……….Maharashtra
Due to subdued rainfall activity in Kolhapur region during last 2-3 days, there may be attack of white woolly
aphids in old adsali sugarcane, farmers are advised to remove lower dried leaves and apply Themate@4
kg/acre.
State-level monsoon situation……….Uttar Pradesh
State-level monsoon situation……….Karnataka
State-level monsoon situation……….Tamil Nadu
El Niño/La Niña Background
Climate Patterns in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean
It shows interactions between the atmosphere and ocean which resulted in
altering global weather and climate patterns
El Niño - Sea temperatures at the surface in the central and eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean become substantially higher than normal.
La Niña - In contrast, the sea surface temperatures in these regions become
lower than normal
Such events once initiated can last for 12 months or more
Global perspective of La Niña
Rainfall increased across western equatorial Pacific- Northern Australia/Indonesia during
December-February & in Philippines during June-August and is nearly absent across the eastern
equatorial Pacific.
Wetter than normal conditions observed during December-February over northern South America
and southern Africa, and during June-August over South Asia and southeastern Australia.
Drier than normal conditions are generally observed along coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru
and equatorial eastern Africa during December to February, and over southern Brazil and central
Argentina during June-August.
Below-normal temperatures during December-February over southeastern Africa, Japan, southern
Alaska and western/central Canada, and southeastern Brazil;
Cooler than normal conditions during June-August across India and southeastern Asia, along the
west coast of South America, across the Gulf of Guinea region, and across northern South
America and portions of central America; and warmer than normal conditions during December-
February along the Gulf coast of the United States.
La Niña on Sugar Supplies- 2012-13
The weather phenomena La Nina and El Nino are factors potentially impacting sugar
supply. La Nina tends to result in drier weather in the centre south of Brazil thereby
delaying crops, harvesting and crushing.
El Nino which follows La Nina after the second quarter gives wetter conditions potentially
impacting sucrose content.
La Nina results in heavy rains, flooding in the Asia-Pacific region and occasional drought
in Africa and South America.
Discussion on impact of Rainfall & weather phenomena
Impact at major four stages of sugarcane growth period ( i.e. germination,
grand growth period, maturity, sugar accumulation)
Acreage
Yield
Recovery
Infestation ( Mealy bug at western UP, White grub problem may crop up in Maha/
Kar)
Current situation of acreage in the country
