scenarios and Foresight

Scenarios, Scenarios, Foresight, Foresight, Knowledge Knowledge PlatformsPlatforms

[email protected]@man.ac.uk

Scenarios, Foresight, Scenarios, Foresight, Knowledge PlatformsKnowledge Platforms

[email protected]@man.ac.uk

Based on two projects, mainly and Based on two projects, mainly and on three presentations:on three presentations:

1 process and results of genomics 1 process and results of genomics exerciseexercise

2 some lessons from this (as 2 some lessons from this (as cnveyed to sponsor)cnveyed to sponsor)

3 Success scenario approach 3 Success scenario approach applied to nanotechnologyapplied to nanotechnology

Part 1 “Genomics”Part 1 “Genomics” Workshop and preparatory material Workshop and preparatory material

commissioned by Research Council to commissioned by Research Council to aid selection decisions (funding aid selection decisions (funding decisions already taken - but see later)decisions already taken - but see later)

Client wanted “traditional” scenario Client wanted “traditional” scenario workshop - focusing on change in S&T workshop - focusing on change in S&T impacting on Soc sci - not on impacting on Soc sci - not on alternatives for soc sci as suchalternatives for soc sci as such

ESRC Genomics ScenariosESRC Genomics Scenarios- material from evaluation - material from evaluation

session with sponsor session with sponsor Clem BezoldClem Bezold

Institute for Alternative FuturesInstitute for Alternative Futures

Ian MilesIan MilesCentre for Research and InnovationCentre for Research and Innovation

Project OverviewProject Overview Input for Forecasts and Scenarios:Input for Forecasts and Scenarios:

• Dec. Design Meeting Dec. Design Meeting • IAF/CRIC Research (-> series of documents)IAF/CRIC Research (-> series of documents)• Interviews with 22 Experts (activists, social scientists, Interviews with 22 Experts (activists, social scientists,

scientific researchers, business professionals)scientific researchers, business professionals)

Convened January 2002 Workshop.Convened January 2002 Workshop.• Used three different “lenses” to help clarify the role of Used three different “lenses” to help clarify the role of

Social Science Research for Genomics Social Science Research for Genomics • COUNCIL group collaboration software COUNCIL group collaboration software • 24 Participants24 Participants

Key Drivers

for Genomics

Thematic

Priorities

Genomics

Applications

ScenariosPriorities for

Social

Science

4 reports prepared - fed into workshop - 4 reports prepared - fed into workshop - result was new reports and workshop report plus result was new reports and workshop report plus

LEARNING, NETWORKINGLEARNING, NETWORKING

Multiple Approaches for Multiple Approaches for Determining Priorities Determining Priorities

Design workshop -> report -> Design workshop -> report -> scenario workshop: scenario workshop:

Key Drivers of Genomics Key Drivers of Genomics1. Functionality of Genomics2. Regulation of Genomics

3. Business Forces and Beyond4. Genomics Itself

5. Politics and Geopolitics6. Demand

7. Social Attitudes8. Social Mobilization

9. Governance of Knowledge10.Events

11.Risk12.Environment

Thematic Priorities -> Themes forThematic Priorities -> Themes forSocial ScienceSocial Science

Specificities of Genomics • nature and impact of scientific activity

Science and Technology Knowledge• relationship between public and private science

Regulatory Issues• privacy and data protection

Social and Health Policy Challenges• insurability and health impacts

Interfaces Between Disciplines• effects on social and economic structures

Cultural Implications and Institutional Resources• social science in relation to natural sciences

Using Archetypal IAF Using Archetypal IAF ScenariosScenarios

4 Scenarios constructed out of variations of the Drivers:

• Genomics, Inc.

