DELPHI METHOD

Zaid Ahmad Dept. of Library &Info. Science AMU,Aligarh

DELPHI METHOD

Delphi The Delphi method is a structured

communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

Delphi is being used as Qualitative research method.

Delphi Delphi is based on the principle that

forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets

PROCEDURE The experts answer questionnaires in two or more

rounds. After each round, a facilitator or change agent provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer.

DELPHI PROCEDURE Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stop

criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.[6]

DELPHI PROCEDURE

History The name "Delphi" derives from the

Oracle of Delphi. The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military.

History The name "Delphi" derives from the

Oracle of Delphi. The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military.

History Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional

forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or trend extrapolation, quickly became apparent in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher. It has been used ever since, together with various modifications and reformulations.

Experts were asked to give their opinion on the probability, frequency, and intensity of possible enemy attacks. Other experts could anonymously give feedback. This process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged

Key characteristics Anonymity of the participants Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their

identity is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some participants from dominating others in the process. Arguably, it also frees participants (to some extent) from their personal biases, minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo effect", allows free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments.

Structuring of information flow

The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.

Regular feedback

Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to the group leader; the Delphi method prevents it.

Role of the facilitator

The person coordinating the Delphi method is usually known as a facilitator or Leader, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out questionnaires, surveys etc. and if the panel of experts accept, they follow instructions and present their views. Responses are collected and analyzed, then common and conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not reached, the process continues through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis, and building consensus.

Applications

Use in forecasting› Public policy issues, such as economic

trends, health and education.› Development of Science and technology› Libraries

Forecast role of librarian in the IT era Identify most critical issues facing by

librarians in the 21st century Features of next generation libraries

Applications Concept/ Frame work development

› Develop a descriptive framework of elemental knowledge generation/manipulation activities.

Participants: Researchers and practitioners in the knowledge management field.

Application Policy Making

Online Delphi systems

A number of Delphi forecasts are conducted using web sites that allow the process to be conducted in real-time. For instance, the TechCast Project uses a panel of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. Another example is the Horizon Project, where educational futurists collaborate online using the Delphi method to come up with the technological advancements to look out for in education for the next few years.

Hyper Delphi For example, the policy community members

(policy-makers and experts) may interact as part of the main conference panel, while they receive inputs from a virtual community (citizens, associations etc.) involved in a side conference. These web-based variable communication structures, which he calls Hyper delphi (HD), are designed to make Delphi conferences "more fluid and adapted to the hyper textual and interactive nature of digital communication".

Conclusion Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There have

been many cases when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method it self. It must also be realized that in areas such as science and technology forecasting, the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected.

Another particular weakness of the Delphi method is that future developments are not always predicted correctly by consensus of experts. The issue of ignorance is important. If panelists are misinformed about a topic, the use of Delphi may only add confidence to their ignorance.

Conclusion Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi

method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to drug abuse.

Conclusion Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi

method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to drug abuse.

Conclusion Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi

method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to drug abuse.

Referencehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method

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