Delphi

AED 615

Q. Molina

Objectives

• Become familiar with the social science research method known as Delphi.

Prerequisite Tools

• There are no Prerequisite tools required for the Delphi Research Method

Purpose

• Delphi is a group process for eliciting, collating, and generally directing informed (expert) judgment towards a consensus on a particular topic.

Uses

• Establishing goals and priorities• Identifying the dimensions and the

attributes of a problem• Providing forecasts• Clarifying positions and delineating

differences between group members• Gathering information from a group whose

members do not meet fact-to-face and wish to retain their anonymity

Description

• Delphi is a method in which individuals focus on and debate issues anonymously.

• Typically conducted by mail or e-mail utilizing several rounds of questionnaires.

• Results of each round are collected, collated and analyzed by a design team.

• Questions for the next round are based on the analysis process.

• Generally provides convergence of opinions, but may provide the basis for disagreement.

Advantages within Delphi

• Anonymity

• More accurate representation of an individual’s feelings

• No group meetings are required.

• A large heterogeneous group may participate on an equal basis.

• Allows participants to be geographically scattered.

Limitations within Delphi

• Time may eliminate Delphi as a possibility.

• Is not useful for individuals who have difficulties reading or writing.

• High participant interest and commitment is assumed or the quantity and quality of responses will decrease with each round.

• By design Delphi does not allow for instant communication or intellectual stimulation.

Required Resources

• Level of Effort – design team requirements

• Skill Level – questionnaire written free of bias.

• Time Required – six weeks to complete 4 rounds.

Inputs

• Respondents should:– Have special experience or knowledge to share.– Represent a cross-section of opinions.– Be motivated to participate.

• Questionnaire should:– Be as short as possible– Be adapted to the language most familiar to the

participants area of expertise– Elicit useful responses at the level of abstraction

required

Tool Output

• Is generally a convergence of opinion.

• Frequency distribution

• Ranking of responses to a particular question.

Schedule for Delphi

Delbecq, et al. (1975)

The Recipe • Develop the basis for a Delphi• Design Questionnaire #1• Solicit responses for questionnaire #1• Analyze questionnaire #1• Design questionnaire #2• Solicit responses for questionnaire #2• Analyze questionnaire #2• Design questionnaire #3• Solicit responses for questionnaire #3• Analyze questionnaire #3• Design questionnaire #4• Solicit responses for questionnaire #4• Analyze questionnaire #4• Closure

Design Team Size

• Large = 12 or more people.

• Medium = 2 – 12 people.

• Individual

Audience Size

• Large = 30 or more people.

• Medium = 10 to 30 people.

• Small = Under 10 people.

Theory

• Arguments have been made to support the claim that the Delphi method is superior to conventional uses of groups in problem solving or forecasting. (Gordon and Helmer 1964)

Journal Article

• Journal of Agricultural Education Article Utilizing the Delphi Method

Bibliography

Dalkey, N. “An Experimental Study of Group Opinion.” Futures 1 (June 1969): 282-288.

Delbecq, Andre; van de Ven, Andrew; and Gustafson, David. Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi. Chicago, Ill.: Scott Foresman, 1975

Gordon, Theodore J., and Helmer, Olaf. Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study. Rand Paper P-2982. Santa Monica, CA.: Rand Corporation, September 1964

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/wcmn203.nsf/LinkView/D7B9E063A2B4FFAFCA25707E00248822EBB2EB2F9035229BCA257091000BF7A6

A Little Short of 25 – 30 Minutes