OCT 2014

Aliasghar Abbasi

Forecasting Methods

Delphi MethodReal-Time Delphi

Mohsen Bahrami

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I. History of the Methods• Conventional Delphi• Real-Time Delphi

II. Description of the methods

IV. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Methods

Table of Contents

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The modern renaissance of futures research began with the Delphi technique at RAND in early 1960s.

The RAND researchers explored the use of expert panels to address forecasting issues.

History Conventional Delphi

I never took a day off in my twenties. Not one.- Bill Gates

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The Delphi method was designed to encourage a true debate, independent of personalities.

First published Delphi study: Report on a Long-Range Forecast82 panelists participated.

History Conventional Delphi

I never took a day off in my twenties. Not one.- Bill Gates

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History Conventional Delphi

I never took a day off in my twenties. Not one.- Bill Gates

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Developed by Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in 2004.

The object was to invent a technique by which a commander could rapidly collect and synthesize opinions of field personnel, using Delphi, to help him reach a decision.

History Real-Time Delphi

The way to get started is quit talking and start doing.- Walt Disney

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Description of the Method

Section 2Conventional Delphi

Suppose a forecast for the date by which a manned Mars landing would occur.

The way to get started is quit talking and start doing.- Walt Disney

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Description of the Method

Section 2Conventional Delphi

The questions are refined by the researchers and pursued through a number of sequential questionnaires.

The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated-Gandhi

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Description of the Method

Section 2Real-Time Delphi

An on-screen form presents a series of questions to each participant, and for each.

There is only one round in Real-Time Delphi.The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated

-Gandhi

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Strengths• Ability to explore issues that require judgment

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method

Section 3Conventional Delphi

Weaknesses• Which questions can be asked to get the best result• Time consuming, expensive

Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life-Confucius

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Strengths• Speed, flexibility, lower costs• Centralization of a data bank of questions and responses

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method

Section 3Real-Time Delphi

Weaknesses• Its failure to attract most of its respondents back for re-estimation• How to motivate experts in serious argumentation

Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life-Confucius

THE END