• Broken Promises

• Out of Our Control

• Genomics for All

First shot prepared before workshop, break-out groups elaborated

Social Science Research Social Science Research Priorities – How as well as WhatPriorities – How as well as What

Priorities related to Research Organizations and Process:1. Interdisciplinarity – outreach to natural

scientists2. Engaged Research – provide context for

innovation3. International Research – role of

developing world4. Conflict and Inequality – social division

and equity 5. Communication of Results – enhance

dialogue

What Social Science What Social Science Research Priorities – Research Priorities –

Priorities related to Genomics Research Issues for Social Science:1. Social Perceptions and Ethical Structures

2. Critical Analysis of Key Social Constucts

3. Business and Economics

4. International Politics and Institutions

5. Cultural Reception and Consumption Practices

6. Co-Evolution of Laws and Legal Structures

7. Food and Agricultural Applications

8. Mobilization of Groups

9. Inter-relations Between Technologies

10. Corporations, Innovation, Technology Transfer

11. Genomics Innovation and the State

Foresight and Foresight and Social Research Social Research

Priorities:Priorities:

Lessons from the Lessons from the

Genomics Scenarios ExerciseGenomics Scenarios Exercise

Types of LessonTypes of Lesson Results of the Exercise: publications and other Results of the Exercise: publications and other

outputs, specific recommendations and areas outputs, specific recommendations and areas of uncertainty or controversyof uncertainty or controversy

Lessons concerning prioritisation in genomics-Lessons concerning prioritisation in genomics-related research - related to the specific related research - related to the specific exercise, and to Foresight more generallyexercise, and to Foresight more generally

Lessons that might be applied to prioritisation Lessons that might be applied to prioritisation in (social) research more widelyin (social) research more widely

Some lessons related to the Some lessons related to the design and implementationdesign and implementation

Timing problems in terms of fit with Timing problems in terms of fit with ESRC genomics prioritisation and ESRC genomics prioritisation and selection processesselection processes

Evolution of client demands and Evolution of client demands and motivationsmotivations

Scope for closer client involvement Scope for closer client involvement in process design (design workshop in process design (design workshop issues)issues)

Some lessons related to Some lessons related to the workshop processthe workshop process

Problematic involvement of Problematic involvement of competing would-be centrescompeting would-be centres

Too few natural scientists and Too few natural scientists and industry representatives (conflict of industry representatives (conflict of dates, etc)dates, etc)

Scope for more scripted sessions?Scope for more scripted sessions?

Some lessons related to Some lessons related to the methodsthe methods

Valuable use of technological aids - Valuable use of technological aids - need for UK capabilities here?need for UK capabilities here?

Scenario methodology - need for Scenario methodology - need for development of social science development of social science analysis and exploitation of various analysis and exploitation of various methods (what linkage to existing methods (what linkage to existing professionals?)professionals?)

Impacts (just some…)Impacts (just some…)

Changed structural ideas for funding as well Changed structural ideas for funding as well as election inputsas election inputs

generated internal unease about soc sci generated internal unease about soc sci capabilities, (staff learning)capabilities, (staff learning)

led then to decision to spread funding, to add led then to decision to spread funding, to add plans for new interdisciplinary facilities, to plans for new interdisciplinary facilities, to support use of scenario methods for support use of scenario methods for communicationcommunication

Internal communication about issue, thus Internal communication about issue, thus ongoing supportongoing support

Part 2 Success Part 2 Success Scenarios:Scenarios:The example of a The example of a

nanotechnology nanotechnology scenario workshop - scenario workshop -

material used in material used in workshop (excerpts)workshop (excerpts)

Success for the UKSuccess for the UK in Nanotechnology in Nanotechnology

Applications by 2006Applications by 2006

CRICSuccess in Nanotechnologies

Why this Workshop?Why this Workshop? The Wave of Interest in NanotechnologyThe Wave of Interest in Nanotechnology Where does the UK stand?Where does the UK stand? What should the UK do?What should the UK do? What would constitute ‘Success’?What would constitute ‘Success’? What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - What are the Drivers and Shapers of, -

and Barriers to - Change?and Barriers to - Change? How could we get to Success? What How could we get to Success? What

would it look like?would it look like?

Success ScenariosSuccess Scenarios WHAT?WHAT?

Credible, optimisticCredible, optimistic Expert consensus if possibleExpert consensus if possible Informed by benchmarking and other inputsInformed by benchmarking and other inputs

WHY?WHY? ““Stretch target”Stretch target”

Shared visions, improved understandingShared visions, improved understanding Better indicators of progressBetter indicators of progress

Action pointsAction points

Previous Previous WorkshopsWorkshops

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY

IN THE UK

A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005

Commissioned by: Dr. John Taylor, Director-General of the Research

CouncilsOffice of Science and Technology

Department of Trade and Industry

Funded by: The Economic and Social Research Council

Conducted by: Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC),

University of Manchester and UMIST

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY

IN THE UK








Contents Executive Summary

1. Introduction 1.1 What would ‘success’ look like by 2005?

1.2 Developing the Scenario 1.3 The Workshop Participants

2. The 2005 Scenario and its Rationale

2.1 Technological Change by 2005 2.2 Entrepreneurship, New Business Models and Venture Capital

2.3 Content 2.4 Innovative Business Use of ICTs ...

2.5 Skilled Workers and Innovative Consumers 2.6 Importance of the Science Base

2.7 Government Action 2.7.1 Government as an Innovative... and User of ICTs

2.7.2 Government Providing the Framework for Competition 2.7.3 Government Encouraging Entrepreneurship

2.8 Indicators of Success for the UK in ICTs by 2005

3. The Economic Dimensions of the Scenario

3.1 The Distinction between Production and Diffusion 3.2 How the Contribution of ICT Production to the Economy is Measured

3.3 Estimates of the Contribution Made to the Economy by ICT Production

3.3.1 Value Added 3.3.2 Employment

3.3.3 Trade and the Balance of Payments 3.4 How the Contribution of ICT Diffusion to the Economy is Measured

3.5 Estimates of the Contribution Made to the Economy by ICT Diffusion 3.5.1 Improvements to Industry Performance

3.5.2 Lower Prices and Higher Quality Goods and Services for UK Households

4. Conclusions

BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE UK








BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE UK








6 Application Areas6 Application AreasInformaticsInformatics Drug Delivery

SystemsDrug Delivery

Systems

Tissue Engineering,

medical implants &

devices

Tissue Engineering,

medical implants &

devices

Novel Materials

Novel Materials

Sensors and actuators

Sensors and actuators

Instrumentation, tooling and metrology

Instrumentation, tooling and metrology

NN

AreaKey applications /products benchmarked

2002 2004 2008 2010

Informatics

Continued improve-ments to CMOS ccts.

Single ElectronTransistors

Quantum Computing Ccts. & Algorithms

High frequency switching

Higher bandwidth, error-free comms

weakstrong

Key enabling technologies …developing

Bottom-up, self assembly, nano 3D structures

Entangled qubitsNanowires

Nanofabrication

Novel materials, gates and

interconnects

Informatics- Nano Benchmarking and Scenario Development Map

New and developing materials

Replacing Si Molecular electronics

high performance ASICsfor consumer

products, comms.,healthcare

Many apps enabled by•smaller size•faster processing•lower power

2006

Nanofabrication

Molecular scale

electronics

Novel embedded processor design

QuantumInformation

Processing apps.

Scenario development route described

““Snapshot” Example -Snapshot” Example - InformaticsInformatics

Confidential

The Workshop will:The Workshop will: Build on these starting points Build on these starting points

to develop improved success to develop improved success scenarios to tell us:scenarios to tell us:

What will drive change?What will drive change?

What will success look like?What will success look like?

What will enable us to get there?What will enable us to get there?

How will we know we are on track?How will we know we are on track?

What do we need to do to make it happen?What do we need to do to make it happen?

Success ScenariosSuccess Scenarios Starting from the benchmarking studies and Starting from the benchmarking studies and

“snapshots” for the 6 application areas:“snapshots” for the 6 application areas: Where does the UK stand?Where does the UK stand? What does a SUCCESS SCENARIO look like?What does a SUCCESS SCENARIO look like? What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - and What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - and

Barriers to - Change?Barriers to - Change? How could we get to Success? What actions How could we get to Success? What actions

are required?are required?

Working SessionsWorking Sessions

Issues to ConsiderIssues to ConsiderCurrent State of UKCurrent State of UK Major Issues Arising for the Near Major Issues Arising for the Near

FutureFuture Any Surprises?Any Surprises? MetricsMetrics for Success and Failure for Success and Failure

6 WORKING GROUPS, FEEDBACK INTO 6 WORKING GROUPS, FEEDBACK INTO PLENARIESPLENARIES

Drivers of ChangeDrivers of Change Access to technology: Access to technology:

New knowledge in the UK and internationallyNew knowledge in the UK and internationally

Local and global markets and competition:Local and global markets and competition: demand pull from users’ demand pull from users’ appreciation of opportunities from knowledgeappreciation of opportunities from knowledge

Other issues Other issues Special features that distinguish your area ?Special features that distinguish your area ? UK’s special advantages or problems compared UK’s special advantages or problems compared

to competitors?to competitors?

What would constitute ‘Success’?What would constitute ‘Success’? IndicatorsIndicators key products and applications key products and applications impact of products on end-user performanceimpact of products on end-user performance local and global end-user markets - size and UK sharelocal and global end-user markets - size and UK share industry structure - large firms, SMEs, spin-outsindustry structure - large firms, SMEs, spin-outs business model (e.g. high value added)business model (e.g. high value added) where are the UK companies in the supply chain?where are the UK companies in the supply chain? effect on GDP/employment? And impact on inward investment?effect on GDP/employment? And impact on inward investment? our competitors, and how we compareour competitors, and how we compare where is the leading-edge research? where UK stands?where is the leading-edge research? where UK stands? other features other features

How much change by 2006?How much change by 2006?

What Enables ChangeWhat Enables Change Quality of researchQuality of research Ownership of researchOwnership of research Availability of skilled people Availability of skilled people Sources of finance Sources of finance Instrumentation, standardsInstrumentation, standards Infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities (e.g. Infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities (e.g.

fabrication facilities)fabrication facilities) Structure and organisation of industry and markets Structure and organisation of industry and markets Regulatory Environment Regulatory Environment Policies for Health Services and other public sector Policies for Health Services and other public sector

marketsmarkets Intellectual Property RegimesIntellectual Property Regimes Other issues (please add your own)Other issues (please add your own)

How do we know we are How do we know we are beating the competition?beating the competition?

Relative performance with other countries: Relative performance with other countries: UK research recognised by global firms as leading edge UK research recognised by global firms as leading edge UK firms assembling high value added patent portfoliosUK firms assembling high value added patent portfolios Venture capitalists and inward investors investing in UK Venture capitalists and inward investors investing in UK

start-upsstart-ups International collaborationsInternational collaborations End users seeking/ recognising value of UK products End users seeking/ recognising value of UK products

(market share) (market share) Availability/size of facilities in the UKAvailability/size of facilities in the UK Number of graduates and post-graduates in relevant Number of graduates and post-graduates in relevant

disciplinesdisciplines Other issues (please add your own)Other issues (please add your own)

What do we do to make it What do we do to make it happen?happen?

SSteps which need to be taken to maximise the teps which need to be taken to maximise the likelihood of your success scenarioslikelihood of your success scenarios

ResearchResearch PeoplePeople FacilitiesFacilities Finance and taxationFinance and taxation Access to technology [and international Access to technology [and international

collaboration]collaboration] Regulatory issuesRegulatory issues Other issues]Other issues]

(End of workshop (End of workshop presentation)presentation)

- much produced on fly!- much produced on fly!

June June 2002 - 2002 -

the the “output” “output”

- but - but action action

alreadyalready

Foresight.gov.uk has Foresight.gov.uk has been “refocused”been “refocused”

But issues of long-tem challenges But issues of long-tem challenges do not go awaydo not go away

And need to source and combine And need to source and combine knowledge inputs from many and knowledge inputs from many and novel sources is intensifiednovel sources is intensified

Thus scenario techniques - OF MANY Thus scenario techniques - OF MANY KINDS (some more Foresight-like) - KINDS (some more Foresight-like) - are revitalised, in business as well are revitalised, in business as well as in state, and especially in RTD.as in state, and especially in RTD.

Real End of PresentationReal End of Presentation

Thanks!Thanks!

CRICSuccess in Nanotechnologies

Economy & Finance

scenarios and Foresight